reason for not starting with swan

[Jimbo_11]

okay so i dont have swan and everyone seems to think you will lose without but think about this

swan will probs avg 115 at best this year and everyone has boyd to go along with him who will also avg about that, but if you get someone lower, say pendles or bartel, they will avg 110-105  which is only like 10 less than swan ( 20 if hes captain) and save you 70-80k which you could use elsewhere to upgrade a midpricer to a premium and get an extra 20-30 points a round, all up you end up with more points for the first couple rounds than if you actually had swan AND swan is a bit overpriced and looking at him as an upgrade target, because he will go down in price, dont worry, get him later in the season, say after collingwood's second bye in rnd 13

what are your thoughts on this idea ?

[pyronerd]

it may work well, i dont really see swan going down in price all that much though, also probable the best choice for captain, in dt anyway  8)

[McRooster]

The rough analogy that you put up is fair. It is true that there will be only a five or ten point difference between Swan and his alternative, but add that up over the year and balance whether that other upgradeable could have made up the difference, probably not.
The only reason not to have Swan at the beginning is if you don't have a licence and could care less about the car, rather you are more focussed on the league win.

[Spite]

My reasoning:
If I had swan last year I would have finished top 100. (most likely)
I am not going to make that mistake again.

Also, their is more of a risk going with bartel (might cop a bigger tag?) or Pendles (maybe more of a 105 avg player) than with swans guaranteed 115 every week.

[luckyanton]

ridiculous analogy. $60k wont get you an extra 20-30 points a game in other positions. In the last two years i thought like you and didnt go with swan/ablett but rather selwood or pendlebury and it was the biggest mistake. Every time you see Swan's name with a juicy 120 you will regret not getting him and be very impatient when trying to fit him in your team.
i reckon you have to get him, hes the best player (DT wise at least) in the league and is a no-thinker locked in captain every week.

[McRooster]

ridiculous analogy. $60k wont get you an extra 20-30 points a game in other positions. In the last two years i thought like you and didnt go with swan/ablett but rather selwood or pendlebury and it was the biggest mistake. Every time you see Swan's name with a juicy 120 you will regret not getting him and be very impatient when trying to fit him in your team.
i reckon you have to get him, hes the best player (DT wise at least) in the league and is a no-thinker locked in captain every week.

Agreed, although I was trying to be more polite  ;) The only time this season Swan will not be locked in as Captain will be rnd 7/13 and barring resting/injury.

[valkorum]

Agreed, although I was trying to be more polite  ;) The only time this season Swan will not be locked in as Captain will be rnd 7/13 and barring resting/injury.

Blasphemy

[chatters24]

Dane Swan

Plays for a flag contender/top 4 team: TICK
Rarely gets tagged: TICK
Durability: TICK
Age: TICK
Position: TICK
TOG: TICK

Why would his price go down? I cant see much changing from last year! I believe he is even more than a lock than GAJ due to his great durability.

[valkorum]

Dane Swan

Plays for a flag contender/top 4 team: TICK
Rarely gets tagged: TICK
Durability: TICK
Age: TICK
Position: TICK
TOG: TICK

Why would his price go down? I cant see much changing from last year! I believe he is even more than a lock than GAJ due to his great durability.

He does get tagged but he either out-runs them or rotates via the bench to lose them.  I wonder how that is going to happen with 3 players on the bench instead of 4.  Either way - I am still selecting Swan in my team.

[chatters24]

He is rarely affected by the tag. Pendles and Didak usually get the most attention.