The Watchlist - 2023 Edition

[arbel]

Yeah what Ringo said could be a go. Sharp looks like he'll hold his spot.
I went early on Drury last week and now with the injuries he may hold his spot, not going to be a huge scorer.
But at only 102k and with DPP he might be a good pick for some cash gen.

Otherwise I like the Kelly pick or Serong options

[Mat0369]

Walsh a must have, very close to DPP, I'm moving on him this week.

I didn't even considering him for a DPP option but it looks like he is starting at HFF enough that he might get it. The new batch of top end forwards all look like they may be better than my current batch 

Just keep an eye on your byes Matt. Kelly, Smith and Drury all have the bye.

One of the reasons I passed on Walsh this week because Rd 15 bye is problem.

Maybe just 2 trades though and maybe McKenna to Sharp ( He came in when Rich and Zorko went out and stayed in team when Zorko returned and he retained spot.   Rich still 2 weeks away so can get up to byes with cash growth.  Then Hopper to Serong for bye structure. Hopper has to go now wieth latest injury report.

Not even going to worry about byes right now, I am way out of the running in the overall race and I plan on building the best team I can for finals. If that means I have one week that is a disaster than I'll cop it on the chin.

Harry Sharp not a bad shout, might even go Wilmot to Sharp.

Yeah, Sharp isn't one I really looked at. I was burnt by him a couple years back and with Rich out and his JS uncertain I didn't even consider him. I also thought he was more expensive than 123k. Drury will play this week with all the North injuries but his scoring was god awful. Sharp for an extra 20k may be a better choice

Yeah what Ringo said could be a go. Sharp looks like he'll hold his spot.
I went early on Drury last week and now with the injuries he may hold his spot, not going to be a huge scorer.
But at only 102k and with DPP he might be a good pick for some cash gen.

Otherwise I like the Kelly pick or Serong options

LDU has to go now as well with the injury being 3-5 weeks. I'll play around a bit more and see what I can come up with if I do grab Sharp

[Bully]

The forwards on offer are ridiculously strong, a player like Gawn may even be F7 material.

Will Mills get DPP? I had always viewed him as a D6.

[Mat0369]

The forwards on offer are ridiculously strong, a player like Gawn may even be F7 material.

Will Mills get DPP? I had always viewed him as a D6.

I'd be curious to see the list of names. There are a couple of quality players in Butters and Smith that could have huge back ends to the year as well but they may not be good enough to be top 6 if some of the other names that come through are Trac, Walsh and Gawn

I think if Mills does get DPP he would be an ideal swing man to cover both lines. He will be extremely cheap and an easy sideways trade. It also depends what line you play Ziebell on and if you feel Sheezel is a keeper. Like right now I have Stewart, Dawson, Doc, Sicily, Day and Sheezel with Ziebell forward.

I'm also really tempted by Libba. His numbers this year have been insane and he is covering the ground better than he ever has. They mentioned his GPS numbers on 360 tonight and they're ridiculous. Add in he plays 95% mid and the amount of ground/contests he gets to, he should have an amazing floor. There is every chance he is the number 2 mid behind Bont come the end of the season.

[Bully]

The only issue with Libba is having to share points with Bont, Smith, Macrae & English (I mention Tim given he's clocking up midfield numbers).

Libba's best year in 2014 (110), I think that's where he eventually settles but you never know, he can throw up the occasional sub 80 score, I expect a couple of stinkers from here.

[Mat0369]

The only issue with Libba is having to share points with Bont, Smith, Macrae & English (I mention Tim given he's clocking up midfield numbers).

Libba's best year in 2014 (110), I think that's where he eventually settles but you never know, he can throw up the occasional sub 80 score, I expect a couple of stinkers from here.

It is a career best year for Libba. With Dunkley out of the team he has thrived. Macrae has been average and isn't a premium mid anymore. That won't change unless the Dogs have injuries that force him to go back into the middle on a consistent basis. Smith can score well, so can English, but the Dogs have had English, Bont, Macrae and Dunkley all put up great numbers in the past. There is 0 reason why Libba's production can't continue if he is fit and continues to play the same role.

I remember breaking down the numbers for the other mids with Libba in and out of the team a couple years back. I'll see if I can find that post and quote it

[Mat0369]

I broke down the numbers with Libba in and out of the side. I have included the Carlton game where he got injured pretty early as a game without him.

With Libba in the side

Dunkley - 103.14
Macrae - 119.5
Bont - 114.64

Without Libba in team

Dunkley - 136.11
Macrae - 128.11
Bont - 111.44

Dunkley sees his number spike to Gaz territory in his average. Macrae also sees a huge spike because he isn't forced out to the wing as much. Bont loses points but it isn't a huge drop off.

Dunkley also averaged 111.3 post bye 2018 when he was put into a full time midfield role. Using the available data, if Libba is out of the team and Dunkley plays in a full time midfield role he is the guy to own and it's not even close. He is also 30k cheaper than Macrae. Macrae is the safer pick because he has the higher floor of the two. Bont probably doesn't gain or lose that much either way with how the Dogs line up.

Found it. This is from a couple years back but it was pretty clear that Dunkley and Libba would steal points off each other. Libba was playing forward in chunks last year which is why he got DPP. With Dunkley gone Libba is seeing all the inside mid minutes, playing 95% of his game time as a mid and in turn has been amazing. He is a risky pick at this point due to his price, but all the numbers point to him being a top 6 mid and arguably top 3.

[Mat0369]

Back on topic a little bit, the teams dropped today. Some interesting ins and outs. Darcy Cameron has been named on an extended bench for the Pies. He is pretty tempting at his price with how he scored prior to the injury.

Nank has been named for the Tigers which will see Ryan play more as a forward. I don't think I can field him this week and that stings considering how well he was going.

Cincotta has been named on an extended bench for the Blues. My gut tells me he is going to be dropped or the sub this week.

Drury named again but likely to score terribly. I think I lean towards Sharp now as a bench option that I may even need to field this week.

If Cameron is named this week I am tempted to go with this as a potential option

McKenna/LDU/Hopper to Cameron/Sharp and Libba or cheaper in the midfield.

[arbel]

Yeah I've been waiting for Cameron to come back as his scoring was good and he had potential to be top 6 forward
but I'm not sure I can get him in with other trades needed doing  :o

[Mat0369]

Yeah I've been waiting for Cameron to come back as his scoring was good and he had potential to be top 6 forward
but I'm not sure I can get him in with other trades needed doing  :o

Interesting that he's been named as emergency

[Bully]

Yeah I've been waiting for Cameron to come back as his scoring was good and he had potential to be top 6 forward
but I'm not sure I can get him in with other trades needed doing  :o

Interesting that he's been named as emergency

Cox played a ripper game so I'm not surprised.

[Mat0369]

Very true. Give him the extra week and let Cox keep rucking.

I've gone with Sharp/Kelly/Baz for LDU/Hopper/McKenna

[Mat0369]

Regretting not grabbing Butters right about now

[Bully]

Regretting not grabbing Butters right about now

F6 will need to be 110+, first time ever the forward line looks more menacing than the midfield pool.

[Mat0369]

Option 4: McKenna/Hopper/LDU for Merrett/Butters/Drury and $20,700

Shed a tear for not going with this option  :'(

I'll do a proper write up tomorrow on my team