Junktimer's take: MID: Guns and Premiums

[Junktimer]

Hello all, I'm gonna give my thoughts on what midfield's guns and premiums amongst supercoaches should look this year.
PLEASE NOTE: All prices are based on m0nty's fanplanner.

OVERVIEW
This year in midfield as always we have our guns, and also this year there are quite a few premiums at a tasty price.  Popular guns this year will include Brendon Goddard and Dane Swan, and many teams will have premiums Andrew Swallow and Matthew Boyd.

STRUCTURE  
This year in the midfield I will probably go with a modest 2/2/0/5.  The reason I am likely to be going this is because of a few great mid price and rookie options this year.  However, there is more of a case to go more premium heavy or on the other token to start more rookies.

GUNS
My definition of guns are players who averaged more than 105 last year, these guys are your rock, you know they are going to be worth every cent.

Brendon Goddard- $658,600
Goddard is a player to build a team around, after reaping the rewards from him this year (188 as captain ;D), I'm super confident he will consolidate his 130 point average this year, a lock.  The only thing we can be worried about is he may only be a mid next year.  Lock.

Gary Ablett jnr- $656,700
Gary Ablett I think will be no where near as popular as he was this year.  Maybe its the move to Gold Coast, maybe its the rise and rise of Swan and Goddard, whatever the reason, though he may be less popular this year, he will still deliver for you.  I think he will be a lock for round 10 next year.

Dane Swan- $641,500
Swanny's last half of the year this year showed us exactly what he is capable of.  For this reason he will be locked in as captain for many teams next year.  You can't go wrong with Swanny, and his 19 centuries and 7 scores over 140 out of 22 games reflect this.  Lock and load.

Chris Judd- $599,100
Juddy is a very consistent performer who was firing since round 4 this year.  Juddy's average of 119 this year was a true reflection of how much of a gamebreaker and a gun he is.  His 7 scores over 140 was something that was achieved only by the best.  The biggest worry is his bye in round 23, where (if you're good) you will lose him for the prelim final, for this reason I'm not quite sure where i stand with him.  50/50 for me.

Joel Selwood- $595,800
Joel Selwood has always been a consistent performer in SC, with a very nice average 118 this year, he went from great to super in SC terms.  Without the support of Ablett this year is a true test of what he is made of.  For me, Selwood will sink or swim next year, he could flourish at the opportunity, yet he could fall away as he will now cop the #1 tag.  Upgrade target.

Luke Hodge- $589,000
Luke Hodge was a lock this year after a modest and injury interrupted 09.  He proved to be the goods, and his 116 point average had many coaches vindicated.  Interestingly, Hodge had 4 games under 75 this year, but made up for this by having 8 games above 130.  Is a tad inconsistent.  On the shortlist.

Paul Chapman- $588,800
Those who picked him this year could be described as happy chappies.  Chapman had a sensational year this year, averaging 116 and playing 21 out of 22 games.  His "inevitable" hamstring injury never really came.  Nearly all Geelong premium midfielders roles this year is an unknown investment because how will they go without Ablett?  I reckon Chappy will come through, MPP is handy.  On the short list for mine.

Michael Barlow- $586,600
Michael Barlow is an interesting one for 2011.  Was undoubtedly the best cash cow of all time, averaging 116 and earning coaches over 450k.  There wasn't a dry eye when Barlow went down in Round 13.  Though he aims for a round 1 return, his pre season will be thoroughly interrupted, so I don't think he should be starting in many teams.  Could be an upgrade target.

Leigh Montagna- $580,600
Joey had a good year in 2010, but it was nothing on his 2009, where he was the second highest averaging player behind Ablett, averaging a staggering 125.  This year he "only" averaged 115, but he was a great scorer all the same.  A real gamebreaker, but can be a tad inconsistent.  Likely to be an upgrade target for me.

Daniel Cross- $576,300
I like to describe Daniel Cross as an unsung hero of SC.  A very consistent performer, he is seemingly underrated by coaches, as he was only in 5% of teams at the end of the year.  Cross at times however is actually quite a depressing player to coach, due to his love of the handball.  If he kicked a bit more, who knows what he would be?  Potential upgrade target for me.

Nick Dal Santo- $568,800
You always know where you stand or what you're gonna get with Dal.  He has always been a very consistent performer, due to probably his composure and skill.  A resounding stat is that during his whole SC career, he averages an amazing 114.6.  Over 6 years, that's a pretty mean feat.  Yet another midfielder who I may upgrade to.

Marc Murphy- $565,700
Murphy this year has been said to have a had a relatively average year.  It was never publicised, but Murphy was actually battling osteitis pubis all year.  A very consistent performer, who, since his debut has been impressive.  In my opinion, he is much like the aforementioned midfielders, very consistent and a very high scorer, ultimately you'll be fine with any of them.  Won't start with him, but could be an upgrade.

Scott Pendlebury- $559,000
Pendles has had his best year in 2011.  Wasn't in teammate Swan's league, but was a great scorer all the same and those who had the dynamic duo would most likely have had a good season.  16 centuries out of 22 is a nice feat, and he can put with a tag.  Will only improve.  Most likely get him in later in the season.

Matt Priddis- $550,100
Priddis is to be admired for his year in 2010 despite his club's gross shortcomings.  Averaging 109 in a crap team would have coaches very confident, especially because the Eagles will be hoping to improve this year.  One thing which will frustrate coaches is how much this guy handballs, had a staggering 1:2.2 K:HB ratio this year, yuck.  Still if he gets the pill, he gets the pill.  Good chance of picking this guy up mid year.

Jobe Watson- $540,900
Jobe Watson surprised me when I saw that he averaged 107, whilst he had a good year, and the best Don player by a mile, he was quite inconsistent at times for a gun.  Essendon in my opinion are going to be worse next year (sorry HP, BOOMZ and co.) and this will most likely hinder his scores.  Unlikely for me.

Matthew Boyd- $537,800
Boydo has had a fantastic year.  Whilst he is more of a DTer, his average of 106 for SC this year is a great effort.  Once underrated as a fantasy player, Boyd has stamped his authority as a gun.  Like Cross in many respects, maybe less consistent but kicks more and is more of a gamebreaker.  Short listed.

Andrew Swallow- $537,200
There will be a Swallow in nearly every team in 2011.  Though it may not be Andrew, there is definitely a big case for having both Swallow brothers in your midfield.  Swallow enjoyed a breakout season in 2010, and many believe he can only go up.  Short listed for me.

PREMIUMS
Premiums are also ones you can normally bank on, whilst not as reliable as the aforementioned guns, they are a cheaper option and are imperative to all sides.  Premiums to me are those that average 90 to 105.  Below I will list those who will/should be considered.

Bryce Gibbs- $528,200
Bryce Gibbs is a player who has always average highly during his time in the AFL.  Has very hich scoring potential and he showed this when he scored 190 against West Coast, gaining 45 possessions.  Has been rumoured into more of a midfield role this year, which I think will help his scoring.  Likely to be listed as a MID/DEF.  If MPP Short list in defence, if only MID, upgrade target.

Alan Didak- $524,200
Didak in the last few years has turned himself from a germ-like forward pocket into a consistent, balanced half forward.  Has high scoring potential, and playing in a great side always helps.  Is an MPP, (MID/FWD), and for this reason, will only really consider picking him as a forward.

Lenny Hayes- $523,300
Hayes in 2010 was nothing on the Hayes of 09.  It was a hard act to follow, and he wasn't appalling this year, but his average of 104 was nothing on his elite average of 118 in 09.  Despite this, he is a consistent performer who has the ability to turn a game on its head.  Upgrade target.

Jimmy Bartel- $516,500
While he is more a DT star, you could do a lot worse in having Bartel in your team.  He has high scoring potential, with 5 scores above 120 and 2 160s.  Bartel finished the year with 12 out of 21 of his games being a century.  6 scores below 80 is a little unnerving, but he'll deliver.  The post-Ablett phase for Geelong and how that effects Bartel will be interesting.  I'd be more inclined to take him as an upgrade target after I see how he goes at the start of the year.

Brett Deledio- $515,400
Deledio, with his added MPP defence addition this year, has been in just about every fanplanner team I have seen so far.  I think this may be because over the last 3 years, he has averaged 102.  Tends to make a few clangers, however, as shown by his poor 33% efficiency.  But will he improve as the Tigers improve?  Short listed only as defender for me.

Brent Harvey- $507,500
Boomer has been a good consistent performer this year.  The 32-year old champ is definitely getting on, but he still looks classy as ever.  Still an MPP, so he should only really be considered as a forward.  Possible upgrade target.

Kieren Jack- $506,600
Kieren Jack will be popular next year due to his very high scoring potential, something normally unseen amongst taggers.  What turns me off Jack is his occasional inconsistency and the fact that he is a tagger, a stopper.  Could make my team later on in the year.

Matty Pavlich- $502,300
In the last two years the Pav has averaged 12 shy of his first 4 years of SC averages.  I struggle to see why.  Especially this year as the Dockers got better and better.  For whatever reason, he is quite cheap for somebody of his calibre, if he could recapture his 08 form, he could be an absolute bargain.  Short list only as a forward.

James Kelly- $501,100
MPP, Kelly is a guy who I think will spend a lot more time in the midfield this year.  He has a high scoring potential, and could improve his score vastly if he kicked more than he handballs and took a few more marks (particularly contested).  Most will have one of him and Enright in their team next year.  I think he should only be considered in the defence.

Sam Mitchell- $500,100
Sammy Mitchell had a shocking start to 2010.  Many jumped on afterwards, but even then, he wasn't the same this year.  Captaincy taken off him, I'm not sure if i can see much improvent in Mitchell this year.  Unlikely.

Brady Rawlings- $490,500
I, like many, have had the image of Brady Rawlings being a hard-working journeyman who puts his nose over the ball and who lays a lot of tackles.  He probably was just that.  But this year, his game has changed, he was top 10 for possessions this year.  A very solid scorer, you can bet your nose he'll deliver.  A good unique.  However, I will not be considering as a mid. 

Brad Green- $488,200
For a premium, Brad Green surprised me when I saw only 9 centuries to his name.  This suggests, along with some poor scores that he is quite inconsistent, and while he kicks plenty of goals and takes contested marks.  I would be more inclined to take somebody younger and more consistent.  Unlikely.

Adam Goodes- $477,000
The Adam Goodes of 2010 was a shadow of the Goodsey that we have come to know and love.  Scores of 16, 27 and 62 are the reasons why he went gun to premium this year.  While he can pull out the corker, he was way too inconsistent for my liking this year.  Average a full 20 ppg less than 09, and hopefully he can retake some of that form in 2011.  At this stage, unlikely.

Lindsay Gilbee- $474,700
Gilbee plays like he was born to play supercoach.  Kicks twice as much as he handballs, takes marks, and kicks long and effective.  One of those blokes who doesn't need to get much of the pill to score a ton.  Now the reason this guy is not a 'gun' is he does not have the consistency.  Is capable of the stinker, and the corker.  More inclined to get him as a defender as there are much more options in mids.

[ossie85]

(great write up btw)

Goodes is an interesting one for me. I like his price, and does provide great flexibility

[HTM]

Brad Green- $488,200
For a premium, Brad Green surprised me when I saw only 9 centuries to his name.  This suggests, along with some poor scores that he is quite inconsistent, and while he kicks plenty of goals and takes contested marks.  I would be more inclined to take somebody younger and more consistent.  Unlikely.

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I disagree 2nd lowest score of 73... IMO one of the most consistent players in Supercoach is Marc Murphy his 2nd lowest score is 79, hmm that tells me he is pretty consistent.. where as Ryan O'Keefe is a tipical example of inconsistent 2nd lowest score 30

[Barlow 21]

Brad Green- $488,200
For a premium, Brad Green surprised me when I saw only 9 centuries to his name.  This suggests, along with some poor scores that he is quite inconsistent, and while he kicks plenty of goals and takes contested marks.  I would be more inclined to take somebody younger and more consistent.  Unlikely.

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I disagree 2nd lowest score of 73... IMO one of the most consistent players in Supercoach is Marc Murphy his 2nd lowest score is 79, hmm that tells me he is pretty consistent.. where as Ryan O'Keefe is a tipical example of inconsistent 2nd lowest score 30

+1 HTM
Green will be picked by people purely for his consistency will only 1 score below 80. He is a great 6th or 7th forward but will be more of an upgrade target.  ;)

[Junktimer]

I guess so HTM, my reasoning is purely because of only the 9 centuries but its a good point you make.  thanks for the feedback

btw he got a 40 in round 21, most consistent players dont have that

[Fletch74]

Superb JT ;)

This category is somewhat the hardest to probably pick from, as you want to get that unique over everybody else. I was surprised Swallow was considered a gun though...

[Junktimer]

thanks fletch, yeah he averaged just over 105, plunging him into gun status

[MajorLazer]

Swallow has been improving every year and looks to keep improving.

Great write up Junk. It's really helpful to have this to look at.

[Junktimer]

Swallow has been improving every year and looks to keep improving.

Great write up Junk. It's really helpful to have this to look at.

thanks major

[MajorLazer]

No problem. Hope the quality stays at this level. ;D

[bomberboy0618]

nice writeup :D

[pyronerd]

nice writeup :D

+1 fantastic write-up  ;D great information hoepfully it helps me next year  :P

[Junktimer]

nice writeup :D

+1 fantastic write-up  ;D great information hoepfully it helps me next year  :P

thanks BB and pyro

[Maca24]

 Your starting premium mids will be the difference between having a good team or a great team. some tough choices to be made..

[Junktimer]

Your starting premium mids will be the difference between having a good team or a great team. some tough choices to be made..

agreed.  do we go for MPP or not?