Junktimer's take: FWD: Mid pricers and Cheapies

[Junktimer]

Hello all, I'm gonna give my thoughts on what forward's mid pricers and cheapies amongst supercoaches should look this year.
PLEASE NOTE: All prices are based on m0nty's fanplanner.

OVERVIEW
This year in the forwards there are a few mid priced options and cheapies.  In many cases, choosing a mid priced forward is fraught with danger, as they are normally a "scores a century then scores a 20" sort of player.  For this reason, it's important that you know who to pick.  Hopefully this can help. 

STRUCTURE 
This year in the forwards I will probably go with a modest 5/1/0/4.  The reason I am likely to go this structure is because I don't think there are many good mid price options to be chosen.  However, there is a case to save money and go more economical.

MID PRICERS
My definition of a mid pricer is not by average, as many have discounts.  I believe a mid pricer is a player who is in the 250k-450k bracket.  You always have to be careful with mid pricers, and they are definitely not something i would have too many of in a team.  Many mid pricers burned coaches this year, and they have to be treated with caution, however if used correctly, they can be a revelation for coaches because they are effectively a cheap premium.

Colin Sylvia- $445,000
Colin Sylvia shows massive potential as a SC Premium.  However it's always a gutsy move to pick this guy.  And his standard deviation of 29.7 and his 6 scores under 76 in 15 games reflect his inconsistency.  However, he definitely shows signs, with 6 tons out of those 15 games.  Overall, I think as he grows, as his team grows, his consistency will increase.  MPP is a bonus, short list, most likely as a forward though.

Jarrad Waite- $444,000
Waite in my opinion is a good option for 2011.  He is not too expensive, and has good scoring potential.  Suspensions were an issue last year, but I'd much prefer suspension worries than injury issues.  Waite has never really had much injury issues, apart from his ACL tear in 09.  Also possesses a relatively unique MPP (F/B) capability.

Steele Sidebottom- $427,000
Sidey is an interesting one for coaches.  One of three Pie high scoring MPP FWD/MID along with Thomas and Didak.  However I feel Sidebottom could be the most popular out of the 3.  Showed a lot in the Grand Final, and is highly rated amongst Collingwood.  Didn't bring the house down this year in SC, but has high potential.  Turns 20 in a fortnight.  Short listed as a forward, unlikely as a mid though.

Mark LeCras- $415,600
Undoubtedly a sharp shooter, Lecras has never been a great fantasy option; and despite his ridiculous 226 in round 16, he only got one other century for the year.  Most of it probably wasn't his fault though, West Coast were terrible this year and he needs somebody to deliver it to him.  As West Coast improve, surely Lecras will.  But will they in 2011? Maybe not.  Unlikely for me.

Jared Brennan- $394,400
The #3 Draft Pick has always been touted as a super talent.  The massive midfield/forward was in the spot light during trade week and ended at Gold Coast.  He has always been full of flair, but is quite inconsistent.  1 in 2 of his games he scores below 70.  Could have a big year now that he is a senior player at a young side.  50/50, only consider as a forward.

Shaun Higgins- $394,100
Shaun Higgins started the season very well, gaining 2 tons and not scoring below 97 in the first 5 weeks.  Then his fatal flaw started to show, he is made of butter.  Only managing 11 out of the next 17 games, his scores really started to drop.  Overall an average of 78 was big let down for coaches, can he be trusted again?  Would need to tear it up pre season to be considered by me.

Mitch Morton- $389,800
For somebody who averaged 77, Morton showed quite a bit this year.  Had a stopping and starting start to the year, and his form suffered.  Was injured through most of the middle of the year.  However he came back for round 17, scoring 3 tons in the last 6 games and getting a high of 145 and a low of 70.  Could be a smoky, but unlikely.

Jason Porplyzia- $357,200
The Porpoise has had a very poor year compared to the standards he set in 2008 and 09.  His average of 70 was only sprinkled with one ton.  Is a genuinely good player, but very injury prone and not good enough IMO to be in an end product, but at an awkward price to upgrade on.  What to do, what to do?  Take the safe path and don't pick him IMO.

Patty Dangerfield- $353,500
Ah, this guy.  One of fantasy's many whipping boys, Dangerfield burned coaches who invested faith in him this year.  You can't blame them, it was his 3rd year, he was set to break out, sadly, he didn't.  Going in to his 4th year, will fantasy coaches (re)invest their faith in him?  Time will tell.  For me, I think it is unlikely, however in a few years time, it could be a different story.

Kurtley Tippett- $342,300
Big Kurtley has had a very poor year in 2010.  11 scores under 60, and a standard deviation of nearly 39 are a complete turn off.  Sucked in many, including me into selecting him in 2010, will he do it again in 2011?  There were no good reasons for him not playing well this year, and I definitely see some improvement in him.  Unlikely for me though, I don't think I could ever trust him again.

Lachie Henderson- $333,200
For a just-turned-21 KPF, Henderson has had a solid year.  As an SC player though, you could have done a lot better.  I do think he will improve, and he shows a lot of potential, but I'd wait a year or two before selecting him.  Unlikely.

Liam Jurrah- $326,600
After missing the first 15 games of the year through injury, Liam Jurrah had relatively solid last 7 games of the year, showed he has good scoring ability, accumulating 2 tons, and he is very cheap.  Should kick quite a few goals next year if he gets his body right.  50/50.

Brad Dick- $325,700
Brad Dick could make a hard decision for coaches next year, he is always hard around the ball, and works very well with Sidebottom.  In his first game back from injury, Dick rose, and he scored 124, before getting injured.  Brad Dick however is known for his ineffectiveness, he often goes through the guts but then sprays it and goes through the behind.  Sorry fellas, couldn't help myself, watch this guy though pre season.

Mitch Duncan- $263,400
I doubt many would have considered Mitch Duncan for 2011.  However I think there may be a case for him, even though he only played 8 games this year at an average of 58, Duncan is highly rated amongst Bunyip's mob.  The fellas at DT Talk predict a major increase in Duncan's performance next year, and with the recent absences at Geelong, the 19-year old could get more games next year.  MPP helps.  Could be a smoky, but still unlikely for me.

Ricky Petterd- $254,400
Petterd played the first 6 games of 2010, averaging 84.  In round 6, however a Liam Anthony-like shoulder injury stopped what could have been a break out year for the young forward.  If he is the same as the aforementioned price tag, he definitely should be short listed, however I believe there is a very good chance he will only be a FWD and will be a lot more expensive as I don't think he will get a 40% discount. 

Brendan Fevola- $250,200
Fevola has had a shocking 2010.  He may have been injured for a lot of it, but his average of 49 was simply deplorable, it came as such a shock as well after he averaged 93 in 2009.  Maybe it was inability to adapt to Brisbane.  Despite all this, he is very cheap, but very inconsistent.  You decide.  50/50 for me.

CHEAPIES
A cheapie is basically somebody who is below 250k, who isn't a rookie.  The fanplanner doesn't differentiate between rookies and cheapies and as such David Swallow is listed as a cheapie.  Cheapies are useful due to their tiny price and there potential money making ability.

Chris Knights- $246,800
Chris Knights is shaping up to be a very good bye for 2011.  Priced very cheaply, he is a good solid scorer who should average 85 if fully fit.  Though he is more of a DTer, his efficiency is ok, 57% over his whole career.  Definite short list.

Callum Wilson- $240,700
Cal Wilson has shown quite a bit in his 7 games over 2 years he has played.  In 2010, he only played 3 games and averaged 79 when he played.  Discounted heavily, as you'd imagine, he is very cheap.  Could be a nice unique, but I'm not sure if he will get consistent games.  50/50.

Ryan Gamble- $192,200
Gamble joined the Saints via the 2010 National Draft after he was not able to get a game for Geelong.  Good goalkicker, however he has never been a strong SCer.  Not quite sure what to make of him, or if he will get games, I'll watch him, but unlikely.

Paddy Veszpremi- $191,200
Paddy Veszpremi goes into 2011 as a wildcard for most SCers.  With the absence of Brad Johnson, Veszpremi could play round 1 as a medium forward for the Dogs.  Will definitely watch him, I think he has ability, 50/50 though.

Brad Miller- $173,300
The best player in the VFL didn't replicate his form in that competition in the AFL in 2010.  The five games he played were poor, but I think it was the right move to go to the Tiges.  I think he could actually play as a little decoy to J-Roo.  Don't like him as a scorer though.  Very unlikely.

[pyronerd]

again an awesome write-up JT, this one won't be a big help to me as im pretty sure on my midpricers and rookies in the forward line next year but still great nontheless  ;)

[Boomz]

Great write up as usual ;)

Sidebottom, Jurrah, Knights, Petterd & Sylvia are the ones I'm watching very closely...

[Junktimer]

thanks pyro. 

yeah i know, i had to do it for completeness

[Junktimer]

thanks BOOMZ

yeah they seem to be the pick of the bunch

[MajorLazer]

I'm looking at Sidey, but that's about it.

[Boomz]

Yep I really like Jurrah and want to squeeze him in somewhere... would be at Knights or Petrie's expense most likely. If didak doesn't look right pre-season then Sidey will replace him too.

[Junktimer]

what about brad dick? ;)

[Boomz]

I don't to squeeze him in anywhere :P

[pyronerd]

I don't to squeeze him in anywhere :P

y is he too big?  :P

[Junktimer]

often squirts one out to sidebottom.

[Boomz]

only Gilbert knows that pyro you'll have to ask him :P

[pyronerd]

only Gilbert knows that pyro you'll have to ask him :P

a picture might appear on the internet so i might not need to ask him  :P

[Boomz]

lol we'll have to wait and see :P

[pyronerd]

lol we'll have to wait and see :P

we will, or maybe dick is in the video that is rumoured to about to be released  :P