The Watchlist - 2024 Edition

[Mat0369]

New year, new team.

With team picker open and working even though I don't have gold I am taking an early look at potential players I like across each position. I'll update these as I get time

Backs

Daicos - He will be the first picked defender for most even with the bye. The only worry with Daicos is how does he cope with a tag? He has GWS, Sydney and Hawthorn early, all will likely send someone to him in some capacity. Teams are tagging far less than previous seasons, but it may be something to watch.

Sicily - He backed up an amazing 2022 with an even better 2023 scoring wise. He absolutely burnt me last year with 2 suspensions just after I traded him in. I can't see him regressing much if at all scoring wise, just have to hope he avoids the tribunal.

Tom Stewart - I started him last year and he was one of the reasons my season began with a disaster. He scored 18, had a knee injury that was expected to keep him out a while and he looked like a dead pick. He somehow returned in round 3 after I traded him to score a 167 and finish with an average of 113.7, dropping under 90 1 other time and beating his average from the year prior. He actually averaged 118.2 when you take out the injury score, which isn't only good for the number 1 defender, he would have been the number 4 mid and number 5 overall player.

Luke Ryan - After an amazing 2020 Ryan had seemed to struggle to bounce back to those numbers. I started him in 2022 and traded him out before he went on a little run after getting flop scores most weeks. Last season he bounced back and was rather consistent throughout. He didn't drop under 80 on the season, but his finals were a little disappointing with scores of 88, 83, 114 and 93. He is one I will look at as an upgrade option.

Sinclair - A really good user by foot with the ability to break lines for the Saints, he took a step back in his scoring from the previous season but was still pretty great. Part of this may be due to Wanganeen-Milera taking the majoirty of the kick-in duties (although Sinclair took slightly more than last year he took 14 less than Wanganeen-Milera). Another I probably won't pick as a starting option but will look at as an upgrade.

Houston - I really like Houston, he has a huge ceiling, can play multiple positions and doesn't need to have 30+ to ton up. He essentially plays as an extra mid coming off the back of stoppages and is a key link up man. He does put up the occasional clunker and that will see his price drop. I see him as an ideal upgrade target

Newman - He is another player I really like, I have been a fan of Newman since he was a Swan and thought he would be the perfect replacement for Kade Simpson if we could land him. Like Simpson, he had his best SC season in his 30's. He didn't need to take the kick-ins to score and increased his intercept possessions by just under 2 per game and total possessions from 19ish to 23ish. The Blues will see Zac Williams come back in some capacity next season and I am not sure how that changes the back 6. I still think Newman will be an extremely important player for the Blues, but I don't know if he can replicate the scores, especially the hot patch he hit from round 16 (which I think coincided with the Blues injuries in the midfield).

Sheezel - A superb rookie season from Sheezel saw him average premium numbers. He was fantastic with ball in hand and was winning a ton of the footy. If North continue with him in that rebounding role I would expect he only improves in year 2. Ziebell who took the majority of the kick-ins has also retired which would give Sheezel a higher floor. He is one I am seriously considering as an option to start the year.

Short - He has gained defender status after being mid only to start 2023. He also shifted to the backline late in the year and started taking the kick-ins again (15 of his 32 came in the last 3 rounds). He has averaged 98 for the last 3 seasons and has seen a lot of chopping and changing with his role. He played midfield at one point due to the Tigers lack of midfield options and then shifted to the HFF, but he seems to score a ton of points without doing a hell of a lot when he is a seagull down back and taking those kick-ins. When you take out the injury score he averaged 102 and I can see him pushing into that 105 bracket and in the bottom end of the top 6 defenders. He is tempting to start and in my original draft but may be a better pick as an upgrade target.

Lloyd - He was a lock for a good 5 years there and in the last two seasons he has averaged 92.1 and 95.8 last year. The drop off I believe can simply be put down to less kick-ins. He went from 133 in 2021 to 119 the following year and a grand total of 85 last year to Blakey's 100. He is still a pretty damn good consistent option and when you take out his sub score he averaged closer to 99, but unless he gets more kick-ins again he is probably a step below the top tier guys that look to be averaging close to 110. Probably one I might look to trade in, particularly if he gets an early injury and is quite cheap, but one I most likely won't start with

Ridley - He hasn't quite lived up to the insane start he had in 2020 where he looked like he would be a SC lock for 5 years. He had a disappointing 2021 (which in hindsight wasn't a huge regression), a slump in 2022 and 2023 was a hit and miss year. He has two sub scores in the mix, if you take out the 18 and keep the 80 he is averaging 99.7 on the year. He is still the level below the top guys and missing games through injury has also hurt him. Last year also saw his kick-in numbers significantly drop, he took 112 in 2021 and took a total of 59 compared to Redman's 88 last year. The potential is huge with Ridley, coming into his prime, looking to bounce back to that 100 mark if he is injury free and scope for improvement if he takes more kick-ins, he is one that will tempt but personally is probably a better bet as an upgrade unless Redman has an LTI or it looks like he will take the bulk of the kick-in work.

Young - He is an extremely popular option with the midfield minutes coming his way. I think it was round 20 he went into the midfield as a tagger and scored 69, 123, 118, 113 and 111 in that stretch. That's good for an average of 106.8 in that period of time which puts him in that D5/D6 category. He has been training with the mids in match sim so it looks like the move is a more permeant one. Why wouldn't I pick him? It's a small sample size, more midfield time doesn't necessarily always mean more points, he is priced at 520k which is quite pricey and is he going to be a lock to be one of their main 3 CBA mids with Brayshaw and Serong who are both 110 average guys along with Fyfe returning, Johnson and Erasmus improving and Brodie also around. I feel like at his price not starting him won't be a detriment to your side. It will depend on structure and rookies, but if you have Daicos, Sicily and Stewart in your D1/D2 spots (or even start all 3 of them) you'll likely have someone outproducing Young. I am happy to wait and see and see if he continues the form and he could be an early upgrade or sideways trade using some DPP magic.

Whitfield - Could we see the return of Whitfield to premium status. He was a machine in 2019 averaging 111 and was on a steady regression since. Last year his averaging went up by 6 ppg to 92 which is okay but not super impressive compared to that 111 and the top end defenders this year. Why is he an option?  After 18 kick-ins in 2022, he had a whopping 106 last year. That gives him a great floor each week. A concussion round 1 and adjustment to his role with the new coach saw him start the season slowly. Round 7 he got going and didn't really look back averaging 100 from that point on with a low of 67 in that period. He also averaged 108.3 in the 3 finals with a high score of 141. He is a risky pick, but he is one that could also pay off. The reason to not pick him? Injury prone and every time he looks like taking off he flops. I think he is one I will leave as a potential upgrade but I will have early eyes on him. We get a free look with the opening round and if he scores well against the Pies he could be a sneaky start.

Vlastuin - One that I thought might break out last year took a backwards step. He had an insane back end to 2021 where he averaged 104 in his last 6. 2022 he averaged close to 100 (103.4 if you take out the sub score and 107.8 minus the sub score in his last 9), looked like he would take the bulk of the kick-in work and is an excellent intercept defender. Last year he took a backwards step and dropped to 92.1 for the season.  He averaged 80 in his last 7 and that seems to have contributed to why his average dropped from the 101 he averaged the 13 games prior. From memory I don't know if his role changed (I think the Tiges had injuries to key defenders) and he may be losing the kick-ins as well which doesn't give him as high a floor. He is too risky to start but definitely in that upgrade target zone with his high ceiling if he gets back into that SC friendly role that he was beginning to thrive in

Powell - A bit of a surprise packet last year and his average jumped over 14ppg. Once Weller went down he began to take the majority of the kick-ins. He suffered a season ending ankle injury late but with Weller due back I think I would hold off, I can't see him jumping in average again by another 14 ppg to become a bonafide premium.

Redman - He was a popular pick to breakout last year and ended up regressing to finish with a 90.9 average. He actually took the majority of the kick-ins last year for the first time and still saw the step back. Personally I wouldn't start him and I think Ridley provides the better value right now if I was to pick a Bombers player

Dale - After an excellent 2022, Dale really struggled to get going in 2023. He averaged 1 less kick and 1 less mark a game but dropped close to 11ppg. He was far less damaging with the ball and his scores suffered. It will likely be a crapshoot again and I think I am happy to stay away until he proves me wrong.

Duggan - The 90 average was a clear career high for Duggan who has never really been SC relevant, even when people hoped he would be. With Hurn gone someone will have to take the kick-ins and does it fall to him, Witherden or both? I don't think he will be relevant even if the ball is in the Eagles back half most of the season, but he is worth keeping an eye on

Duncan - Mainly here on name value, but he did average 100.7 over the last 7 and 98.7 over the last 9. I think his body is too risky to start him and it did fail him quite often early in the season. He came back in round 14 for an 82 and then hit his straps with a low of 75 against the Pies and 4 tons. I won't start him but he could be an excellent option

Brayshaw - With the concussion issues I am not even considering him. He just got back into full training this week and if he is playing across HB he isn't worth picking anyway.  EDIT: Retired

Saad - A huge drop from Saad in 2023. After a career high 103 in 2022 he averaged 89.6 last year and broke the ton 3 times from round 5 until the end of the season after starting the year with 4 consecutive tons. He won much less of the footy last year and Newman seemed to take the role of that rebounding half back. With Williams also back into the mix I probably stay away from Saad until he gets a pretty good run. Although he did seem to either ton up or crap the bed in 2022 as well so he is a high standard deviation player and can definitely be had for cheap at some point in the season when he puts up a clunker.

Blakey - After a huge jump in 2022 and a mini jump in 2023, Blakey is entering his prime as a line breaking half back flank that can change games but can butcher the ball. He is one I wouldn't be surprised if he jumps up another level and ends up averaging close to 100 for the year. The Swans are looking to feed him the ball to break games open but he still has the clunkers in there. If he can get those out of his game and bring them up to even a 75 or 80 he will be at the top end. I don't think the reward outweighs the risk of picking him at 500k where he is too expensive to be a stepping stone and needs to be a keeper.

Wanganeen-Milera - A 34 point jump from year 1 to 2 is quite significant, he is also entrusted with taking the majority of the Saints kick-ins just ahead of Sinclair. I think he is one to consider if Sinclair gets injured, but otherwise I can't see him making the jump again to be a top tier defender.

Witherden - I was a little surprised to see he played 22 games last year. With Hurn out I would assume he has pretty good job security. Scoring wise, how did he do in games without Hurn? 69, 104, 118, 114, 48, 57, 92, 107, 133 and 85. 5 tons in 10 games is pretty good, the unfortunate side is the 2 sub 60 scores which kill his average. He is in the 92 range which is ballpark with his career best 2020 and 2022 seasons. Priced at 470k he is too expensive for a stepping stone and his inconsistent scoring is a worrying sign, pass for me at this stage.

Himmelberg - He was an absolute star in 2022 when he switched to playing down back in round 10, averaging a whopping 109.5 in the last 13 rounds with 8 tons and 4 of those above 120 (including a 187). He made the move down back again in round 10 last year, copped a knock the first week and didn't return after HT. From round 12 to round 24 he scored 103, 88, 72, 84, 90, 80, 109, 72, 91, 89, 127 and 129.  That leaves him with a 94.5 average along with a disappointing finals series where he averaged 80 across the 3 games. The ceiling could be there, but the role is different with GWS having more key defenders healthy resulting in a different role to the previous year. He is a nice high upside option and another one I will use full advantage of the opening round to get an idea on if he cements a spot in my side.

Yeo - Injuries have taken their toll on Yeo and he has played 10, 5, 12 and 10 games since 2020. He still has a pretty good ceiling, but his body is a constant let down. I think even at his price it's not worth the risk of him getting injured.

Maynard - He hasn't quite backed up the 102 average from all the way back in 2020 and has had off-season surgery which is seeing him start contact drills late in pre-season. I really like him as a player but he doesn't seem to have a very SC friendly role right now. He is one they have thrown in the midfield at times and have also given some kick-in duties. Definitely not one to start with but could be a cheap D6/D7 option late in the season with his ability to have big games.

May - After 3 90+ seasons in a row, May saw his average drop into the 80's. I can see one very simple reason for this ignoring his intercept numbers, he had 151 kick-ins in 2022 and played on 93% of the time. In 2023 he had 125 and played on 79% of the time. That is a significant amount and if he sees that number bump up again he is a 90 average player at the minimum. He just turned 32 and also has tends to miss the odd game or be banged up and play through which adds to the injury risk. I think I would pass at his price point.

Brodie Smith - Only reason he is on the list is his kickin numbers which appear to be dwindling. I think he is low to mid 80's guy again unless he becomes the main weapon they use to take kick-ins. The Crows seem happy to share the load between Milera, Smith and Hinge so I would stay away.

Salem - A 94.5 average backed up by two injury hit years which saw him average in the 70's makes Salem a nice prospect. He is currently on a modified program but he is expected to play more midfield along with Trent Rivers and Bailey Laurie. This makes him a pretty tempting option with his clean ball use and 420k price tag. He could very well bounce back to a 95 point average but is that enough to make him a keeper or is he too expensive for a stepping stone? I'm wanting to see the Dees pre-season games to get a better idea of what they might look at doing come the real stuff along with opening round where the points are real but the scores don't count.  EDIT: He attended the most CBA's of any Dee against the Blues, if his role looks to be more as a CBA mid he is going to be extremely tempting at his price.

Coleman - He dropped 16 ppg from 2022 to 2023 but averaged 94.9 over the last 10 weeks including finals. With Rich out of the team and the Lions looking to get the ball in his hands he appears to be a pretty good option. If he can jump into that 95 tier he is worth picking at his price as a potential D6 keeper or stepping stone. It will come down to structure but he isn't a lock in my side at this point.

[Mat0369]

So I ran out of max characters allowed and I'll have to bump my posts down

Backs 2.0

Cumming - After averaging 92.9 in 2021 and 94.7 in 2022, Cumming dropped to a 69.4 average last year. He saw a change in role and moved from the back 6 up to the wing and also stopped taking the kick-ins. Basically his role swapped with Whitfield's. He is one to watch through the pre-season because if he moves to the back 6 at his price he has to be a lock, especially if he gets the kick-in duties again. I don't think the Giants want to tinker with a winning formula, so it will most likely take an injury to force the change.

Bowes - After moving over from the Suns he didn't have a great year for the Cats. He averaged 72.4 without the 4 straight sub games which is better than what he is priced at but not good enough to pick him at all. The Cats are in a transition period and Bowes should get some games, it is more likely across the HBF and he was pretty good there for the Suns at times. He is one to keep an eye on, but at his price you need that 90 average to at least be a stepping stone. Currently a pass

Windhager - Entering year 3 without a real breakout yet, Windhager could be in line for more midfield time and a potential option if it does eventuate. I think the Saints have too many mids that are similar inside guys that don't have burst or use the ball well. I haven't watched enough of him at AFL level to know if he has the ability to hit targets consistently by foot but he can be used as a tagger which I don't think is great from a SC perspective. Probably a pass for now.

Goater - Probably too expensive to go near, but with all the outs in the North backline and if Sheezel plays more midfield he could be a nice option if he gets the kick-in duties. I still don't see him averaging much more than 70 so he won't be worth the dollars with better options around

Bramble - I found it interesting that the Dogs picked him up and normally when they do they have a plan with these mature age players. He had some excellent games for the Hawks but also made some bonehead decisions that I still remember costing them a game last year. Priced under 300k so if he can have some decent scores he could be a nice stepping stone, I doubt he fits into the 22 early unless there are some injuries late in pre-season. Pass

Chapman - My fave option in 250k+ bracket, he is coming off an injury interrupted season, can string some nice games together, is highly rated and is actually a possible replacement for Henry on the wing. If he is fit round 1 he has to be a lock in most sides.

Cox - A high pick for the Bombers entering his 4th season and he hasn't really strung together any fantastic performances yet. This year he would have to really breakout or stamp his authority in a role or he would be tracking to bust territory. Pre-season games will give us an idea on where he will play and if he looks like he has a role in the 22.

D'Ambrosio - A move to the Hawks could see him play more, however I feel the Hawks are pretty flush for HBF'ers so I am not sure what role he takes. He could be a nice expensive rookie option with his ability to use the ball by foot, he would have to be named and I am not sure if his JS is as good as some of the more popular options.

Williams - Lock and load, he is one of my first picked at his price and even if he struggles early you're only expecting him to outperform rookies and not put up premium numbers like in previous seasons.

Trezise - Mid season draft pick that played one game and scored pretty damn well. Not sure I remember much from that game but it will be interesting to see if he can carry that form through to this season. One I likely pass on right now but in that expensive rookie bracket.

Curtain - He is supposed to be one of the more ready made prospects in the draft based on size, he can play midfield and key position and the Crows are down one Nick Murray with a LTI. He should have great job security and enough ability to make him a lock

Gibcus - Racing the clock to be fit for round 1 apparently. He will have the best job security out of most rookies when fit so he seems like a lock on that alone.

Clurey - Port picked up a ton of key defenders which has seen him change position and he has been used on the wing. Duursma gone probably opens up a spot there as well so he is most definitely one to watch if he wins the job for R1.

Adam Kennedy - Coming off an ACL, never really been a scorer and probably no longer best 22. Pass even if fit.

Hamill - Speedy player that had some issues with injury and has flashed okay scoring potential. Probably won't sniff the 22 after getting delisted and picked up as a rookie, but one to keep an eye on.

Grainger-Baras - He is cheap but I don't know if he is worth starting. I don't think he has great scoring potential and there are cheaper options that will likely outperform him. I also have no idea where he plays for the Hawks this year, I don't see a spot forward or back for him.

Coffield - Fresh start at the Dogs and as a rebounding HBF he could be a nice rookie option. I don't know if he is in the best 22 and he can go missing in games but he is an excellent price and probably a lock if named round 1.

Hore - The Dees have brought him back and he was a pretty handy SC pick a few years ago. A spot is available next to Lever and May and it could be his to lock down. If he is named round 1 I'd be tempted to lock him in

Toby Pink - Mature age key defender for North, should play and makes sense as a D8

Zach Reid - He has struggled with injury since coming into the league but I think he will be looking to make an impact this year. A key defender and while Zerk-Thatcher left and they recruited McKay to replace him, there may be a potential spot there for him to break in. Potential D7/D8 option.

[Mat0369]

Mids

Bont - A massive jump from Bont to average close to 130 last year after averaging 116, 119.7 and 116 the 3 years prior.  He dropped under the ton once (89) and scored over 140 7 times. The consistency was ridiculous, but is it sustainable? Odds say it isn't, but he is an inside mid, teams rarely tag and he impacts the game when he gets his hand on the ball. I think I would just pay the premium price knowing I am going to get a top 8 mid, even if he does regress and I can get him cheaper later.

Oliver - The curious case of Clayton Oliver. After the hamstring debacle last year for a guy that has been not only durable, but consistent the last three years, the offseason has just gotten weirder each and every week. The scoring ability is still there and if he does stay on the park and out of trouble he very well could be the number 1 mid, but is the off field stuff enough to not even consider him? At this point I'd say yes, he may not even line up round 1 as it's looking right now so he is out.

Trac - His best SC season saw him finish with a 119 average and a whopping 124.3 with Oliver out of the team. He dropped under 100 3 times and all those scores were 95+ which is ridiculous consistency. He is worth considering regardless of what is happening with Oliver, but if Oliver is going to miss time he is almost a must start.

Laird - After a 127.8 average in 2022, Laird dropped back to 116.9 which was slightly better than his 2021 season. He started the season with a 50 which was his worst score of the season but was consistent the rest of the way. He dropped under the ton 4 more times, one of those a 98 that he was subbed out and the lowest score was an 84. He averaged about 123 from round 10 onwards and wins so much of the ball that he continues to have a high floor. He is one of the safer midfield picks and I currently have him as my starting M2.

Merrett - One of my worst trades last year involved not bringing in Merrett and Butters. At that point Merrett had been averaging 103.9 and Parish had just injured himself. Merrett went on to average 123.4 the rest of the way and dropped under the ton 3 times. I am curious to see what Essendon's midfield dynamic looks like this year with a number of players returning from injury and more outside run with the recruitment of Duursma. Merrett wins enough of the ball that I think he is a 110 mid at worst and more likely in the 115 region where he has been 3 of the last 4 seasons. He is a really good option but may not be in my starting team as I prefer Laird at a similar price point.

Libba - An out of the box season saw Libba finish with a 116 average. It was his best and most consistent season by far and he actually averaged 120 when you take out the concussion game. He has three scores under the ton, 5 scored of 140+ and thrived in his role. He is one I am extremely tempted to start as I believe he is under priced, but how likely is it he backs it up at 32? He is one I'll definitely have my eye on but it may be as an upgrade target down the track.

Dawson - Another jump in his scoring from a 109.5 average in 2022 to 115.9 in 2023 while he became one of the Crows main CB weapons. He is amazing using the ball by foot and is in his prime, an excellent option but I am leaning towards Laird for the time being.

Dunks - He had an amazing run through the middle of the season where he had 5 straight 120+ scores and a career high average last year. He also had a slow last month of the year where he hit the ton once in his last 4 games. He is an excellent option with a high ceiling but one I don't think is a must. I can see him averaging around 110 with maybe a slight regression, a lot of it will come down to how the Lions use him. I will look elsewhere to start the year and he may be an upgrade target.

Butters - The other half of my disaster trade, Butters averaged 121.6 from round 8 until the end of the year and 139.4 in the last 5 with  a low of 129. Those numbers are insane for a guy priced at an average of 113.8. He was putting up numbers very similar to Ablett in 2007 where he averaged 114.2 and then went on to average 132 in 2008. Butters could very well be the top mid at the end of 2024.

LDU - The only question with LDU is can he stay healthy. He burnt a lot of people last year picking up a couple of injuries, but when he was healthy he was a beast. He started the year with scores of 143 and 155 before being a late out in round 3. He finally had a decent score in round 9 with a 122 after struggling a little bit and missed until round 16. He averaged 121 in those last 7 games before missing the final couple of rounds. IF he can stay healthy he has to be considered at his price. Unlike a lot of other high injury risk guys I think it might be worth starting with LDU and sideways trading him to someone if he cops an early injury. Someone like Walsh or Dunkley both make sense.

Gulden - I really love Gulden as a player and I've been on the bandwagon since his rookie season. He is one of the best users by foot in the league and can punish teams as soon as he has the ball in his hand. I didn't expect him to break out as quickly as he has and it's really hard for guys to back up their first real premium season with another similar year or even improve on it. It's more likely that he regresses and at his price I think I'd rather keep an eye on him as an upgrade target.

Serong - Another one that had a real breakout 2023 in his 4th season. He had two scores below 90 all year which shows he has a relatively high floor. Does he back it up is the question? With Young moving into the mids it didn't really seem to hurt Serong's scoring a hell of a lot and he is an in and under mid that won't get pushed out of that spot. I think I'd rather hold off as he doesn't scream like someone that will push into the 115 bracket next year.

Tom Green - He frustrated me last year, but he ended up finishing with a 111.2 average and jumped 14 points per game. He missed games at inopportune times and was up and down through the first 13 rounds. He finished the season on a tear and averaged 121 over his last 7 while the Giants were playing some excellent football. Like Serong he is an in and under mid but he also wins a lot of outside ball. I feel more confident in Green taking the next step but he is another I am happy to hold off and maybe look at as an upgrade target.

Neale - He has a weird few seasons from a scoring perspective. 2018 he averaged 111.9, 2019 he averaged 121.3, 2020 he averaged 134.4, 2021 he averaged 99.8, 2022 he averaged 122.8 and last year he averaged 110.4. He lead the league in clearances, won a Brownlow, but saw his average drop by over 12 ppg and 4 less possessions per game than the previous season. He had an excellent stretch from rounds 9 to 17, but was inconsistent and disappointing outside of that most weeks. He will be 31 at the start of the season so he definitely has a couple of elite years left, but are we going to get the Neale of 2016-2018 where he was more a 110 player, or are we going to get one more monster year? Priced at 617k I think I'd rather take the punt on a younger option like Butters and look at Neale as a potential upgrade target down the track.

Brayshaw - He was a model of consistency for the last 14 rounds, dropping under the ton once and averaging 116.5. I think you know what you're going to get with Brayshaw, someone that wins a lot of the ball, gives you a high floor most weeks with the occasional clunker or eye popping score. He is a pretty good option to start with as a guy that will get you a ton more often than not. I like the upside of some of the other options and will probably look at him as potential upgrade option down the track.

Cerra - After a disappointing start to his Carlton career, Cerra had an amazing season last year. The most impressive of these games was the one he injured his hamstring against the Pies and was sitting on 104 at HT. He had 5 scores above 130 along with another 2 just below at 129 and 127. His ceiling was amazing and he started to be consistent week in and week out. I personally won't be starting him as while that run was amazing, he hasn't really been in that ballpark before and is priced at 600k. The risk doesn't outweigh the reward in this instance so it's a pass for now.

Parish - He hasn't quite hit the highs of a couple years back where he averaged 121.8 once he moved into the midfield full time. He has had a couple of injuries which has seen him play 16 and 18 games the last two years and has regressed from a 114 average in 2021 to 110 in 2022 and 108.1 last season. He didn't quite have the ceiling of the previous two years which was another contributing factor to his drop in average. I still really like him as an option but he would have to be an upgrade to fill the M8 spot later in the season.

Treloar - He had his best season in a long while last year averaging 107.7, his best since 2020 and his days as a premium level mid. With the loss of Dunkley and Macrae moving out of the CBA's, Treloar (78%) became the 3rd man in that rotation with Libba (78%) and Bont (81%) compared to 2022 when he was the 6th mid in line attending 37%.  He is a bit of an injury risk and with a pretty SC friendly role already he may be at his ceiling. I think he is one that may be looked at down the track if he has an injury and a nice price drop.

Rozee - Like Butters, he also had a breakout season increasing his average by 14 ppg. He dropped under 90 twice and no scores were under 75 which is pretty damn impressive. At 24 he is just about to enter his prime and could easily take the next step to be a 115 mid. There are probably better starting options but I don't think he is a bad pick at all and could be a nice POD if he does increase his average again.

Taranto - He finally looked like he was going to take that next step averaging 119.4 over the first 14 games. He then averaged 87 to close out the season and finished with a career high 106.7 on the season. The ceiling is there, but with his ability to butcher the ball and his disposal numbers dropping significantly on the back end from 30+ most weeks to mid 20's, he presents a risky play. Pass for now.

Anderson - I firmly believe that one of Anderson or Rowell (if not both) will become a top end premium this year. Anderson increased his average by 5 ppg and flashed that ridiculous ceiling averaging 115 over the first 8 with a high of 189. With another pre-season under his belt I think he can have a breakout in year 5 to push into that 115+ bracket. I really want to start him but it's tough to start him over Bont, Laird, Butters and the other handful of guys I already have at M1-M4.

Walsh - Injury saw him start his season in round 5 last year. He played a lot more HFF and rotated through the CB's with Docherty only attending 55% (which actually equalled his 2022 number), however come finals he attended 67, 58 and 79% for scores of 111, 134 and 121. He is one of the best runners I have ever seen which allows him to get to so many contests and win possession, having a full pre-season where he isn't hampered by his back should see him spike back into the 110 range pretty easily compared to the 103 he is currently priced at. His year where he averaged 117 he attended 68% of the CBA's and I don't think he will get back to that number of CBA's this year with the Blues current depth in the midfield unless there are injuries to Cripps or Cerra. At his price he is a pretty good option and if he does continue to rotate through half forward he could be an early chance at DPP. I think opening round is important when deciding to pick Walsh as we can get an early look at him in a real game and use the role/score to help make a final decision.

Tim Kelly - He had a surprisingly good year considering how bad the Eagles were. It was about a point less than his career best 2019, however he is still around 10 ppg off the top end mids. He is one I am looking at as a potential M8/M9 loop option later in the season but he is out as a starting option.

Rowell - Like Anderson, I can see Rowell breaking out this year. He has a monster ceiling, attends the most CBA's of any GCS mid, wins an insane amount of clearances, tackles and contested ball. The missing link is the uncontested game where he gets about 8 a game which ranks at a tied 305 of all players in the comp. If he can add that this year he will go 110+ pretty easily. Like Anderson, I think I'd rather take the punt with one of the other mids considering his price and look at him down the track.

Cogs - He went back into the midfield full time last year and stayed around that ton mark. I don't think he will ever push into that elite mid category due to his odd clunker that he has a few times a season, so a pass for me.

Kelly - If I was to pick a mid not named Tom Green for GWS, Kelly is that guy. After 4 straight seasons around that 115 mark, Kelly has declined the last 3 years. He was averaging 113.7 up until an injury (the week I traded him in last year) that saw him miss a chunk of time. He still has an insane ceiling and normally a relatively high floor, but his body is what lets him down more often than not. Probably a pass for now.

Docherty - As a pure mid I can't pick him, but why I am flagging him right now is he could get DPP. The Blues looked to use him as a half forward flank rotating through the midfield last year before injury struck and he played more full time mid. I can see him assuming the same role and if he gets early DPP he is going to be a lock in the forward line. EDIT - torn ACL 😭

Warner - Picked as a potential breakout option last year, Warner didn't quite hit the highs that some expected him to reach. He has that X-Factor about him but may be a couple seasons off truly becoming a SC option. 118 to start this year is fantastic but he isn't someone I'd want to start and take the risk on. Pass.

Newcombe - An interesting stat I remember reading last year is that Newcombe will play at the level of his competition. When he came up against the elite teams, his profile in the critical stat categories was elite. He has a huge ceiling busting out a 174 against the Dogs and is only heading into his 3rd full season since he was a midseason draft pick. As a smoky breakout contender Newcombe may be one that surprises a few, especially if he can raise his floor with 2 sub 60 scores last year. He is one I will look at as an upgrade target if he does have one or two of those stinkers as he could be a cheap option that produces fantastic numbers at the pointy end of the season. I do think the risk outweighs the reward in starting him.

Miller - After back to back 120 seasons, Miller had a horrendous season last year due to both injuries and form. Taking out the injury score he averaged about 102.5 but struggled to get going once he returned from injury. Watching the games it felt like his role had changed. He was an elite contested possession winner and tackling machine in 2021 and 2022. He will definitely be better than the 97.6 he is priced at, but with Rowell and Anderson coming through, will his average in that 120 region again? He started the season with a 116, however 2 numbers that make me worry are 4 tackles and 7 contested possessions out of 28. It's about 2 to 3 tackles and 5 to 8 contested possessions a game down on the elite seasons he had in the past. The contested numbers and clearances may be down due to Rowell's insane game on the weekend, but maybe he is playing more of that outside style of game to accommodate. He was in one of my initial drafts but I'm thinking he may be a better wait and see option. I don't think the Suns will sustain all of Rowell, Anderson, Miller and Flanders being 110+ scorers, Rowell and Anderson seem to have better contested numbers early which are more important in SC, but I don't see Miller sitting on the outside every week. I just think playing the waiting game might be better to see which one or two break back into that top end category, especially with the bye playing in the opening round.

Cripps - A contested possession beast, Cripps saw his average drop back down to 97.5 from the 111 the year prior. He hasn't quite captured that 2018/2019 SC form for extended periods of time, part of that is what he is asked to do and how banged up he gets in the second half of the season. He had a bit of a knock against the Lions with someone falling across his leg, but he brushed it off and was really critical around the clearances getting Carlton back into the game. I don't think he can get back to that elite level, but depending on how his body holds up he may be a shrewd pick around the byes  if he has a couple of those clunkers. The Dunkley matchup is one he has struggled with and he ended up finishing with an 84 which isn't awful.

Steele - Averaging 122.5 in 2020, 126 in 2021 and then declining to have a 109.8 and 94.8 the last two years. He did have a couple of injuries which probably contributed to that dip, particularly in 2022 where he averaged close to 120 over the first 7, but last year also felt like a bit of regression and he was struggling to really impact games. He still showcased his ceiling with a 140 and 160, but there were 13 games he had under 25 touches and 2 that he had under 15. I personally will not be starting him, he is under-priced for what he is capable of, but he was also under-priced last year and regressed. Pass for me.

De Goey - As a mid I don't think I have really considered him as an option. Why is he on the list? He can impact games off a low amount of touches and has a pretty good ceiling. I don't think you'll see consistency out of him and that showed up in the opening round. He may not be a bad M9 option if he bottoms out because you could potentially loop him for some of his bigger scores.

Crouch - It looks like Crouch is back in favour at the Crows and he makes for a really tempting option. If you take out the game where he came on as a sub and he averaged 108 which is right around his 2020 average of 110.7. He has no problems finding the ball and at a discounted price of 490k he is an appealing option. He scored 114 in the practice match off 59% TOG which is just nuts. My only worry with him, and the reason why he isn't a lock, is he firmly in the 22 or is there a chance he falls out? Nicks hasn't been a big fan of him and while he played the last 6 games last year, does he get pushed out again? Risk reward does seem worth it, however I think I can only fit in one guy around this price point if I do start them.

[Mat0369]

Mids 2.0

Hewett - I thought Hewett would back up his breakout 2022 last year and be an elite mid. That was not to be, he was vested multiple times and had some injury issues, eventually his price plummeted, I pounced and he was an amazing cheap M9. He had a bit of a shut down job on Neale and looked crisp in conditions a lot of the other Carlton players struggled in. 27 touches and a 106 to start the year is amazing for a guy priced at 440k a perfect stepping stone/M8 option. I really want to start him, but like Crouch, I don't know if I can fit him in and with the R2 bye he may be better as a wait and see corrective trade for an underperforming player.

Hopper - The Hopper hype didn't produce the desired results last year, injuries struck just as he looked to be turning the corner and he stalled as a stepping stone. The Tigers have a new coach, he is a year removed from the injuries that hampered him at the Giants and he is in his prime just turning 27. Priced at about 440k I see him in that stepping stone range, but you probably want close to 100 from Hopper and couple of big games to make it easy to trade to a top end gun.  Having played the opening round, we got a bit of an early look at him. He was tied third for CBA's with 17, behind Naismith and Taranto and tied with Dow. 13 of his 23 touches were contested against the Suns which is a great sign and he kicked 2 goals to help boost that score. He only managed a 97 and his tackle numbers were quite low with 2, I would expect a better output in future games. He seems like he could push into that 105 bracket, but I think I'd take the risk elsewhere this year.

Wines - This an option that I didn't really consider early until I looked into it a bit more. Wines has had one season where he would be considered a real premium, that was 2021 where he averaged 112.5 and averaged 121.5 from round 9 until the prelim final. The year after he dropped to an average of 105.5 and if you take out the sub score he averages 110.75. Looking at his CBA's, he attended 74% in 2021 and 71% in 2022. Last year was a changing of the guard, Rozee (69%) and Butters (62%) became the predominant CB mids, while Horne-Francis (58%), Drew (50%) and Wines (50%) rotated as that third. By all reports, it sounds like he is going to up his CBA's and is much fitter than this time last year when he was struggling with a knee. At his price and with the move back to a more inside role, he seems like a lock. Right now I think I'm tossing up between Crouch and Wines for that spot with Hewett coming in third.

Matt Kennedy - A bit of a random name to add in, Kennedy never lived up to the hype of where he was picked in the draft, was delisted and relisted as a player but doesn't have a clear role. He is an inside mid that is forced to play out of position due to Carlton's inside mid depth, when he does get the opportunity he has proved he can score. With only 5 CBA's against the Lions he is an easy pass.

Nic Martin - Originally not on my list but I've added him in. I didn't consider him when he became a mid only option compared to M/F DPP and it sounds like he will have a change in role moving to half back. He had a month last year where he scored about 120+ each game and fell down the stretch. Why I am not considering him, he is almost 500k, has no scoring history at the position and can't be picked at his price point in hopes of gaining DPP when his role could change again. Easy pass at his price point, I can't seeing him average 100-105 which would be needed for the top end defenders and if he is still prone to a clunker that could be a disaster.

Gaff - He averaged around 107 for 3 straight seasons before falling off a cliff the last 3 years. He has really struggled for form and while he played 23 games last year he was the sub in one of those. He broke the ton a total of 3 times last year and it's a big drop from someone that you could almost pencil in for 30 and a ton at his peak. I have him listed due to his price, he is under 400k and if he can get any sort of form back to his prime he would be a lock. I just think at his age he is probably past it.

Shiel - Injuries and a lack of defensive effort have probably ruined Shiel's last couple of seasons. He gets a decent run at it but a phantom injury will pop up and stop him in his tracks. At his best he is a burst player that can average close to the ton, it's just hard to see that each week. At 388k he could turn out to be a decent stepping stone, but I'm pretty sure he is out for round 1 with injury and I can't trust him to stay fit so pass.

Bruhn - It sounds like Bruhn is going to get a crack as a more permeant inside mid along with Holmes and Clark after listening to Scott talk on AFL 360 tonight. They are having a changing of the guard at the Cats and getting these young inside mids more of a run in that position. Bruhn had his shot early last year and really struggled to make an impact. I think with another year under his belt he will be a lot better, I just don't think I can pay 390k for a guy that may not improve enough to become a real stepping stone. Pass for me.

Duursma - Over his first 3 seasons he was a mid to low 70 scorer on the wing for Port. Between the injuries and falling out of favour, his scores plummeted. If mid options were tight I can see the value in starting him as a mid price option, but I don't think he will average more than 80 and that's a best case scenario. Pass.

Boak - On here for name value, I think Port may look to phase Boak out. He isn't going to see the CBA minutes that he has in years past and he isn't a true wing to impact games in that role. Easy pass.

Fiorini - A high possession mid for the Suns that's nicely priced at 360k. He has had some pretty good scores in the past and with a new coach and having a decent crack at it he could provide a value pick. He ended up scoring 101 in the opening round and could end up skyrocketing in price before the initial price rise in round 2. I don't think I can pick him but the value is there as long as he avoids the vest.

Hunter Clark - A name I look at every year and a name that disappoints. He just can't seem to get any continuity and ends up with a freak injury every year. He is expected to miss the start of the season due to injury, easy pass.

Dylan Stephens - Change of clubs and some stability in a role might see him flourish at North. Around 325k but I can't pick him with better options available. I had him on this list originally if there was a shortage on mid price options but there are much better players available.

Brodie - He was a star for those that started him 2 years ago before completely falling out of favour at the Dockers last year. I can't see him getting games again this year and he will be insurance when Fyfe or one of the other inside mids goes down. At his price an easy pass.

Dow - New club at the Saints might see Dow get some consistent games. I think his disposal and lack of tank will continue to hurt him, he isn't good enough with ball in hand and he can't cover the ground consistently to rack up uncontested possessions. At just over 300k he is a pass if he gets named.

Sheldrick - I thought with the Swans injuries he might get an early crack in the midfield. He was fantastic last year before the injury and passes the eye test. He can play but unfortunately didn't make the cut for opening round. Pass at 300k

Parfitt - He is entering his prime and seemed like a mid that was capable of averaging 80 each year while solidifying himself in the Cats midfield rotation. Last year he fell out of that rotation and was the sub more often than not. At just under 300k he could be a nice option if he gets a crack back in that midfield rotation. He could easily bounce back to an 80 average and scored 121 in the last game of the season last year. An interesting quick cash option but without the job security and at his price he is a pass.

Fletcher - He should be best 22 for the Lions this season and played pretty well at the back end of the season. At his price you probably want an 80 to 90 average and I don't know if he takes that step. He was disappointing against the Blues with 10 touches and a 49. Easy pass right now.

Bonner - A pre-season superstar, Bonner lit up the practice games and is tempting to slot into my team. He has done the same thing in the past and never been more than a mid 60's to low 70's type of player. Mason Wood resurrected his career at the Saints and there is every chance Bonner does the same, but without Sinclair in the team does his role change when he returns and does he revert back to form. At his price I would hold off and use a corrective trade if he breaks out.

Lyons - I thought he may have been vest bound and just about done at his age, but far out, tonight he absolutely killed it for the Lions. 19 touches, 9 tackles and looked pretty good in that midfield. With Dev Robertson and Ashcroft out I'm wondering if he holds in that spot and could be an excellent cash cow at 250kish.

Zak Jones - He currently has a concussion but he is one of the other forgotten men. The Saints don't really have many mids like Jones where he can break away from contests and if he is fit he would be pretty close to their best 22. Injuries and personal issues have seen him miss significant time, yet they gave him a one year deal so they must have some plans. When he is up and going he is a 90 average player which is a steal at his price. One to consider as maybe a sideways corrective trade.

Cook - He played one game for a 70 last year, looked decent and seemed primed to maybe push into the 22. Doesn't look like that's eventuated so he is a pass.

Harry Sharp - He has teased when he comes into the side but I don't really see him as anything other than someone that will tempt you and then burn you.  Not sure if the Coleman injury sees him get a look in, but a pass

Sam Berry - Last year he had some injury niggled and ended up with a pretty poor average after a breakout 86.9 the year before. The worry with the Crows is does he fit in the best 22, especially with Crouch back in favour. He had a great pre-season game, is basically rookie priced and is a tackling machine which gives him an okay floor before the possessions. If he is named Round 1 he will be tempting, however he is also a vest candidate and with the stupid extended bench you would want someone to be able to swap him to at the last minute. He is on my shortlist along with Lyons, Bonner and a handful of others for M5/M6.

Maginness - Super cheap and the Hawks number one tagger. I feel like he isn't going to score many points or win much of the ball, hence the price, but if he can add some offence to his game he may be a decent expensive rookie pick.

Jeremy Sharp - There is a wing spot up for grabs at the Dockers, Sharp was a player they targeted a couple off-seasons ago before they got him as a delisted FA this year. He has had a pretty good pre-season and is looking like a front runner for that spot, he is a lock for a spot on the bench right now and may even be my M8 to start the year.

[Mat0369]

Rucks

English - He was the clear cut number 1 last year averaging 14 ppg better than number 2. This was off the back of a huge first half to his 2022 season. At 26 he is right in his prime and had an excellent showing in the pre-season game. I have him locked into my R1 spot for the time being as he can produce such monster scores each week.

Marshall - The clear number 2 in points last year, Marshall bounced back as a solo ruck after an injury struck season the year prior. He averaged a whopping 132 over his last 6, but at his price I see value with other options that could jump ahead of him.

Briggs - The surprise packet of last year, Briggs was amazing when he came in and took over the number one ruck mantle. It is hard to pick him off such a small sample size, but if the form carries over he could be a top 3 ruck come the end of the season and the clear cut number 2. At his price the risk is too high so it's a pass.

Witts - After a season in 2022 where he finished as a top 2 ruck, Witts dropped about 3 ppg to be the R4 in total points. He is a consistent option with his high hit out to advantage numbers and a strong midfield at his feet. He isn't a sexy pick, but he is one that will be at the top end at the end of the year but maybe not quite good enough. With only two rucks to pick I prefer other options.

Darcy - I started him last year and traded him out just before round 3, that was a disaster move. He went on a roll over the next 7 averaging 124.5. He did eventually get injured on 2 separate occasions and missed the last 6 games of the year.  He is a high upside option with the ability to score 130 each week, my worry with Darcy is his body since he is always banged up. Right now he is a pass but he could be someone to sideways trade to later down the track. EDIT - Darcy ruled out round 1 after arthroscopic knee surgery.

Gawn - The sole ruck is tempting with Gawn, but the numbers last year were pretty sketchy for a chunk of the season. He had some ridiculous scores once Grundy was dropped including a 215 against the Lions, but he is another year older and he was showing his age. He had a dominant pre-season game against the Blues which adds to the temptation. I think I'll hold off for now and assess after the opening round match where he will come up against Grundy. Maybe the winner of that battle is my R2.

Nank - In doubt for the start of the season but an interesting pick, he had his best season in a while but was injured for large chunks. His body says no, he isn't even in consideration for now.

ROB - His best ability is availability. He isn't an elite SC ruck even though he has been on the cusp of taking that next step. Pass for me

Goldy - I have no idea if he is going to be running around in their 22 and he makes no sense with Draper the R1. Could be an interesting pick if he gets forward status and Draper get an LTI.

McInerney - I can't see him taking the next step to be in that top batch of rucks. It's weird because I would have thought with the contested bulls the Lions have that he could push into a Witts like category but hasn't. Pass for me.

Cameron - Was an excellent option as a forward when he was healthy, he struggled to really get going after the early injury and I don't think he is worth the risk as a ruck only. I can't pick him as a sole ruck with better options available. Pass.

Blicavs - Essentially an extra mid, Blicavs is an interesting option. I don't think he will be in that 110 plus category and if he does get DPP it is not something that can generally be used for coverage. Pass for me.

Flynn - Injured early but was primed for the R1 spot at the Eagles. Probably a pass pre injury but definitely now due to missing time.

Soldo - Port have a new ruck and that man is Soldo. He attended 16 CB's compared to Sweet's 9 and looks to be the preferred option. I don't like his scoring power even as the number 1 ruck so he is a pass.

Grundy - Wayyyyy under priced thanks to his time as a key forward last year. Grundy has been locked into my side as my R1/R2 from the start. He can put in the occasional clunker, but he is one of very few rucks that could score 120 every  week and priced at about 480k. This pick is an absolute no-brainer

Xerri - I had him in my side with Grundy up until his injury and it made me panic with this pick. He has flashed the ability to score and he is the undisputed R1 with Goldy gone, he just appears to get injured at the most inopportune times. He looked great against Marshall and the Saints, but I think I would rather go with a lower risk pick in English. Still super tempting.

Williams - With Flynn out injured he probably takes the number 1 mantle again. I don't see him as anything other than below average so a pass.

Draper - We still haven't really seen a breakout from Draper and I personally don't think we will. He is one of those players that can do something miraculous, will compete, but he won't ever be an elite SC ruck. Pass.

TDK - I feel like he will play more forward to start the season which isn't great for his fantasy output. He will be an interesting option if he ever gets an extended crack as the number 1 option, I just don't think it will happen in the near future.

McLean - Started to really hit his straps towards the second half of the season with some decent scores. Is more a forward/ruck than a ruck/forward and has DPP. He is one to keep an eye on for coverage if he becomes a legit forward threat that can pop up with some great scores. Pass for now but watch for coverage later.

Stanley - Past his prime, injury prone and may even get pushed out of the team this year. Easy pass.

Pitto - With Silvagni out for the season, I think Pitto gets the number 1 ruck role at the Blues to allow TDK to play as the third tall. There is no genuine back up ruck option at the Blues so I see them carrying both rucks. I also think with both guys splitting time neither will be fantasy relevant.

Reeves - He probably has the number 1 ruck mantle at the Hawks, I just don't think he has the ability to really stand out as a premium option. Clear pass at his price.

Meek - I really like Meek, if he was the sole ruck for a team I think he could average similar to what Briggs did last year. The downside is he is not only sharing ruck duties when he plays, but he isn't even the primary option behind Reeves. He is worth consideration if there is a long term injury to Reeves, otherwise pass.

Preuss - If Briggs was to cop a long term injury at some point in the season, Preuss looks like a value 300k option. He can score while playing that lone ruck role, but it would require that injury for him to be potentially considered.

Sweet - I thought he may be a chance to take Ports number one ruck spot, however that firmly looks like Soldo's spot. He has shown flashes of ability when at the Dogs and I didn't mind him as a super cheap guy with high upside. In contention for that R3 spot.

Kreuger - I thought he may have been a chance to replace McStay and has shown some flashes of scoring potential. A hamstring injury in the VFL scratch match sees him out early regardless. Pass

Naismith - Probably the new fave for R3 with Nank possibly missing some early games. If we can get enough out of him for a price rise or 2 that would be ideal. EDIT - Nank officially out opening round, if he misses round 1 as well and Naismith plays well he makes perfect sense at R3.

[enzedder]

Pmed you

[Mat0369]

Pmed you

Just saw this and replied

[Mat0369]

I'm nowhere near done but I'm going to keep trying to update it over the weekend

[Mat0369]

I'll try and finish the mids and forwards when I get home from work tonight and then post some lineups I've been playing around with. It's funny because my team is looking more like my team when SC Gold first opened

[Mat0369]

A little bit of a reshuffle with me running out of characters agin

Forwards

Macrae - The forward line isn't very deep this year and Macrae is a former gun in the midfield. The last time he was available as a forward was a long time ago and he was an absolute lock that season. With uncertainty around his role and the way the Dogs throw the magnets around he may not reach the heights of past seasons. He needs to be a centre square player to provide the output you want from a truly elite mid, but even in that wing half forward role he is still probably in the top handful of forwards early. He had a niggle through pre-season and should hopefully be right for round 1, but I feel like he may be a better wait and see option. He was my original F1, however I feel like the value route in the forward line with a wait and see approach may be the go.

Jackson - Did a lot of damage when Darcy went out and he became the sole ruck. Darcy is out for a couple weeks to start the season and Jackson could get off to a hot start. Personally I would avoid unless there is a long term injury to Darcy.

Curnow - He has a monster ceiling and that sees him in the top handful of available forwards. I really love him as a player, but I am always sceptical of key forwards and their consistency. Looking at his first month, he also comes up against Brisbane, Richmond and GWS in the first 5 games. I think I would hold off, wait for a stinker and maybe grab him as a cheap option down the track.

Bolton - A couple years ago I traded Bolton into my side when he looked to finally break out. He had an amazing game that night, took a mark of the year contender and then broke his hand in a fight at a nightclub. What looked like a genius move had miraculously backfired. He had his best season last year and he showed that his ceiling is massive. Unfortunately his lows are really low and you end up with a sub 60 game that could cost you your matchup.  He had 8 touches and scored a 72 vs GC and that was enough for me to put a line through him. The inconsistency looks like it may be a factor again and he is worth looking at down the stretch after some clunkers as an F7 option.

Dusty - He actually had his best season since 2020 last year and the advanced stats were pretty favourable for Dusty down the stretch. From Round 17 until the end of the season he was dominant averaging 118.  Another year older and missing opening round with a calf injury leaves some question marks around his body, but he may be a really underrated option as a forward if he does carry on that form. Personally I would hold off.

Daniel - I'm hearing sub rumours for Daniel which is pretty huge heading into Round 1. He has fallen out of favour at the Dogs with the inclusions of Coffield down back, Bramble as a potential wing/half back and Harmes as a mid forward. He is essentially positionless and I don't think the Dogs know what to do with him from what I'm reading. It's interesting because his biggest weapon is his disposal and the other 3 are questionable with their ball use. Either way, the rumours are enough to have me steer clear of him as an option.

Greene - My big worry with Toby is his ability to miss games. He only missed 2 last year, but has missed chunks previous years through injury or suspension. He is so influential with limited touches and his ability to turn a game that he is a fantastic F6 option down the track. I think I would rather wait for an injury/down game and grab him on the cheap at some point.

Moore - After averaging 94.6 in 2022, Moore averaged 91 last year. He can push up the ground and rotate through the midfield to get involved in the play and seems to finish the season strongly averaging around 98 in the last 8 rounds. He is in doubt for round 1 but could be a nice upgrade target if he starts the season slowly.

Flanders - He was an extremely popular pick early last year at a much cheaper price point, he went on to disappoint, get injured and burn those that started him. Once he returned in round 15 he averaged 106 down the stretch which is huge. I think on upside alone he is an extremely tempting option and a candidate for F1.

Walker - He is defying father time and hitting some of his best form at the tail end of his career. The 89.5 was one point less than last year and about 10 points below his career high 100.2 in 2012, but like Bolton, he has shown that his ceiling is amazing with scores of 130, 208, 157 and 167. He also had scores of 37 and 38 which are potential disasters. The high standard deviation is enough for me to stay away.

Heeney - It was spoken about that he would play far more midfield, he backed that up tonight with 13 clearances, 14 CBA's, 18 contested possessions and a goal. He is a pretty special player when he is up and going and this looks to be the season where he is fully fit and may take advantage. Another forward line candidate with the lack of real options. It's hard not to lock him in though after the opening round performance.

Jeremy Cameron - He is the smoky that I've really contemplated picking and here is why. Last year he started the season on fire before picking up some niggles and then having the horrific concussion. He averaged 114.5 in that dominant period over the first 6 weeks. In 2022 he averaged 91 which would be good enough to price him at 508k and F7. He starts the year against the Saints who don't have their first choice FB due to injury, the Crows who are thin at the KPD spot, the Hawks who are decimated, the Dogs who may struggle to have a matchup for him and then North. He could start the year with an absolute bang, but the worry is will he have those stinkers later in the season. Tempting but probably down my pecking list for the time being.

Keays -He went back into the midfield for the Crows from around rounds 11 to 18 last year and had a great patch scoring 5 tons in 7 games. He then moved back forward when Crouch came back and proceeded to struggle. He will be a player to pick dependant on role. If the Crows are injury hit at some point and he does move back into the midfield he provides value, as long as he stays in that midfield role. Otherwise pass.

Hawkins - He has been a sneaky fave of mine in previous seasons, with his form in the second half of the season being much better than the first. Last year was a bit of a struggle trying to come back from an injury and be ready for the start of the season along with age catching up to him. Right now I unfortunately can't see a reason to pick him so pass.

Adams - He was one I had locked into my forward line early with his midfield role at the Swans but injury killed that. Pass.

Caldwell - A first round pick that hasn't lived up to his potential, Caldwell has had flashes and when he has finally looked good he has had an injury to slow him down. The Bombers midfield is a bit of a crap show so I think at 437k with a number of names to run through there I would stay away. Pass.

Bailey - He is here on name value. Bailey has been spoken about as a breakout contender for what feels like the last 3 years but he hasn't taken that step. He probably spends too much time up forward and can go in and out of games because of it. He is impactful, but probably not fantasy relevant. Pass.

Ainsworth - I feel like he should have had a breakout by now. He was the number 4 pick in his draft year and never averaged over 76.4. He was supposed to move into the middle at some point and become that hybrid but never did. He started opening round off with a 69 and not much seems to have changed on that front. Pass.

Lukosius - Another one that I thought would have broken out by now, but I think a lack of continuity at a position has hurt him. At 425k you would want to be certain that he does break out and I don't have that confidence in him this year. He did have a nice start to the season with a 93 and 3 goals from 10 touches in opening round. Still a pass.

Lipinski - He had a pretty good 2022 at the Pies after moving from the Dogs. He is another that has probably suffered from a lack of continuity but has shown the ability to potentially break out. An injury interrupted season last year saw him take a step back, he was the sub in last years grand final win having 16 touches and 5 tackles. I don't know if he will take the next step and become a 90+ player, the 87 from opening round was a decent score, but priced around 390k are there better options? Pass for now.

Pickett - He was suspended for opening round but is due back for round 1. He was supposed to breakout last year with more time in the middle, started with a bang and a suspension, didn't hit the ton after round 7 with some stinkers in there and only attended 11% of the CBA's by the end of the season. Similar price to last season and I would expect a similar role. Pass.

Fisher - The original report was that Fish was moving for opportunity and would be playing in North's midfield and not out of position like he had been at the Blues. Turns out he will be playing out of position like he did at the Blues. I was a little sceptical on if the decision to play him at HB would stick, but it looks like North are going to persist with it. Carlton had some injuries late in the season and Fish came in to play HBF and looked great when linking up out of defence but was exposed by his opponents when having to defend. He is not a natural defender at all. He had scores of 126, 53, 96 and 61 in that period and his lowest possession count was 24. Right now I have him in my side after a pre-season game where he won 36 possessions. He can butcher the ball but he is normally a pretty good user by foot.

Gresham - He was a name I had locked in when SC opened but has made his way out as pre-season has progressed. Why did I pick him? He is one of 5 players in the comp that averages 18 possessions and a goal through their career along with Dusty, Danger, De Goey and Greene. I thought he may get a little more time around the CBA's which could also see his average climb. He didn't see a single CBA in the pre-season so he goes out.

Stringer - Too inconsistent and injury prone, even at 360k he is a pass.

Ugle-Hagan - I have him here because I think he may go close to winning the Coleman this year. Last season I saw some really special flashes from Ugle-Hagan as a player and he seems primed to take over this year. If he pushes for that Coleman medal it will put him in a similar scoring range to Curnow, he is also priced at a far cheaper 338k. I'm holding off for now as I like some other mid price options better, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him push his average to the 85-90 territory.

Humphrey - He had a nice stretch last year when he had a proper run in the midfield, however with all the Suns mids back I think he gets squeezed out in year 2. He will be an option at some point, but it's probably a couple years from now. The 38 and limited CBA opportunities in the opening round cements that, pass for now.

Tom Powell - Powell burst onto the scene his rookie season and averaged 67.7 and looked like he could be a mainstay in the North midfield. He has struggled for form and opportunity the last couple of seasons, but heading into year 4 it is looking like a make or break season for him. I think he will get an early opportunity if pre-season was an indication, but at 312k you would want him to break out and at push for a 90 average or some huge scores in quick succession to get his price up. Risk doesn't outweigh the reward so it's a pass for me.

Gunston - Returns to the Hawks after one season with the Lions, Gunston is not the same player he was a couple of years ago and age is catching up. He may get a crack in the Hawks 22 with a lack of talls available, but I don't think he can recapture his form as he looked cooked last year. Priced at just under 300k, there are better options available.

Ginnivan - He had 3 sub scores last year during the season which sees him moderately priced at just under 300k. A new club where I would expect him to firmly be in the best 22, however as  a small forward at that price I expect his scoring to be volatile with a number of clunkers thrown in. Pass.

Tom Lynch - He was my first picked mid price forward as soon as SC opened. Then the setback came and he was in doubt for R1. Lynch averaged 94 in 2022 and should at least make some decent coin if he is fit and firing. I really want to still pick him, but there are some other options that popped up over the pre-season that seem like they could either outscore him or at least be available without the injury risk.

Phillipou - Another second year guy that flashed in his first season, Phillipou could take a big jump in year 2. I think the risk outweighs the reward with cheaper options that provide better value, but if he gets a nice chunk of the CBA's like he did in the pre-season, he could be a steal at his price and an excellent stepping stone. Out of my team for now.

Fyfe - Back in the midfield and back in my team. I still worry he is going to come out round 1, really struggle, put up a clunker and then take the next 10 weeks off with a phantom injury. While I have had him in since SC opened, I have also been thinking it might be worth getting him out of my side for the time being. I think I want to try a different forward structure and no Fyfe could be the way.

James Jordon - New club and and a new opportunity to cement himself in the 22 of the Swans midfield. He looked great through pre-season and looked to make the wing spot his own.  He had a slow start against his former team, but finished 18 touches and an 81 which is the expectation from someone priced around 275k. I have him locked in as either a mid of forward depending on rookies. But he is currently in my side.

Chol - New club for Chol who left a team that Hardwick was coaching for a second time. He fell out of favour at the Suns prior to that and has gone to the Hawks who could use a ruck/forward. He averaged 68 two years ago, but at his price I don't think he will score enough to make a decent amount of cash. Pass.

Mackenzie - Heading into his second season and he had some amazing patches between being managed and the sub. He could see a bigger role in his second year, the Hawks injury list isn't great and natural improvement could see his scoring spike. At around 270k I think he is too expensive to take the punt when I could have Jordan for around 5k more. Pass.

Harmes - I've soured a little bit on Harmes after having him in my team all of the pre-season. I feel like the Dogs are pretty set with their CBA lineups of Bont, Libba and Treloar with some Harmes, Macrae and Sanders mixed in. I worry that he may be a vest candidate and that playing more forward might not see him bounce back to that 80-90 range. At 258k the risk is definitely worth it, but I have had a slight change to my structure and if I'm picking one of Harmes or Jordon I'm leaning towards Jordon.

Dev Robertson - An early injury has him out of not only the Lions team, but mine as well. At 253k he isn't really a downgrade option either but would have been an early stepping stone option.

Tsatas - A high pick by the Bombers, Tsatas was a popular rookie pick last year before injury at training saw him start his season late. He came in to play the last 4 rounds for the Bombers which unfortunately saw his price spike for this season. With his talent and his price he is in consideration for my forward line, I do prefer some other players that have a bit of a history compared to the unproven Tsatas, but if he lives up to his draft hype he could be an excellent starting pick in year 2.

Billings - He had some strong pre-season form and a scoring history at the Saints that would make for an excellent rookie pick. However in practice he was the sub and had 2 ineffective disposals when he came on to have 0% DE at the end of the game. Pass.

Georgiades - He has been a sub 60 average player every year, but why you would pick him is job security if healthy. He has probably been pushed out with Finlayson returning to form, Dixon healthy and Marshall the next best option. I think the only reason you would pick him is jobs security but he doesn't seem to have that at the moment either. He is the right age to break out, but he probably needs the opportunity that he could lack early.

Jack Hayes - Injured and will miss the start of the season. Potential 'downgrade' target. He had some excellent performances year 1 and could make some decent coin if he hits that good form again.

Cumberland - Has a ton of talent but struggled to get games last year. He seems to have some brain fades which pushes him out of the 22. Named emergency so a pass.

Taberner -  2021 he kicked almost 40 goals and averaged around 66. The two seasons prior to that were in the 70's but every other year is underwhelming. I was surprised to see he is 30, but he is one of few players that can provide a key target for the Dockers up forward. An option if the forward line is thin, but more likely a pass.

Fantasia - I thought he might sneak in some early games but his scoring potential the last few seasons has been putrid. He is often injured and had low impact in the Round 0 game. My gut says he gets the sub vest next week.

Finlay Macrae - He was one they flagged for a better chance in the 22 with the Adams departure and a popular rookie option. Opening Round teams are out and he is outside the 23. Even if he is named next week on the bench I would avoid. High chance of a sub risk.

Cadman - On the 'bench' for opening round but the former number one pick should see a pretty good run at it. High upside option but with young key forwards there are too many clunkers. Probably pass with other options available.

Darcy - A few years into his career and struggled to get a run at it, pre-season reports were pretty good on the track but he didn't end up playing in the pre-season game. He is primed for a breakout year with his talent, but he may not have the early opportunity. Downgrade target.

[GoldDigger]

Thx Mat.

[Mat0369]

Some of my lineups I have played around with. This is my most recent team that I played around with on Friday night. I have 5.3k left in the bank



This was one of my earlier drafts from a few weeks ago that looking at it now I really like. 9.8k free



Easy changes for this team would be Pink to Howes, Billings to Roberts using Reid.

I'm thinking I do a full delete and start from scratch with the players I really want and fill it out from there.

[arbel]

Really like the Short pick was a good first game and if he's back to that floating half back role could make cash.
Lyons another interesting pick. If he can score that consistent for that price is a good get.

I think if selecting Reid he needs to be in forward line. Some nice picks though

[Mat0369]

Short was in my very first draft but made his way out when I saw Chapman's price. With Chapman injured I've got him back in as my D3 and the role is one he excels at.

That team with Reid in the midfield was more trying to fit the BPA on field and he would loop with Sanders and fitting in all those forward options. He has been in my forward line in basically every other draft. I actually had a play around with my team yesterday and have come up with couple of more lineups I really like.



About 31k with this team and some rookie flexibility. Windsor and Duursma are a bit more expensive so I don't have to search for cash if guys aren't named



21.8k in the bank, I also have the cash to go LDU to Libba if I want which I also really like.

I'm thinking if Seth Campbell and Carroll are both named in the starting 22 that they can sit at M11 and F8. Campbell has a 70 odd in his rotation from round 1 and will get the early price rise.

[arbel]

Like the first team. Yeah looks like Campbell held his spot even with all the big names coming back in. My worry is could he be a vest candidate and with Lynch and Martin coming in he may not see a lot more of the ball but don't think he's in many teams so could be a good pick and yes early price rise.