Brownlow Predictions Round 24: Judd to win, but wait there is more

[Usman]

i think murphy has a poor polling history? i could be wrong though. Selwood however doesnt and with Ablett gone and Geelong still winning could mean he snags more votes than previous years.

[Usman]

maybe im wrong murphy came 10th in the 09 brownlow with 15 votes, only 5 votes last year though

[elephants]

I think Marc had some sort of hip injury last season. He had surgery during the offseason i think??

[AFEV]

I seem to remember something like that as well. Played round 1 and actually started last year very well though. Missed R13 with a hammy but other than that I can't find anything :\

[Usman]

he did have surgery on last years off season but he still had good numbers he was one player that didnt go as i expected only polling 5 votes when i predicted him to get 11. Hope that doesnt happen again.

[eagles929406]

Murphy had no pre-season last year and had little/no impact on games last year, big improvement this year and did poll very well year before 08 in a very average year for carlton

[Usman]

your probably right he was very consistent last year but didnt have a great impact. He tended to have his best games in losing teams which didnt help his polling

[Usman]

i have done an analysis on last years brownlow and how accurate my predictions were from the scoring i use. (instead of studying for uni exams)  >:(

30% of the tiime it predicted the right player with the right amount of votes for a game
65% of the time it predicted who would poll but not necesarily how many votes they would poll
leaving 35% of the time me being completely wrong.
i have not looked at how many times it got the 3 votes right but i would say about 80-85%
but it only predicted the games exactly (who would poll the 3,2,1) about 5-10% of the time.

Not flawless but helpful i guess, also the second half seems far more accurate when i started watching a few more games (the first 12-13 rounds were purely based on going back over the stats and basing my votes entirley on their score) and actually writing down who played well when it mattered so that i could predict more accurately.

[Usman]

farkin J. Selwood my new guess has to be Pendlebury

[roo boys!]

Swallow has come into $26 after being over $101 at the start of the season ::) GUN

[Usman]

may need to re-jig my scoring for next year with this trend http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/bump-in-old-school-stats/story-e6frf9jf-1226075703407

[Usman]

Round 12

Usmans Votes
StK v WB
3   Boyd
2   Goddard
1   Mcevoy
   
Adel v WCE
3   Kerr
2   Lecras
1   Rosa

GC v Kang   
3   Wells
2   Ablett
1   Harvey

Geel v Haw   
3   Podsiadly
2   Mitchell
1   Shiels
   
Carl v BL   
3   Walker
2   Murphy
1   Judd
   
Syd v Rich   
3   Seaby
2   Martin
1   Okeefe
      
Fre v Ess   
3   Pavlich
2   Ballantyne
1   Mcpharlin

Coll v Melb   
3   Wellingham
2   Cloke
1   Pendlebury


Mads Votes
StK v WB
3   Boyd
2   Goddard
1   Mcevoy
   
Adel v WCE
3   Kerr
2   Lecras
1   Embley

GC v Kang   
3   Wells
2   Ablett
1   Harvey

Geel v Haw   
3   Podsiadly
2   Mitchell
1   Shiels
   
Carl v BL   
3   Murphy
2   Walker
1   Judd
   
Syd v Rich   
3   Seaby
2   Okeefe
1   Martin
     
Fre v Ess   
3   Pavlich
2   Mcpharlin
1   Ballantyne

Coll v Melb   
3   Wellingham
2   Cloke
1   Ball

Usman's Round 12 Leaderboard

19 M. Murphy
18 C. Judd
17 S. Pendlebury
15 J. Watson
14 J. Selwood*
13 M. Boyd
12 S. Mitchell
12 B. Moloney
11 L. Franklin
11 J. Bolton
11 A. Swallow
11 D. Thomas*

*indicates ineligable

Madskill's Round 12 Leaderboard

murphy   16-17
pendles   16
selwood*   15-16
judd   15
boyd   14
watson   12--13
goodes   12--13
buddy   12--13
moloney   12
thomas    11
cox   11
mitchell   11
thomas*   11

*indicates ineligable

[roo boys!]

I would give the 3 votes to Wells TBH.

[elephants]

Sticking with Marco Murphy :D

[Usman]

HAHA you picked the game i spent the most time analysing. i automatically gave Wells the 3 votes but then changed my mind to Ablett because his numbers were to good to deny he scored 192 against wells 162. I may change it again to 3- Wells 2- Ablett 1- Harvey or even 3- Wells 2- Harvey 1- Ablett.

Yes, kangas won the game and won easy and with such a good performance from Wells (and Harvey) it should mean he gets the 3 votes, but how many times do you see a player with the skill off finese of Ablett get 38 touches 6 clearances 8 tackles and 2 goals and not get the 3? i was working by the theory that Ablett was so good and so far ahead of everyone else on his team that the umpires will see him as basically being the GC team (if that makes sense?)

On the other hand though Wells was very good also and he always polls when he plays well he is a very eye catching player, this games votes are still pending as far as im concerned. dont be surprised if i change it most likely just swapping Wells and Ablett for the 3 and 2