Junktimer's take: DEF: Guns and Premiums

[Junktimer]

Hello all, I'm gonna give my thoughts on what defence's guns and premiums amongst supercoaches should look this year.

OVERVIEW

This year in defence there is a lot of premiums at a tasty price, with the gun in Goddard.  Popular premiums include Gibbs, Deledio and Broughton. 

STRUCTURE   
This year in the backs I will probably go with a modest 3/1/2/4.  The reason I am likely to be going this is because in doing so I can save money to bolster other lines which don't have the cheap options the defence possesses.  However, there is a definitely a case for going for premium heavy in the backs.

GUNS

My definition of guns are players who averaged more than 105 last year, these guys are your rock, you know they are going to be worth every cent.

Brendon Goddard- $633,700
Goddard is a player to build a team around, after reaping the rewards from him this year (188 as captain ;D), I'm super confident he will consolidate his 130 point average this year.  Take with plenty of confidence.
Fantasy Freako: Placed equal third in both competitions.  Mind boggling!  A must have in both competitions.

PREMIUMS
Premiums are also ones you can normally bank on, whilst not as reliable as the aforementioned guns, they are a cheaper option and are imperative to all sides.  Premiums to me are those that average 90 to 105.  Below I will list those who will/should be considered.

Brian Lake- $508,700
Lake is a defensive general, he is known for taking many contested marks off the opposing team.  Lake has very high scoring potential, with 4 scores above 150.  However with that, comes with quite a few real average scores.  A low score of 38 and 6 scores below 70 will annoy coaches if repeated this year.  50/50.
Fantasy Freako: He did it in both competitions last year.  A good pick for your defence.

Bryce Gibbs- $508,300
Bryce Gibbs is a player who has always averaged highly during his time in the AFL.  Has very high scoring potential and he showed this when he scored 190 against West Coast, gaining 45 possessions.  Has been rumoured into more of a midfield role this year, which I think will help his scoring.  As he is now listed as a DEF/MID, definite short list.
Fantasy Freako: As a dual-position player, he should be one of the first defenders picked this season.

Cameron Bruce- $497,900
Cam Bruce is one who is most likely only going to be considered by coaches this year due to his new Defence status.  His age might scare some, but he hasn't shown much signs of slowing down.  I have a feeling his move to Hawthorn may be a good for his scoring.  After averaging the highest he had in 3 years in 2010, Bruce seems to be affected by how the team around is going, and the Hawkers should be up there.  Short list him.
Fantasy Freako: Impressive fantasy numbers again last year, but he's one year closer to having a fall.

Brett Deledio- $495,900
Deledio, with his added MPP defence addition this year, has been in just about every team I have seen so far.  I think this may be because over the last 3 years, he has averaged 102.  Tends to make a few clangers, however, as shown by his poor 33% efficiency.  But will he improve as the Tigers improve?  Should do well again this year though, close to a lock.
Fantasy Freako: Will only get better as the team improves around him.  A sure thing for your defence.

Graham Johncock- $493,100
I think Johncock surprised many with his average of 101 this year.  He has never really been looked like a solid premium, and is probably a little underrated.  Inaccurate this year with only 42% efficiency.  Maybe a little knock on his durability, hasn't played a full season since 2006.  You could do worse, but I'd be more inclined for him to be an upgrade target for mine.
Fantasy Freako: Finally strung two good seasons in a row.  My confidence in him is returning.

Darren Milburn- $480,400
There is no doubts on this guy's scoring abilities, takes marks, is often effective, and is in a winning side.  The one knock on him is his age,  33 is quite old to have in your Supercoach team.  With Enright at the same price, pass. 
Fantasy Freako: He's aged well, but any sign of a crack and he may be finished.

Greg Broughton- $479,800
Really like this guy, from day 1 in his career he has been scoring consistent centuries.  Didn't suffer from second year blues, and if it wasn't for an injury interrupted year, would've probably averaged more than 98.  Very popular among these forums, could be a revelation.  Definitely short list him.
Fantasy Freako: Make him a priority for your defence.  He will only get better.

Corey Enright- $477,500
Very consistent, 3 off games this year where he was heavily tagged messed his average up, and thus I believe he is a tad underpriced.  However, we did learn that Enright does not like a heavy tagged.  And the question is, are you prepared to take that risk?  Age shouldn't be too much of a factor, but I wouldn't say any more than a 50/50.
Fantasy Freako: He's one of the better defenders in fantasyland.  Scores well in both forms of the game.

Brady Rawlings- $472,000
I, like many, have had the image of Brady Rawlings being a hard-working journeyman who puts his nose over the ball and who lays a lot of tackles.  He probably was just that.  But this year, his game has changed, he was top 10 for possessions this year.  A very solid scorer, you can bet your nose he'll deliver.  Could be a good unique, upgrade target for mine.
Fantasy Freako: He looks boring but is definitely worth considering as a defender in AFL Dream Team.

Nick Malceski- $469,100
Nick Malceski had coaches in 2010 in a frenzy after an astounding year.  He proved to be one of the bargains of the year, starting at a price tag of 270k odd and averaging 96.4.  He was very durable as well, playing 22 games and obliterating his main knock by coaches of lack of durability.  Was a great scorer in 2010, but I think his value was in 2010.  Despite playing 22 games, I still doubt his durability.  I'm just not sure I can pick a premium with synthetic in his knee.  Could well prove me wrong, but it's unlikely for me.
Fantasy Freako: He's back to his best.  But he's not a bargain like last season.

Heath Scotland- $461,200
Scotland is a good well rounded player, kicks a few goals, takes marks and kicks over handballs.  A solid player who will often pull through for you, but he doesn't have a huge upside.  I can't see myself buying him due to him not being the sort of premium I want, bye in round 23 doesn't help.  Unlikely, not sold on his age.
Fantasy Freako: He can be selected in either form of the game.  A solid choice.

Lindsay Gilbee- $456,700
Gilbee plays like he was born to play Supercoach.  Kicks twice as much as he handballs, takes marks, and kicks long and effective.  One of those blokes who doesn't need to get much of the pill to score a ton.  Now the reason this guy is not a 'gun' is he does not have the consistency.  Is capable of the stinker, and the corker.  50/50.
Fantasy Freako: Is always a safe choice in defence.

Chris Newman- $450,900
Chris Newman had Supercoach's hearts in their mouth when he started the season with an abysmal 16, he wasn't even injured.  However he was to improve from there, amassing 11 tons of the next 20 games, impressive statistic there.  Despite his very poor 16, he is actually quite consistent, and has a great kick.  At this stage, I would have Deledio ahead of him, but I will watch pre season.  Short list.
Fantasy Freako: A consistent and durable defender in both fantasy competitions.  Definitely worth considering, especially in Supercoach.

Sam Gilbert $450,500
The dynamic duo (Goddard and Gilbert), worked really well for some this year.  This will need to be reassessed this year, however, due to the bye.  Sam Gilbert, in my opinion is at a tasty price this year.  Takes plenty of marks.  He showed us this year snippets of what he is capable of, let's just hope he will develop some consistency this year.  Gilbert's new MPP makes him tempting, but I'm not sure how his new forward role will go this year.  Short list him.
Fantasy Freako: Has some flaws and Roosy might move him forward, so his scores are hard to predict.

Sam Fisher- $443,500
Fisher is yet another option for Saints defenders.  I've always liked the way Sam Fisher plays.  He takes a lot of marks, albeit not many contested, often kicks over handballs and has bursts in which he will score plenty.  If he can string some consistent tons at the start of next year, jump on.  I will give him a 50/50, due to the wealth of St. Kilda defenders.
Fantasy Freako: A defender who often scores well.  A safe bet.

Paul Duffield- $441,500
Duffield for me could be a good buy.  His average of 90 this year was due to some poor games of 60, and I think he can amend these as he grows as a player.  Has a good kick:handball ratio of 2.3:1 in 2010 and has an impressive 71% efficiency.  Is likely to move into the midfield this year, which can only help.  Short list.
Fantasy Freako: His form away from home is suspect.  Keep that in mind before considering. 

Heath Shaw- $439,000
I have never owned Heath Shaw, but from all accounts I've heard is that he is a very frustrating player to own, (his player discussion is all the proof you need).  I do know he is very inconsistent, he'll pull out the 140, then get 3 70s in a row.  Has a history of inconsistency, but he may overcome it as he grows as a player.  I will definitely consider, as he had a great GF, and could become one of the senior pies this year.
Fantasy Freako: Exactly the type of defender you should be looking at.  A Shaw thing.

[Justin Bieber]

Nice list JT but did you delete your old one?

All very nice players mentioned ;). Well maybe not Heater :P.

Still, I think Hodge is a little vulnerable to not being a MPP next season and a pure centre has got to be on the cards. Didn't play much backs this season :-X.

[Junktimer]

Nice list JT but did you delete your old one?

All very nice players mentioned ;). Well maybe not Heater :P.

Still, I think Hodge is a little vulnerable to not being a MPP next season and a pure centre has got to be on the cards. Didn't play much backs this season :-X.

yeah i did, im gonna have them separate.

i think hodge is more likely than goddard to have it.  if they take both from us i will not be happy  :-\

[Justin Bieber]

I will be :P. Makes the game a little more interesting with all the best scorers in the midfield ;).

Although if they remain MPP, will push people's budgets once again :P.

[Maca24]

Bravo JT. great work. really like the list keep up the good form  :)

[FLOPITOUT1]

Bravo JT. great work. really like the list keep up the good form  :)

..i agree 8)

[Hawka]

Hodge will struggle to get back but we may be compensated with delido and gibbs

[Barlow 21]

Great WriteUp Junky! ;D
The Forum is benefiting from you being back. ;)

[Junktimer]

cheers barlow

[Fletch74]

Excellent stuff JT, look forward to the next installment. I think MPP will be the key for at least 2 defenders this year in the MID or FWD roles.

[BoredSaint]

nice JT
well said fletch, MPP will be at its most important year

[MajorLazer]

It will be more important towards the end of the season than at the start though.

[richorocks]

Chris Newman doesnt get a gig?

[nas]

well done again great stuff & provides info for the good

[Junktimer]

thanks naste and ill add newman in richo