Brownlow Predictions Round 24: Judd to win, but wait there is more

[bomberboy0618]

Why is a contested posse worth less than a uncontested one?

[ossie85]

It's not, I don't think bomberboy. I think you get 3 points for every possesion, plus an additional 2 if the possesion is contested.

[bomberboy0618]

It's bb oss :).
Oh ok it was a bit odd to me.

[Usman]

It's not, I don't think bomberboy. I think you get 3 points for every possesion, plus an additional 2 if the possesion is contested.

Spot on

[meow meow]

It's a flawed system because it doesn't take the quality of the possessions into account. A Chris Masten handball never has the same effect as a 20m Joel Selwood handball. Stats only count for so much, and a players influence over a game cannot ever be properly reflected by statistics. There is some things that don't score, yet have a huge bearing on outcomes.

[bomberboy0618]

Thats why he also takes the actual performance into consideration. I would say a bit like sc he would give  momentum points. But im not sure.

[Usman]

It's a flawed system because it doesn't take the quality of the possessions into account. A Chris Masten handball never has the same effect as a 20m Joel Selwood handball. Stats only count for so much, and a players influence over a game cannot ever be properly reflected by statistics. There is some things that don't score, yet have a huge bearing on outcomes.

Thats a flawed statement, is every one of Selwoods handballs 20m? is everyone of Mastens handballs not effective? This is a points system entirely based on what would catch the eye of the umpire's. I also try and watch as much footy as i can cause i know its not perfect and it can certainly not fully represent a players performance. The umpires dont get to look at stats after the game and im not sure if they would have the mental capacity to remember if someone has hit the target 20% more than someone else. That may only be 3-4 possesions difference in effectiveness. Also there is effectiveness and effectiveness, you can miss a target and the possesion is considered ineffective or you can have a clanger possession which is also considered ineffective but to a much higher degree to the point where its actually helping the opposition. So someone could have 30 touches at 80% efficiency (24 effective possessions) but that 20% could all be clangers (6 clangers) or you could have someone with 60% efficiecny (18 effective possesions) with no clangers. who has been more effective? thats why i leave efficiency and clangers out of it, too complicated and i might aswell just use the SC scores rather than form my own opinion. Also efficiency can be decieving statistic in other ways my studies have shown a strong correlation between higher contested possessions rates = lower efficency rates, its logic really the more pressure a player is under the less likely they are to execute. meaning someone can run around all day free with high efficiency beacause he is under no presssure, or you can have a player doing all the grunt work and getting the hardball while disposing of it with a lower effiicency. What will the umpires notice more?

[Usman]

Round 4

Rich v Coll
3 D.Swan 214 (equal highest for the year with Jude Bolton Rd 2) (equal 7th highest socre ever)
2 D. Thomas 145
1 S. Pendlebury 144
Honourable mentions- Martin, Cotchin, Deledio, Sidebottom

Haw v WCE
3 L. Franklin 178
2 S. Mitchell 160
1 M. Priddis 155
Honourable mentions- Embley, Darling, Birchill

Carl v Ess
3 J. Watson 155
2 M. Murphy 126
1 C. Judd 115
Honourable mentions- endless list

Geel v Syd
3 P. Chapman 143
2 J. Kennedy 184
1 D. Wojcinski 143
Honourbale mentions- another endless list

Port v Adel
3 J. Westoff 162
2 D. Brogan 155
1 S. Thompson 138
Honourable mentions- Chaplin, Rodan, Van Berlo

GC v Melb
3 B. Moloney 173
2 C. Sylvia 165
1 J. Trengove 138
Honourable mentions- Jamar, Davey

Fre v Kang
3 M. Pavlich 196
2 N. Fyfe 170 very possible swap with swallow for 2 and 1 votes
1 A. Swallow 201
Honourable mentions- Mundy, Ballantyne

[roo boys!]

And I had Swan captain ;D

[Usman]

It's a good feeling :)

[Archer11]

Love your work Usman. Ever thought of adding X factor points in somehow?

Would be quite hard to judge as it can be a bit of a personal opinion but would help dampen the strictly statistical effect of data. Afterall the Brownlow is decided on the umps personal opinions...

Not sure how it would work maybe 10 or so points added for x factor. What you think?

[Usman]

i have finally completed and updated round 4 above the leader board is on the original post

[bomberboy0618]

Hey usman where can I see a leaderboard?

[Usman]

The orignal post has an ongoing leaderboard, im no good on computers so i dont know how to make the leaderboard sticky so that its on the top of every page under the topic.

[Alex7089]

Neither would I. Umpires don't care about juk time they will notice you more if you get 25 of your 30 touches in the second half than the other way around.