The Watchlist - 2023 Edition

[Ringo]

Personally going JVR. With a score of only 42 and negative B/E predicted to rise 52k which may see his price exceed Ryan. Point on Ruck coverage is good though,

[Mat0369]

Personally going JVR. With a score of only 42 and negative B/E predicted to rise 52k which may see his price exceed Ryan. Point on Ruck coverage is good though,

I think he looks to be the better scorer, but the JS could be the issue. My mate sent me a screenshot of a tweet earlier. I'll post it when I get home from work since it will be easier to upload

[Mat0369]

This was the tweet he sent me

Gawn is listed as 1-2 weeks away on the injury report. If they're picking him as the 2nd ruck he could potentially be out next week. I watched a grab from the press conference and he said he likes to play 3 talls in the forward line so I think he will play this week. It just depends how quickly Gawn is back

[Mat0369]

Round 5

Score: 2358
Rank: 53,923
Round Rank: 5,622
Cash: $190,700

Trades

Cunnington>Ryan
Doc>Stewart




Good: Dawson, Stewart, Jones, Wilmot, Oliver, Neale, Hopper, Ashcroft, Setters, Marshall, Grundy, Dunkley, Ziebell, Sheezel, Greene, Phillipou
Pass: LDU, Green, Hollands, Rozee
Bad: McKenna, Ginbey, Cowan, Baker, Ryan, Gulden
Ugly: Mackenzie and accidentally fielding Cowan instead of Wilmot

Much better week this week with a little bounce back. A couple of self inflicted wounds like accidentally fielding Cowan in the mad rush to swap Constable back to my bench.

Trades were solid. Stewart was a certain win, Ryan and Van Rooyen both scored poorly so that was a wash. I have royally screwed up trades earlier in the year (Green instead of Daicos and Darcy out are the two that really stand out) but it looks like Stewart has been a good pick up.

This week I need to make some moves. Ginbey and Mackenzie may have both topped out. Initially my plan was going to be Setters to a gun mid and then maybe downgrade Mackenzie. Some interesting DPP changes this week has me contemplating something different. I actually have enough cash to go Ginbey to Cogs in one trade using Ziebell. Mackenzie getting forward status makes him a decent looking forward rookie although that 14 is going to stunt his cash gen and it may be worth just dumping him now.

It feels like there are a lack of genuine rookie options that haven't been vested a number of times. Roberts has played well when given the opportunity, but he is every chance of being the sub again. Johnson is the other cheap name that stands out, but I don't know if he holds his spot for the next 3 to 4 weeks. Brockman has gone through a price rise and Dylan Williams has been average with his scoring but may be a forward option. If Mitchell holds his spot he is an ideal downgrade option when on the bubble as a half back flank with DEF/FWD DPP

The other question is do I use my boost now instead of the byes?  I don't know if it helps me at all being stuck in no mans land along two lines. I think the best trio I can aim for is Setters, Ginbey and Mackenzie out for Parish, Roberts and Smith/Cogs/Butters

[Bully]

A couple of things, don't beat yourself up over Darcy, you have made 100k on that slot, that could be critical in the run home, Darcy is still an ok option once Gawn returns.

I don't mind those trades, Cogs is a high standard deviation player and you are buying low, textbook Supercoach.

Parish I'm less certain about but M5-8 wide open at this stage, worth a stab.

[Ringo]

Join the club in no mans land but it is only Rd 5 and we can recover so no need to beat yourself up either, 

I am happy jumping on Roberts now that he has DPP as even if dropped will be useful to sit at M11 and swing forward.  Has a negative B/e still so maybe a slow burn but if the downgrade helps get a prem worth it and as Bully says getting Cogs now is great SC play.

[Mat0369]

A couple of things, don't beat yourself up over Darcy, you have made 100k on that slot, that could be critical in the run home, Darcy is still an ok option once Gawn returns.

I don't mind those trades, Cogs is a high standard deviation player and you are buying low, textbook Supercoach.

Parish I'm less certain about but M5-8 wide open at this stage, worth a stab.

I did have to burn 2 trades in the process for a ruck in Grundy (going to Cameron first) that has an uncertain role in the coming weeks. I was pretty pissed after the 41 and considering how much he struggled in the first half of round 1 I thought he needed to go before he became a problem. I have no luck with Freo and GWS players, I think both are in my ban list (although I say this every year with GWS and get sucked in anyway). Looking at that 3 round average of 131 and see him priced more than his starting price is definitely hurting.

Cogs does seem like the buy low candidate with the 58 coming out of his rotation. He is playing a SC friendly role, he is butchering the ball and giving away dumb frees which is hurting his average. He was the guy that I felt would drop the most in price from the top end forwards so now may be the time to get him in

I really like Parish, he is finding a lot of the ball, he just hasn't shown off the ceiling yet. He is another that I think could be a good buy low candidate, but his scoring may not be that much of an upgrade over Setters looking at form. He does love playing the Pies though and with Merrett out I expect him to go huge.

Join the club in no mans land but it is only Rd 5 and we can recover so no need to beat yourself up either, 

I am happy jumping on Roberts now that he has DPP as even if dropped will be useful to sit at M11 and swing forward.  Has a negative B/e still so maybe a slow burn but if the downgrade helps get a prem worth it and as Bully says getting Cogs now is great SC play.

I feel like it has been a lot of chasing my own tail to try and fix my issues. I plug one hole and another opens up. I need to be smarter with who I trade into my side. Ideally  I would love to get a Laird/Touk in this week, burn 3 trades and all my dollars. But having used so many trades already I may need to make the shrewd move like Cogs for Ginbey. Although I can do Mackenzie to Williams and Ginbey to Touk using some DPP magic and have about 2.7k remaining.

[arbel]

I'm same ... spent so much time fixing things now with some rookies getting near max of money making need to make trades but need to be smart to make sure right players come in.
The extra trades this year have helped. If still had same number of trades as previous years would be in trouble.

I think Cogs is a good buy. Has the runs but yeah does hack it a bit. Not sure if you've noticed but players seem to be getting really punished this year for inaffective/clanger disposals.
Noticed it this year more than others.

[Mat0369]

I'm same ... spent so much time fixing things now with some rookies getting near max of money making need to make trades but need to be smart to make sure right players come in.
The extra trades this year have helped. If still had same number of trades as previous years would be in trouble.

I think Cogs is a good buy. Has the runs but yeah does hack it a bit. Not sure if you've noticed but players seem to be getting really punished this year for inaffective/clanger disposals.
Noticed it this year more than others.

Having a quick glance at the numbers it feels like most games last year Cogs had 5-6 clangers a game. It is just the type of player he is and that is another reason he has such a huge deviation in his scores. If he can average 100 on the season that puts him in the F6 range based on current averages. Butters is the other one at a similar price but I feel like Butters always cops a knock at some point. To get a keeper forward at 480k seems like pretty good value

The forwards feel a little unpredictable and of the new DPP options the only player that looks tempting is Bailey Smith and he is injured. If Reeves gets injured Meek is a decent play. Daniel looks lost for a role and hasn't averaged near the ton for 3 years. Keays and Adams are no go options in their current roles. 

You're right on the scores, the two that stood out a couple weeks back were Doc and Bont. Doc scored 136 in DT and scored 87 in SC with 7 clangers for the game. Bont was best on ground, was on track for a monster, had a dropped mark at the start of the last quarter and was punished for it quite severely when watching the live scores.  It feels like a bit of an odd season, all the expected top end mids minus Oliver have taken a decent hit. Daicos is averaging 133 points off 36 touches a game with only 9 contested. Sheezel is the number 4 defender and number 2 forward.

I feel like everything has to come back towards the mean eventually. The scoring has become HB centric with high uncontested possession numbers and them booting it forward (Saad and Ziebell are the two that stand out here). Maybe as the weather gets colder, the turnover numbers increase, it becomes more contested and these guys fade while your guys that aren't reliant on so much outside ball and bombing it long come back into play.

[Mat0369]

Round 6

Score: 1859
Rank: 71,094
Round Rank: 116,373
Cash: $90,700

Trades

Baker>Roberts
Mackenzie>Cogs



Good: Stewart, Ziebell, Hopper, Ashcroft, Rozee, Dunkley, Ryan, Cogs, Greene
Pass: Hollands
Bad: Dawson, Oliver, Neale, Ginbey, Jones, McKenna, Setters, Grundy, Marshall
Ugly: Wilmot, Cowan, LDU, Phillipou, Roberts, Gulden, Sheezel, Davey

Holy crap this was a disaster of a week to sum up a horrendous season. I think this may have been my lowest non bye week score that I have had.

So bringing in Cogs seemed like a great move, Roberts not so much. I traded looping a few players and it became a revolving door of not quite working. It started with Jones, replaced him with Wilmot. I tried looping Roberts and instead fielded Phillipou who didn't do much better. The rookies as a whole were quite poor and might be getting worn out.

I'm a bit stumped in how I even fix this mess. Not having Bont, Daicos, Taranto and English is essentially a death sentence. All 4 have surpassed what I thought they would do each week.

A few other random complaints. Trading Darcy is continuing to burn me, I started Luke Ryan last year and he burnt me to watch him smash it every week this year. LDU has averaged 88 since I traded him in.

Right now I am thinking the following for this week

Wilmot>Mitchell
Phillipou>Day

It leaves me with about 26k and 22 trades.

[Ringo]

Any thoughts of doing Wilmott to Mitchell and Setters to Laird like a few of us are doing.  I considered Day as well but he probably needs to be a keeper at this stage and not certain of that.

[Mat0369]

I originally planned on bringing in Laird for Setters this week but with Laird's injury on the weekend and the news from today I held off. Looking at who I want to trade out this week in Phillipou and Wilmot, it leaves me with about 480k to bring in a player along any line. I didn't like Wagner as a double downgrade (he was dropped anyway) and Sturt means I have to field one of Sturt, Greene or Ryan which I really don't like. That leaves me with an upgrade and here are my options along each line

Backs

Weller
Rich
Ridley
Haynes
Day
Newman

Mids

None

Forwards

Hawkins
Owens
Toby Greene
Zorko
Tex

To be honest I am not really a fan of any of the options and Day I feel will at least make some cash and may be a quick sideways out

If Toby Greene plays in the midfield he would be the most tempting because he is a monster when he goes into the middle. Same goes with Himmelberg if he plays back but neither are locks for that to happen. Hawkins has a pretty good scoring history but I worry at his age. I can maybe trade McKenna instead but I am short of any good defenders and can only grab Mitchell in the mids or maybe Bailey Smith as a forward.

[Ringo]

With Toby Greene Matt just remember Tom Green is back this week as well which may cit down Tobys mid time. Had same issues so opted for Day in the end given his low B/e and cash generation for a couple of weeks.  May even prove to be a keeper.

[arbel]

Out of those options I'd take Day.
Simply the fact that he has had a decent start to the season, besides the suspsension and appears to be the hawks project in the mids.
As Ringo said will make money and could turn out to be a keeper.

[Mat0369]

Agree with Green coming back it should see Toby stay forward, he is one to keep an eye on in the coming weeks though as he could be a great option if Kingsley moves him there full time.

I have had Day in all week and it won't change. LDU out hurts quite a bit but I have the coverage for him by playing Ginbey in the mids. I am still okay for the time being even if Davey is out with some DPP flexibility