am I understanding the breakeven concept correctly?

[toodledock]

http://tooserious.net/?page=main&page_num=2

So Chris Judd has to score 165 or he goes down $-22,326?   
Is the breakeven of a player worked out by the Price Earnings ratio?
Movement three rounds what does this mean?

So at this stage getting Judd is not a good as he is unlikely to get 165 and thus will go down.

Say he gets like 150 or so does he still drop the whole 22g? Big props to someone who can help me out here

[ong111]

If he scores approx 165 he wont change in value.

The -$22k is if he scores his average of 114.

[evawes1]

The price is based on a average score of the past 3 rounds, so it changes each round. Thats the 3 rounds bit.

If he gets 150 he wont drop the 22g. I think the 22g is based on the expectation of what he will score this week - I think tooserious is making a prediction that Judd will score more like 110-120. If he gets 150, itll drop much less, maybe 5g. The more he exceeds or goes below his breakeven, the more his price will change.

Each player's price is a reflection of the average points scored by that player. The BE is just the score needed to maintain that price. Typically it will represent their average score, but the average changes all the time.

Its also all based on scale. Judd has more to lose because his price is high. If Ablett Jnr scores an 80, he will drop SIGNIFICANTLY because his price is so high. You will notice that a lot of rookies have negative breakevens - thats because their price doesn't reflect their average at all. Basically guaranteed to go up in price - and by a lot if they play well.

Maybe you already knew some/all of this, but just laying out what I know to answer the questions.

[toodledock]

Thanks both people mentioned stuff I didn't actually know. I understand this now and it will help me govern some trades. I think maybe if I had known about this earlier I probably wouldn't have got goodes who seems to be failing a bit anyway cheers

[evawes1]

Yeah, no problem. Its always a good idea to see which proven performers are having a bad start to the year, or in a few game slump. Their price might be undervalued, and could be a chance to jump on.

Dont worry about Goodes though, hes worth it.

[Prospector_1]

Hey Toodles, check these threads too, might be handy.

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,2155.msg10883.html#msg10883

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,2342.msg12031.html#msg12031