The Watchlist - 2025 Edition

[Mat0369]

SC is open and I am having a look at a quick draft of my team. I am also going to go through the lines and make a list of potential options that I am considering

First draft

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I don't love it, but I don't hate it. I think a few guys won't be ready for round 1 like Coleman/Gibcus, I'll go through the reasoning for my picks when I start my line posts

[Ringo]

Nice Structure. Good sitting team till we know rookies playing.

As a lions supporter I avoided Will Ashcroft mainly due to the fact of the number of mids ((Neale, Dunkley, McCluggage, Ashcroft, Fletcher and possibly Levi) that will be competing for points.

[Mat0369]

Backs

Sheezel - I have him locked in as my D1 right now, the one advantage he has over Flanders is he doesn't play in the Round 0 game or have the Round 2 bye. He is a ball magnet and should play pure mid while being able to pick him as a defender, it's a no brainer

Flanders - He had a monster finish to the season with 4 scores over 120 in his last 6 games. There are a couple question marks heading into the season, with Noble and Rioli coming into the team, where does he play? They also have a really early bye week which isn't ideal. I think he is a pass for now

Ryan - He casually averaged 130 up until his bye week with only 1 score under 105. Post bye he was nowhere near as dominant and averaged 102. Every time I've owned Ryan he has had some bad form slumps while also having a huge hot streak. Priced at 116 you don't want him to start the season cold, but he can also be an early difference maker with a fantastic bye. Right now, he is probably out of my side as I can only really afford one 600k+ defender and that's Sheezel

Whitfield - One of my fave and best picks last season, I traded him in Round 14 and he averaged a whopping 123 for the rest of the season with a low score of 97 (only one under the ton). He had a pretty good start to the season averaging 116 in the first 3 before his first, and then was a bit of a roller coaster leading up to his second bye. He is one I will target as an upgrade with GWS playing Round 0 and then the Round 2 bye. I think I learnt from last year that missing too many of those guys was a recipe for dropping down the rankings.

Zorko - He had an amazing season and outside of a couple clunkers (which he is prone to in past seasons) he was dominant and a league winner. The shift to half back allowed him to play freely and impact games, it sounds like he will stay there but another year older and with Coleman coming back I think I'll hold off. He is also another victim of the opening round fixture.

Gov - A career high 110 for Gov which came at the ripe old age of 32. Two reasons I won't be picking him. He tends to pick up injuries and missed games last year. He also hasn't had a season anywhere near this scoring in the past so it is an outlier.

Sinclair - He is an option I really like for D2. After missing round 1 and a slow start he was a monster. He had a nice mix of playing midfield some games and then also taking the kickins with Nas, so he has a nice floor each week with that role. I don't know if Nas eats into more of those defensive half duties and they look to keep him in the midfield, but he is pretty tempting at his price with a huge ceiling.

Houston - So I think he is due to play Round 1 and miss opening round with the suspension, but he also had a round 3 bye which is a slight killer. I think on that alone it is a pass and I'll look at him as a potential upgrade.

Martin - Not a fan of this pick at his price. He had a 'high floor' last year due to the amount of ball he was getting, although he is a butcher which stopped him having some monster scores in some of those games. He was also thrown around a bit in the second half of the season so it's a pass.

Clark - He is one I really liked last year and he was pretty damn consistent each week. He did have a couple of really poor scores, but more often than not he was hitting the ton and showed to be a good option next to Ryan. I don't mind him as a cheaper option with room to grow, but I like Sinclair a little bit more if I can find 30k or a couple of guys for a little less.

Ridley - He is one of the best kicks in the competition, but he has missed games the last couple of years or he has had his role screwed with resulting in some crap scores. He has a huge ceiling, but I don't think I would take the risk starting him.

Nas - Last year was his breakout season. He takes the majority of the kickins and is amazing by foot. He could take another step this year, but he may be capped by Sinclair taking some of the kickins from him. Maybe a nice upgrade option if he has a clunker or injury

Holmes - He was averaging a solid 105 around the bye before a poor few weeks at the back end of the season. They are planning to throw him around a bit, including time in the middle with Smith. He could average around that mark which would have him in that 8 to 10 range. There is scope for improvement with his age profile and potential to see impactful midfield minutes, however I think I prefer other options.

Sicily - I feel like he will play forward this year with Battle and Barrass coming over while also missing Dear and Lewis up forward. As a forward he is a definite no. Pass

Dale - When the sub score comes out, Dale averages a pretty healthy 102 on the year. He is the designated kick-in guy for the Dogs and is a key to their ball movement from defence to the forward line. 2022 he averaged around that 102 mark, so he is under priced for what he can give you each week. He is one I might consider, but there are others I'd probably pick ahead of him and hope to grab Dale at a cheaper price through the season

Blakey - A breakout season, he finished as D17 by average, but jumped up around 7 points per game from the previous season. He had a few clunkers with 4 sub 70 scores, including a 43. The key for Blakey is to avoid those real clunkers and he could jump into that tier above. He breaks lines and has the ability to turn a game which is great for SC. Personally I will hold off, I don't know if he can take that next step and I will probably look elsewhere to start he year.

Stewart - I currently have him in my starting team, but there are a few red flags with Stewart. He dominated for the majority of 2023, but last year he had a mix of issues including the tag, Guthrie eating into his kick-in dominance and an in game concussion. One way the Cats looked to beat the tag was to play him in the midfield where he attended over 80% of CBA's, on 3 separate occasions  post bye.  In that period he managed to average 109 when you take out the WC game where he injured his hamstring. The worry here is that Smith is expected to play as a permanent CB mid, that pushes Stewart back to his HB role which could see him susceptible to the tag again. Holmes is also running around back there while rotating through the midfield and Guthrie will still eat into those kick-ins killing that high floor. There is a lot of upside to the Stewart pick, you could get a top 5 defender for the price of D18, but he has burnt me in the past and do I want to get back on this ride? - EDIT: Just realised he has an awful bye due to opening round, probably a pass.

Rioli - New club, old coach, familiar role. Rioli averaged 92 last year and averaged 92 under Hardwick a couple seasons ago. With Flanders moving into a half forward/mid role there are 50 plus odd kick-ins available. You also had Sexton taking another 30 while Powell took the majority with 61. Rioli only took a total of 34 last year and if he can up that total to 60ish, thats maybe a 4 to 5 point per game boost. It gives him a nice floor, but I don't know if I would take the risk in him really breaking out and breaking the ton. He may still not average enough to be worth the move.

May - He is one I picked up on the cheap last year.  He loves an intercept mark and takes the majority of the kick-ins. It looked like a great pickup until he killed me in the Eagles game before getting injured later in the season. I wouldn't expect him to play 22 games which is a cross against his name, but he could have a Gov like season where he marks everything and with kick-in duties he gives himself a nice floor. He may be one to jump on after the inevitable injury as a D6/D7 option on the cheap.

Powell - When I looked at the kick-in numbers, you see Powell generally up there for the Suns with the opportunity to take more. He had a handful of clunkers after starting the season really well, maybe one to just wait and see since how the Suns backline situation plays out.

Vlastuin - He is always on my list with his ridiculous ceiling, but he can't seem to string it together through an entire season. Being in a crap Richmond team probably won't help him but he is one I'll keep an eye on through the season.

McKercher - If he was playing HBF he would be a lock. He was awesome from round 7 when he played averaging 106.5. Unfortunately he missed a bunch of games through that period and it looks like he is switching to the other end of the ground playing HFF and wing. I don't think he can keep up that insane average playing a different role, but it sounds like he was everywhere during the practice match and tempting.

Saad - No Newman opens up the kick-ins for Saad, maybe they go with Gov for most, but he could see an increase to his floor. Hollands is expected to slot into a small defender role next to Saad, he is pretty good defensively and may open up Saad to use his offensive game more. He averaged 103 in 2022 which shows he can score well, Newman has been the defender to own and with him out he may bounce back to a premium player.

Duggan - It sounds like he will be heavily involved in the midfield rotation for the Eagles this year. He may be slightly under-priced with an injury game in his average, but he did put up a couple of real clunkers outside of that game.  He averaged 90 in 2023 and even with a SC friendly role 95 may be his ceiling, he is still one to keep an eye on.

Rivers - Another player that played some midfield minutes last year and put up some huge scores once the move happened. With the Dees getting Trac back and Oliver having a full pre-season, I don't know how much run Rivers will actually get in that role even though it sounds like they're keen to keep him in the rotation. At his price he is one to consider, especially if he continues to be part of that CB rotation. He is one of the Dees more damaging ball users and that will help him score.

Short - I started him last year since I felt he could push to that 105 level. He has a huge game opening round and then was a disaster for me. I think something that hurts Short is that the Tigers used to retain possession from a lot of those bomb kicks forward with Lynch and Riewoldt. With both gone or barely there, these kicks are being marked as ineffective or turnovers when the opposition marks them. Richmond don't have those guys forward of centre that can win those contests consistently, so I feel like that will kill his style of game. He is popular because people are seeing the volume of kick-ins he will have with Rioli gone, but Rioli didn't really move the needle and had 34 for the season. That will be split between him and Vlaustin and if anything I think it helps Vlaustin more than Short.

Salem - I simply don't trust his body. He was a tempting starting price last year before he got injured and then I picked him up post injury before another couple of niggles. He has the ability to score well, but the best thing a player can have is durability and availability.

Roberts - He has been tipped to take the old Jake Lloyd role and be a seagull around half back. He was a great starting pick last year before he hit the wall and became a vest candidate, had an injury and then came home like a steam train. He is primed to have a potential breakout season and at his price could be too good to pass up. The two obvious issues, he starts opening round meaning an early bye and if you have Mills that's two guys on the same line missing early which could be a disaster. Right now it's a pass. - EDIT - IT feels like he just played himself into a lock. With no round 3 bye options currently in my team and at his price he should give me a good stepping stone at a discount.

Noble - 80 has been his career best, but a move to the Suns to play as an attacking HBF along with Rioli could see him increase that average, I think there are better picks around the price, but I am curious to see the role.

Perryman - He has come over to play predominantly midfield for a team that could use an in an under mid. It wasn't his forte at the Giants and he was normally a link up half back/wing guy, but with Mitchell at the end, Perryman could step into that role to help out Daicos, Pendles and co. Opening round is the killer once again - EDIT - 58% of CBA's and a 93 has him in as a stepping stone D5.

M. McGovern - I feel like he will be the kick-in vulture for the Blues. He will also be injured at some point and it may have already happened vs GWS in the practice game. Pass

Freijah - I'll be interested to see his role for the season. He has good size, speed and disposal. I think Dale limits his ceiling and he is just a young guy, but he may be one to keep an eye on if Dale misses time.

SDK - If he is the sole ruck for the Cats there is some potential there. He isn't a big ball winner or a great tap ruck, so I think it will limit his scoring potential.

Mills - injured, will early games and out of my team

Coleman - injured, will early games and out of my team

Doedee - injured, will early games and out of my team

Archie Roberts - A sample size of 4 games means he is a big risk. He is trying to lock down a wing role and seemed to score well when given an opportunity. The risk doesn't outweigh the reward with this pick.

Bowey - He had injury and form issues last year and is a bit of a yo-yo with his scoring. It sounds like McVee will miss early games with a TBC on the injury report. He may have an opportunity to score well early as a stepping stone but I'm not backing him. *Edit - He had a casual 27 touches and tied for the most kick-ins with May. He may be a sneaky mid price stepping stone but with his yo-yo scoring I probably won't pull the trigger.

Weller - Pretty cheap and expected to have a wing role for the Suns.  He is priced at a 55 average and could average 80. He presents value as a stepping stone in the cheap defender role and may be one to consider.

Milera - Between the injury risk and the sub risk I have cooled on Milera a bit. At his price he does provide great value, but there is no guarantee he is in the best 22 and that's what makes him tough to start.

Brain -  I am hearing he could get some early games, he hasn't shown much of a scoring history so far, but he may be one to keep an eye on if he plays opening round and kills it.

I won't get into the players that are Sinn and cheaper

[Mat0369]

Mids

Bont - Injured and out for a while, can't start

Butters - See Bont

Neale - I really wanted to start him last year and then he missed round 1 with an injury. He ended up having 4 scores in the 70's, an 87 and everything else was a ton including a couple of monsters. He ended up having off-season surgery on his foot which didn't even allow him to train last year. If he is fit and firing there is every chance he has an even better season which is insane to think. What kills the Neale pick is opening round and I have been trying to stay away from these guys (although it looks like I might end up with a bunch now)  *EDIT - Brisbane will move from opening round to round 3, lock and load

Daicos - He had a light pre-season but has looked dominant in all the practice matches with his ability to cover ground and win the ball in transition. He has an insane ceiling and he is susceptible to a team sending a tag his way, but the sheer amount of ball he wins means he has a very good floor for any other poor games. I had him as my M1 with Bont out, even with opening round being a hinderance.

Heeney - I haven't even considered Heeney through the off-season. He turned into a full time mid and had his first 115+ season. With the other options around and being another guy playing opening round, I am happy to look at him later in the year.

Treloar  - Calf injury, will miss the start of the season but was an interesting POD before that.

Serong - He started last season on fire before slowing down around the bye and back end of the season. He was accumulating a ton of possessions each week with good tackle numbers giving him that high floor. He is in on a shortlist of options to start the season with, but I like a couple of cheaper options ahead of him who feel under-priced in comparison.

Merrett - I had him in my starting team all summer as he has been ridiculously consistent for the last 5 years. He has had three averages of 115, one of 116 and one of 112. I was also completely oblivious that Essendon were playing in opening round and since I want to stay away from guys playing through that period he has worked his way out of my team. I probably should only start one of Daicos or Merrett and I'm leaning towards Daicos at the moment.

Dunkley - As a pure mid, Dunks will get you a 110 average by the end of the season. His style of play can lead to some monster scores, but he does have the odd clunker which drops the average. If I was to start one of him and Neale I'd lean towards Neale, but he is a pretty damn good option and one on my list to try and finish off my midfield.

Cripps - He returned to his 2022 form, had an amazing SC season and won his second Brownlow medal. Post bye he was a monster averaging 116 with back to back scores of 144. I don't know if he will ever get back to that 2018-2019 SC form, but 110 is a pretty good result. He may be one to get later in the year if he does put up a couple of those 70's in a row. I also see some value further down the pecking order and it is hard to start him.

Brayshaw - His post bye form last season really went under my radar. He averaged 116.5 including 3 straight scores of 137. If he can carry on that role and form he would be a shrewd pick at his price. Freo have a great bye so he will be on some shortlists, however I feel like I'd rather pay the extra for Serong or go with a cheaper 'value' pick.

LDU - He is one I feel is flying under the radar and maybe it's because people think they can get him at a cheaper price. There was a regression from the previous season where he averaged 113.6. Last season it was the lull after a great round 1, decent round 2 and then a 67 followed by an 88 and 87. He went on to average 113.4 after that point with a huge boom period in the middle of the season where he averaged 135.6 over a 5 week period showing off his ceiling. It might be trying to find those couple clunkers he puts up in a row, but he has the explosiveness to be the number 1 mid at the end of the season. There is also 0 reason that both he and Sheezel can't average big numbers. We have seen it before with Oliver and Petracca a couple seasons ago or even Neale and Dunks. What's probably keeping him out of my team right now is the lack of defensive rookies and the fact I can get Libba or Trac for less (and that cash seems to be pretty important with rookies right now).

Steele - I wasn't really sold on him last year and he started the first 5 rounds on fire which really hurt not having him. He eventually fell back to the pack, was a 108 mid post bye which ended up being his season average. He does have a great ceiling with his contested work and tackling and Macrae coming in to provide an inside presence may help him out, but he doesn't move the needle for me as a starting pick.

Walsh - Injuries in pre-season has meant I haven't seen much of Walsh in action to work out where he sits in the rotation. He is the one guy that can go out to the wing and be an AA player (something that Carlton lack opposite Acres) but he is so valuable around the contest with his running and ability to spread from stoppage. Cerra back and healthy has me thinking the rotation will mainly be  Cripps, Cerra, Walsh and Hewett, but I think I am okay letting it play out early until there is a clear cut look in that midfield.

Gulden - Out multiple weeks with an ankle but was out of contention playing opening round anyway.

Anderson - I really think this is the year that both Rowell and Anderson take the next step to be those 115+ players. They have both been on the cusp with their huge ceilings, but like the Suns they just fall away completely in games. Opening round has me passing on that risk, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them start the year with a bang.

Green - Out multiple weeks, probably wasn't on the radar with opening round anyway.

Crouch - One I really liked last year and he did exactly what I thought he would and averaged 105. He unfortunately had an injury just as he really was hitting his straps. His pure ball winning ability sees him as a potential 110 average player, but with the Crows getting in some new blood I don't know if he fits into the rotation on a consistent basis. Both he and Laird were playing the same spot and it killed their TOG, Laird has gone back, but Draper comes in along with Peatling and ANB which could see Crouch play that 65 to 70% TOG as a ball magnet and kill his ceiling. Pass.

Yeo - Injured but probably wasn't in consideration as a mid only this year.

Libba - Concussions ruined his season, but prior to the first head knock he was averaging 112 after an average of 116 the year before. He actually averaged 120 that year when you take out the concussion game with three scores under the ton, 5 scored of 140+ and thrived in his role. The Bulldogs midfield is injury depleted right now and Libba has a monster ceiling and should be a 110+ player if he can avoid the injuries. Considering he is under-priced and is the main man inside, I can see him averaging 120 until Bont/Treloar get back. Even then, he should still be good for that 110 which has me really wanting to pick him.

Laird - Where the value comes with Laird is he will very quickly get defensive status. It's a position he has played in the past, was an absolute ball magnet and  a premium player at the position. He did look a little shot trying to run around and defend the Lions smalls, had 0 kick-ins but still worked his way up to play as an extra mid and had 24 touches. At that price range I think I'd rather spend the money on an actual defender rather than the DPP hope with Laird.

Warner - He is a great player, but I've never seen him as a top line SC option. He is an impact player, but he is in and out of games too much either delivering a monster or a crap score.  Another opening round mid, pass.

Trac - He has barely been spoken about and I figured that's because he had the rib injury and may have been touch and go for round 1. When I heard he lined up to play on the weekend and then he started in the guts with Viney, Oliver and Gawn and has gone straight back into my team. He had 4 straight 110+ seasons including a 117 and 119 and was on 64 playing basically a quarter before he got injured during the King's Bday game. Lock and load at his price

Miller - I started him last year hoping he would bounce back to his 2021/2022 form, but it was a fairly disappointing season after a strong start. He suffered an injury in round 17 that saw him miss 5 weeks, but was a rollercoaster prior to that. Rowell and Anderson are probably the guys to buy ahead of him this year for the Suns.

Dawson - After a breakout 2023, Dawson was a disappointment last year along with the rest of the Crows midfield. Nicks struggled to find a rotation that worked, they lacked leg pace and it lead to a lot of inconsistent performances. Dawson's first 5 weeks were abysmal with an average of 81 and after a nice 6 week window he was a rollercoaster. The Crows look to be throwing their midfield around again this season with a bunch of new names. I want to see how it plays out before I commit to any of these guys. Early pass

Rowell - An average of 130 over the first 7 weeks had Rowell as the breakout player of the season, an 86 average over the last 10 saw him become a complete disaster for anyone that traded him in thinking he would maintain the rage. Like the rest of the Suns, Rowell struggled in the back half of the season and hit a wall. His game is physically taxing and he hasn't been able to string it together for a full season. After another pre-season, it feels like this may be the one that he carries through the whole season and pushes to be a top line mid. He wasn't in my team due to round 0 and with uncertainty as to when the Suns will play their make up game and an early bye, he will stay out of my side for the time being.

J. Kelly - Injuries have always been the worry with Kelly and last year was a repeat. In the games he did play, he never really got going as a consistent top line guy.  With Green missing early games he may have that pop in his scoring before inevitably getting injured again. Add in opening round to the injury history and it's a pass.

Wines - I started him last year by dropping Butters out of my squad and it bit me in the ass. I made the trade when he missed a week to get Butters back in and then Wines hit a run of good form before an injury game and had a nice run home with an average of 115 in the last 5 games. With Butters out, I think Drew may be the earlier beneficiary, but Wines could also start the season quite well. At his price, he has to be a keeper and I don't think that will be the case, pass.

Richards - A breakout season after a midfield move, Richards had some huge scores when he moved into the midfield on a more permeant basis. The Dogs midfield bats pretty deep and I feel like he is further down the pecking order of top scoring options, as a defender he would be one I maybe consider, but as a mid I don't think he pushes into that upper echelon. Pass.

Newcombe - With an average of 98.3 in back to back seasons, Newcombe seems due to break out. He has an insane ceiling, but puts up too many clunkers like his start to last year. With six scores sub 70 (and 5 of those were before the bye and early in the season), it is hard to pick him until there is some consistency in his scoring.

Rozee - Hamstring injuries limited him through a number of games last year so he is probably underpriced for what he can do (107.6 the year before). When they have a fully fit midfield he can get shifted to the half forward flank to rest and it can result in him being a little out of the game, but with Butters injured he should see some big minutes right in the guts and can produce with a high ceiling. At 520k he is one of a number of guys that could be worth starting, he is behind a couple in my pecking order so probably out of contention right now.

McCluggage - His best season has been an average of 103 and I don't know if he can break into that 110 group with guys like Dunkley, Neale and even Ashcroft in the CBA rotation. He will have a nice run of games but with too many mouths to feed he is a pass.

T. Kelly - His best season was his second year at the Cats. He got close in 2023 averaging 102, but he hasn't been able to break into the 105 range, let alone the 110. The Eagles are bad and Kelly said he is disinterested in Footy through the off-season. I don't see him being any better than what he is priced at, even though his very best is excellent. Easy pass

Taranto - He finally had that breakout to average 106.7 in 2023 and a monster 119 before the bye. The second half of the season for Taranto was poor with only 1 score over the ton (117) and last year was killed by injuries. An average of 94.5 was not a bad result all things considered and has lead to him being under-priced this year. Unfortunately the Tigers aren't very good and this could result in some poor scores as he will get the most attention. He isn't one I will start the year with, but he is one I will look at down the stretch as a potential upgrade for my M8/M9 spot.

Hewett - At sub 500k, Hewett provides great value, his issue the last couple of years has been a combination of injuries and the vest. Carlton have had too many like for like mids, Kennedy has now left which should see Hewett be that 4th mid with Cripps, Walsh and Cerra. He has been one I have picked up at the back end of the last two seasons post vests that has been fantastic down the stretch. Last year he averaged 110 over the last 6 and cost a bargain price of 410k. The year before he averaged 104 in the last 6 and cost 260k. 2022 he averaged 111 on the season when he was allowed to play the role without random vests and being dropped to the VFL for odd team balance reasons. There are better options to start around his price, but he is definitely one to keep an eye on, especially if he ends up around the 400k mark half way through the season.

Day - Injured for the start of last season, he had a slow start when he returned before exploding to average 114.2 over the next 10. He then scored a 40 and 10 in the last two games he played due to injury, resulting in him being under-priced to start this year. The big red flag with Day is his body. He already had an injury concern after a monster first half and that's the biggest risk in starting him. On the plus side, he has banked 148 and should rocket in price. He is hard to pass up right now, but it will come down to structure.

Doc - At around 490k and mid only Doc isn't really one I'm considering. He has apparently looked pretty rusty through pre-season and he doesn't have a defined role in the team which makes it hard to pick him. On the wing he doesn't move the needle and with Newman getting injured they have looked at moving Hollands to half back. He may not be in the inside mid rotation and as a half forward he probably won't score enough to be an elite pick. He could also see the vest early in the season if he is trying to work back into games and form. Right now it's a pass.

Drew - He would be an extremely expensive stepping stone. With Butters out injured, Drew could have an excellent first 5 weeks to the season. Last year he averaged 110 over the first 5 before falling away, as a consistent inside presence I wouldn't be surprised if he had a similar start to the year, but it's hard to predict when the falloff will happen and it becomes a burnt trade.

J. Daicos - He has moved to a half back role to be the distributor along with Houston, if he does get defender status he may have been a sneaky starting pick that could get a bunch of touches and score in a pretty good range for his price. Maybe one to watch opening round, but there are better options that I prefer.

Parish - IF he was 30k cheaper it would have been hard to pass him up at that price. An absolute ball magnet, but he has really battled with injury the last few seasons and is injured again.

Viney - I was surprised that his career high average is only 100, otherwise he has mainly been a mid 90's guy through his career.  At 30, I don't see him breaking out, and while he may be 'under-priced' compared to his career high, even if he gets back to that form he isn't scoring enough to be a top end guy and he isn't cheap enough to be worth it as a stepping stone. Easy pass

Danger - He was a lock for close to a decade as one of the premium players at his position, however the last 3 years Danger has battled with his body and become a mid 80's guy. His points per minute isn't bad in a lot of the games he plays, he just plays far less as the Cats try to manage his body. If he can pick up forward status part way through the season he may be a decent pick if he comes cheap enough. It's easy to do worse than Danger as the F7 that can potentially cover 2 positions if the price is right. One I'll look at later in the season, but not a starting option.

Cerra - I have had him in and out of my side all pre-season. Ignoring the 'tearing up the track' cliches, Cerra was one I looked at last year as a potential starting pick. After a disappointing start to his Carlton career, Cerra had an amazing season 2023. The most impressive of these games was the one he injured his hamstring against the Pies and was sitting on 104 at HT. He had 5 scores above 130 along with another 2 just below at 129 and 127. His ceiling was amazing and he started to be consistent week in and week out. I personally didn't start him, as while that run was amazing, he hasn't really been in that ballpark before and was priced at 600k. The risk didn't outweigh the reward and it was a good call. The other issue has been his hamstrings. The sheer volume of hamstring injuries he has had is ridiculous. I believe it was over 5 in 12 months and soft tissue injuries don't necissarily get better when the intensity goes up. The Blues sent him to Doha for an intensive training block in hopes that it will do the trick, but I still see his body as a big red flag. Worst case, as long as his body holds up you're getting a 90 average player and he is priced at around 83. Best case he comes back to the 2023 form and averages 108+ and you end up with a potential keeper. The risk is definitely worth the reward, right now I can probably only afford one of Ashcroft or Cerra and I like the Ashcroft upside more. Although I may have just talked myself into a restructure to get him in

Soligo - He had a bit of a mini breakout last year and brought an X-Factor to a one dimensional Crows midfield. He had a great game vs the Dees and had a nice 6 week stretch. Another pre-season should see some natural growth, however the Crows midfield rotation looks a little muddy and I don't think I want to risk starting him. Pass

De Goey - Injured anyway so pass

[Mat0369]

Mids 2.0

Callaghan - I started him in 2023 and he had a fantastic opening game that season as well with his ability to cover the ground. He looks like he could become one of the best wings in the comp if his body could hold up with his running power. Wings tend to not score consistently enough in SC to start. However it looks like the Giants are playing him as a CBA mid which backs up the pre-season game and resulted in a monster Round 1 score. In this role with his body size, speed and agility he could be a SC gem, particularly at his price. Now the worry is how do the Giants change the midfield rotation when Tom Green returns after their bye? Callaghan had 22 (88%) CBA's for the game which was by far number 1 for the Giants, the next best was Kelly with 18 (72%). Last year Green number 1 and involved in 80% of the Giants CBA's. Cogs was completely left out of that rotation and was good for 63% last year missing 10 games and being injured in some others. It's a really tough situation to pick as his price rise won't come until post their round 3 game to make the quick cash and I don't know if he is going to be a keeper.

W. Ashcroft - After a Norm Smith Medal last year and priced at a modest 441k, Ashcroft is one I have had locked in my side for the majority of the pre-season. He was coming off an ACL injury and took some time to get going, but once he did, he averaged 107 over the last 7 including finals. Priced at an average of 82, there is a ton of upside with this pick. His highest CBA percantage last year was 50% and he ended up finishing 3rd out of the mids in the pre-season match, ahead of McCluggage. My only worry is that with Neale, Dunks and Zorko all feasting last year, there are only so many points to go around. It could be McCluggage that takes the hit and I am hoping at worst he could be a stepping stone, although I can see him breaking out to be a 110ish option. However maybe the right play is finding the cash for Day or starting Callaghan who already has the monster in his rotation.

Hopper - Between his own injury issues and how bad Richmond are I don't think I can start him. He doesn't look like he is anywhere near the player he was with the Giants when he was at his best and his knee is largely responsible for it. Pass

H. Reid - He very well could have that big second year breakout that Daicos/Oliver have had before him. He has all the tools to impact games and is perfectly built for SC. With the Eagles being so bad, I don't know if the risk outweighs the reward and he will be a bit of a yo-yo until he has the tank to run through the midfield more consistently and rip games apart on his own. Next year is more likely going to be the season that sees a spike in his scoring, pass for now.

T. Powell and Simpkin - 2 for 1 here. Powell had a bit of a resurgence last year, particularly early after a hot start. Simpkin's year was a disaster from the get go after he was laid out by Webster in a pre-season game and never really got going. Powell had a pretty strong pre-season game and was heavily in that midfield rotation, however the team lacked Parker, Simpkin and the injured Wardlaw who will also be in that rotation. Simpkin starred in the All-Stars game winning the BOG and looks to be back to some great form at a huge discount. He could probably make up 10 to 15 points if he is that third guy in the rotation while Wardlaw is out. It's tough to pick what that midfield is going to look like outside of LDU and Sheez being the mainstays, in a timeshare both may not be great picks. Right now, Parker is the one I may take the risk with since he has the ability to play as a marking forward and hit the scoreboard unlike the other two.

Cogs - An injury filled seasons saw Cogs average 79 after back to back seasons averaging 101. He is heavily involved in their midfield rotation and way under-priced at 427k. With a lot of value in the midfield along with playing opening round, he has fallen down the pecking order. If he has a monster round 1 I think a few of us may be scrambling to get him in as a stepping stone.  EDIT - Interestingly had 0 CBA's in the Pies game and looks to be playing more half forward

Prestia - Injured again, pass

Shiel - A role change to the HBF for Shiel could see him be a valuable pick for two reasons. 1. He is priced reasonably at 400k and 2. He could pick up defender status making him a DPP option. He has often been let down by his body but can score well when fit. I would have liked to see him play a real game before committing to him, but with the bye changes he is definitely out. Maybe a sneaky sideways for an underperforming player post their bye. 

T. Mitchell - Currently injured and looks to probably be out of the 22 anyway. Pass

Bruhn - Currently injured, skip

Ginbey - Another with a position change, Ginbey is moving to half back for the Eagles and could see a bit of easy ball in the process. He scored 71 off 15 touches in the practice game without seeing a CBA. He should pick up DPP as a defender, but I don't know if he is worth locking in, even at the pretty handy price of 373k.

Blicavs - Now a KPD again, I don't see it really helping his scoring out playing as that lock down defender. SDK looks to be the preferred option in the ruck, but if that changes part way through the season he may be worth a sneaky look at a discounted price.

Peatling - If he was a forward, I probably would have locked him into my side. As a mid pick, there is better value elsewhere and I can't justify the selection. He also doesn't have a defined role with so many new faces at the Crows, the upside is fantastic though with an average of 93 in his last 6 when the vest came off (with a 40 in that batch).

Sparrow - He will be in the midfield rotation for the Dees, most likely as the 4th or 5th option after Trac, Oliver and Viney, but I don't see him scoring enough to be worth considering. Pass.

Perkins - If he is going to break out, this year makes the most sense. Year 5 seems to be the season most guys take that huge step, although he seems to be without a defined role which is a pass. One to maybe keep an eye on if other mid price options bust. Maybe one to target after the Bombers bye if he does break out as a sideways trade.

O. Hollands - He would be picked due to the DPP he will receive in round 6. Newman out leaves that role open, Boyd isn't getting a gig and it looks like Saad and Hollands are the guys to rebound off half back. His disposal can be iffy at times and he is excellent defensively. I think this frees up Saad to be more attacking and he is the one I'd look at first. Pass for now.

Mackenzie - He is going to be a gun, it's just a matter of when not if. He moves through traffic so smoothly, really similar to LDU where he just looks like he is gliding and weaving through congestion. If he was a 15 to 20 CBA per game player he is a lock, he only had 9 the other night, yet still scored 97 off 16 touches. He probably can't be a starting pick, but he is one to keep an eye on if the opportunity comes this season.

T. Dow - Richmond mids that are not rookies and not named Taranto or Prestia are 100% a pass. Anyone with the last name Dow is also going to be a butcher, pass.

Windsor - He is supposed to play HBF and with his ability to break lines and cover the ground, he could be a sneaky pick up before he gets DPP. At 320k he would need to average 90 and I don't know if he has that ability in year 2. Pass right now

Ross - A better option than Dow but he also needs to average 90 and most likely won't even crack 80. Pass.

Cumming - 2021/2022 he was a mid 90's player taking the kick-ins for the Giants and playing off HB. Moving to the wing killed his scoring along with injuries. If he moves to the HBF for the Crows and gets kick-in duty, he could be an extremely handy DPP option that is also way under-priced. He was in my team for chunks of the off-season, but he is one I will have to cull to get a stronger backline.

Lord - Sneaky pick of the mid price mids, Lord looked great when he got game time last year, has looked great through pre-season and has earned himself a best 23 spot for round 1. He is a risk for the vest and could come out of the side when some more experienced players return, but he could continue to average 80 priced at a 49. JS is the obvious risk.

[Mat0369]

Rucks

Gawn - The clear cut number 1 when healthy, he has averaged over 120 in 5 of the last 7 seasons with lows of 113 in 2022 and 104.5 in 2023. He has still played a ton of games, playing 21, 20 and 20 the last 3 seasons, so the missed games is at 2-3 a year. The wheels are bound to fall off at some point, at 33 that is when some of the past top rucks fell off (Sandi, Goldy and Cox) so history says that his output will most likely not be in that 120 range. I'd expect some regression and with a couple of cheaper options that could jump into the top tier I'm thinking I pass. It very well could bite me in the ass and this is the one I'm most nervous about

Xerri - A breakout season going from an average of 72 to 119 is huge. He is the second most expensive ruck and one of 3 over 600k. Looking at some of the top rucks in previous years, this is how they have followed up their breakout season. Gawn 118.5 in 2016 and 91.6 in 2017. English 128 in 2023 and 108 in 2024. Marshall 110 in 2019 and 103.7 in 2020. Witts 109.9 in 2022 and 106 in 2023. Darcy 118 in 2021 and 102 in 2022. Briggs 108.9 in 2023 and 95.8 in 2024. Goldy 113 in 2011 and 93 in 2012. Grundy is the only one to really buck the trend with back to back 130 seasons. The stats say that he will crash back to the pack and picking him at that price tag is a really difficult thing to do. Currently it's a pass.

Marshall - The 600k option I felt best about, Marshall has played 23 games in 2023 and 2024 while averaging 114.3 and 112. He is pretty consistent, was cheaper than Gawn and Xerri with 0 competition for his spot. Unfortunately he has had some injuries through pre-season and there was talk of him playing more forward, especially with King out early. A rookie in Harry Boyd will then start with the ruck duties and Marshall would be the second ruck and in turn it would tank his scoring. Between the injuries and the forward talk it has seen him come out of my side. If he is named as a sole ruck for round 1, it will be tempting to slot him back in.

Nank - The quiet achiever and the POD to start. Nank ended up averaging 110 last year which was a career high after increasing his average 8 points the year before to average 104.3. He has a great ceiling and went on a run of games last year where he averaged 126 in that 8 game stretch. He is currently in 3% of teams and could be a great starting option with the intention to move to the flex. The issue is going to be if he can stay fit and not miss games.

English - A monster 2023 before he regressed back to numbers closer to his 2022 last year. He had a great first 8 weeks last year before he hit a form slump, some injuries and just looked off when watching him play. It could have been the contract weighing on him, but he was getting pushed around too easily by the bigger rucks and looked like the old English. It's very likely that 2023 was an outlier in his career, but I think with the uncertainty around the position an average of 108 with a potential 120+ ceiling is worth taking the punt on. Currently in as my R1 but I am a little worried about it.

Witts -  He will probably average around the 105 to 108 range, which is pretty good but feels like it will be a step below the top guys. I'd rather take the risk with English, pass.

Cameron - He had a monster opening round rucking against Keefe when Briggs went down. He broke out last year to average 105, however an 18 against the Lions in round 3 is an absolute season killing score. He otherwise would have averaged 110 on the season and with not much behind him at the Pies in the ruck stocks he makes for an interesting starting option. I'll currently pass

Grundy - He is underdone coming into the season and ended up scoring an 84 against Meek in opening round. He isn't near his 2021 level (which would be an instant lock) and he really struggled at the back end of last season. Unfortunately he looks like he is past it as an option for SC. Pass

Meek - He was on my radar the year he was traded to the Hawks. I felt he was a better ruck option than Reeves and I was planning to start him. The Hawks went with Reeves before Meek took over as the full time R1 for them last year. He looks like a solid play in that role and even performed pretty well in spot duty when Darcy was injured in his Freo days. The ceiling is excellent and he just came off a pretty good showing against Grundy. The downside is the early bye which is why he was out of contention, but I am warming to a Meek/TDK combo.

TDK - I've always said if he is the sole ruck I'm picking him. He has all the tools to be the number 1 ruck, the issue has been a combination of his body and the Blues persistence to play Pitto in the lead ruck role. Pitto is out at least 6 weeks and I don't think he should be getting a game unless there are mass injuries to the Blues talls forcing TDK forward.  We got a taste of what he could really do over a 5 week stretch last year as the lead ruck where he dominated with an average of 144. The ceiling is nuts and there is more of a risk in not starting him. Lock and load.

Darcy - Expected to miss early, pass.

McInerney - He's a pretty good player but never been fantasy relevant. I don't see him having a breakout this year and I don't think his style of play leads to big scores anyway. Pass

Briggs - Another that had a drop off after a breakout season, Briggs was huge for the Giants when he came in for them in 2023. An early concussion sees him out until after their bye, easy pass now.

ROB - Super safe JS with Strachan injured but hasn't been relevant in years. Pass.

Sweet - An under the radar pick, the job is his and he can score pretty well as the sole option. He could jump up a tier this year, but I think I'd rather a Meek/TDK combo than a Sweet/TDK combo if I can get the extra 80k. Pass.

Draper and Bryan- They are priced quite well and Draper looked amazing in the pre-season game. They are expected to split the ruck duties, both could be in play if the other gets injured and they come at a discount with DPP, but currently a pass.

Flynn - He played one of the worst quarters of football that I've seen against North in the practice match and still finished on a score of 98. At his price he makes the most sense as a flex option. Not only can he provide ruck cover, but you get a number 1 ruck for a team at 260k and can still field him while playing two other premium rucks. He is an easy switch to a good rookie at any position if he flops. Lock

Keefe - Briggs is out concussed but likely back after their bye and Keefe scored crap in the role anyway. Pass.

Reidy - Potential R3 option with Darcy out, he is expected to be the Freo lead ruck while Jackson plays a joker role. Could be a nice stash although Darcy is expected back early.

[Mat0369]

Forwards

JHF - I originally had him as my F1 but he is currently out of my side. He is heavily in the midfield rotation with a great ceiling and the forwards don't have any stand out scorers. With other lines being weak and the forward line having some value picks I figured I'd go much cheaper with my F1 and he is out.

Rankine - When in the midfield for the Crows last season he tore games apart. He then tore his hamstring. The injury risk and uncertain Crows midfield rotation has him out along with my structure.

Moore - One of my better pickups last season, he's probably a safe bet for a 95 average. He could have a couple of crap scores back to back but he covers so much ground and gets involved in scoring chains to have some monsters as well. Probably an upgrade target with more value in the middle of the pack.

Jackson - Will play forward, ruck and midfield for Freo, as a forward it keeps his ceiling a bit lower. As a number 1 ruck he is a lock, but it seems they want to play him forward early so a pass.

Daniels - Under the radar option, he averaged a career high 90 and scored 100 in opening round. He covers the ground in a similar way to Dylan Moore and has speed to burn. He may be one to keep an eye on as an upgrade.

McKay - Don't think I'll look at him for my team this year, key forwards are a rollercoaster and he has never cracked a 90 average. Pass

Cameron - The one key forward I'd consider starting, he gets up and plays like an extra mid at times, he would need to average 95 and I prefer the cheaper options.

ANB - If he is heavily involved as a mid for the Crows he could be a sneaky start. He has a good ceiling and can hit the scoreboard. Holding off until I get a better idea of their line-up.

Treacy - Key forward that will see a lot of supply, still a pass with how volatile they are. Maybe if he is super cheap after a couple poor games as an option for F6/F7

Waterman - Same as Treacy

Curnow - The most upside of all the key forwards, missing early so it's a pass. Keep an eye on him as an upgrade target.

Baker - He is expected to play off HB which could be pretty good for his scoring. One to keep an eye on but doesn't fit my structure

Miers - He is involved in a lot of scoring chains which is good for SC, although he has put up some season ending clunkers which keeps him at around that 80 average. Maybe worth grabbing after one of those as a potential F7 option down the track. Pass.

Keays - As a mid he is a great option, when he is in that half forward role that has him out of the rotation it's a miss.

Greene - Will miss games and doesn't seem to have the same consistency or ceiling as previous years. Pass

Rayner - He would need significant mid minutes to make a jump, it's a crowded rotation and I see Ashcroft getting more time in there ahead of him. Pass.

Bolton - He has burnt me in the past with his volatile scoring, if he is heavily involved as a mid he is worth the risk, but right now I'd rather go with other options. Pass

Kennedy -  Potentially will get a ton of early midfield minutes with the Dogs injuries. He can average 90 through that period, but he could also be out of the team just as quick when they return or pushed into that half forward role which kills his ceiling. Pass.

Lipinski -

Macrae -

B. Smith -

Harmes -

Bailey -

Graham -

Thilthorpe -

Lukosius -

Wilson -

[Mat0369]

Forwards 2.0

Hipwood -

Rachele -

Parker -

Sanders -

Finlayson -

Humphrey -

Daniel -

Silvagni -

H. Garcia -

Wicks -

Hutchinson -

McInnes -

Motlop -

[Mat0369]

So Darcy out indefinitely, does Reidy come into play as R3? They played him in the ruck late in the season and Jackson forward

[arbel]

I reckon he does come in. Might be handy cos I think they like Jackson better as a FWD

[Mat0369]

I reckon he does come in. Might be handy cos I think they like Jackson better as a FWD

I'm also reading that they don't want Treacy to be the second ruck if Jackson is the primary. It will open up the door, but I also saw Darcy is expected back by round 3 which would kill any potential price rise

[Mat0369]

I'm screwing around with a few structures and I like the look of the 'zero forward' line. In NFL Fantasy there is a strategy called 0 RB. Once all the top guys are off the board, the idea is to load up on as many guys that could provide upside and draft other positions instead to capitalise on total points.

Most teams are looking to have JHF as their F1 with Macrae at F2. I like the look of my team more when I take out JHF and maybe play a forward rookie in the place of a defensive rookie. Someone like Hewett or Stone could hold down that F6 spot and allow me to bring in a legit D3 premium. I was going light in the midfield instead, but with some of the top rookies in Lalor and Smith either missing the start or out for the entirety of the season, I currently have Daicos in as a placeholder and I really like the lineup.

I'll post the teams in my next post

[Mat0369]

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This is my team with Mills at D3 and JHF at F1

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This is my 0 Forward team. I still had the cash to bring Tsatas in as a placeholder, whereas I only had the cash for a pretty crap D7

[Bully]

Daicos has an early bye, it won't be a savage penalty but it's still a handicap.

[Mat0369]

Daicos has an early bye, it won't be a savage penalty but it's still a handicap.

That was originally why I never even considered him. I just had a look at the byes and if I do go with Daicos and Stewart they will both miss round 3 along with both Ashcrofts, Smith and Mills. That might have to be a swap around since it's way too many guys missing in one round