The Watchlist - 2024 Edition

[Mat0369]

Round 5

Score: 1633
Rank: 72,136
Round Rank:  112,074
Cash: $188,000

Trades

Howes > Graham

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Good: D'Ambrosio, Williams, Graham, Butters, Miller, Flanders, Powell, Reid, Darcy
Pass: Stewart, Bramble, Cadman, Wilson
Bad: Windhager, Sharp
Ugly: Brown, Sanders, Bont, Green, Laird (C), English, Campbell

A new tier for a couple of disasters on the next level

Defcon 1: McKercher and Clark

This week was an unmitigated disaster. My team only scored 1633 with most of my big premiums pulling a Houdini and disappearing to go along with with a crap captain score and some rookie chaos.

My next step is working out what to do from here. The one that needs to go this week is McKercher. Sanders, Campbell and Clark are going to be pretty close to on the way out as well (although at Clark's price he is probably a hold and sits at M11).

Windhager and Bramble have high BE's, but if the 33 comes out of Brambles 3 week average he could be that nice stepping stone again.

I feel like Windhager was screwed  a little in that game. I counted a couple of possessions where he wasn't credited the stat at all.

Cadman and Cambell are both close to their ceiling. I am thinking it might be worth getting rid of Cadman this week and hold Campbell before dumping him next week

I'll play around with some trade options and then come back and have a look at what looks best.

[Ringo]

Suggestion Cadman to Nyuon and then Sanders/McKercher to a prem defender

[arbel]

With the bye you have the luxury of campbell not changing in price so I'd prioritise moving on Cadman and then yeah probably need a prem defender in there.

[Colliwobblers]

First things first you HAVE to get Clohesy. That's a hundred-thousand-dollar trade in.

I'd Mckercher to Clohesy.

$368,500 in the bank after that trade I believe.

Leave Daicos in the middle for now, Sanders and Sharp can't be trusted on field, but Clohesy in a short sample size definitely can be trusted on field down back.

Campbells breakeven is fine no risk in running him for a game or two more. Probably nothing much to gain either unless he throws up another 80 to restart his cash gen.

Cadman is in a slightly better position than Campbell with his BE compared to his average I'd prefer to hold him tbh.

Clark by far the worst rook you've got, even if he isn't with a 2 and 28 in that rolling average and a 74 BE he's either held due to lack of value in trading (like Reid) or the next off the bus.

Team is solid for where we are at you just had an absolute mare. Mine was almost as bad except for the captain pick and the huge meek risk. (bont+laird+green) unkind.

So not sure you have to bail on the mid priced defenders or risk another mid priced/undervalued premium, maybe trade one of those three rooks for comben ($70k gain thank you very much).

And if you prefer Nyuon over Comben do it next week and this week get Rowell or Merret or Steele

OR

If you favor Walsh hold the $$ for one more look at Walsh?

Interested to see which way you go.

[Mat0369]

Suggestion Cadman to Nyuon and then Sanders/McKercher to a prem defender

I'd rather wait on Nyuon until he is on the bubble, I can't see a reason to grab him yet when I will bring Clohesy in for cash.

With the bye you have the luxury of campbell not changing in price so I'd prioritise moving on Cadman and then yeah probably need a prem defender in there.

Yeah, my thoughts were that Campbell won't change in price while Cadman has a BE of 40. With Gov and Marchbank out (not that Marchbank was any good when he last played), he will likely get one of Young or Kemp as his matchup. He should hit that 40 pretty easily, although it's better to go a week early instead of a week late. I probably need a premium defender looking at the players I have floating around, but being able to swing Roberts back next week may mean I look at a mid if I am dumping Sanders and McKercher. I can probably field D'Ambrosio, Williams, Roberts and Clohesy at D3-D6 and that's not including Windhager and/or Bramble who I have in the D3 spot right now.

[Mat0369]

First things first you HAVE to get Clohesy. That's a hundred-thousand-dollar trade in.

I'd Mckercher to Clohesy.

$368,500 in the bank after that trade I believe.

The numbers are correct and that is the first trade I'm locking in. McKercher was cleared of an injury and will play this week, but a BE of 101, and no cash gen for the next fortnight makes him tempting to move. They do play Hawthorn and Adelaide in their next two games with the swing down back coming, but it makes the most sense to ship him out this week.

Campbells breakeven is fine no risk in running him for a game or two more. Probably nothing much to gain either unless he throws up another 80 to restart his cash gen.

Cadman is in a slightly better position than Campbell with his BE compared to his average I'd prefer to hold him tbh.

Campbell has a 34 for his BE with Melbourne and Freo after his bye. Both are tough matchups for small forwards so I'll probably move him on post bye if anyone stands out that's on the bubble.

Cadman to someone like Comben will pocket me around 50k and Comben is due to make a boatload of cash which has me considering that trade.

Clark by far the worst rook you've got, even if he isn't with a 2 and 28 in that rolling average and a 74 BE he's either held due to lack of value in trading (like Reid) or the next off the bus.

With Danger back this week he probably gets a run in the VFL. Sitting at 183k trading him out doesn't pocket me much cash and I think there is more value in sitting him at M11 for the next couple of weeks.

First things first you HAVE to get Clohesy. That's a hundred-thousand-dollar trade in.

I'd Mckercher to Clohesy.

$368,500 in the bank after that trade I believe.

Leave Daicos in the middle for now, Sanders and Sharp can't be trusted on field, but Clohesy in a short sample size definitely can be trusted on field down back.

Campbells breakeven is fine no risk in running him for a game or two more. Probably nothing much to gain either unless he throws up another 80 to restart his cash gen.

Cadman is in a slightly better position than Campbell with his BE compared to his average I'd prefer to hold him tbh.

Clark by far the worst rook you've got, even if he isn't with a 2 and 28 in that rolling average and a 74 BE he's either held due to lack of value in trading (like Reid) or the next off the bus.

Team is solid for where we are at you just had an absolute mare. Mine was almost as bad except for the captain pick and the huge meek risk. (bont+laird+green) unkind.

So not sure you have to bail on the mid priced defenders or risk another mid priced/undervalued premium, maybe trade one of those three rooks for comben ($70k gain thank you very much).

And if you prefer Nyuon over Comben do it next week and this week get Rowell or Merret or Steele

OR

If you favor Walsh hold the $$ for one more look at Walsh?

Interested to see which way you go.

I'm leaning towards the mid prem and it's funny you mentioned Walsh because I had made the trades of Sanders, McKercher and Cadman to Clohesy, Comben and Walsh yesterday and I didn't mind the look of it. I would have around 146k left in the bank and can make two trades the week after to maybe grab Taylor Adams in the forward line if he has another strong performance.

[Mat0369]

Just going to post this here so I have a reference. BE's for my rookies

D'Ambrosio - 34
Williams - 6
Brown - 14
Graham - -91
Sanders - 49
Sharp - -7
Roberts - 13
McKercher - 101
Clark - 74
Reid - -18
Cadman - 40
Darcy - -23
Campbell - 34
Wilson - -3

List of rookies (230k and under)

Georgiades - -31 - With Finlayson out suspended his JS would be rock solid for the next month. Slightly more expensive than Comben with a higher BE so the edge would probably go to Comben

Comben - -75 - High intercept numbers since coming into the 1's. Had some brain fades against the Cats but as a young KPP I think they keep playing him.

McEntee - 50 - expensive with a high BE, pass

Gallagher - 62 - If I'm spending 220k I'm spending the extra 10k for the guaranteed Comben cash gen.

McIntosh - 69 - He is on bye, but sorting through players his name popped up. He is currently averaging 37.7 and has averaged 55.1 and 71.5 the two seasons prior. Seems an interesting option in a couple of weeks if there are limited players available and he can get back to scoring anywhere near the 70's

Gardiner - 18 - Don't like him at his price, pass

Williams - 17 - Expensive and not averaging too well, pass

Burgoyne - -3 - The issue with Burgoyne is the vest. He showed the ability to score without it, but at 208k probably too much risk picking him when he is a starting sub candidate.

Davey Jr - 73 - No chance he hits that and is a sub candidate. Pass

Duursma - 42 - It's right around his average and he unfortunately seems to be struggling in year one with the North forward delivery. Pass

Lohmann - -52 - I thought last week might have been the week to grab him, unfortunately I didn't, Bailey is now out 4-6 weeks and he is moderately priced at 205k with an excellent BE. He may be a nice option if I don't go Comben.


Walter - 34 - Averaging 39 it would be a pass at 200k.

Chesser - -7 - Had what felt like the highest score of his career last week which was a 70 odd. I'm having flashbacks to the rolling donut so pass.

Emmett - 10 - 38.4 average that doesn't look like improving. Pass

Lefau - -52 - A nice ton to kickstart his cash gen. Being on bye I'd hold off a week and only look at him if I was desperate next week. At 184k last week was probably the week to bring him in and maybe make a quick 80k if he goes back to being a spud.

Taberner - 60 - Averaging 37.5 that's an easy pass.

Hustwaite - 64 - With all the vests it's quite high. Pass until he gets a full game as he won't go up much in price.

Read - -1 - He is available as a ruck and should get DPP since he has been their forward ruck with Witts in the side. Only averaging 49 but he is an interesting option that I'll probably miss this week

Draper - 33 - Probably around what he will score as a lockdown player. I wouldn't trade him in at his current price with other options availble. Pass

Fantasia - 23 - Yeah, nah. Pass

Macrae - 40 - As long as he keeps getting vested it's a pass

Ramsden - -26 - A 25 last week as a young key position ruck/forward shows how volatile the position is. Pass.

Clohesy - -174 - The lock of all locks. Traded in already.


Drury, Nyuon and Garcia are three that have only played one game. Garcia if he holds his spot and role is the pick of the bunch. Drury I think had one good game followed by a bunch of awful ones last year. Nyuon had the 80 odd, if he backs it up he will be tempting.


Harvey Thomas, Finn Maginness, Uwland and Answerth all had strong games last week to lift them over that threshold of 230k. I wouldn't be trading any of them in this week.

[Mat0369]

I ended up going with the following for now

Out

Sanders
McKercher
Campbell

In

Clohesy
Comben
Walsh

110k in the bank

Bont Vice (which I am taking) and I ended up looping Darcy with Cadman. If Darcy flopped I hold Cadman and trade Campbell which should net me another decent rookie score hopefully.

Still a little undecided on Walsh or someone else considering there are so many midfield options. The better option may be to grab Zorko and have my forward line mostly done next week.

Bramble has to go for me next week. The BE was 94, he scored 63 but had like an 80 DT so it's a little stiff. Still think he makes sense to potentially dump next week.

[Bully]

I would hold on Zorko, Macrae & Adams are cheaper and probably likely to score better over the entire season.

[Mat0369]

I would hold on Zorko, Macrae & Adams are cheaper and probably likely to score better over the entire season.

If Macrae has a similar role to last night he is a must have option. It's the question marks surrounding his role though. Adams is the one I have my eye on this week with the intention of grabbing next week

[Mat0369]

Round 6

Score: 2000
Rank: 60,191
Round Rank: 11,208
Cash: $110,700

Trades

Sanders > Clohesy
McKercher > Walsh
Campbell > Comben

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Good: Windhager, Clohsey, Butters, Bont, Daicos, Walsh, Roberts, Grundy, English, Flanders, Reid, Wilson, Sharp
Pass: Graham, Cadman, Heeney
Bad: D'Ambrosio,, Bramble, Green, Miller, Powell, Comben
Ugly: Williams, Stewart, Laird, Clark, Darcy

Overall it was a solid week. Some premiums like Laird, Miller and Green sunk me along with the Stewart and Williams injuries. D'Ambrosio getting subbed was also a slight disaster. I was bragging about my Comben trade at QT, then he was swung forward in the second half so that was a disaster.

Looking at my team, these are my current issues

Williams - subbed and 33 in his rotation

Stewart - concussed and need cover for this week, bleeding cash after he was on track for a monster

D'Ambrosio - subbed and wasn't doing that great prior.

Bramble - has to go, his early scores were looking like a fluke even though his DT was much better than SC this week

Laird - the TOG has been awful in weeks prior, this week he was just awful. At least he still scored a 74

Powell - is he a premium forward? Lack of options was why we had him, but Phillips in and some below average scores are worrying.

Comben - does he get dropped or played forward?

I'm waiting for BE's before I make my trades, but I'm thinking of taking a punt and doing something like this

Williams, Cadman and Bramble out
Macrae, Adams and Garcia in

I can make it work with some DPP movement. It will come down to D'Ambrosio's BE if I trade him out ahead of Cadman this week

[Mat0369]

Jotting down my rookie/mid price BE's so I have them in one place

D'Ambrosio - 45

Williams - 62

Windhager - 41

Bramble - 56

Clohesy - -75

Brown - 14

Roberts - 22

Sharp - 72

Graham - -45

Clark - 75

Powell - 72

Reid - -30

Comben - 33

Cadman - 36

Darcy - 32

Wilson - 5

Looking at these numbers, Sharp's BE is a lot higher than I anticipated. Bramble may also be worth holding for another week with the 56 but I think I'm happy to hop off that rollercoaster.

[Bully]

Have you considered Sicily? I think this is a good week to get him.

[arbel]

I had similar carnage but overall pretty good score for the week. Think need to consider getting another decent forward in. I'd be leaning towards Adams at his price. To hard to trust Bevo to do the right thing with Macrae. Would want to see another good week although BE is good.

[Colliwobblers]

If you went D'Ambrosio or Sharp over Cadman you could get to Adams and Zorko, or Adams and Martin/Sicily/Whitfield down back...

Don't get Bevo'd :)