The Process 21

[Mat0369]

Risky but I see the logic. Just gotta hope Briggs doesn't spoil the party.

The reason I feel confident in running with the Flynn/Hunter set up is because Briggs played really well against the Swans and Flynn still got the nod. He appears to be the preferred option. Ryder could also be away from the team for an extended period and I don't see Marshall stepping straight into the ruck role when he does return.

[Ringo]

Just a note on Fullarton - Both his goals were crumbed in the AAMI and Fagan said good agility for a big man.  Lions have always played 3 talls forward McStay. Hipwood and the resting Ruck so can see that continuing. In saying that Fullarton will be out when McStay back in 3/4 weeks unless he takes the opportunity and makes it hard to be dropped.
Cameron, Zorko. McCarthy and Bailey will crumb.

[Bully]

Just a note on Fullarton - Both his goals were crumbed in the AAMI and Fagan said good agility for a big man.  Lions have always played 3 talls forward McStay. Hipwood and the resting Ruck so can see that continuing. In saying that Fullarton will be out when McStay back in 3/4 weeks unless he takes the opportunity and makes it hard to be dropped.
Cameron, Zorko. McCarthy and Bailey will crumb.

I love a former basketballer Ringo, they usually adjust really well.

[Mat0369]

I think teams that have lined up too top heavy in years past have been exploited. I don't picture Hipwood as putting on a lot of defensive pressure for a tall. Daniher is in the same boat and doesn't have a defensive bone. The smalls make up for it when it hits the ground but I feel McStay was better in this area and he is far more agile which is why he could play both ends. Fullarton is young and may have the tools but the role is not one that sees big scores. Just looking at the Supercoach scores of the following players

McStay - averaged 62 in 2020 (career high) with 1 score of 98 (R5) and one ton (R17).

Archie Smith - Averaged 40.6, 55 and 45.3 in last 3 seasons. Averaged 79.3 in first season but played as the number 1 ruck in the first 2.

Matt Eagles - Averaged a whopping 17.5 in two games.

Fullarton - Kicked 1.2 and scored 54 in his first game against the Saints. Injured for a 6 in game 2.

Stef Martin - Averaged 50.6 in the hybrid role last year. Was banged up but his top score was a 72 in the last round and not cracking 60 in any other game.

Big O - Averaged 69 in the games listed as a forward with some  big scores in there (132 and 123) and some crap (49, 30, 38 and 48). Averaged 67 the year prior but had some games as first ruck. He is the best performing of the lot.

For comparison, one of the best young KPP prospects in Max King averaged 60.9 last year and didn't crack the ton once. Luke Jackson a 58. The Lions are also playing a handful of really good defensive teams early. The Swans, Cats, Pies and Dogs all decent or elite for points against. 

[Mat0369]

I love a former basketballer Ringo, they usually adjust really well.

He is also 200cm and taller guys generally take longer to adjust.

[Bully]

I love a former basketballer Ringo, they usually adjust really well.

He is also 200cm and taller guys generally take longer to adjust.

I'll park him on the bench silmilar to Balta a couple of years ago, still made 200k despite the ups and downs.

[Mat0369]

Annnd I made a last minute change that backfired. I was tossing up ditching Butts for potentially Harry Sharp in defence if he gets a game. I saw I could afford Mitchell for Dusty and made the move. Dusty has killed it tonight and I ended up moving Sharp to Briggs anyway so it was unnecessary tinkering which hurts.

Dow 60 and Cripps 88 is pretty disappointing considering where they were at at HT. It probably would have helped if the Richmond midfield didn't demolish them at the CB's after HT.

[Mat0369]

So team as it stands

Lloyd, Laird, Daniel, Stewart, Clark, Kosi, Highmore, Sharp
Neale, Macrae, Fyfe, Mitchell, Cripps, Taranto, Campbell, Powell, Brockman, Gulden, Scott
Gawn, Flynn, Hunter
Dunkley, Ziebell, Daniher, Impey, Dow, Warner, Bergman, Rowe

Changes I may make last minute are Bergman to Jones if Bergman is not named and Mitchell to Merrett if Mitchell is a late out. I have the cash for both moves if needed. Pretty set with the rest of the side.

[Mat0369]

Round 1 over and I have the following

Lloyd, Laird, Daniel, Stewart, Clark, Kosi (Highmore, Sharp)
Neale, Macrae, Fyfe, Mitchell, Cripps, Taranto, Campbell, Powell (Brockman, Gulden, Scott)
Gawn, Flynn (Hunter)
Dunkley, Ziebell, Daniher, Impey, Dow, Warner (Bergman, Rowe)

Total Score: 2096
Overall Rank: 6,247
Total Cash Left: $18,300

Positives: Laird, Daniel, Stewart, Clark, Macrae, Mitchell, Fyfe, Taranto, Flynn, Dunkley, Ziebell, Warner, Scott

Neutral: Lloyd, Kosi, Highmore (bench), Sharp, Cripps, Campbell, Powell, Daniher, Dow, Impey, Hunter

Bad: Neale, Brockman, Gulden (because he was on my bench), Gawn (Captain), Bergman, Rowe (on the bench)

So the real bad things for me were Captain Gawn, Lachie Neale scoring a 77, having my two best rookies on the bench and the scores from Brockman and Bergman. It is easy enough to manipulate a couple of sideways trades if needed by moving Scott forward if needed and turning Brockman/Bergman into Jordan as a worst case scenario. I probably hold my trades for this week since I think I've nailed most of my picks, I just need to field the right rookies and captain choice this week. If I do that I've scored 2280 on the round.

A couple of the last minute changes I made backfired. I was tossing up Daniel, Ridley and Mills. Had Mills in that spot for a while before settling on Daniel since he is one I have liked for the last few years but haven't managed to get into my side. I turned Dusty and Butts into Tom Mitchell and Sharp. I probably can't be too upset about the move overall, but I ended up VC'ing Cripps instead and put the C on Gawn. I still like both guys long term so it's just an unfortunate circumstance right now.

[Bully]

Good start, I think I got 1 point more than you & I'm pretty happy. Ruck strategy looking great for now, could be decisive if he holds on for 6 weeks & scores well. Grundy on the watchlist this week.

[Mat0369]

Good start, I think I got 1 point more than you & I'm pretty happy. Ruck strategy looking great for now, could be decisive if he holds on for 6 weeks & scores well. Grundy on the watchlist this week.

Main thing I was after in the rucks was cash gen.

Hunter is an interesting proposition. The Saints absolutely butchered their rotations. They got down to 5 with 5 minutes left and had Hunter on the bench with McKernan in the ruck. McKernan is bloody awful but they weren't going to sub a ruck back on in wet weather when they needed runners. He finished with 71% TOG and I feel he missed the last 10 minutes of the game.

Going back to Marvel this week and coming up against Gawn probably sees him playing more towards 80% because you can't let McKernan ruck against Gawn. It should see the cash gen start.

[Bully]

The cash generation slightly tenuous given Ryder could be back sooner rather than later, reckon you need a good 6 weeks.

[Ringo]

The good thing with Huntee is you can probably downgrade him to Treacy if Ryder returns early and continue cash gain assuming Treacy gets named.

You are a little better off than me I only scored 2031.  Like you had big scores sitting on the bench,

[Telescopic]

Great start Mat! You've missed all the carnage! Berry and Gordon the two on you're watchlist probably. Then Dow/Impey the ones on the block?

[Mat0369]

I feel okay with Dow and Impey right now. I think it might be Brockman, Bergman and Scott on the chopping block if needed. Scott could be out for Wood this week which will be handy since I need a loophole option. I'm shocked how crap Brockman's score was considering his stat line seemed good for a 50. Bergman butchered the ball but he may be okay for JS right now with Bonner and Jones injuring themselves.

Impey went from around 49 to 64 really quickly. I think the game tracker may have been busted but he actually had an excellent first quarter. It's his first real full game in a while so he ran out of legs. Same goes with Dow.