The Process 2022

[Mat0369]

Rough starting team

Lloyd, Hall, Crisp, Milera, Kreuger, Kemp (O'Driscoll, De Koning)
Macrae, Miller, Oliver, Neale, Rowell, Berry, Horne-Francis, Daicos (McInnes, Roberts, Clark)
Grundy, Witts (Preuss)
Dunkley, Duncan, Rayner, Cogs, Curnow, Hollands (Skinner, Parker)

There are a number of other players I am looking at on each line. I might add them to my next post but this is what I am sitting with for the time being. Rookies are the key. I have some more expensive ones on the field and cheaper guys on the bench. While I really like some guys like Dylan Stephens and Finn Macrae, I can't justify having a Daicos/Stephens on the bench at their prices.

[Mat0369]

I am going to do my other players of interest in separate posts based off position.

Defence

Rich - Really like him as a POD and think the scoring plays into his game perfectly. He is such a damaging long kick and will take the majority of the Lions kickouts.

Ryan - Averaged 107 in 2020 which would have been good for number 1 in 2021 if he backed it up. Instead he battled injury and a changing role with all Freo's KPD's getting injured. Young is the guy that could also continue to take some of the kickouts which may also hurt him a little. When he is on, he is still a beast. The back end of 2021 he really slowed down with some poor scores which saw his average drop from a 106 to a 99.

Ridley - Was HUGE in the first half of 2021. He started the first 4 rounds averaging 133 before a concussion began his decline. If you take out the concussion score he still averaged 102 for the year. The worry with Ridley is once he returned he had Redman and Heppell eating into his kickout numbers. He also played a couple of lockdown roles like the Giants game where he scored 84 playing on Toby Greene. He is probably the best value defender based on what he is capable of with freedom to play his own game. He is one of the best kicks of the ball I have seen play. The guy can be the total package and it's a matter of do I start with him or will he be achievable as an upgrade target.

Daniel - An absolute disaster for me last year. He scored a 19 and copped a one week suspension. I made the decision to get him out of my team at that point as he had lost his role, couldn't find the pill and was bleeding cash. He was the perfect opportunity to fix my R2 situation. However, from the game after the suspension he went on to average 99 on the run home. He still was a bit of a yo-yo, but he had a great finals series and could easily average 100 next year priced at 94. My worry is still Bailey Dale who will take some kickouts and may cap his ceiling in the process.

Maynard - This one is a bit out of left field and the numbers have been cherry picked, but, I think he could be a top 6 defender if it plays out correctly. He had a breakout 2020 where he averaged 102.4 followed by a horrid start to 2021. He looked like he didn't have a defined role and when thee Collingwood backline started falling apart due to injury he stood up. Once Darcy Moore was out of that backline Maynard started taking the number 1 forward each week and killed them with his rebound. From R8-R22 he would go on to average 103.4 with his best effort on Queens Birthday where he scored 144 in Bucks last game. With a new  coach the set up could change in the backline yet again, but I feel he has some serious  upside.

Docherty - He is one I will look at mainly as an upgrade target. Doc was fantastic last year until he was moved to the wing. Carlton needed to shuffle Williams into the backline and Doc was the guy that moved and struggled to hit the form he had earlier in the season. He finished the season with an ankle injury and his cancer coming back. He has stepped down from the captaincy to focus more on his health and his footy when he hopefully returns. A fit and firing Doc in the backline could be a pretty big POD but I think it's one I am only looking to consider once he gets out on the park.

Houston - Dan Houston was a monster last year before injuring himself against the Blues in R5. In the first 4 rounds he averaged 112.3 and looked like one of their most influential players. Then he copped a knock to his shoulder and struggled with the injury for the majority of the season. It hurt his game and he looked to be protecting it on a number of occasions. If he is fit and firing this season he could be in the upper echelon of defenders and is currently priced at an 86 average. He has the history of burning people in the past, so I'm probably going to look at him as an upgrade target if I do grab him

Sicily - He has been a premium defender for a number of seasons and is currently priced at 448k. He is a bargain and he is super tempting. Having said that, the Hawks backline was there strength last year and looked settled without him. Mitchell is coming in and we have no idea how he intends to use him. With the Hawks struggling in the forward line with a bunch of young KPP, maybe Sicily moves into that part of the field to add some overhead marking and a veteran presence. His scores as a forward stink and I think this is a decision that will need to be made after watching the Hawks line up for a couple of practice matches. There is every chance he will move forward within games through the season so I'm thinking of just steering clear. 

Howe - Another Collingwood player, another potential bargain. Howe started the season with a 94.5 average before his season became derailed by injury. That is back to back seasons where Howe, who has traditionally been durable, has seen his season derailed by injury. 2020 he was an absolute beast and priced very similarly to what he is now. With his intercept marking ability he is on my watchlist. He feels like a better pick than Sicily for me priced at 427k with extreme upside. 

Haynes - Another intercept mark king of 2020 that had a horrendous 2021. I probably won't look at him, but if he looks to be in a comfortable role down back with less time put into him he may be a good upgrade target that won't break the bank.

Lukosius - I am expecting a breakout. Bowes out long term opens the path for him to move down back and use his lethal boot to his advantage. Super risky, but I think he could have a pretty big season. Still probably won't have the balls to start him though

Clark - Super talented, should see midfield time, but I feel I have heard this for the last couple of seasons. I think when Clark finally puts it all together he will be an excellent pick for those that have him. Personally I think the value is elsewhere.

Hewett - Another defender that will be in a midfield role. I unfortunately see a Williams 2.0 situation. Not that Hewett will stink it up on the field for Carlton and we change his role, but that he underwhelms from a fantasy perspective. That midfield will have Walsh, Cripps, Curnow and Cerra all getting time. I think Hewett is in there to do the selfless grunt work which the coaches will love but won't translate into Supercoach

Brad Hill - Maybe for fantasy if he moves back onto a wing and hits some long lost form, but personally staying clear.

I might do the rest of the lines tomorrow

[Mat0369]

Mids

Steele - Back to back 120+ seasons, tackles, wins contested ball and has stepped up with the Saints captaincy. He seems a pretty safe bet and is one I'm considering with Touk/Oliver

Bont - 115, 116 and 119 in the last three seasons. He has had slumps in both of the last two seasons starting slowly in 2020 and having a couple of low scores last season. He is another one that I feel could be around the 120+ mark and is priced a little cheaper than the other guys. He can also be a game changer with his massive ceiling.

Lyons - He has been elite the last two seasons. I feel he performed better with Neale out of the side, I'd probably need to double check the numbers to confirm this. From memory he had a slight dip when Neale returned part way through the year and if Neale is fit and firing that could chew into his ceiling. He could be the ultimate POD but he is another I will look at as an upgrade target

Walsh - His season last year was amazing. His ball winning ability combined with his tank make him a genuine superstar. The only worry is how does he deal with the tag. They have gone out and gotten him some support in Hewett and Cerra, but the tag got to him a couple of times last year. I really, really want to start him, but it's tough to pick a guy to drop out of Macrae, Miller and Oliver to afford him.

Parrish - This is another smokey that is high risk high reward. When he went into the midfield full time last year he was elite. From Anzac Day he averaged 121.8 with a 169 in the final against the Dogs. His ceiling is ridiculous and he didn't need a lot of the ball to impact games.

Brayshaw - Fifth year breakout on the cards. He has been on an upward trend and averaged 117 from the bye with a huge 190 in the rotation. He is now the guy in that Freo midfield, the only issues is how does he deal with the tag.

Matt Crouch - Priced at under 500k and capable of a 110 average. When you look at how much he costs vs what he can produce I feel he is a lock. Same issue where I don't know how to get him into my side. I'm hoping there is another reason why I can cross him out of my side because I keep trying to get him in and it is screwing my structure.

Yeo - See Crouch, when he is fit and firing he is the Eagles best SC player. He was eased into the back end of last season so he has some footy under his belt. I think he is on a modified program which is making it easier for me to not pick him.

Cripps - Last year was a disaster and he hasn't been good for SC since the slide began in mid 2019. New coach, more support and hopefully an injury free run could see him bounce back. After getting burnt last year I'll probably hold off.

Shuey - Another player that hasn't been able to get his body right. At 440k he probably has to be picked as a keeper which changes things. If he was a bit cheaper I think you could pick him as a stepping stone.

Lipinski - If he was a forward I'd really consider him. As a mid only he is probably off my list. Could average 90ish and maybe that's okay at 360k, but I'd rather Rowell

Dumont - Port have picked him up as depth, but he is another that could be a great stepping stone if he plays. He averaged 84 in 2019 and 101.9 in 2020. Injury killed him last year and North wanted to move in a different direction. I think he could average 90 if he plays pretty consistently in that Port midfield.

Jordan Clark - If he wasn't mid only I would consider him. I think he takes that wing role at the Dockers and steps it up. He can find the footy and has amazing running capacity. Unfortunately I don't want to screw around with my mids so it's a pass.

Constable - Another ex Geelong player that has changed clubs in the off-season. Racked up good numbers at VFL level but leg pace and ability to cover the ground probably kills him as an AFL player. He is picked to take the Greenwood role, but I think we're going to see more of a Miller, Rowell and Anderson CB set up for the Suns. Probably a pass for me at his price and the fact he isn't a lock for the 22.

Finn Macrae - Second year player with multiple sub scores. It's normally a good thing for SC rookies, however I'm not sure if he is a 100% lock to play week in, week out and at his price I'd rather Horne-Francis and Daicos who are both ready made.

[Mat0369]

Rucks

Gawn - Has been the premium ruck in years gone by and the number 1 scorer yet again. Why am I not picking him? The Luke Jackson factor. I feel the Dees are going to look to keep getting Jackson more ruck minutes and rest Gawn forward to protect him for another September run. While it is pure speculation, he also averaged 112 since his bye week last year.

Darcy - He has had one premium season and has continually struggled with his body in previous years. He was amazing in the second half of last year, but I think he could be a trap at his price.

Nic Nat - Another great season for Nic Nat and he could be a nice POD. I probably only want to start with one true premium and then look to upgrade to the best option available. I think Nic Nat will be up there, but he has had a history of missing games. Probably a pass

Marshall - Really tempted to start him at R2 for a number of reasons. He will be the Saints number 1 ruck, covers the ground amazingly and has a couple of injury scores in his average. He could also pick up DPP which would allow me to swing him forward at some point. His body is the worry as he is apparently still struggling with his foot

O'Brien - ROB had a down year last year. Having said that, he is about to hit his prime and can score. He is priced at about 500k so he has to probably be picked as a keeper. I'm probably going to pass but he could be a good option with the extra trades if he produces within 10 points of the big guns.

[Mat0369]

I'll get my forwards list done tomorrow

[Mat0369]

Forwards

Taranto - Picking him depends on his role. I had him in my team last year and he was disappointing at times, but a lot of that had to do with where he played and not how he played. The Giants moved him out of the midfield for large chunks of quarters just after he had dominated in there in preference of a Ward/Hopper combo as the inside guys. With Tom Green also coming through, Taranto could continue to see time up forward. When Toby Greene was out of the side they used him more in that role and while it worked in one game where he was a goal machine, he also saw a dip in the following games. As a pure mid I think he is close to a lock, but there is value in the forward line and both Duncan/Dunkley are better options.

Hawkins - I picked him up last year after he had a pretty good 2020 and looked like a good POD for the back end of the season. There were games where he played decoy for Cameron and it felt like the team were trying to get Cameron involved for form purposes. While Cameron drawing attention should help him, it can also hinder him when they bypass him and get tunnel vision. At his age I think it's a pass. Maybe an upgrade target

The Package - A monster in the midfield. Since his bye he averaged 110.3 which is huge and places him comfortably as the number 1 forward. He is always an injury risk, but if he holds the same role he could be the best premium pick up based on his ceiling.

Dusty - Has been a staple in forward lines but was a bit of a disaster for those that owned him last year. Injuries derailed his season, but he should come back fit and firing this season. The Tigers most important player and they will need him to play well to be a finals threat. Personally I'd rather start Duncan and Dunkley with mid eligibility. I'll look at Dusty as an upgrade target if he performs.

Treloar - If this man wasn't a walking injury he would be a lock. He took a couple games to get going last year but hit some nice form and would be a top end forward. Then the injury hit and he missed a long time. Pass with his body

English - He put up some stinkers last season, but a ruckman as a forward could be gold. He did play a lot of forward last year and could continue to do so, but if he gets a 60/40 split I'd say a 90 average or top 6 finish isn't out of the equation. I'd rather hold off.

De Goey - If he didn't have all the off-field stuff going on I had him as a lock at the end of the 2021 season. He moved into the midfield and was excellent. From Queens Birthday onwards he averaged 98.1. The Pies midfield feels very shallow. Pendles is getting up in age, Sidebottom is playing more half forward, Adams is a walking injury. It feels like Crisp and De Goey are going to be the two horses in there if De Goey plays. Probably a wait and see because he can't be trusted to have his head on straight.

Tarryn Thomas - Another one I really want to fit in but don't know how. Last year he moved into the midfield part way through the season and was excellent. Another year in the system, some more support with the other young guys growing and he could take another step. He averaged 96.5 from round 9. Has a bit of Simpkin about the situation where he could break out in the forward line and be mid only next year. Risky pick but I think he will be well worth it. I just can't pick him ahead of the 2 premiums I have and the forward line feels like the line to load up on the 200-300k range.

Shai Bolton - I picked him up last year the game where he took mark of the year. I looked like a genius, he had an amazing run of form, produced again and then went out and broke his hand. He is a bit of a yo-yo and was playing forward for large stints in game. Probably an upgrade target at best since I was burnt last season.

Butters - Started the first two rounds with a huge bang. 96 in a half against the Tigers before he got injured. Huge ceiling and could be in the top couple of forwards if he produces consistently. Once he returned from injury he didn't seem to really get going again so that consistency will be key

Gunston - Can easily produce a 90 average based on history and is priced around a 65 average. I still don't think I can fit him in my side and you're probably picking him as a keeper at his price but the value is there. It's a pass for me.

Walters - Role absolutely killed him last year. Does he shift back into the midfield? If he does at his price he is probably a must. You just have to expect him to get injured at some point.

Gresham - Reports are he is playing forward more this year. If he was playing in the midfield for the majority of games I think he is a lock, but I don't want to spend 300k on a small forward.

Bruhn - If GWS play him consistently in the midfield....actually forget I said anything, pass.

Cuningham - Was averaging 80 and improving with each game. Then he tore his ACL. He was close to BOG the week before he injured himself. I just don't know if he will be ready by round 1 and get consistent footy into him. A really good chance to make some cash if he does play.

Stengle - As a small forward it's probably a pass but I think he will be popular if he gets games with the Casts.

Riccardi - 70 average in 2020, found himself without a role in 2021 and struggled. He could make some money, but probably a pass

Liam Henry - Highly rated and is moving to the wing. If he starts winning the ball around the ground he could be another bargain at his price.

[Mat0369]

I have been screwing around with my team and my structures over the last month. Here is a bit of an evolution and some odd line ups I have come up with.

Team 1


Team 2



Team 3



Team 4



Team 5



Team 6



Team 7



Team 8



Team 9



Team 10

[Mat0369]

My two most recent drafts

[Mat0369]

Something like this is also tempting me



I'm tempted to go with Neale at M3, Rowell at M4 and grab someone like Polec to make sure my defence is set.

Just looking at my earlier drafts, I don't see Hewett in the top handful so he became expendable.

With Milera out, the only player in that price range I like is Richards but he is not a guarantee to average over 60 so he is out

The new 50 interpretation for abuse could destroy Sicily in games since he is a hothead. He may be frustrating to own with the Hawks in a rebuild. Great value but maybe not a must.

Cripps at M4 works, however I feel that he may not be a keeper. The ceiling is there, but he has been extremely poor the couple years prior. At his price he is certainly worth the risk, but he is too expensive to be a stepping stone. I would almost rather bank the cash or get a bonafide premium

I was all in on Rayner last year. My main worry is that I couldn't watch him play in the pre-season game and want to see him in the guts winning the ball. Pass for now

Polec looks like an odd pick, but I prefer him to Ward. He has a pretty good scoring history and at his price could average 80-90 to make a ton of cash. Caldwell is the other that could also average 70-80 and be a nice option in that price bracket.

Brodie I worry about due to his lack of ability to cover ground, Fyfe returning and he is not great with ball in hand. I think I would rather take the risk on Xerri if I am to pick one

Riccardi could be a nice option being the Giants focal point up forward with the DPP.

I am not a fan of paying 180k for a forward pocket so Rachele is expendable.

I honestly have no idea how I am going to go. My only locks so far are as below

Lloyd, Crisp

Macrae, Touk, Neale, Rowell, Berry

Grundy, Witts

Dunkley, Butters, Cogs

Rookies I think Hinge, McCartin, SDK and Gibcus pick themselves in the backline as they're the only ones available.

Midfield right now I have Horne-Francis, Daicos, Ward, Stephens and Hough as the only ones I am confident will play. A lot of cash will be left on the bench but you're paying for JS. Having said that, are guys like Caldwell and Polec better value as they're marginally more expensive and 1st year guys don't traditionally come out and destroy the comp. We have been spoilt with Walsh and  Rowell recently.

Xerri is the one with the highest upside. Gov is a walking injury. So is Curnow. Maybe Rioli comes into consideration. I think Martin, Baldwin and Dixon/Hayes might be the consensus F6-F8.

I'm honestly just rambling right now trying to work out where I go with my side. I might just lock in Dunks and Macrae and then work from there. 

[Bully]

Same structure as mine, 5 deep defence, it was a winning move in 2021 and helped me push inside the top 20 last season.

Here's some other random thoughts -

F2 - critical but cloudy, not convinced Butters can play 22 games even though he's one of my favourite footballers.
I've eventually decided on English, I figure his ruck DPP adds a bit of worth, he's 104kg now and could become the premier ruck of the comp.

F7 - Durdin plays early so he's the perfect loop candidate with Hayes/Dixon. free hits are always helpful in this game.

R2 - Witts is value but he's upgrade material, no drama but that's 10 upgrades you need from here.

F8 - Can't see Martin playing given Baldwin was the only one with the big announcement, you may need to free up some cash

[arbel]

Like last year DEF rookies seem to be thin so I think that any rookie that gets named and is DEF you should play them there.
In that case for me, I'd trade out one of crisp/ryan and put McCartin in DEF. Actually one of your teams you posted just before that I liked better than this one :P
Agree with Bully that Martin might not get an early debut but wait for teams I guess
Pretty good side still.

[Bully]

Crisp to Short looks like the path of least resistance, that should get Martin up to Durdin who I think is being tested this afternoon.

Just to reiterate, English is the one who I think represents the best upside/durability/flexibility and isn't breaking the bank.
He was 90kg wringing wet a couple of years ago but has now achieved near parity with his 207cm frame, Stef might scare some off but he is 35 and has only played 13 games in two years.

[Mat0369]

Same structure as mine, 5 deep defence, it was a winning move in 2021 and helped me push inside the top 20 last season.

Here's some other random thoughts -

F2 - critical but cloudy, not convinced Butters can play 22 games even though he's one of my favourite footballers.
I've eventually decided on English, I figure his ruck DPP adds a bit of worth, he's 104kg now and could become the premier ruck of the comp.

F7 - Durdin plays early so he's the perfect loop candidate with Hayes/Dixon. free hits are always helpful in this game.

R2 - Witts is value but he's upgrade material, no drama but that's 10 upgrades you need from here.

F8 - Can't see Martin playing given Baldwin was the only one with the big announcement, you may need to free up some cash

I'm sold on Butters. He will play a lot of midfield so I am happy to lock him in. I don't mind the English pick as well but I'm happy to wait and see. I'm not sure what their plan is to cover Bruce so he may have to play the role he did early last year.

Durdin has been named so I'll pop him in at F6 with Baldwin and Dixon.

Witts is a stepping stone. I think Gawn will drop in price and the ideal scenario is use Witts during the Gawn/Grundy/Darcy bye and then grab the best available out of Gawn/Darcy

Martin is already out. Ryan to Sicily will free up the cash. I'm screwing around with structure now again

Like last year DEF rookies seem to be thin so I think that any rookie that gets named and is DEF you should play them there.
In that case for me, I'd trade out one of crisp/ryan and put McCartin in DEF. Actually one of your teams you posted just before that I liked better than this one :P
Agree with Bully that Martin might not get an early debut but wait for teams I guess
Pretty good side still.

Yeah that side was more a screw around and I was batting 5 deep down back which only allowed 3 rookies. I think Hinge, SDK, McCartin and Gibcus are all options to start. The one I would pass on is Gibcus if I do go back down to 3

Crisp to Short looks like the path of least resistance, that should get Martin up to Durdin who I think is being tested this afternoon.

Just to reiterate, English is the one who I think represents the best upside/durability/flexibility and isn't breaking the bank.
He was 90kg wringing wet a couple of years ago but has now achieved near parity with his 207cm frame, Stef might scare some off but he is 35 and has only played 13 games in two years.

Crisp is one of my non negotiables. I will need to look at building my structure again around my locks and then fill in the gaps. I'm tinkering with it now that I'm home from work

[Ringo]

Think both Ward and Stephens is a bit much cash for bench.  Maybe downgrade Polec to Hough or similar who will make cash and upgrade elsewhere. Maybe Sic tp someone you can afford.  That is what I have done.

[Mat0369]

I've settled on this for tonight.

Still contemplating Ryan to Sicily and Cripps up



I've locked in my Dogs and Dees which is the main thing. It means no Oliver but I'll work it out once the teams are released properly tomorrow.