The Watchlist - 2024 Edition

[Bully]

Rowell is a great POD but next week could be brutal, even with top 18 scorers you will be missing 3 premos plus you will have Sexton, Cadman & potentially Berry if you go down that path. I'm sizing up a Campbell replacement but it will likely be Dempsey depending on this week's performance.

[Mat0369]

The bye is the ond thing that is worrying me, especially being next week. I think Heeney this week is still the go for my structure

[Ringo]

If happy with Heeney and bye next week then fine. Keep an eye on major byes with Swans having the first one Rd 12.

[Mat0369]

Ended up going the Heeney route over Rowell. Structure is better and even though Fisher killed it, I am happy to be off the rollercoaster and have Heeney who has put up some legit numbers. I also brought in D'Ambrosio for Gibcus since he looks to be the best option and it was worth going early with not many defenders on the horizon. I posted this in Bully's team thread as well, but these are the available rookies right now and which ones I think are must have.

Backs

Howes

Dean was dropped, Dawson and Pink don't look like they will score well, Hore had the sub vest but with May and Lever both getting injured maybe he gets a run at it. Coffield won't be a great scoring option but may get a nod over the fact he is playing. James Trezise may be an expensive option with only one AFL game for sample size that could be a goer with all the Tigers injuries. Burgoyne may get the vest but he is another pricy option. Pretty bleak for now.

Mids

McKercher
Roberts
Sharp (bench)
Carroll (bench)

Clark had an awful round 1 and okay round 2, Sanders looks like he could be a decent option if Bevo doesn't sub him out. I would probably add him to the list above.

Rucks

N/A

Naismith played one game and Barnett has actually been named this week with Moyle who is filling in for Witts. Barnett could be an options scoring pending?

Forwards

Reid
Wilson (ideally bench)
Sexton
Cadman


Berry is one in the forward line that looks like he will make a bunch of cash this week when goes up in price. I should probably put him in the line above but I'm not sold on him. Dempsey had the big round 1 followed by the down game this week while Mannagh had one good quarter. Duursma is pricey but scored well round 1, McInnes has the one game under his belt and may be a good bubble option. Lazzaro is expensive and was subbed so that is a pass. Guys like Seth Campbell/Windsor are good for the early price rise but may not be great scorers.

Looking ahead to next week, Carroll is the only rookie I don't really have. I also need to make a corrective trade for Reid and I'm inclined to grab Hore as the replacement.

Wines, Short and Grundy are my more expensive players to keep an eye on. Grundy has had a down couple of weeks, Wines and Short are yet to play but could be moved to others like Crouch and Luke Ryan pending available cash and crappy performances this week. I'm hoping I've nailed these picks and no trades will be needed.

[Ringo]

With best 18 is it better to keep Reid as D8 which I am doing as Hore was sub. Pink the other ooption was great early but faded,

[Mat0369]

I'm hoping I've nailed these picks and no trades will be needed.

So I haven't nailed my picks, and trades will be needed

Round 2

Score: 2004
Rank: 34,983
Round Rank:  27,669
Cash: $94,200

Trades

Fisher to Heeney
Gibcus to D'Ambrosio



Good: Stewart, D'Ambrosio, Howes, Bont, Green, Laird, Miller, Roberts, McKercher, Sanders, English (VC), Heeney, Flanders, Jordon, Cadman, Campbell
Pass: Wines, Sharp, Clark, Reid
Bad: Grundy, Wilson
Ugly: Short, Daicos, Coffield, Windsor, Sexton

I'm happy with the trades, even though Fisher hit the ton, I still think he will be a rollercoaster and Heeney looks like a lock for the top handful of forwards based on role and early form.

Short was an absolute flop this week. His stat line when he normally has 19 to 20 quicks will result in a 120+ score. He lost a bit of cash and I don't know if I ride it out or trade him. I'm lamenting the move that saw Butters out of my team, Laird to Crouch was clearly the move I should have made pre-lockout round 1 to free up that cash. In the meantime, Coffield popping his shoulder was not good for the defensive rookie prospects.

While Wines and Short haven't been awful, they haven't been Crouch/Butters or Sheez/Ryan. I'm really wanting Butters after having him all pre-season, but I can only see 2 ways to get the money. I would need to upgrade Wines and downgrade one of Grundy/Short.

On the plus side, I'm pretty happy with my rookies apart from down back. Missing Carroll will suck but with Walsh coming back I'm okay with that. Windsor to Darcy next week looks like a pretty good option to pocket some bonus cash.

So I have a number of trade options for this week

Option 1: Grundy and Wines to Xerri and Butters - 12k left in the bank
Option 2: Short and Wines to Yeo and Butters - 11.9k left in the bank
Option 3: Wines and Windsor to Butters and Carroll
Option 4: Short and Wines to Steele and Sheez - 9.4k in the bank
Option 5: Short and Wines to Crouch and Sheez - 48k in the bank
Option 6: Short and Wines to Powell and Ryan - 171k in the bank
Option 7: Short, Wines and Sexton to Dempsey, Ryan and Crouch - 26k in the bank
Option 8: Sexton  and Coffield to Dempsey and Hore - 128k in the bank

I could also just sit on my team a week and ride it out or make a single trade like Short to Sheez or Wines to Crouch.

[Bully]

Short to Sheezel I would do, this may be the last time we see parity, I don't think Short will be a reliable scorer and Sheezel looking like a 105+ player this year.

Wines to Crouch a bit too sideways, unless you firmly believe he's 110 this year I wouldn't bother. I personally think he's tossed up a couple of red herring scores, the one thing he's doing is making a meal of Dawson's scores, that is now an established pattern over 8 games.

Windsor to Carroll is the move I've made, that's 100k in the kitty and a player you can safely field.

My recommendation would be 2 trades, no need for a boost and then look at Darcy & perhaps a bit of Reefer madness for next week.   

[Mat0369]

I know as soon as I trade Short he will kill it, it's always the way with these guys. Ryan is the other one I curse whenever I own him.

Crouch I reckon will be great as a mid 8 option at a bargain basement price.

I actually came up with one more left field option that I don't mind.

Short to Windhager
Sexton to Powell
Wines to Butters

Windhager went from 17% to 83% CBA's in the last game. Brad Crouch is out for 6 to 8 weeks and he looked great in the middle for 24 touches and a score of 104.

Sexton to Powell gives me some cash gen

Wines to Butters fixes my own stupidity.

[Bully]

I like those trades, Windhager fills a void but could easily average 80, I think you make some money there. Butters was silk and I'm slightly jealous, I think he had only 20% ownership last week so still a nice POD. He's a high standard deviation player, I think there will be other buying opportunites but getting him now gives you a nice leg up. Glad you have come around to Powell, the contract extension this week tells you he's in the good books and a return to the forward line highly unlikely. Right age for the breakout season and he's finally got a cracking support cast to play with. Those without him run the risk of missing a cheap keeper, or at worst, missing out on a 400k easy upgrade. Not much downside from my perspective. 

[Ringo]

Like those options - only issue with Windhager is if he is not a keeper you may require extra trades but on current form could be an ideal D6.

[Mat0369]

I like those trades, Windhager fills a void but could easily average 80, I think you make some money there. Butters was silk and I'm slightly jealous, I think he had only 20% ownership last week so still a nice POD. He's a high standard deviation player, I think there will be other buying opportunites but getting him now gives you a nice leg up. Glad you have come around to Powell, the contract extension this week tells you he's in the good books and a return to the forward line highly unlikely. Right age for the breakout season and he's finally got a cracking support cast to play with. Those without him run the risk of missing a cheap keeper, or at worst, missing out on a 400k easy upgrade. Not much downside from my perspective.

He is a little more expensive than Powell. I think I need a 90 average or some quick tons to jack his price up before a clunker. St Kilda have Essendon and Richmond the next two weeks before they play the Giants, Dogs, Port, North and Hawthorn. It's a tough 3 game stretch and if he gets through that okay he'll hopefully be primed to trade out around the byes.

Butters had an elite finish to last year which is why he was in my team all pre-season up until the last second. Butters averaged 121.6 from round 8 until the end of the year and 139.4 in the last 5 with  a low of 129. Those numbers are insane for a guy priced at an average of 113.8. He was putting up numbers very similar to Ablett in 2007 where he averaged 114.2 and then went on to average 132 in 2008. Butters could very well be the top mid at the end of 2024 so to grab him now before he potentially takes multiple trades to be obtainable should hopefully pay off. It's easy to get sucked in by the big score but I need to go back to my gut and he feels like a must have option.

Powell should at worst provide a quick cash grab. I worry he might get moved out of the role and that will kill his scoring, but as long as he keeps seeing volume CBA's he should be a decent option. He could have a Simpkin breakout and getting the new contract makes it a bit easier to start him with confidence. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a clunker against Carlton. LDU is probably the one that has a huge game out of the North mids in this one, but I feel like our bigger bodies might cause him some issues.

Like those options - only issue with Windhager is if he is not a keeper you may require extra trades but on current form could be an ideal D6.

By making the Short to Windhager move it allows me to upgrade Wines (who hasn't been bad) to a keeper in Butters and have the cash to grab Powell who could hopefully be an F6 option or stepping stone. If Windhager keeps the current role it could work out even better with him being a D6/D7 option with mid DPP so he can cover both lines.

That drop down in cash helps me sure up two other lines while taking a calculated risk. I don't mind the structure getting the extra rookie off the field in the forward line and the next step is to just try and maximise my cash with rookies.

[Mat0369]

Windhager is an absolute flop. Finding the ball but 4 clangers and  a disaster score at HT

[Mat0369]

I broke Butters

[Colliwobblers]

I broke Butters

Haha same as Serong, kept well out of it for most of the first half, then released or rose above it. Decent scores in the end, if only decent just for Butters.

[Bully]

Windhager is an absolute flop. Finding the ball but 4 clangers and  a disaster score at HT

It gets worse, just been offered a 1 match suspension, horrible timing too. I would just bite the bullet and get him up to Sheezel.