Junktimer's take: Rucks

[Junktimer]

Hello all, I'm gonna give my thoughts on what rucks amongst supercoaches should look this year.
PLEASE NOTE: All prices are based on m0nty's fanplanner.

OVERVIEW
This year in rucks as always we have our guns, and also this year there are quite a few premiums at a tasty price.  Mid price rucks are normally not a very good option, mostly due to the fact that they are not even the #1 ruck.  With the new sub rule, picking rucks correctly is imperative this year.

STRUCTURE
This year in the rucks i will probably go with a modest 1/1/0/2.  The reason I am likely to be going this because there is a few good cheap options.  However, there is more of a case to go set and forget in the rucks.

GUNS
My definition of guns are players who averaged more than 105 last year, these guys are your rock, you know they are going to be worth every cent.

Aaron Sandilands- $576,500
The massive man had a massive year in 2010, averaging 114 from 19 games.  He is now a must have for coaches after his breakout year.  14 tons out of 19 is unheard for rucks, the only modern day player to compete with that would be the Dean Cox of 2007.  Only played one full season in his career, and will probably play about 18 games this season, still worth it though for a man of his ability.  Lock him in.

PREMIUMS
Premiums are also ones you can normally bank on, whilst not as reliable as the aforementioned guns, they are a cheaper option and are imperative to all sides.  Premiums to me are those that average 90 to 105.  Below I will list those who will/should be considered.

Shane Mumford- $468,200
Big Mummy has spread his wings, leaving the Cattery for the Swans.  Increased his average by an astounding 40 points!  (From 53-93)  Got very high scoring potential, scoring 177 in round 21.  Will watch pre season how his knee is going though, as he has recently had surgery on it.  For this reason, 50/50. 

MID PRICERS
My definition of a mid pricer is not by average, as many have discounts.  I believe a mid pricer is a player who is in the 250k-450k bracket.  You always have to be careful with mid pricers, and they are definitely not something i would have too many of in a team.  Many mid pricers burned coaches this year, and they have to be treated with caution, however if used correctly, they can be a revelation for coaches because they are effectively a cheap premium.

Dean Cox- $445,000
It has shocked me that I am now referring to Dean Cox as a mid pricer, I never thought this day would come.  His average of 85 this year was much shy of his previous year averages.  And I find it hard to see him ever returning to his best.  He is now 29 years of age, and has got Naitanui and Lycett attempting to come through the ranks in the ruck division.  May upgrade to him, but unlikely.

Paddy Ryder- $433,200
Paddy Ryder had a career best average of 86 this year, and while this may sound good for a ruckman, I'm not a huge fan of him.  Only 5 centuries this year, he wasn't a consistent performer.  Another swaying factor to not picking him up IMO is the fact that he competes with David Hille for the ruck spot, he will spend some time up forward, rotating through the ruck.  May also get some sub time.  A bye in round 24 is the nail in the coffin.  Very, very unlikely for me.

Mark Jamar- $416,300
2010 for Mark Jamar saw him cement a spot in the team, have a near break out year, and earn All-Australian honours.  With an average of 82, Jamar was a solid SC player this year, earning 7 tons.  Not quite sure whether he is worth the punt, especially with the inclusion of Bobby Campbell, he may get less ruck time, may.  50/50. 

Matty Kreuzer- $415,100
The #1 Draft pick has had a very impressive start to his career.  In 2010, he averaged 82 before he went down with a season ending ACL injury.  His rehab for this injury has gone brilliantly however, part of it being riding from Melbourne to Sydney on a bike!  He is likely to play round 1, and if he does, I can only see him improving.  Short list.

Hamish McIntosh- $412,400
H-Mac is a hit out machine.  Doesn't get too much of the ball, but if he gets some hitouts to advantage (3 pts each), you know he'll get a monster score.  10 down on his 2009 average of 92, with a modest 82 this year.  Not sure how he will go with the new sub rule, and Drew Petrie and Todd Goldstein around.  Too likely to have sub time for me, unlikely.

David Hille- $403,900
David Hille has always been a serviceable second ruckman, averaging around 80 for most of his career.  Can go forward and kick a few goals as well as get hit outs and the ball, which is all you want.  Don't like his chances next year though, as I think he will be the sub for Essendon behind Paddy Ryder.  Very unlikely for me.
 
Darren Jolly- $403,600
If you were to go with a set and forget line, Darren Jolly IMO would be the ideal second ruck.  Though he took a while to adjust to the Pies team, his last half of the year was much better, accumulating 5 tons in 11 games.  I think he will improve vastly in 2011.  Short list for me.

Ben Hudson- $399,300
2010 was Ben Hudson's first year of actually being recognised as a possible SC option, averaging 79 in 21 games, not bad for a ruckman.  What is tempting about Hudson is that he is the #1 ruckman, something not always seen from somebody around his price.  Could improve his scoring next year, though I think it will be around the same as this year.  50/50.

Michael Johnson- $398,900
Mickey Johnson has been a solid scorer over the last 5 years, averaging 83.  Can have some amazing games, one being round 16 this year, scoring 65 dreamteam and 151 supercoach points.  Will most likely continue to play in a range of key position areas.  Unlikely for me, as they have Sandi and Kepler to rotate through the middle. 

Sam Jacobs- $375,500
Sam Jacobs has had a good year for the Blues, after Kreuz went down, it was a great chance for him to take responsibility, and he did so.  Going to Adelaide will increase his score IMO as he will get more time on the ground (averaged 52% TOG at Carlton).  Could be a nice unique, 50/50.

Mitchell Clark- $368,400
After a stellar 2009, Clark frustrated many with his 2010 scoring.  He was always expected to turn his form around but sadly, he never did.  Not sure on this guy, had one big year, but is still a little unproven as a good SCer.  Unlikely for me.

Nic Naitanui- $360,000
Naitanui fooled many into choosing him in 2010 from his NAB Cup form, Naitanui IMO will only start to excel as an SCer once Cox is gone, so for now I can't see too much improvement.  Unlikely for me.

Matthew Leuenberger- $346,200
The #4 draft pick has always shown boundless potential.  Leuenberger so far in his career has been strictly just a tap ruckman, but Michael Voss was quoted as saying that he will be focusing on developing Leuenberger's endurance and skills.  Could Leuenberger be another Dean Cox?  Not too sure personally, 50/50.

Kurtley Tippett- $342,300
Big Kurtley has had a very poor year in 2010.  11 scores under 60, and a standard deviation of nearly 39 are a complete turn off.  Sucked in many, including me into selecting him in 2010, will he do it again in 2011?  There were no good reasons for him not playing well this year, and I definitely see some improvement in him.  Unlikely for me though, I don't think I could ever trust him again.

Brad Ottens- $340,900
Ottens has been a very good player over the years, however his recent injuries and form have made him have very little SC value.  Averaged a very modest 67 this year, and will be 31 next year.  Not going to happen for me.

CHEAPIES
A cheapie is basically somebody who is below 250k, who isn't a rookie.  The fanplanner doesn't differentiate between rookies and cheapies and as such David Swallow is listed as a cheapie.  Cheapies are useful due to their tiny price and there potential money making ability.

Josh Fraser- $246,700
Never been a huge fan of this guy, but I'm not gonna lie, he could be good value for money next year.  At a very cheap price, he will probably get a go as Gold Coast's #1 ruck role.  Is "only" 28, could a new club revitalise him?  Smoky, 50/50 for me.

Drew Petrie- $224,500
Drew Petrie for me is a must have for next year, provided he gets over his foot injury.  Is actually very durable, only missing 1 game in 6 years before his stress fracture in his foot next year.  Proven scorer, is ridiculous value. Lock.

Bobby Campbell- $198,700
Never been much of an SC player, peaking in 2006 with an average of 2006, Bob Campbell has made a comeback to the Demons after retiring at the young age of 27.  Should get games at the Dees next year due to ossie's theory, clubs don't draft 28-year olds to sit on the pine.  Even if he does, however, he is too expensive for my liking.  Unlikely for me.

FIRST-ROUND ROOKIES
First-round rookies are those who were taken in the first 25 picks this year, and thus are more expensive than 87k.  First-round rookies can normally be taken with more confidence than your standard rookie, though this is not always the case.

Sam Day- (GC) $202,500, Style- Nick Riewoldt
Sam Day is a high-leaping tall forward who can take contested marks and is skilful on the right and left side. He represented South Australia at the under-18 championships in 2010, winning All-Australian honours.  I think m0nty may have his positioning wrong, IMO he will only be listed as a FWD.  Very expensive for a first year KPP.  Unlikely for me.

Daniel Gorringe- (GC) $167,500, Style- Paddy Ryder/Nic Naitanui
Daniel Gorringe was the standout in terms of performance across the U18s carnival. He showed himself to be a thinking ruckman, able to overcome his marginal lack of height (198cm) by leaping high and early and working on angles, and he slotted the ball down a teammate's throat more often than any other big man.  Not a huge fan of taking first year ruckman, especially at that price, would need a miracle.

NON-DEBUTING ROOKIES
Non-debuting rookies may not be rookies in AFL terms, but still maintain their basement rookies price in Supercoach.  These players have the advantage of having already played a game of AFL, and being in the system for an extra year or two.

Jamie Charman- (BRI) $106,200
Was almost a lock last year, but then succumbed to a few injuries and didn't play one game.  Averaged 86 in 2006, and if he could get anywhere near that, let alone play, that would leave coaches very happy.  Unlikely due to his amount of injuries, but will watch pre season.

Max Bailey- (HAW) $87,500
The massive man has had a terrible run with injuries.  His knees are about as stable as a Hollywood marriage.  3 reconstructions.  I feel for the guy, and hopefully for his sake (and ours) he can begin to fire in 2011.  Will watch pre season, short list.

STANDARD ROOKIES
These are the rookies who are at basement price, those who were taken in the national draft after round 1 or pre season draft.  There is a large contrast between these picks, so you have to be careful when selecting them.

Jonathon Ceglar- (COL) $87,500, Style- Hamish McIntosh
Jonathon Ceglar is a much-improved mobile ruckman who is team-oriented and sound overhead. Consistent performer for Vic Country in U18s this year averaging 13 hit-outs and three marks.  Not sure if he will get games or not in 2011, so unlikely for me.

Ayce Cordy- (WB) $87,500, Style- Dean Cox
Ayce Cordy is a mobile ruckman who can also go forward. Clean hands, both in the air and at ground level. Ruckwork is a feature of his game. AIS/AFL Academy graduate.  Hadn't played in his first two years from injury and development, but next year could be Ayce's year.  Short list.

Tom Derickx- (RIC) $87,500, Style- Paddy Ryder/David Hille
Two-metre tall ruckman with impressive strength. Managed 23 hit-outs on debut for the Claremont Tigers in May 2010, as well as a goal.  Hasn't played much footy, but is a smoky for the Tiges.  The 23-year old has the build to play senior footy right away, ability, not so sure.  50/50.

Max Gawn- (MEL) $87,500, Style- Brad Ottens/Kurt Tippett
Maxie Gawn is an athletic ruckman whose marking is his strength. Suffered a knee injury just prior to the NAB AFL U18 Championships in 2009 and missed representing Vic Metro and although he attended the 09 Draft Camp he was still in the rehab phase after the operation. Not only the tallest and heaviest at the 09 Draft Camp but had the longest arms (91cm).  Dees now have quite a strong ruck department, so not sure whether or not he will get games.  50/50.

Scott Lycett- (WCE) $87,500, Style- Matty Kreuzer
Scott Lycett is a strong-marking ruckman who is agile and super competitive. Team-oriented player who impressed with South Australia in the under-18 championships.  Can go forward, and for that reason he may be a chance to get games despite NicNat and Coxy already being there.  Short list.

Tom McDonald- (MEL) $87,500, Style- Chad Cornes
Tom McDonald is a highly rated tall forward/ruckman who hails from Edenhope in western Victoria. Travelled long distances to train and play with North Ballarat in the TAC Cup, so there's no doubting his commitment.  Will play AFL only as a forward IMO, as Melbourne have strong rucks and as he is only 194cm.  50/50.

Zac Smith- (GC) $87,500
Zac Smith is a Rockhampton-raise exciting 205cm ruck prospect.  He’s an extremely agile tall with a rare turn of speed who is equally at home overhead and or at ground level.  His outstanding 2010 was recognised by his inclusion alongside the likes of Nick Riewoldt, Sam Gilbert, Jarrod Harbrow and Dayne Beams in AFL Queensland’s Team of the Year. Smith was the only VFL player selected.  Should play round 1, looks to be a must have.

Majak Daw- (NM) $77,400, Style- Paddy Ryder
Majak Daw is an athletic and versatile tall who can play at either end and in the ruck. Exceptionally quick for his size and strong in the air. Amazing natural leap.  Learning the game and improving rapidly, booting 8 goals in the final three rounds of the TAC Cup in 2009. His 3.03sec 20m and level 13.6 beep test were impressive for a tall forward at the Victorian screening along with his standing jump of 70cm (top 14 per cent).  Is still a long way off playing though, as he only could play 3 games for senior VFL last year, the rest being in the reserves.  Unlikely, but could be used as an MPP.

Josh Jenkins- (ESS) $77,400, Style- Mitch Clark
Josh Jenkins is a towering ruckman who is blindingly fast for his size. Averaged 1.5 goals a game for Lake Boga in his VFL district.  Can't see him getting too many games with Ryder, Hille and Bellchambers all ahead of him at this stage, but he can play forward so you never know.  50/50.

Joel Tippett- (GC) $77,400
Joel Tippett had a basketball background before two years on the Brisbane rookie list before he was delisted.  Now as a 22-year old was picked up by Gold Coast in the rookie draft, he could develop into a handy forward.  IMO he will only be listed as a FWD.  Brother of Kurt.  Can't see him getting too many games in 2011.  Unlikely.

[Wes Mantooth]

Nice effort mate, although I don't think Zac Smith will play round 1... GC bye :)

[ossie85]

Josh Fraser is an interesting one for sure.

Myself I think I'll go Sandi and Mummy. Neither have any byes, so just select and don't touch for the rest of the year (injury depending).


Daw/McDonald/Day might get selected depending on MPP status

[nas]

Again well done

[Hawka]

i wana go wif a cheap ruks sandi,smith,bailey and a first rnd rook that plays from th start but if robbie cambpell is cheaper il get him

[SydneyRox]

Another great job JT

Sandi and Jolly for me, maybe Mummy if he has a good preseason.

Smith and Daw/Macdonald/Bailey

IMO the rucks are the easiest pick this year, although I am sure there will be a smokey in there somewhere, you could be right about Fraser.

[Junktimer]

Nice effort mate, although I don't think Zac Smith will play round 1... GC bye :)

true, will adjust that.

Josh Fraser is an interesting one for sure.

Myself I think I'll go Sandi and Mummy. Neither have any byes, so just select and don't touch for the rest of the year (injury depending).


Daw/McDonald/Day might get selected depending on MPP status

yeah i think it may be hard to choose the right ruck, then you might have to do a sideways trade, which is why im getting petrie.

thanks sydney and naste.

[LiveTheDream]

very good decision getting petrie JT! I think all other expensive ruckmen will just be too much of a risk and because they are so inconsistent they tend to be a waste of money.

I missed out on a lot of good scores from sandi last year by not starting with him and won't do that again. This year I changed last minute to hill/naitanui and it was a great call as both made me over 100k each when i traded them out. It was a beautiful thing to watch all my mates' 'set and forget' ruckmen like cox, clarke, jolly, hmac just plummeting in price while my cheapies were doing just as well.

Wouldn't mind squeezing fraser (the man is a #1 pick) into my side but sandi is just too good not to have.

So for me: Sandi/Petrie/Smith locked in and i'll wait for who is named round 1 for the final spot.

[Junktimer]

very good decision getting petrie JT! I think all other expensive ruckmen will just be too much of a risk and because they are so inconsistent they tend to be a waste of money.

I missed out on a lot of good scores from sandi last year by not starting with him and won't do that again. This year I changed last minute to hill/naitanui and it was a great call as both made me over 100k each when i traded them out. It was a beautiful thing to watch all my mates' 'set and forget' ruckmen like cox, clarke, jolly, hmac just plummeting in price while my cheapies were doing just as well.

Wouldn't mind squeezing fraser (the man is a #1 pick) into my side but sandi is just too good not to have.

So for me: Sandi/Petrie/Smith locked in and i'll wait for who is named round 1 for the final spot.

agreed

[MajorLazer]

Another great write-up Junk. ;D

I'm might go with Kreuzer/Ryder and Jolly. Probably will have Smith and Lycett on the bench.

[Junktimer]

Another great write-up Junk. ;D

I'm might go with Kreuzer/Ryder and Jolly. Probably will have Smith and Lycett on the bench.

thanks ML, thatd be a unique pair, not quite sure who my 4th ruck will be yet, Smitta lock  ;)

[tferrier18]

Great writeup Junky.

Half way through this year I told myself to lock in mummy for 2011 but I'm not completely sure how he'll go with Seaby returning. Mummy only started scoring well when Seaby became injured - but he did score bloody well so will he stay no.2 ruckman or get promoted? I'm not worried about the sub rule because I think Jesse White will take the fall for Sydney.

My smokey ruckman are Leunburger and Fraser.

Atm playing it safe with Sandi & Petrie though. If Charman plays I might put him as no.2 ruckman and put Petrie in the fwd line though. That'd be great value.

[Junktimer]

thanks tferrier,
mummy has had surgery and hence he will have a very interrupted pre season

[tferrier18]

Yeah wasn't it just cleaning out his knee though?

[Junktimer]

may have been, not sure.  but surgery is surgery though