C-19 Strategy changes

[Samsturmfels]

With there now only being 17 rounds whats everyone's thoughts on the best strategy to attempt to combat the loss of rounds? i

Have to take a risk on a few more mid pricers I reckon.

Nothing too drastic though.

if we keep the 30 trades it may be worth it to take a few extra risks.

[frenzy]

With there now only being 17 rounds whats everyone's thoughts on the best strategy to attempt to combat the loss of rounds? i

Johnny Worsfold said games will be shorter, so NicNat types come into play I think. He has the ability to ton up in 60% game time.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/386053/-it-s-likely-to-be-shortened-game-time-bombers-bracing-for-change

[jvalles69]

My strategy will remain the same, as many keepers as I can get...

[Thewizz71]

My strategy will remain the same, as many keepers as I can get...

Mid price madness - Houston, Macpherson, NicNat, English, Petracca, Steven, Dev....... potentially 16 keepers from the get go  :-\

[jvalles69]

My strategy will remain the same, as many keepers as I can get...

Mid price madness - Houston, Macpherson, NicNat, English, Petracca, Steven, Dev....... potentially 16 keepers from the get go  :-\

Lol, have to admit I'm less inclined to start with Dusty now, had the nice 10/11 MCG games to start the season...

[Colley Dogs]

I'm given up Gawn and a premium Midfielder to get an additional two Rookies off the field.

I'm running with six keeper mids (M6 is a mid-pricer), and a mid-pricer at F6.

By flattening the mids and downgrading Gawn, I now have 15 Keepers excluding Roberton... but I'm viewing Roberton as a luxury upgrade.

Putting together a mid-pricer team that will score around the same as a cookie cutter Guns n Rookies team isn't difficult. The reason you go with Guns n Rookies is because.... at the back end of the season, a strongly completed Guns n Rookies team has a far better spread of premiums than a mid pricer team.

This won't apply in a 17 Round season.

With 17 rounds:
- a Guns n Rookies set-up won't have sufficient rounds for two phases of Rookies to mature as cash cows in order to complete
- you can be more aggressive correct trading mid pricers i.e. using them as low earning cash cows that are stepping stones into ultra premiums (not optimal in a 22 round season)

... Sam Walsh (or similar) suddenly becomes a more viable option
... Starting all of Ceglar / Brayshaw / J Steven / D Smith (or similar) becomes less risky. You can step off the ones that don't fully mature, and keep the ones that realise their scoring potential

The argument for this strategy is more powerful due to the Rookies being so weak this season. It means you can avoid those speculative lower-end Rookies that are so uncertain.

This allows for:
- Young/Ash at D7
- Green/Picket at M8/M9 (rather than M7/M8)
- C Taylor (or similar) on the forward bench rather than at F6 (and a low-end mid pricer at F6)

For this to work, you must get the following two things right:
- In the early rounds your mid-pricer team needs to score slightly better than your Guns n Rookies team (the whole idea is to get more points on the scoreboard out the gate)
- at least 50% of your selected mid-pricers need to be keepers that come off i.e. realise their scoring potential (even in a 17 Round season you can't correct all of them!).... (but, unlike a regular season where you need to nail 2 out of every 3 mid-pricers - hard to do! - in a shortened season you only need to nail 50%)

Everyone's definition of a mid-pricer is different. In a normal season, I have no more than 4 mid pricers (ideally 2 - 3).

As of today, I have 10 mid-pricers... including Docherty, Roberton, S Walsh, Macpherson, Ceglar, Andrew Brayshaw, Smith + 3 others). Five of them need to be legitimate keepers in a regular season (I'll have the trades to correct five of them, but no more).

Anyway... that's my strategic response to C-19.

Part of me hopes we play this weekend just so we can lock in our creative solutions to this mess. If the season is delayed for a bunch of weeks, no doubt we'll develop a cookie cutter template for a compromised 17 Round season.

I'm using this season as a chance to be really aggressive on my gut feel. If I get it wrong, so what?

This is only a distraction from the more serious things in our lives  ;)

Good luck everyone!

Have fun with it  :)




   

[Colley Dogs]

With there now only being 17 rounds whats everyone's thoughts on the best strategy to attempt to combat the loss of rounds? i

Have to take a risk on a few more mid pricers I reckon.

Nothing too drastic though.

Completely agree.

But...?

'A few more mid pricers' is a DRASTIC change to anyone's team.

[RoughRed]

@colley dogs interesting synopsis...
But
As you rightly say if you do not get the mid-priced mix right then you could be cooked very early

One question that needs to be answered for me is how many trades to we have for the season. If the current number then IMO we can afford to be a bit "gung ho"  If the number of trades is less then perhaps a mid-priced strategy becomes a real option

And no byes ... hmmm that to me is even more important as I had pegged out a very rough plan as a bye strategy based on my ideal finishing team ... certainly helped me move up last season

Oh well more questions and no real answers ..

May you live in interesting times  ;D

(A statement that is oft quoted as a Chinese curse but has attributed origins with Sir Austen Chamberlain -not Terry Pratchett)
Shiraz tonight ... cool climate .. Truffle Hill  8)

[Colley Dogs]

@colley dogs interesting synopsis...
But
As you rightly say if you do not get the mid-priced mix right then you could be cooked very early

One question that needs to be answered for me is how many trades to we have for the season. If the current number then IMO we can afford to be a bit "gung ho"  If the number of trades is less then perhaps a mid-priced strategy becomes a real option

And no byes ... hmmm that to me is even more important as I had pegged out a very rough plan as a bye strategy based on my ideal finishing team ... certainly helped me move up last season

Oh well more questions and no real answers ..

May you live in interesting times  ;D

(A statement that is oft quoted as a Chinese curse but has attributed origins with Sir Austen Chamberlain -not Terry Pratchett)
Shiraz tonight ... cool climate .. Truffle Hill  8)

Roughred.

'Work is the curse of the drinking classes.'

'Shiraz tonight... cool climate... Truffle Hill.'

Seems to me we'd get along famously over a red, chatting footy.

Good luck for the season, mate!

Gonna be a tannic one :)

[RaisyDaisy]

I'm not so sure it's going to be as drastic as people think

Yes we go from 22 rounds down to 17, but we don't have byes, so that's 3 rounds that were always compromised in the first place. You can argue we're only really losing 2 genuine rounds. We usually complete our sides by the end of the byes anyway, so I'm still aiming to have a complete side by Round 15ish (Will make things interesting for SC finals)

As for rookies making cash, there's a fair chance they are going to change the rookie bubble from 3 games to 2 games, so we could have our starting rookies making cash every week from Round 3

For me, the main area I'm focusing on now is that there's a big chance that at some point during the season we could see teams playing 3-5 matches over 2-3 weeks, so that's going to mean players will be rested and miss games. If this happens, you can pretty much guarantee no player is playing all 17 games this year, and that's why I'm looking at possibly cutting 1 of starting prems and splitting them into 2 mid pricers

I don't think I need to go crazy with mid pricers, especially when we already have so much value mid pricers that we were picking as keepers from the beginning anyway (Dev, Steven etc)

Regardless of teams being named this week, I'm 99% locked on starting Pickett at M9 now. There's just no way I can trust 3 other 120k mid rookies to hold their spots and play week in week out, so I don't want to get exposed there and will now be moving Rowell to M7 with Green at M8

[RaisyDaisy]

Heh, after saying all of that I thought I would play around and at least just see what I could come up with if I went with a few more mid pricers

I've actually put together a side that I quite like now haha

- 13 keepers (I'm counting Brayshaw, Steven & Dev as fwd keepers as I am picking them with the intention of them being keepers)
- 4 mid priced stepping stones
- GG
- 5 rookies on field (Noble & BZT, Rowell & Green, Taylor)

If ever I was going to have a year where I said, stuff it, YOLO and try something completely different, something against "the rules" then this would be the year to do it. If it fails, who cares? The season is compromised, so might as well try something outside the box and see how it goes!

[MontyJnr]

I really don't understand the need to make any changes to our sides in light of the shortened season honestly.

I will include more midpricers in my side IF rookies I'm depending on currently (Robertson, Starcevich, Budarick etc.) aren't named - this was always happening anyway with or without the coronavirus though.

I have also never had any issue finishing my side in 13-15 rounds, regardless of whether I've gone the guns and rookies approach or started a side with some midpricers involved. Therefore, it's business as usual for me.

We may get less trades, but remember they only gave us 24 trades for a 22 round season before 2013 and people still managed to finish their teams back then just fine.

Less rounds means less chance of us limping over the finish line ;)

[RaisyDaisy]

I really don't understand the need to make any changes to our sides in light of the shortened season honestly.

I will include more midpricers in my side IF rookies I'm depending on currently (Robertson, Starcevich, Budarick etc.) aren't named - this was always happening anyway with or without the coronavirus though.

I have also never had any issue finishing my side in 13-15 rounds, regardless of whether I've gone the guns and rookies approach or started a side with some midpricers involved. Therefore, it's business as usual for me.

We may get less trades, but remember they only gave us 24 trades for a 22 round season before 2013 and people still managed to finish their teams back then just fine.

Less rounds means less chance of us limping over the finish line ;)

100%

I've just put together a side with a few more mid pricers (Plan B) just in case the following happens:
- Lack of rookies
- Potential of teams having to play 3-5 matches over 2-3 weeks, because this is where the resting will happen and we'd want our benches to bat deeper, and mid pricers allow that. GnR teams could be in trouble during this time, relying on a lot of cheap poor scoring rookies to come off the bench and play

[MontyJnr]

I really don't understand the need to make any changes to our sides in light of the shortened season honestly.

I will include more midpricers in my side IF rookies I'm depending on currently (Robertson, Starcevich, Budarick etc.) aren't named - this was always happening anyway with or without the coronavirus though.

I have also never had any issue finishing my side in 13-15 rounds, regardless of whether I've gone the guns and rookies approach or started a side with some midpricers involved. Therefore, it's business as usual for me.

We may get less trades, but remember they only gave us 24 trades for a 22 round season before 2013 and people still managed to finish their teams back then just fine.

Less rounds means less chance of us limping over the finish line ;)

100%

I've just put together a side with a few more mid pricers (Plan B) just in case the following happens:
- Lack of rookies
- Potential of teams having to play 3-5 matches over 2-3 weeks, because this is where the resting will happen and we'd want our benches to bat deeper, and mid pricers allow that. GnR teams could be in trouble during this time, relying on a lot of cheap poor scoring rookies to come off the bench and play

Yeah personally I'm really reluctant to jump at shadows and compromise my team now for a situation that may not happen. There is every chance we don't see teams playing with numerous 3-5 day breaks this season.

If it happens, it happens and that's Supercoach. I'm certainly willing to strap myself in for the ride :)

[shaker]

I really don't understand the need to make any changes to our sides in light of the shortened season honestly.

I will include more midpricers in my side IF rookies I'm depending on currently (Robertson, Starcevich, Budarick etc.) aren't named - this was always happening anyway with or without the coronavirus though.

I have also never had any issue finishing my side in 13-15 rounds, regardless of whether I've gone the guns and rookies approach or started a side with some midpricers involved. Therefore, it's business as usual for me.

We may get less trades, but remember they only gave us 24 trades for a 22 round season before 2013 and people still managed to finish their teams back then just fine.

Less rounds means less chance of us limping over the finish line ;)

100%

I've just put together a side with a few more mid pricers (Plan B) just in case the following happens:
- Lack of rookies
- Potential of teams having to play 3-5 matches over 2-3 weeks, because this is where the resting will happen and we'd want our benches to bat deeper, and mid pricers allow that. GnR teams could be in trouble during this time, relying on a lot of cheap poor scoring rookies to come off the bench and play

Yeah personally I'm really reluctant to jump at shadows and compromise my team now for a situation that may not happen. There is every chance we don't see teams playing with numerous 3-5 day breaks this season.

If it happens, it happens and that's Supercoach. I'm certainly willing to strap myself in for the ride :)

We shouldn't have to wait to much longer to see if it's going ahead the government's rule changes don't forbid the games going ahead so I guess I'm 60/40 that it won't .