The Watchlist - 2023 Edition

[Mat0369]

Round 7

Score: 2246
Rank: 62,571
Round Rank: 33,392
Cash: $26,200

Trades

Phillipou>Day
Wilmot>Mitchell



Good: Dawson, Stewart, Day, McKenna, Sheezel, Oliver, Neale, Green, Ashcroft, Marshall, Dunkley, Cogs, Ziebell, Gulden, Ryan
Pass: Hollands, Rozee
Bad: Jones, Hopper, Grundy
Ugly: Setters, Ginbey, Mitchell, Greene, Dead Rookies

A pretty average week overall. Day was decent but Mitchell was a bit of a bust getting subbed off. I'm not sure what to do with a handful of my players which I'll list below

Jones - Looks like he might be ready to go but it will depend what his BE is compared to my other rookies.
Cowan - Probably a dead rookie at this point and will find it tricky to get back into the Blues backline with how well Kemp played.
Constable - Has been dead since round 2 but has been a useful captain loophole with his DPP
Hopper - May have topped out or close to it. I think I might hold him through to the byes since he can reliably score around the 90's most weeks.
Setters - Has probably got to go this week
Ginbey - 39 is a killer and has killed his cash gen again, gotta go
Davey - Dropped for the weekends game, probably a sub risk but may come back in with the Bombers loss?
Roberts - Injured so probably not much help
Grundy - Scores are cooked with Gawn back, probably not an instant problem with how good he has been in the second half of games
Greene - The 28 has killed all cash gen so may need to go this week
Mitchell - In danger of being dropped after he was subbed off.

I'm leaning towards using a boost which will leave me with 2 more for the rest of the season. I'm thinking Ginbey, Setters and one of Greene/Jones out. I would look at Simpson, Cincotta and a premium in that is TBD

[arbel]

Agree with the trades, think Simpson and Cincotta will be 2 most traded in players. No other rookies screaming out to be put in.
I'm hoping Mitchell doesn't get dropped. Played decent hopefully was a tactical sub and keeps his spot.

[Ringo]

Just a thought do you need to boost and do 3 trades, I would be tempted to just do 2 Ginbey to Cincotta and Setters to best Premium you can afford rgink if calcs correct Laird down.

[Mat0369]

Agree with the trades, think Simpson and Cincotta will be 2 most traded in players. No other rookies screaming out to be put in.
I'm hoping Mitchell doesn't get dropped. Played decent hopefully was a tactical sub and keeps his spot.

Teakle is the other with Lycett out. I'll see how the teams are named and pick one of Simpson or Teakle if I have enough players actually playing.

Mitchell was subbed for Scrimshaw so they gained someone that can play a little taller. Hopefully it was just that and maybe trying to give Mitchell a chop out playing his 3rd in a row. Still not a great sign though

Just a thought do you need to boost and do 3 trades, I would be tempted to just do 2 Ginbey to Cincotta and Setters to best Premium you can afford rgink if calcs correct Laird down.

I feel I have at least 3 players that need to go and getting the extra rookie this week could be beneficial. Weddle is a potential option for next week but not much else on the horizon. I think Wardlaw was close for North but has gone in for scans for an injury of some kind. A lot of rookies are starting as subs or getting subbed off which will kill the cash gen. Simpson, Cincotta and Teakle all seem like solid options so getting 2 of the 3 without losing a premium this week feels like a go.

[Mat0369]

I ended up making the following trades

Out
Ginbey
Greene
Setters

In

Cincotta
Simpson
Sicily

I am contemplating grabbing a mid instead of Sicily with the plan to get Doc in next week. I am also wondering if it is worth trading Jones ahead of Gibey since he has a higher BE. I'll still likely grab Doc next week anyway by turning Jones into Kemp and McKenna into Doc. Although Ashcroft may have also topped out so I may go my last boost  and turn him into someone like Steele as well.

[Mat0369]

Round 8

Score: 2275
Rank: 56,722
Round Rank:  37,934
Cash: $211,600

Trades

Ginbey>Cincotta
Greene>Simpson
Setters>Sicily



Good: Sheezel, Cincotta, Dawson, Oliver, Green, Hopper, Simpson, Marshall, Dunkley, Rozee, Ziebell, Gulden, Ryan
Pass: Stewart, Day
Bad: Hollands, Cogs, Mitchell
Ugly: Sicily, McKenna, Jones, Neale, LDU, Ashcroft, Grundy, Davey

My trades were pretty poor last week with Sicily a disaster, Grundy not far behind and I probably should have moved Jones ahead of Ginbey. This week I think it's two pretty simple moves. Jones to Doc and Grundy to Gawn. Ideally I should have held Ginbey last week and made the Grundy to Gawn move then. Grundy doesn't look comfortable splitting time and 7 FA's killed any chance of a decent score.

Ashcroft and McKenna both go next week for a premium mid and a rookie

[arbel]

Not bad trades. Grundy just isn't the same with Gawn in the team.
I'm trading Ashcroft.  Out of all rookies he has best scoring potential (except Sheezel who is looking like a keeper) but this he is nearing his top value.

[Mat0369]

Agreed, not sure what his BE is but I think he needs to go in the next couple of weeks. If I didn't have Jones he probably is the one I move on this week instead

[arbel]

His current breakeven is 86. If you don't have supercoach gold use this website: http://tooserious.net/forum/stats.php
Don't know if you know of it but is really useful.
Has all breakevens and also good stats like potential money making/loss in next few weeks based on breakeven and average etc.
Usually gets updated tuesday/wednesday's

[Mat0369]

Footywire has them as well and I think they're more accurate than tooserious, but I've been lazy to check this week. I figure it wasn't too bad and 86 shouldn't see him lose too much cash. Happy to get Jones out this week

[Ringo]

Ashcrofts B/E is actually 71 and he has an average of 93 at the Gabba so worth holding for a week

[Mat0369]

Round 9

Score: 2235
Rank: 48,754
Round Rank:  11,054
Cash: $16,400

Trades

Grundy>Gawn
Jones>Doc



Good: Stewart, Sicily, Mitchell, Oliver, LDU, Ashcroft, Marshall, Dunkley, Ziebell, Gulden, Rozee, Ryan, Simpson
Pass: Doc, Day, Neale, Gawn, Cogs
Bad: Sheezel, Dawson, Green, Hollands,
Ugly: McKenna, Hopper, Cincotta, Davey, LDU's hamstring, my loophole skills

Decent week with some crappy injury luck yet again and some self inflicted errors (I thought Mitchell scored poorly for some reason and didn't swing Cowan on for McKenna)

A few decisions to make this week, number 1 is what do I do with LDU and Hopper? I think Hopper is a must trade at this point, they mentioned it being a 3ish week injury which may not even make him useful for byes. LDU they said could be 1 game on the coverage which would be a shock looking at how he was limping. It's probably a hold for this week then

I didn't watch the Brisbane game all that much, but looking at McKenna's score he must have butchered the ball. A BE of 88 this week probably makes him expendable this week. I don't have the cash for a double upgrade with Hopper and LDU thanks to LDU plummeting in price even with the 120. So McKenna to someone like Drury and Hopper up to a prem that is Anderson or cheaper makes the most sense. My options are below

Walsh - Probably the one I like the most, he hasn't dropped under 100 all year but hasn't showcased the ceiling either. Ultra consistent and a safe pick

Libba - A bit more risk but has thrived with Dunkley out of the side. One score under 100 and 3 scores of 140+. He seems like an amazing POD

Serong - Has surpassed Brayshaw as the Dockers best fantasy mid. Hasn't dropped under the ton since round 1 and has scores of 146, 146, 130 and 120 this year showing he has a  big ceiling.

Laird - Subbed out on the weekend and hasn't had a solid but mediocre start to the season by his standards. I feel like he is going to be a 110 player this year rather than the super prem 120+. He will bleed more cash so may not be the option for this week although the BE is gettable by his standards.

Josh Kelly - He is someone I have had my eye on all season, he has been a little bit of a yo-yo with 3 scores in the 80's and all the rest in the 100's. He is well priced and looks like he can be a top mid option. I'm probably 50/50 between him and Walsh. The extra cash by picking Kelly makes him a slightly more attractive option.

Butters - Has been really great the last month and seems to be on a roll scoring. Port are looking good with a number of options in the midfield. Might be a nice option to finish off my forward line.

Cripps - Will continue to bleed cash so not right now, might be an option to sideway Ashcroft down the track

Merrett - A slow start to the season similar to last year, Parish out medium term could see him increase his output. He might be a nice buy low candidate if he goes on a run

Brayshaw - Far too inconsistent, he will come cheaper down the track so pass right now.

Steele - Knee knock and other than round 7 he hasn't scored over 100

Smith - Nicely priced and would finish off my forward line. Can play him as a mid for now until I trade out Ryan

If I am able to hold LDU I think I lean towards Kelly/Walsh and Drury for McKenna and Hopper

If I use a boost this week to dump LDU as well I like one of 6 options

Option 1: McKenna/Hopper/LDU for Kelly/Smith/Drury and $53,500

Option 2: McKenna/Hopper/LDU for Kelly/Merrett/Drury and $500

Option 3: McKenna/Hopper/LDU for Kelly/Butters/Drury and $500

Option 4: McKenna/Hopper/LDU for Merrett/Butters/Drury and $20,700

Option 5: McKenna/Hopper/LDU for Merrett/Smith/Drury and $73,700

Option 6: McKenna/Hopper/LDU for Walsh/Smith/Drury and $27,400

[Bully]

Walsh a must have, very close to DPP, I'm moving on him this week.

[Ringo]

Just keep an eye on your byes Matt. Kelly, Smith and Drury all have the bye.

One of the reasons I passed on Walsh this week because Rd 15 bye is problem.

Maybe just 2 trades though and maybe McKenna to Sharp ( He came in when Rich and Zorko went out and stayed in team when Zorko returned and he retained spot.   Rich still 2 weeks away so can get up to byes with cash growth.  Then Hopper to Serong for bye structure. Hopper has to go now wieth latest injury report.

[Bully]

Harry Sharp not a bad shout, might even go Wilmot to Sharp.