Bully's Boys 2022

[Bully]

Crisp a worry but I am waiting to see next week what transpires with him.  Was lowest score since Rd 12 2020 and as you say seemed to have a tagging role on Steele initially.

He will also become Lloyd Rd 3 if tagging roles continue although hard to see a tag required against Crows.

Will monitor the squad over the next few matches but I'm inclined to strike early with Lloyd and free up some trades round 3, Cripps/Hewett look like good targets for a correction trade.

[Bully]

Good first round, 2302, rank is lower than expected but any score over 2300 is to be celebrated.

With the extra trades I'm going early with structural reform, I think M5 is vulnerable so rejigging the squad worth it.

Crisp is the equal of Hewitt in my opinion, similar roles, the only difference being 170k, Berry to Cripps looks like a no brainer with that extra cash.

Next week both Ward & Baldwin will be monitored, another Ridley misfire & I'll look at downgrading Ward and grabbing Lloyd who is at 14% ownership.

No other glaring holes but I'd even consider Ward to Xerri via Rachele. Goldy spending a fair bit of time on the pine.

[Mat0369]

Ward injured his ankle late. I'd probably look at moving him this week if he is out with some DPP magic. I'd hold on Crisp this week and maybe look at turning him into Lloyd.

[Bully]

Ward injured his ankle late. I'd probably look at moving him this week if he is out with some DPP magic. I'd hold on Crisp this week and maybe look at turning him into Lloyd.

I don't mind holding fire on Ward, he could go a number of ways, Xerri interests me greatly but requires 2 trades. Mead another downgrade option and then potentially upgrade Ridley to Lloyd.

Cripps is a must in my opinion, looks like a 115 season from where I'm standing, Berry looking more slow burn. At worst Hewitt makes 100k and fills M9, DPP hugely important with Whitfield & Sicily bound to miss matches.

[Mat0369]

Berry was on track for a monster score at HT. The second half I have no idea what happened. I'd hold him this week as well.

I'd also take Houston over Hewett. Houston started last year on fire before the AC joint derailed his season. The role is extremely SC friendly. Howe is the other 400k defender I'd look at. He was on around 70 and BOG at HT before he had an extremely quiet second half. Plus we still have Walsh to come back into the side. I also think we come back down to earth vs the Dogs

[Bully]

Berry was on track for a monster score at HT. The second half I have no idea what happened. I'd hold him this week as well.

I'd also take Houston over Hewett. Houston started last year on fire before the AC joint derailed his season. The role is extremely SC friendly. Howe is the other 400k defender I'd look at. He was on around 70 and BOG at HT before he had an extremely quiet second half. Plus we still have Walsh to come back into the side. I also think we come back down to earth vs the Dogs

Hewett's scores since the bye last year -

102
97
55
134
86
56
75
102
106
106 (elim)
131 (r1)

Avg = 95

I think this will be his average come the end of the year, not quite premo territory but perfect for M9.
Given his high standard deviation he's a prime loophole candidate.

Hewett/Cripps is potentially 95 + 115
Crisp/Berry  100 + 85

Worth a trade and I won't be looking at Houston with his injury history, Howe the same. The other trade I would consider is simply trading Crisp to Lloyd but I'm more inclined to trade Ridley at this stage.

[Bully]

Decent week, 2382 which was slightly above par, quite a few holes which need to be fixed & Gawn is gone.

Gawn to Butters, seems a smart play as I think they will have parity in a few weeks.
This allows me get the deadwood off the ground & brings in Xerri who looks borderline keeperish.

With the remaining cash I've gone with an upgrade of Whitfield to Hall who I think is a quality POD.
The last defensive position probably Lloyd who looked horrible but still managed to ton up.

Thought about Heeney but don't have a spot really, Xerri is the better long term proposition & Heeney will throw in the odd mare.

Will get Gawn back in all likelihood but with a BE of 200 odd I'm happy to sit this one out. Won't be difficult to get him back as I will swing English back to the forwards.

[Mat0369]

I don't mind dropping Gawn for the cash grab as long as you have another option that makes sense (which you do in English). I can see a lot of teams moving Hayes to R2 and it's going to destroy them.

I have both Butters and Xerri in my side so I like both. Something to keep in mind is the competition Xerri faced, but the role is there and he could be a keeper as R3/F7.

I also like the Hall pick and I was 50/50 between him and Rich when Lloyd was out. I expect Whitfield to bounce back, but I can also see the merit in trading him.

That team does look really really good and should keep trending upwards.

[Bully]

I don't mind dropping Gawn for the cash grab as long as you have another option that makes sense (which you do in English). I can see a lot of teams moving Hayes to R2 and it's going to destroy them.

I have both Butters and Xerri in my side so I like both. Something to keep in mind is the competition Xerri faced, but the role is there and he could be a keeper as R3/F7.

I also like the Hall pick and I was 50/50 between him and Rich when Lloyd was out. I expect Whitfield to bounce back, but I can also see the merit in trading him.

That team does look really really good and should keep trending upwards.

The problem with Whitfield is he's not taking enough kick outs, Cumming seems to be the go to guy.
There's already a 50 point difference between him & Hall, I reckon for 72k it's a nice safe haven.
Whitfield surely improves but I don't think he's top 6 at this stage.

[Bully]

Interesting stat with Hall, since coming back from injury last year he's scored 17/18 tons at an average of 116. That's super premo territory and is the reason I'm keen to get him in.

[Mat0369]

Agreed on Hall. It's why I had him at D2 until his hamstring injury during the preseason. His average last year minus the sub/injury score is elite. The reward outweighs the risk with him.

[Bully]

Not as good a week as expected, 2235 with both Hall & Butters making my trades look foolish, nevermind, everyone has a bad week.
Rank is ok, around the 6k mark, no need to panic but it's now time to be bold and prepare to make a big play for Steele/Miller in the coming weeks.

Out is Rachele, Stephens & Ward, in comes Preuss, Bowey & O'Driscoll.

The plan from here will be to ride my luck with Bowey & then grab Miller/Steele next week. Burning trades like mad but in a new world of boost
and roost one has to be daring. Maybe Bowey becomes keeperish much like Jiath, don't know but he can be sold at 400k in any worst case scenario.

Both Steele & Miller are looming as big time buys, poor Touk had to contend with some heavy tagging but that won't happen every week.
Steele starting slowly like last year but he's a pretty safe investment.

Rookies on the horizon? Sonsie tore up the VFL so he likely comes in for Gibcus & I'll look at some other possibilities including a floating donut.
The race to fill up the midfield will define who does well this season, that's why it's all guns blazing from this corner. Still averaging over 2300 so maintenance of this number becomes paramount.

[Bully]

Just reading the AFL ins and outs, looks like O'Driscoll might miss out. If so, I'll probably just settle on Preuss for Stephens and give Rachele & Ward another week.

[Mat0369]

I'd say Stephens is a high chance of getting dropped this week. Solid trade bringing in Preuss. Personally I'm going to wait until he is on the bubble because he is an injury risk and I don't trust the Giants at all. I think the Bowey ship has sailed. Skinner has been dropped so he isn't worth grabbing as a downgrade option either. Once the teams come out we will get a better idea of where everyone is at.

[Bully]

I'd say Stephens is a high chance of getting dropped this week. Solid trade bringing in Preuss. Personally I'm going to wait until he is on the bubble because he is an injury risk and I don't trust the Giants at all. I think the Bowey ship has sailed. Skinner has been dropped so he isn't worth grabbing as a downgrade option either. Once the teams come out we will get a better idea of where everyone is at.

Preuss can be pushed to the bench so he's a low risk bet, if he's dropped I'll make Gawn the priority next week, he will be coming with a big discount.

Still trying to push whatever buttons necessary to get a big fish next week & lock in some price drops, that would effectively cancel out the Bowey opportunity cost.