The Process 2020

[Woppa15]

I also am a massive fan of the Howe pick. Could easily go 90+ this year and that screams value.

I think Howes scoring depends heavily on the defenders around him, probably more so than any other. If he has to play accountable and doesn’t get to be 3rd up then i can easily see sub 90avg. If the pies key backs are fit and healthy then he can go 95+ easily.

[Mat0369]

So my starting team was the following

Sicily, Doc, Howe, Noble, Zerk-Thatcher, McAsey (Starcevich, Brander)
Macrae, Kelly, Cripps, Bont, Danger, Rowell, Green, McInerney (Pickett, Budarick, Brown)
Grundy, Nic Nat (Williams)
Whitfield, Dusty, Petracca, Dev, Taylor, Cavarra (King, Davis)

Total score: 2174
Rank: 19856

I made the following trades this past week

Zerk-Thatcher - Cameron using Williams
Davis - Bennell using Budarick
Green - Rivers
Cavarra - Young using Brander

Team this week was

Sicily, Doc, Howe, Noble, Young, Starcevich (McAsey, Williams)
Macrae, Kelly, Cripps, Bont, Danger, Rowell, Pickett, Bennell (McInerney, Brown, Rivers)
Grundy, Nic Nat (Cameron)
Whitfield, Dusty, Petracca, Dev, Taylor, Brander (King, Budarick)

Score: 2117
Overall: 27336

My midfield premiums are slaughtering me. No Neale and having Macrae, Bont, Danger and Kelly has been a death sentence. None of them have scored more than 110 yet.

I currently have one trade lined up for this week. I'm thinking McAsey to Pittonet using some Brander and Cameron DPP magic.

[Mat0369]

Instead of using Cameron and Brander DPP magic I'm using Cameron, Budarick/Dusty and Rivers DPP magic instead. I'll probably go with the following lineup

Sicily, Doc, Howe, Noble, Rivers, Starcevich (Young, Williams)
Macrae, Kelly, Cripps, Bont, Danger, Rowell, Pickett, McInerney (Dusty, Brown, Bennell)
Grundy, Nic Nat (Pittonet)
Whitfield, Petracca, Dev, Taylor, Brander, Cameron (King, Budarick)

Captaincy I'm thinking either Josh Kelly into Grundy or Grundy into Cripps/Danger

[Mat0369]

I ended up doing McAsey to Pittonet and Martin to Selwood last week. It left me with the following team

Sicily, Doc, Howe, Noble, Young, Starcevich (Rivers, Williams)
Macrae, Cripps, Bont, Danger, Selwood, Rowell, Pickett, Brown (Bennell, McInerney, Kelly)
Grundy, Nic Nat (Pittonet)
Whitfield, Cameron, Taylor, Brander, King, Budarick (Petracca, Dev)

Cripps was my captain and I scored a whopping 1852 to have me ranked 27,895

This week I made the following trades

Whitfield to Simpkin and Williams to Williamson

Team is looking like this

Sicily, Doc, Howe, Noble, Starcevich, Rivers (Young, Williamson)
Macrae, Kelly, Cripps, Bont, Danger, Selwood, Rowell, McInerney (Brown, Bennell, Pickett)
Grundy, Nic Nat (Pittonet)
Simpkin, Petracca, Dev, Taylor, Brander, Budarick (Cameron, King)


Howe will need to go next week so I'll make my judgements at the end of the round.

[Mat0369]

Final score for the week is 2246. Overall is now 14,451

Inital thoughts were to downgrade Howe to Hill and downgrade my worst performing rookie to Green/Serong/Mahoney/Butler to keep the cash gen going. I currently have $97,300 in the bank and cash gen will be key to finishing off my side.

The other option is the points. I could trade Howe to a premium and not lose those points by starting Hill on field. The two guys I'd consider would be Lloyd and Daniel. Stewart would be the other but he is also injured.

I can go the inbetween option and grab Ridley to pocket some cash and get a potential premium/keeper. He looks like a gun and I thought he would take a step into a potential 90 average last year.

I currently have Pitto sitting on my bench with Nic Nat at R2. That's a lot of points/cash to be left on my bench. I'm also thinking Nic Nat out to bring in a premium forward. I could also hold him a week and straight swap to Whitfield

[Mat0369]

I dropped this in the trades thread

I currently have Grundy, Nic Nat and Pittonet as my three rucks. I was thinking that I should trade Nic Nat this week because I have Pitto sitting on my bench and it feels like it's a lot of points to be sitting there right now. The cash from Nic Nat could have been utilised to send a rookie to the bench and trade in a premium.

Now that the games have been flipped about, it turns out Pitto plays on Thursday and I'm thinking of using my trades for an effective loophole. I put the E on Pittonet, if he scores trash I keep Nic Nat and trade a rookie. If he scores 90 or higher I dump Nic Nat to a premium and bank the points.

Here is a list of my other rookies and their B/E's

Starcevich - 11 keep
Noble -  17 keep
Rivers - -15 keep
Young - -21 keep
Williamson - -26 keep
Rowell - 21 Brownlow
Pickett - 29 hold
Brown - 2 keep
McInereny - -1 keep
Bennell - -11 keep
Taylor - 39 unsure
Brander - 12 unsure
Budarick - 1 keep
King - 33 keep
Cameron - -16 keep

They all have lowish BE's and cash still to make. Brander had a bit of a stinker last week so the cash gen could slow. Taylor is plodding with back to back poor scores but still has cash to make. King and Pickett haven't made enough cash to be worth trading. I'm thinking it has to be one of Taylor or Brander out in that situation. If I am downgrading Hill makes the most sense. I can also upgrade to someone like a Ceglar if I trade Howe to Ridley.

If I trade out Nic Nat I could get a combo of Ridley and Walters or Lloyd/Daniel and Smith. The other option is I do Howe to Hill and Nic Nat to a premium to try and do the upgrade the following week to Whitfield who will have that awful 8 out of his rotating average. If I trade Howe to Ridley this week that leaves me with the option of also making a Brander to any player 580k and under if the prices change enough. That could see me grab any premium forward/defender that isn't Lloyd/Walters and under.

In the end I'll be moving Nic Nat over the next fortnight, it's just if I pull the trigger this week. The quick summary  of options is

Howe and Taylor to Ridley and Hill
Howe and Taylor to Ridley and Ceglar
Howe and Taylor to Daniel/Lloyd and Hill
Howe and Nic Nat to Daniel/Lloyd and Smith
Howe and Nic Nat to Ridley and Walters
Howe and Nic Nat to Hill and Walters/Smith


Any thoughts?

[crowls]

Giving my thoughts to you Mat is like trying to teach Bradman or Smith how to bat.   
Appreciate the clarity of your thought processes and how you document them.   

FWIW
Uncertainty on McKenna's return and impact on Ridley - hopefully minimal as I brought Ridley in for the abandoned game and think  he is ripe to break out this year. 
Ceglar is a great option for FWD keeper and ruck backup,  will end up F6/7  Scoring ruck/fwds will end up ranking high -top 10-15 fwds for the year.     Agree with you Lloyd is needed Q is will he be cheaper down the track.   Daniel is a great choice as he is such a good user of the ball that SC scoring is always rewarded. 
Walters continues to perform consistently, I have been biased against selecting him over the past two years as my perception was he lacked consistency.  Maybe I am wrong,  you would be paying top dollar for him though.

For me this week with your options  probably Hill/Ceglar or Daniel/Hill.   

[Ringo]

Nic Nat up against Sinclair this week so should return better score.  Would you have enough cash to do Howe to Daniel and Taylor to Cegler if Pitt scores more than 90?

[Mat0369]

Well Sinclair and Naismith are both out! Gotta hold Nic Nat now. I'm thinking Noble to Hill since he has been dropped and then using Brander to loophole Williamson and Rivers via some DPP magic.

I did not have the cash for Daniel and Ceglar doing the upgrade in that case and still can't. I'm basically tossing up Daniel and Ridley at this point. I understand the skepticism around McKenna, and he would take the kick outs, but it is a different role since Ridley is an intercept player.

Thanks for the feedback guys, I had a feeling plans would change once teams were out but the shuffling has forced me to probably bit the bullet a little early here.

[Mat0369]

In Ridley and Hill for Howe and Noble. It also left me with  299k. That will allow me to turn Taylor or Pickett into a premium. I'm leaning towards Taylor to Whitfield next week

[Ringo]

Nice Trades. Whitfield has a B/E of 186 this week so will drop even further so keep an eye on that next week as well as you may be able to upgrade elsewhere and get Whitfield in 2 weeks.

[Mat0369]

I believe the 8 comes out of his rotation next week do his BE is projected to be 91 if he scores 74 this week. He may still have a price drop next week but it will likely be minimal and more likely to increase

[crowls]

I believe the 8 comes out of his rotation next week do his BE is projected to be 91 if he scores 74 this week. He may still have a price drop next week but it will likely be minimal and more likely to increase

Agree next week is the right time for whitfield.    tossing up viney/pickett for green/serong as my last trade this week.   will upgrade someone to whitfield next week and hopefully noble/hurn.   
What peoples thoughts on green v serong

[Mat0369]

I prefer Green but don't trust GWS. I think Serong will get more opportunity

[Mat0369]

Scored 1956 for the week and ranked 14939 overall. Looks like I may have some issues coming up this week. Team below

Sicily, Doc, Ridley, Starcevich, Hill, Young (Rivers Williamson)
Macrae, Kelly, Cripps, Bont, Danger, Selwood, Rowell, McInerney (Brown, Bennell, Pickett)
Grundy, Nic Nat (Pittonet)
Simpkin, Petracca, Dev, Taylor, Brander, Budarick (Cameron, King)

Rowell needs to go and Whitfield is the player that makes the most sense with his 71 BE and pocketing 30k.

Starcevich has a 70 BE and is almost 300k. I think trading him makes the most sense. It would either be an upgrade to Yeo which also leaves me with 145k in cash or a downgrade to Aarts which leaves me with 500k in cash.

My other problems

Budarick - BE 61, poor score on the weekend and is only about 230k. I'd say he will hold his spot, but he needs a decent score to get the cash gen going again.
Tyler Brown - See Budarick, but his spot is in doubt
Bennell - Will Goodwin actually play him?
Pickett - Does he come back in and can he string a few good games together?
Brander - Out with injury, does he come back into a winning Eagles team?
McInerney - Does he hold his spot?
Rivers - See McInerney but would be in even more doubt
Dev - Back to back 70's after back to back 105's
Bont - Spud outside of one game
Selwood - Close to serving his purpose of the cash grab, actually went backwards this week. Stepping stone time has to be in the next 3 weeks since his scoring dried up
Danger - Meh
Nic Nat - Is just about done serving his purpose. 508k averaging 100 with a BE  of 115.
Pittonet - 435k and 76 BE. Same boat as Nic Nat with cash drying up soon.

Guys on my watch list to trade in

Bailey Smith- In two weeks he could be close to a straight swap for Taylor. Lock and load.
Cunnington - Will be a juicy price when he is fit.
Treloar/Adams - I'm intersted to see if Adams scoring takes a dip with Treloar back and if Treloar is a nice POD
Duncan - The actual premium Geelong mid
Parker - Ultimate POD and someone I've been keen on a while
Gaff - About to take a nice dip in price and see Parker
Hurn - Could be a great pick as they head back to Perth
Daniel and Lloyd - Safe premium defenders to grab when they dip a little
Stewart - Locked into D6 when he returns and goes through his price drop
JPK - Will he bounce back? Could also be a nice POD
Neale - Killing me every week but I can't pay top dollar
Gawn - Nic Nat/Pitto become him eventually
Parfitt - Intersting POD, but can he stay healthy?