help understanding break evens and getting the most out of cash cows

[newfreofan]

Been looking around on this site a bit for tactics and whatnot, keep finding references to 'break evens' for players and using them as a way to gauge when to get the most out of trading players. Tried doing a search on the forums but can't seem to figure them out - anyone got an explanation or a link to somewhere that explains basic strategy of when to trade how it all works?

[Fletch74]

Basically a break even is what the player has to score in order for his price to rise next week...

Therefore in reference to trading rookies, the concept is to trade them when they reach their maximum price, in other words when their break even score reaches a point where it is unlikely that they will be able to increase in price again.

For example, if you have a rookie, priced at $87,000 to start with. After 3 rounds his price will increase based on his 3 previous scores, the break even score that m0nty provides is what the player has to score next week for them to continue to rise.

Often rookies will start with negative breakevens as they are under priced for what they're scoring, but eventually that rokkie might be worth $300K and their BE might be 70, and you have to then decide whether you should use the rookie, which has now become a Cash Cow (as their value has increased) to upgrade to a premium who has fallen in price, who is just starting to find form.

An example could be upgrading players like Martin, Trengove, ar Scully into players like Ablett, Swan, Goddard, etc.

[Justin Bieber]

There use to be an explaination I wrote on a thread that explained it in a sentence. But can't find the thread :(.

In short though, It's a rolling 3 round average (1,2,3 then 2,3,4, etc) in which a player must score a certain amount of points to maintain their price. If they outscore it, they'll raise up. If they fall below that total, they'll drop in price. Knowing breakevens allow you to know when a player will fall in price while others will gain.

So to maximise profits, you trade out players who have ridicilous breakevens (just say 150 for a rookie) who has gained you 150k. Then trade him out for a fallen premium (dropped about 100k) and has a breakeven score of only 50.

EDIT: Beat me to it Fletch :P. Spent some time looking for that other thread MP made a while back.

[ossie85]

He's a smart man that Fletch.

Yeah, so a player's price changes based on their last 3 scores - so if a player scores a low score like 13, it is likely to drive their price down (and hence a high BE) for about 3 weeks, before increasing again once the 13 is out of the system.

On the other hand, if a player - like Lindsay Thomas - scores 200 out of nowhere it is likely to drive the price up for the next 3 weeks (a low BE) before falling again once the 200 is out of the 3 week cycle

EDIT: Beat my Hellopplz, we're all too damn helpful

[Fletch74]

I think we're all just too smart ;)

[Justin Bieber]

Lol ossie ;D. Why shouldn't we be smart? ;).

[LiveTheDream]

put simply, the best time to trade out a cash cow or rookie is generally when their breakeven score is higher than their season average. keeping the cows beyond that point is a risk of them dropping in value.

[Maca24]

Get them on, Fill em up and get them off  ;)

[Prospector_1]

In short though, It's a rolling 3 round average (1,2,3 then 2,3,4, etc) in which a player must score a certain amount of points to maintain their price. If they outscore it, they'll raise up. If they fall below that total, they'll drop in price. Knowing breakevens allow you to know when a player will fall in price while others will gain.

An interesting additional point is that, because prices do not change until the end of round 3, round 1 and 2 scores affect prices for a shorter time than any other score in the season. So high scores in round 1 and 2 will not lead to the same kinds of price progressions that scores in other rounds do. Equally, low round one and two scores are the ones to panic least about.

Food for thought?

[Master Q]

The big question to this is, will prices change at the end of Round 1 in 2011, or end of Round 3?

[Justin Bieber]

The big question to this is, will prices change at the end of Round 1 in 2011, or end of Round 3?

Would have to be end of round 3. Would have the prices changing like crazy otherwise.

Strange indeed Pros. I just think many people don't want to lose money early so will trade out. Extra trades will easily account for this.

[CrowsFan]

The big question to this is, will prices change at the end of Round 1 in 2011, or end of Round 3?

Why would they change when prices change? That would just be stupid

[Prospector_1]

The big question to this is, will prices change at the end of Round 1 in 2011, or end of Round 3?

Would have to be end of round 3. Would have the prices changing like crazy otherwise.

Agreed - can't get a 3 round rolling average from less than 3 rounds ...

[Barlow 21]

The big question to this is, will prices change at the end of Round 1 in 2011, or end of Round 3?

Why would they change when prices change? That would just be stupid

+1

[Master Q]

The big question to this is, will prices change at the end of Round 1 in 2011, or end of Round 3?

Why would they change when prices change? That would just be stupid

It's not up to me, just putting it out there  :-X