2021 Forwards

[Mat0369]

I think it's because Dunkley was thrown in as the secondary ruck which had him around the ball. They're expecting to not use him as the secondary ruck this year which will see those tackles/possessions disappear.

I also don't expect them to use Stef Martin at all but I'd be curious to see the Dogs set up. I feel Dunkley is the guy with the highest ceiling, but I don't trust the coach and would rather see how it plays out over the first 6 weeks

[RaisyDaisy]

I think it's because Dunkley was thrown in as the secondary ruck which had him around the ball. They're expecting to not use him as the secondary ruck this year which will see those tackles/possessions disappear.

I also don't expect them to use Stef Martin at all but I'd be curious to see the Dogs set up. I feel Dunkley is the guy with the highest ceiling, but I don't trust the coach and would rather see how it plays out over the first 6 weeks

I read recently that they're definitely going to be playing Stef

[Mat0369]

I read recently that they're definitely going to be playing Stef

He can't play forward and they're not going to push English out of the number 1 role. That will last a couple weeks and they'll be back to Bruce/Dunkley

[Colley Dogs]

Heeney is questionable for Round 1 last I heard, so might need to have a Plan B in place just in case

Either way, sounds like he's had an interrupted ps

Sydney star Isaac Heeney is no guarantee to feature in Round 1 as he continues his recovery from a serious ankle injury. Heeney underwent surgery seven months ago but as recently as this week was yet to join the main group at Sydney’s pre-season training. He told the AFL website he was hopeful of being at full fitness for the Swans’ season opener on March 20 against Brisbane Lions. “I’ll be aiming for it for sure but I don’t want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I’ll be right for round one,” he said.

Good point, RD. Thanks.

My confidence in Heeney isn't great. (I start with him every year, and he rewards me and burns me in equal parts every time).

My confidence is more in the structure i.e. over balance your keepers in defence, mids, and rucks... and seek out every ounce of value in the forwards.

I have a plan B, C, & D... but it's within this framework.

Heeney could become Zac Bailey (sideways, not crazy about it, a little too speculative for mine... but I like to take 1-2 lateral picks every season)... or Butters (more inclined, as I have a strong feeling about Butters and Rozee this year)... or... downgrade Heeney to Daniher, and upgrade my current M6 (Cunnington) to Zac Merrett.

Doesn't affect my expected points total, or trades-to-complete.

But yeah... if I run with Gawn-Grundy, and therefore don't need Marshall for the loop, I'm going with my read and weighting my keepers in a way I've never done before i.e. totally disregarding the forward premiums.

With the queries over Heeney (and others), it's possible I'll end up starting with Rozee at F1!!!!

It looks bad to the eye, but I still have the same ratio of ultra-premiums, premiums, keepers, mid-pricers, rookies... and the same expected early season points return... with the same number of trades-to-complete.

The bet I'm taking is that as the season unfolds, and the player prices change, the difference between the low-end mid-pricers on the forward line, & the premiums on the forward line, will be significantly lower than on the other lines. If I'm right, I'm going to complete my team a good few weeks before those who start with 2-3 500K+ forwards.

Of course, I may be wrong!!

I feel like I'm taking a risk without risking everything, if that makes sense.

It can't hurt me too badly, but it may help me greatly.

I'm very committed to this structure.

About 5 seasons ago I used to be as passionate and planned as you Collie.

Then I just accepted there are far too many variables and a good sprinkling of luck to get into the top 100 of SC to bother being so well planned.

IMO your over baking it...by lots....but meh...even after 20 years or however long its ran for planning just doesnt work out.

Yes I have a list of things that I have learnt and try to stick by that get me around 5k ranking every year...but Ive learnt  rd 1 team is most important, after then its just curveballs...trying to plan for future trades doesnt happen....ever

I'm in my 17th season and still not burnt out  ;)

Most of us are too passionate about this silly game for our own good... that's precisely why I love coming here.

Games of strategy and chance (fantasy sports, poker etc.) are meant to have an element of luck. That's the whole point. It's what makes it great. A poor player can have a great season; and a good player can have a bad season.

The challenge is to apply strategy so you're less reliant on luck than the crowd (so you're profitable lifetime).

Fair enough if you think I'm overbaking it 'lots'...

For me, every season is its own unique problem to solve.

Last season, after Round 1 lockdown, I figured out a line... I ended up finishing 760th overall (after getting as high as 50th / my best finish overall is 53rd). 

Some people play Sudoku... I prefer Supercoach.

---

What's not overbaking it is knowing the following things about your team:

- your 12 - 14 keepers
- your mid-pricers that are cash cows v. your mid-pricers that are keepers
- how many trades you need to complete your team (shouldn't be more than 21)
- how many trades left over for injuries and corrections (shouldn't be less than 9)

You don't need passion to answer these questions... you need ten minutes

--

All I'm saying is the value this season is on the forward line, and starting with Rozee (Heeney) at F1 might be optimal.

If that's overbaking it... cool.

[Colley Dogs]

Most seasons, your Ruck set-up determines your structure.

This season, your Forward set-up determines your structure.

[Sabretooth Tigers]

My thoughts on the main forwards, and how options seem bleak this year

Danger - injury pre season and forward time looming large

Sidebottom - super expensive for an aging player who will likely play forward for extended periods

Hawkins - Cameron in, no

Dunkley - treloar added and he could easily get squeezed as we see all the time

Marshall - seems safe and a good ruck cover but not a high ceiling

Dusty - how much will he play forward, do Richmond slow down and younger mids  coming through (Graham Ross Bolton)

Walters - plays forward a lot and can be up and down. Freos young mids also ready to take over

Zorko - similar to Walters

Heeney - eh will he ever be what we think he can be? No doubts he will be largely a forward still as he’s too important there, ceiling not great

Butters/Bolton- breakout potential by not worth the risk of starting them

Degoey - see above


Daniher - sure he’s cheap and can score, but His best year their forward line was Stanton, booker, francis, fantasia, colyer. Not exactly the same quality as Brisbane’s

Zieball - sure he’s at halfback and cheap but he’s one of the worst kicks in the AFL and the role may not last. He’s also getting older and is a huge bust candidate

You've summed it up perfectly, walloo44.

I'm following my gut like I did last season, and stepping off the template.

I'm starting with Heeney at F1.

In my team, every forward will be a value pick.

It's not as crazy as it sounds, when you think about the trading cycle to achieve the objective of completing your team.

You want 12 - 14 Keepers going into Round 1. That means 18 - 20 trades to complete your team, depending on whether your structure leans towards Guns n' Rookies or Mid-Pricer.

If I run with with Heeney at F1, it allows for a keeper at D4, keeper at M6, and Gawn - Grundy in the Rucks. In total, 12 Keepers. I have Rozee at F2, whom I've tagged as a keeper (don't jump on this pick... I'm getting Rozee in any structure).

This set-up requires 18 trades to complete my team, with 12 trades for corrections and injuries.

If I run with two premium Forwards (+500K) + Heeney, with Gawn-Grundy in the rucks, I'm looking at 23 trades to complete my team (and too many Rookies on the field).

If I run with Grundy-Preuss, one of those +500k forwards needs to be Marshall (sorry, not for me), and you still end up with a structure that takes 21 trades to complete.

The above structures takes more trades to complete your team than usual, because this year's ultra-premium are carrying an additional 30k - 50k in value.

So yeah... I'm trusting my read and running with Heeney at F1.

As summed up by walloo44, the biggest query on premiums is in the forward line.

.. And the best valued mid-pricers are also on the forward line.

Don't look for balance across the different lines is my view.... look for 12-14 keepers, and let the Rookies and Mid-Pricers dictate your structure.

Nobody can convince me this year's premium forward options are strong.

For the record... I don't have Daniher (don't trust his body).

;)

Hi Colley.  Been looking patiently through all comments on the forward line looking for someone who mentions Rozee. I have an extraordinarily strong feeling that he might be his break out season. And at the price the worst we could do is make some money anyway. My current f/w line is Marshall, Dusty, Rozee, Ziebell, Daniher and Impy  //  Rowe,  Spicer. Going with the G,G ruck and have 10 prem keepers plus Rowell, Rozee and Taranto with Grainger-Barrass, L Jones and T Powell as the only on field rookies.
Let's hope we're both on the ball, cheers and best of luck.

:)

[Ingram]

My current structure has landed on Martin/Dunkley (Both play rnd 14), Marshall, Heeney. Sucks that only 1 plays Rnd 14 but will work with it.

[enzedder]

Needing GG now with Preuss out and no Marshall either. Bad day for SC rucks.
Anyway in order to run Gawn and Grundy the forwards have taken the hit.

Dusty, Rozee, JZ, Daniher, Impey, Cockatoo (Macrae, Saunders)

Not wrapped about it. Actually looking at it now as I post I reckon it’s crap. Not sure what I’m going to do.

[Ingram]

Grundy Draper for me allows Dunkley Martin Heeney JoeD Imp MacRae Chugg Rowe

[Sabretooth Tigers]

Grundy Draper for me allows Dunkley Martin Heeney JoeD Imp MacRae Chugg Rowe

Hi Ing.  Heeney unlikely for round 1 and also likely to be playing deep forward.

[Sabretooth Tigers]

Needing GG now with Preuss out and no Marshall either. Bad day for SC rucks.
Anyway in order to run Gawn and Grundy the forwards have taken the hit.

Dusty, Rozee, JZ, Daniher, Impey, Cockatoo (Macrae, Saunders)

Not wrapped about it. Actually looking at it now as I post I reckon it’s crap. Not sure what I’m going to do.

Can only make plans for each line independently for each rookie scenario. if there is a line that attracts several playing rookies then that's the one to go thin on. Either that or dropping down price wise on some of the prems,  ie Rowell, Walsh, Cripps and Taranto etc. As far as Marshall goes I'm replacing him with Ladhams, pending selection, and keeping the change to get him back in.

Change of plan.
Marshall stays in side and I'll carry him for a round if that is all he'll miss. Worth it to save a trade in a year that could be even more unpredictable than the last.

;)

[enzedder]

Needing GG now with Preuss out and no Marshall either. Bad day for SC rucks.
Anyway in order to run Gawn and Grundy the forwards have taken the hit.

Dusty, Rozee, JZ, Daniher, Impey, Cockatoo (Macrae, Saunders)

Not wrapped about it. Actually looking at it now as I post I reckon it’s crap. Not sure what I’m going to do.

Can only make plans for each line independently for each rookie scenario. if there is a line that attracts several playing rookies then that's the one to go thin on. Either that or dropping down price wise on some of the prems,  ie Rowell, Walsh, Cripps and Taranto etc. As far as Marshall goes I'm replacing him with Ladhams, pending selection, and keeping the change to get him back in.

Change of plan.
Marshall stays in side and I'll carry him for a round if that is all he'll miss. Worth it to save a trade in a year that could be even more unpredictable than the last.

;)

Saints have said these type of injuries need to be monitored and take time with. There is no clear timeline in place. Stress injuries can drag on and recur. Think it’s unwise to start him and hope he plays R2 or soon enough.

[crowls]

Restructure underway,
GG option most likely now,   Marshall becomes Dunkley,  Treacy becomes Flynn.
Keeping my options open on Ladhams, had him in my first couple of teams.   200K in the bank,  can upgrade F4 rookie to JZ as well..  Wait and see where the put him.   Around the ball or half back and I start him.  Fwd no.

[Sabretooth Tigers]

 ::)

Currently looking at

Dangerfield,  Dusty,  Rozee,  Ziebell,  Daniher,  Impey    //  Rowe,  Spicer.

This set up enables me to run three rookies only on field, all of which are in defence And if we have a nightmare of a selection night for Rd,1 I can make it zero by downgrading Danger to Caldwell, which of course I really don't want to do but at least I have already planned options if the worst happens. This latest option would still give me 9 prem keepers plus Rowell, Taranto and Rozee as chances. Think we should all have a team planned for the worst possible outcome just in case. Planning for the worst whilst hoping for the best, sounds like a great explanation of what playing SC is like.

;)

[enzedder]

::)

Currently looking at

Dangerfield,  Dusty,  Rozee,  Ziebell,  Daniher,  Impey    //  Rowe,  Spicer.

This set up enables me to run three rookies only on field, all of which are in defence And if we have a nightmare of a selection night for Rd,1 I can make it zero by downgrading Danger to Caldwell, which of course I really don't want to do but at least I have already planned options if the worst happens. This latest option would still give me 9 prem keepers plus Rowell, Taranto and Rozee as chances. Think we should all have a team planned for the worst possible outcome just in case. Planning for the worst whilst hoping for the best, sounds like a great explanation of what playing SC is like.

;)

Really like that forward set up mate. Same as mine in fact if I bring Danger in via a ZMerrett swap and run with Green at M5.
Danger is getting on but now there is positive press about his R1 status, being on top of his groin injury and playing mainly midfield he is seemingly a must have.
Dusty is the solid safe pick in the forward premo category. Will be top 6 so set and forget.
Rozee is cheap and still on the rise. Good pick IMO.
JZ, Daniher and Impey are all best 22, cheap and pick themselves as cash cows; they make Gawn, Grundy, Lloyd and Neale affordable.