Highly Selected Players

[LordSneeze]

Something ive been thinking about over the last few days is the need to pick the highly selected players in your side. should you follow the pack or go against the grain and risk it.

IMO the key criteria will be what is the risk vs reward for each options.

Someone like Cripps is in 51.5% of sides, but there isn't a huge difference between him and say Dunkley who is in only 15.6% of sides. So I don't see much risk in not selecting.

Slightly different scenario with Devon Smith who is currently in 48.7% of sides. If he performs as per the hype and averages 90-95 there is a much higher risk of falling away from the pack. The offset is you get a rookie that can make the same amount of $ and potentially cover the points with taking a stronger premium. But you need both to fall right.
If he fails to live up to the hype though, you are a long way in front.
While the risk is high, I can see the reward being higher.

[RaisyDaisy]

This is why we have correction trades

If you start one over the other and it looks like being a mistake, make the correction and fix things

High % players are high for a reason - they're proven, so in most cases it should work

As for the Cripps vs Dunks scenarios etc, well that's just personal choice - you expect both will be right up there either way - unless 1 of them get injured you're not going to get burnt

The key to running deep in SC and finishing with a high overall finish is mostly down to how you trade during the season (and luck!) - most of us here who take this seriously should be starting with similar'ish type sides, but it's the luck and trading that separates the high finishes from the low

[LordSneeze]

This is why we have correction trades

If you start one over the other and it looks like being a mistake, make the correction and fix things

High % players are high for a reason - they're proven, so in most cases it should work

As for the Cripps vs Dunks scenarios etc, well that's just personal choice - you expect both will be right up there either way - unless 1 of them get injured you're not going to get burnt

The key to running deep in SC and finishing with a high overall finish is mostly down to how you trade during the season (and luck!) - most of us here who take this seriously should be starting with similar'ish type sides, but it's the luck and trading that separates the high finishes from the low

I agree on the trading & luck being the separating factors and from most teams I have seen there is a very clear cut standard, with only a handful really swaying from it. Eg Weaker Fwd vs Weaker Def. GG vs Non GG.

I just don't see why Cripps as an example should be in over 50% of sides when there is so many other options that are as safe as a starting pick.
Yes he is in mine too as I see him as a good pick at this point, but Im thinking it might be better to switch away from him. Only way you lose out is if he averages 130 straight off the bat or comes out with 150+ scores.
Cripps 51% - 2 years in a row over 110 & 1 over 115
Dangerfield 27% - 5 years in a row over 115

[jvalles69]

Any way we can see the 2019 winners starting side?

[RaisyDaisy]

I agree on the trading & luck being the separating factors and from most teams I have seen there is a very clear cut standard, with only a handful really swaying from it. Eg Weaker Fwd vs Weaker Def. GG vs Non GG.

I just don't see why Cripps as an example should be in over 50% of sides when there is so many other options that are as safe as a starting pick.
Yes he is in mine too as I see him as a good pick at this point, but Im thinking it might be better to switch away from him. Only way you lose out is if he averages 130 straight off the bat or comes out with 150+ scores.
Cripps 51% - 2 years in a row over 110 & 1 over 115
Dangerfield 27% - 5 years in a row over 115

Cripps is so popular because he is one of only a small handful that has shown he can go 115+ and sustain it - that's why he's a popular pick. He could definitely come out of the gate with a few 130+ scores too

Dunkley doesn't have that history yet, which is why he isn't as popular

Macrae, Neale, Fyfe, Kelly, Titch, Danger and Cripps

They are the only proven 115+ guys, so of course they're going to be very popular. The only reason Kelly and Titch aren't popular is because of their recent injury concerns, but I suspect both of their ownership % are going to soar after Marsh

[Gigantor]

Any way we can see the 2019 winners starting side?

There's an article on the HS site behind a paywall that might have it, will have a look when I get home (Got a dodgy Chrome extension that gets around it haha)

[jvalles69]

Any way we can see the 2019 winners starting side?

There's an article on the HS site behind a paywall that might have it, will have a look when I get home (Got a dodgy Chrome extension that gets around it haha)

Nice!

[Gigantor]

Any way we can see the 2019 winners starting side?

There's an article on the HS site behind a paywall that might have it, will have a look when I get home (Got a dodgy Chrome extension that gets around it haha)

Nice!

Yeah absolutely nothing in it  ::)

[Colley Dogs]

This is why we have correction trades

If you start one over the other and it looks like being a mistake, make the correction and fix things

High % players are high for a reason - they're proven, so in most cases it should work

As for the Cripps vs Dunks scenarios etc, well that's just personal choice - you expect both will be right up there either way - unless 1 of them get injured you're not going to get burnt

The key to running deep in SC and finishing with a high overall finish is mostly down to how you trade during the season (and luck!) - most of us here who take this seriously should be starting with similar'ish type sides, but it's the luck and trading that separates the high finishes from the low

I think we have to be conservative in our approach to correction trades this season. It goes without saying that in-season trading is important... and correction trades are part of that.

But I don't believe we'll have the same luxury for correction trades this season as we have in the past.

Typically, I try to start with 13-14 keepers, normally requiring in the region of 19-21 trades to complete my team. That leaves 9-11 trades for injuries and correction trades. This is more than enough! Assuming 6-8 trades for injuries, you can reasonably expect to have 2-4 trades up your sleeve for corrections.

This season, however, teams are starting with fewer keepers. I'm currently starting with 12; which means I'm going to need 23 trades to complete my team (I'm seeing a lot of teams out there in a similar boat). Assuming 6-8 trades for injuries... well, you do the maths.

That's why I think this season we need to play it with a straight bat - take as few risks as possible in how you set up - because we're not going to have the luxury of 2-4 correction trades like we normally do.

A correction trade for a Rookies we missed... absolutely, I can justify that.

But a correction trade for Bontempelli to Dunkley or vice versa, no way... not this season. Of course, you can do it... but you're not going to complete your team optimally in the back-end of the season.

This season we need to remove correction trades from our strategy. Choose your premiums knowing you're going to live and die by them. That's my reading, anyway.

[RaisyDaisy]

A correction trade for a Rookies we missed... absolutely, I can justify that.

But a correction trade for Bontempelli to Dunkley or vice versa, no way... not this season. Of course, you can do it... but you're not going to complete your team optimally in the back-end of the season.

This season we need to remove correction trades from our strategy. Choose your premiums knowing you're going to live and die by them. That's my reading, anyway.

When I referenced correction trades, I was more so referring to the mid price guys like Dev, Steven etc

You don't trade out your proven super prems off a couple of bad games - nobody is doing Bont to Dunks, Cripps to Titch etc

[Colley Dogs]

A correction trade for a Rookies we missed... absolutely, I can justify that.

But a correction trade for Bontempelli to Dunkley or vice versa, no way... not this season. Of course, you can do it... but you're not going to complete your team optimally in the back-end of the season.

This season we need to remove correction trades from our strategy. Choose your premiums knowing you're going to live and die by them. That's my reading, anyway.

When I referenced correction trades, I was more so referring to the mid price guys like Dev, Steven etc

You don't trade out your proven super prems off a couple of bad games - nobody is doing Bont to Dunks, Cripps to Titch etc

Fair enough... we're on the same page there. Bont - Dunk is a bad example (I only said Bont - Dunk because the comments ahead were referencing Cripps - Dunk).

My point though... if you select Dev Smith or J. Steven... this season, more than any other, you CANNOT correct trade them (for the reasons I outlined above).

This is why I don't currently have Dev Smith or J. Steven in my team. If I pick them they must be as keepers, and not as speculative keepers.

I'm curious... if you have Dev Smith... how many keepers do you have in your team (excluding him)?... and how many trades to complete your team (including him)?

[Mat0369]

Funnily enough I just made a team with no Steven or Dev in it to see what options I had to swing ond to a rookie and the other to Walters.

I didn't have Roberton or Doedee in my side either and orginally had Nic Nat as a stepping stone and for this exercise also turned Nic Nay into Sauce to free up cash. It left me with this team in terms of keepers.

Lloyd, Laird, Doc
Macrae, Neale/Kelly, Cripps, Mitchell, Danger
Grundy
Whitfield, Martin, Walters

So that's 12 keepers and Sauce. I compare that to my current team and that gives me the following

Lloyd/Laird, Doc, Howe
Macrae, Neale/Oliver, Kelly, Cripps, Mitchell
Grundy
Whitfield, Martin, Steven, Dev

13 keepers and Nic Nat as the stepping stone to Gawn over Sauce.

Something I haven't considered until now is starting Ceglar in the ruck instead of Nic Nat. It would potentially pocket me another keeper bringing the total to 14

[Money Shot]

Cripps is so popular because he is one of only a small handful that has shown he can go 115+ and sustain it - that's why he's a popular pick. He could definitely come out of the gate with a few 130+ scores too

Dunkley doesn't have that history yet, which is why he isn't as popular

Macrae, Neale, Fyfe, Kelly, Titch, Danger and Cripps

They are the only proven 115+ guys, so of course they're going to be very popular. The only reason Kelly and Titch aren't popular is because of their recent injury concerns, but I suspect both of their ownership % are going to soar after Marsh
[/quote]

This is the exact reason I’ve dropped Dunkley for now. Although I believe he has a higher ceiling and could come out of the blocks firing he just hasn’t proven that he is a consistent 110+ scorer across a season like the above mentioned guys have.

[Ringo]

I disagree slightly with Colleys analysis of trades.  Usually when bringing in a prem a trade is usually 1 up and 1 down so assume you start with 12 that means 20 trades and say an extra 2 to get cash if not having sufficient cash for the one up one down leaving 8 trades to use.  I usually work on this base to try and have a couple of trades left for finals.
I currently have Roberton and Smith in my team and if they are not scoring well enough to retain as D6/F6 they will be the last traded hopefully with one trade. Thats the plan but as we know luck is required to keep to plans.

[RaisyDaisy]

I disagree slightly with Colleys analysis of trades.  Usually when bringing in a prem a trade is usually 1 up and 1 down so assume you start with 12 that means 20 trades and say an extra 2 to get cash if not having sufficient cash for the one up one down leaving 8 trades to use.  I usually work on this base to try and have a couple of trades left for finals.
I currently have Roberton and Smith in my team and if they are not scoring well enough to retain as D6/F6 they will be the last traded hopefully with one trade. Thats the plan but as we know luck is required to keep to plans.

Good luck doing 1 up 1 down when turning a mid rookie into a 550k+ prem