When are they ripe...?

[hawk_88]

We have had 4 rounds and it is time now to start looking at when and who of our round 1 cash cows will be cashed in and who, if you require a a double trade, would be a good option to pick up as another potential cash cow.

I think it would probably be a good idea to have a central thread to discuss these players. I will discuss those that I have been following, some because I have them, but obviously there are many others so please add your thoughts.

Barlow
Has to be the first one here. The bigger question is probably do you upgrade him at all? After 2 AWESOME first rounds, he has put in a couple of OK efforts. That being said, there is no doubt the kid has talent and he isn't going to face teams like the Cats and Saints every week and given Freo at the moment seems to be the real deal (how many times have we said this now??). I wouldn't trade him if you have to do a double trade, but if you have some spare cash and came jump to a premium in 1 trade, wait until his BE is about 75-90 if you really want to upgrade.

That being said, if he puts in another couple of 60s, his price will practically freeze for a month so I would upgrade then.

Bastinac
This kid has class. Seems like he has a decent foot and makes pretty good decisions. He has basically created himself a role in the team and has made it very difficult to drop him any time soon. With North having a couple of easier and a couple of harder games in the next 4 rounds, I would look at upgrading him before round 9 at the latest, obviously depending on how he scores. Rounds 9, 10 and 11 see North play the Dogs, Freo and the Lions respectively.

Waters
Many considered him a cash cow before the season, however he has scored very consistently and is pushing up forward often despite being listed as in defence in SC. I would back him to keep scoring at this level and even a little better if the rest of West Coast pick up their game a bit. A keeper for me at least for a while. Definitely wouldn't use a double trade to upgrade him.

Maguire
Pretty much everyone has Maguire because well, there wasn't a lot of bankable sub 150K players in defence starting in round 1 (although quite a few mid-range!!). He has shown us that he still has the agility and leap that made him so good for St Kilda and hasn't shown us any hints of why St Kilda didn't play him for so long. There have been a few people say keeper, but he will be a 70-75 player in my opinion. He should rip it up against Melbourne and if he does, give him another week or 2. if not, expect his BE to be around 60ish by the end of this round or the next and that for me means upgrade time.

Banner
Ripped it up in the preseason and round 1 but has dropped off since to the point of being dropped last round. With the past 2 rounds being poor, there isn't going to be much growth in the short term once he re-enters the side, even if he performs. Bit of a wait and see in this case. Has got the talent so don't trade him out as a dud just yet.

Peterson
There was very little chat about Peterson preseason but given the injuries of the Hawks he got a start and from there has carved out a spot in the teams best 22 (i.e. when everyone is fit). Ignoring last week's blip (which all hawthorn players seemed to have) he has been find a few possies, kicking well, tackling and the odd goal as well. Expect his price to rise for a few rounds yet. Trade round 9 or 10 at the earliest if his current form continue or even consider keeping if he is your 7th forward.

Trengove (jack)
Has been solid without being great. Good on the foot but probably doesn't get to the right places enough at the moment. Without a massive score, trade by the end of round 6.

Martin
Has been very good but his disposal has been average. With the Tigers being where they are, without some senior players being given the boot, I don't see him stepping up a great deal in the short term. 3 or 4 rounds without a big score soon.

[ELLsendon]

nice post. well done hawk_88

[TitanicHornet]

Waters is easily a keeper at this stage. He has looked quite good this year, a few wayward kicks here and there but that was to be expected as he has never been that clean a user of the ball.

News yesterday was he left the track early and headed to the locker room mid-training session. No word about a serious injury or anything but might be worth keeping an eye on.

[dajaysta]

What are your thoughts on Scully  and Rockliffe ??????????

[bundyboy]

both just starting to get into it.. i think they have plenty of upside yet - at least 3 more weeks each minumum unless they break a leg!!

[Prospector_1]

Brilliant post hawk_88!!!!!!!!

Love to see more of it, from more people.

Like this -

What are your thoughts on Scully  and Rockliffe ??? ??? ??? ?

Hey dajaysta, how 'bout you write your thoughts on 'em, in the style of hawk_88???

[sid3bysid3]

great post... it is interesting to see people thoughts on those rookies.
great for me as i have waters, banner, bastinac, martin and barlow!

i agree... banner is not going to roll out the big ones like he did preseason but i will keep him till his BE hits about 50-60. not worth trading now... im greedy, want all the $$$s i can get

waters - not a keeper in terms of all season but definately not an early cash cow. scores consistently enough for my liking but if i have the cash and a premium drops off and falls back to a 100 average i'll upgrade him.

barlow is looking like a keeper... although i may also consider upgrading him if a premium falls and i have the trades. likely to keep barlow till atleast late season.

bastinac - same as above.

i would only trade all my cash cows if i have the trades in the bank. if im hit with injuries i save a few of them as bench players so i can rely on them to cover a star if they succumb to injury. e.g. if roo went to for 5-6 weeks i would keep him

[hawk_88]

It is funny I have watched 3 Melbourne games but have felt like I have seen much more of Trengove than Scully even those statistically there isn't much of a difference. Maybe because I have Trengove in my team but probably because Scully handballs a lot, does it well, but makes you less noticeable, especially when the handballs are across half back.

From what I have seen though he puts the ball in the right places, but because they are mostly handballs a slow game will be a really slow one in terms of supercoach scores. Can't remember his past scores but I remember a 94 on the weekend which will keep his BE low for a couple of weeks so without any horrible scores, I would hold on to him for a couple more weeks and re-evaluate then.

I haven't seen Rockliff play in the season proper. Didn't watch his first match and was at the Hawks V Pies (sigh) last weekend. Has scored very well though as he did in preseason where I did see him play and thought he was great. The only concern for him is keeping a spot. He is a fringe player and with the Lions playing so well he might drop in and out of the team with injuries and suspension. With only 2 matches though too early to estimate when you should trade in.

[Samm79]

what an excellent post Hawk_88, bloody well written.

I have set a reminder to revisit it in 6 weeks and see how they all came along, if Pods and Rocky are still playing, if Richmond have won a quarter, if Waters is going to be a keeper and if Barlow is averaging 100 still!!

[CFC 1979]

anyway - i found TOOSERIOUS to be an invaluable tool for for working out when is the time to off-load rookies. weekly updated with round scores, averages and prices. Also a good tool for those unfortunate bench decisions - Hitchcok + Gumby

it's looking like the 6 - 8 game mark unless you decide the player has become a keeper - aka rich 2009

But if the cattle is not there to replace them with, it becomes a little harder

[hawk_88]

Too Serious is fantastic however it is best used as a guide along with watching the game, stats only tell half the story. The calculator is great for working out ongoing prices and allows you to input your own estimates.

6-8 seems like a good estimate for most. However the story can change very quickly though.

[rory]

silvagni seems to be getting the job done, cool under pressure, not turning the ball over like some others. Makes good decisions and he seems to have some balls.
should be worth keeping for another 2 or 3 rounds.

[hawk_88]

silvagni seems to be getting the job done, cool under pressure, not turning the ball over like some others. Makes good decisions and he seems to have some balls.
should be worth keeping for another 2 or 3 rounds.

Sadly one of the deficiencies in the Champion Data rating system is that is doesn't account for "quantity of balls". ;)

If it did Lewis would have scored 300 after the round 3 KO.

[rory]

still one of the better cash cows though.

[hawk_88]

still one of the better cash cows though.

no doubt