2011 Countdown: Tom Scully

[ossie85]

2010 Stats
Games: 21
Total Score: 1493 (Ranked 147th overall, 87th amongst midfielders)
Average Score: 71.10 (Ranked 248th overall, 129th amongst midfielders)
High: 129 (Round 7)
Low: 18 (Round 2)
Standard Deviation: 25.98
Centuries: 2 out of 21
Starting Price: $179,200
High Price: $390,800 (round 21)
Lowest Price: $179,200 (round 1)


Summary:
Scully was a key player for the Demons from the moment he debuted, with the pressure of a superstar, and the hope of a struggling team. He performed very well, and looks clearly to be a star of the future. He scored 2 centuries, and scored under 50 three times.

When people first started putting together teams at the start of the year, they had the #1 draft pick in their squads. However, as the preseason progressed, players such as Martin, Trengove, Barlow, Bastinac, Banner and Shuey seemed to be playing better, and at a cheaper price. Where they correct? In the case of choosing Barlow over him, most definitely, and others like Martin, Trengove and Bastinac scored approximately the same or slightly more. So yes, although Scully's year was good, he wasn't the best cash cow at his relatively expensive price-tag that #1 picks are given.

The Crystal Ball:
Based on last year's magic number
Price: $377,600
Position: Midfielder

I have no doubt that Scully will improve his output in 2011 as opposed to 2010. However, I do not think it will be enough to bring him into premium status, nor do I think his price will significantly improve. His average over the last half the year was just under 80, suggesting he is underpriced, but I doubt he will average over 90 next year.

Decision:
Daniel Rich is a good example of why you should generally stay away from 2nd year players - he has had more attention, and his scores have reflected that. 2nd year players will be inconsistent in general, and will not improve drastically on price. I do not think Scully will be any different, and I'd stay away and focus on Gold Coast and other youngsters, and stock up on a premium or 2.


Do people disagree? Will 2011 be Scully's break-out year?



See Gary Ablett thread here

[Blueboys]

I feel the only rookies that you could look at for a prem player next year would be Pods and Barlow (injury could be an issue). Outside chance Rockciff

Both these guys I would case as prem players if you eant to take a punt on next year.

Scully needs to be pulling 100's to be a prem pick for me. I think Rockcliff has the best chance to improve on last year. I know these 3 are at the high end of the market but they are the only 3 I would look at as prem players for next year...

[Justin Bieber]

Scully is an interesting one. Will he be warranting a tag ahead of Trengove?

He was servicable this year and should improve. But too much for a cash cow for me.

[Master Q]

Scully and no no for next year. Although he's underpriced I wouldn't pay that amount for him.

HP I think he'd get a tag Over Trengove. Trengove gets more of the ball and is better physically, but Scully is very explosive and is very good at decision making.

Ossie, may I ask, How did you figure out the estimated price like you did  as "The Crystal Ball"?

[ossie85]

For SC, the "magic number" was 5311 (approx) last year. So, simply multiply there year average by 5311 to get the price (71.10 * 5311 = approx $377,600)

[Master Q]

Wow thanks, never knew that.

Cheers Ossie

So Leigh Brown averaged 74.5, multiplied by 5311 equals an approx price of $395,669?

[Blueboys]

Wow thanks, never knew that.

Cheers Ossie

So Leigh Brown averaged 74.5, multiplied by 5311 equals an approx price of $395,669?

40k discount to his last game price then  ;D

Would the salary cap be 10 mil again  ???

[ossie85]

Wow thanks, never knew that.

Cheers Ossie

So Leigh Brown averaged 74.5, multiplied by 5311 equals an approx price of $395,669?

Yup.

The salary cap will change I think, to accommodate the 3 extra players

[SCADDICT]

Ossie you know you never get 2nd year players. Can't see Scully averaging more then about 80  next year so pass..

[Master Q]

Ossie you know you never get 2nd year players. Can't see Scully averaging more then about 80  next year so pass..

That's actually not true, there are some exceptions. Not me, but many people picked Bally and Danger this year, and I'm sure some will look at Pods and possibly Barlow depending on when he returns.

[CrowsFan]

Ossie you know you never get 2nd year players. Can't see Scully averaging more then about 80  next year so pass..

That's actually not true, there are some exceptions. Not me, but many people picked Bally and Danger this year, and I'm sure some will look at Pods and possibly Barlow depending on when he returns.

Not quite the same with those 2 Q. Balla was a mature age player so is a different prospect, the same with Broughton. Also Dangerfield was in his third year at the crows

[CFC 1979]

not sure on the salary cap. DT Talk boys suggest ( and this is for DT ) the cap will only go up $250 000 to remian in line with the clubs salary caps

that barely leaves $80 000 per extra player

some skimping on field may be required

[Hawka]

Think il wait 1 or 2 more years be4 i consider him

[Boomz]

Think il wait 1 or 2 more years be4 i consider him

Agreed.

[DazBurg]

Think il wait 1 or 2 more years be4 i consider him

Agreed.

+1