Can anybody challenge the ruck GOATS?

[_wato]

That's where the problem lies. If Sauce is dropped in R4 and Mumford comes in there you need to trade to avoid a 0 and there is very limited options for trades at the price point.

There is also no real good FWD DPP options that will allow cover unless you want to take a major risk.

That’s where you’ve got to think about it realistically. Sauce has Stanley Rd1, Gawn Rd2, English Rd3, Belly Rd4, Sinclair/Naismith Rd5, Witts Rd6, Nank Rd7 before Grundy/Marshall/NN from Rounds 8-10. The only matchup that frightens me is Gawn. Don’t see him getting dropped unless something seriously significant such as injury or horrible poor form happens. But I can see him beating most of those guys or at least coming out even (Witts and English). And unless Mummy is producing incredible form it’d have to be enough to drop Sauce whos 3 years younger. Can 100% see Mummy giving Sauce a rest later in the year to freshen him before finals but Sauce has pretty much had a whole year out of the rigours of AFL and has had a full PS so need to rest him early on. Take him for his ride for 7 weeks, enjoy the 90avg and 100k hike and hope Gawn who has dropped 50k both seasons he’s started full price drops as well. 350k has now hopefully becomes 200k or less and you’ve made up points elsewhere.

[shaker]

Having a look at my team with Jacobs and there's a lot you can do elsewhere, will still be going with Gawn but if you could be 100% convinced that Sauce will be the #1 ruck and play all 22 games then I think he can be considered.  Why don't people think he will play 22?  Mumford is nowhere near it any more and then chased Sauce to fill this gap.  Can't see him averaging under 90 which is enough for a stepping stone to Gawn or whoever the #2 ruckman will be if not Gawn, it's just where he's locked into a full season or not.  No way they play both together.

His scores of 67, 74, 76, 51, 47, 42, 70, 71, 68, 63, back in 2018 when he was 2 years younger puts me off if I'm not going with Gawn because he is injured think I'll pass on Jacobs , Nic Nat although dearer even with limited game time is a much better scorer.

[jvalles69]

His scores of 67, 74, 76, 51, 47, 42, 70, 71, 68, 63, back in 2018 when he was 2 years younger puts me off if I'm not going with Gawn because he is injured think I'll pass on Jacobs , Nic Nat although dearer even with limited game time is a much better scorer.

That's something I hadn't looked at yet, but that was the year the Crows were in absolute shambles and every single player was below their best so that has to be accounted to some degree.  And in no way am I set on Jacobs, just throwing out everything to make the best decision.

[_wato]

His scores of 67, 74, 76, 51, 47, 42, 70, 71, 68, 63, back in 2018 when he was 2 years younger puts me off if I'm not going with Gawn because he is injured think I'll pass on Jacobs , Nic Nat although dearer even with limited game time is a much better scorer.

Hahaha but you fail to account for the
90, 116, 82, 93, 94, 88, 126, 145, 93, 95, 97, 99 that year too. More good scores than bad ones. He averaged 84 on the season lol. And their midfield consistently featured M Crouch, Douglas, Atkins, CEY, Greenwood and Gibbs. Sloane played 12 games, Brad Crouch didn’t even play a single game.
Sauce is going to a team that has Coniglio, Hopper, Taranto, Kelly, Ward, Whitfield, Greene, ZWilliams. They were the number one clearance team in the league last year with Mummy. Sauce is a better tap ruck? And 3 years younger.
And if you want to argue his opposition, he has Bellchambers/Philips, Naismith/Sinclair, Nank, Stanley, Witts, English and Gawn!! In the first 7 weeks. Half of them are rubbish or part timers!!

Realistically in every full season he’s played he hasn’t averaged worse than 84 and he’s now playing with the best midfield in the game and a soft draw at the start to allow an upgrade to Gawn. Don’t understand how NN is a better prospect at all.

[Mat0369]

He has also averaged 86.6, 95.7, 83.9 and 80.2 the last 4 years. Apart from the 95.7 he has been a mid 80's average at best while progressively getting worse and beaten around the ground. He isn't a number 1 ruck anymore plain and simpld. Just because the Giants were desperate enough to go after him it doesn't make him a relevant SC option.

You're more likely to get a 95 out of Nic Nat who has proven he can score big numbers in limited game time. You're also better off spending the extra 50k for Nank or Phillips with Draper as your R3 if you start Phillips.

[Trindacut]

Jacobs is a lumbering brainless brute, I encourage you pick him wato, will be one more easy beat this year for me

[_wato]

Hahahahahaha what and Mumford is a number one ruck is he? Didn’t know going and doing boxing and racking lines meant you were a sure thing to be a better fit than Sauce lmao

Okay, so humour me. A ‘mid average 80’s at best’ playing for the Crows who have long been known to be slow, stagnant and counter productive in terms of their mids and he’s going to the team with the BEST MIDFIELD IN THE COMP at his feet. AND a guy like Mummy who was a CORPSE last year averaged 83? Mate Mummy was cooked all year and averaged 83!!!!

If you think NN is a better choice at 110k more you are an idiot. And if you honestly think Nank or Phillips are better choices then that is just being absolutely ridiculous.

One more easy beat Hahahaha righto buddy, 348k for a guy who is 31 and has the #1 ruck mantle on the best midfield team in the comp. We’ll see how it goes.

[_wato]

Also Sauce has NEVER averaged below 11 touches a game apart from his rookie season (4 games) and he averages 32 hit outs across the span of his career.
Last 3 years averaged 40, 36 and 36 HO’s per game. I’d say Sauce should be comfortable to average 30% HOTA rate at worst given the blokes at his feet so there’s 60 points on Hitouts alone.

[eaglesman]

Also Sauce has NEVER averaged below 11 touches a game apart from his rookie season (4 games) and he averages 32 hit outs across the span of his career.
Last 3 years averaged 40, 36 and 36 HO’s per game. I’d say Sauce should be comfortable to average 30% HOTA rate at worst given the blokes at his feet so there’s 60 points on Hitouts alone.

I have ceglar fwd.... making me consider sauce again given I have some back up there .

Don’t mind it

[Mat0369]

They brought Mummy out of retirement because they were desperate for a ruck. It's the exact same reason they traded an over the hill Sauce into their side. They are in a premiership window and figured if they could bring in an experienced ruck that can break even they might win it all. It doesn't mean that either are legitimately anything more than depth guys at this point in their careers.

That elite Giants midfield averages a whopping 3 more clearances per game in 2019, 2 more in 2018, 3 in 2017 and 2 in 2016. The Crows issues haven't been clearances, it has been outside run. Their clearance numbers actually improved from 2018 to 2019 with ROB doing the majority of the ruck work. Yes it helps that Sloane and Brad Crouch were back, but Gibbs and CEY were top 30 in the comp and better than any Giant apart from Ward and Cogs in that statistic in 2018.

These are Nic Nats scores and the TOG %

2019

99 and 58%
88 and 52%
94 and 57%
68 and 53%
90 and 62%

87.8 ppg average with a 56.4% TOG average

2018

113 and 54%
85 and 56%
110 and 56%
92 and 56%
103 and 57%
70 and 61%
93 and 65%
118 and 58%
107 and 56%
129 and 61%
87 and 64%
99 and 65%
86 and 68%
115 and 63%
42 and 21% (injured)

100.5 ppg average with a 60% TOG average when you exclude the injury game

Nic Nat can put up big numbers from a limited amount of time on ground. For the extra coin he is easily worth it. It's always a question of health with him, not his scoring ability. I'd take him vs the guy that has been declining, is turning 32 and has struggled to get around the ground the last few years. They have also added Tim Kelly to that midfield which is just another weapon.

If you're looking at previous numbers Nank has averaged 98 and 88 in the two seasons prior to last year. He is more likely to average 90ish than Jacobs. Phillips has scored okay as the number 1 ruck but his body has been trash. He is constantly injured and I wouldn't expect that to change. I do think if he is healthy he averages more than Jacobs as well. Personally I'm starting Draper at R3 because with Bellchambers being cooked and Phillips always injured he will likely get a crack as soon as he is healthy.

If you want to run with an over the hill Sauce I'd be keeping some free cash because it probably backfires pretty quick and you're screwed unless you want to downgrade to Naismith and his 30's

[shaker]

They brought Mummy out of retirement because they were desperate for a ruck. It's the exact same reason they traded an over the hill Sauce into their side. They are in a premiership window and figured if they could bring in an experienced ruck that can break even they might win it all. It doesn't mean that either are legitimately anything more than depth guys at this point in their careers.

That elite Giants midfield averages a whopping 3 more clearances per game in 2019, 2 more in 2018, 3 in 2017 and 2 in 2016. The Crows issues haven't been clearances, it has been outside run. Their clearance numbers actually improved from 2018 to 2019 with ROB doing the majority of the ruck work. Yes it helps that Sloane and Brad Crouch were back, but Gibbs and CEY were top 30 in the comp and better than any Giant apart from Ward and Cogs in that statistic in 2018.

These are Nic Nats scores and the TOG %

2019

99 and 58%
88 and 52%
94 and 57%
68 and 53%
90 and 62%

87.8 ppg average with a 56.4% TOG average

2018

113 and 54%
85 and 56%
110 and 56%
92 and 56%
103 and 57%
70 and 61%
93 and 65%
118 and 58%
107 and 56%
129 and 61%
87 and 64%
99 and 65%
86 and 68%
115 and 63%
42 and 21% (injured)

100.5 ppg average with a 60% TOG average when you exclude the injury game

Nic Nat can put up big numbers from a limited amount of time on ground. For the extra coin he is easily worth it. It's always a question of health with him, not his scoring ability. I'd take him vs the guy that has been declining, is turning 32 and has struggled to get around the ground the last few years. They have also added Tim Kelly to that midfield which is just another weapon.

If you're looking at previous numbers Nank has averaged 98 and 88 in the two seasons prior to last year. He is more likely to average 90ish than Jacobs. Phillips has scored okay as the number 1 ruck but his body has been trash. He is constantly injured and I wouldn't expect that to change. I do think if he is healthy he averages more than Jacobs as well. Personally I'm starting Draper at R3 because with Bellchambers being cooked and Phillips always injured he will likely get a crack as soon as he is healthy.

If you want to run with an over the hill Sauce I'd be keeping some free cash because it probably backfires pretty quick and you're screwed unless you want to downgrade to Naismith and his 30's

Cheers for all those stats on Nic Nat I knew he scored well for his TOG but not that well hey I might even go with him even if Gawn is a goer  ;D

[Mat0369]

Cheers for all those stats on Nic Nat I knew he scored well for his TOG but not that well hey I might even go with him even if Gawn is a goer  ;D

He has rarely played into the 70's when it comes to TOG. He has always had another ruck give him a chop out dating back to the days with Cox in the side and has been able to put up pretty good numbers. It helps that he can jump over just about any ruck in the comp and had really good clearance mids at his feet. With how stacked the Eagles midfield is I don't see the downside. He is pretty much the only player I would pick other than Gawn for R2.

[_wato]

Great argument and I see your point but what is stopping NN from continuing to only average 60% TOG.

A lot of track watchers from Perth are saying he is overweight and carrying far too much excess still which for a guy with bad knees is horrible news, PLUS he plays on the hardest surface in the country every 2 weeks.

For a guy who's played 33 games in 3 seasons (Nic Naitanui) I would 100% back Sauce in to play most weeks over NN. Like you mentioned it's not a scoring issue but it's an injury issue and he is much bigger chance of breaking down early than Sauce going backwards. Sauce is priced at what 65, anything higher and he makes money.

Plus I will keep coming back to this point. A broken down corpse who had a whole year off football in Shane Mumford averaged 82 (kept thinking it was 83) last year. Tell me with absolute honesty and with fair argument how Sauce is not even close to mirroring that this year despite being 3 years younger and with his body in MUCH better shape. Has a greater overall career average than Mummy and PLAYED football all last year. Hell he whacked out a 125 in his last game. And Giants are in no way going to be playing Mummy > Sauce unless Sauce is injured like I've already stated. Mumford is a liability on defence, he cannot run and he gives away far too many free kicks to be worthwhile.

[Mat0369]

If Nic Nat averages 60% TOG it probably sees him get through the season and still average 95-100 ppg. That is exactly what you want for a guy that you are using as a stepping stone that's priced at about 83 ppg. The fact he can score while being managed through games is actually more a positive than a negative.


If you want Sauce to be a legit stepping stone he probably has to average 90. 80-85 is probably serviceable from a cash gen point but you are losing too many points to the big dogs each week if they average 110-120. I'm always going to take the guy that is an injury risk compared to the guy that I don't think can score anywhere near as much.

Sauce is also not 3 years younger than Mummy last season. Mummy was 32 and turned 33 in season last year. Sauce is 31 and turns 32 in season. It's one year in age difference. Mummy has always scored points from his tackles and hit outs to advantage. His tackle numbers dropped last year and he saw himself lose about 6 HO's per game. That saw the 17 points per game difference from the last time he played footy.

If you're also comparing season to season, Mummy total seasons over 90 is 8, Sauce is 5. Three of the last 4 years Sauce has gone in the 80's and that's probably what I am expecting.

Sauce had a whopping 58 hitouts against English for that 125. He had 15 the week prior against Grundy and 36 against Tom Hickey. That 36 is probably about bang on and if he continues to decline it might drop down to 33-34 per game. The Giants also like to play fast so I don't know how much footy he gets in transition with the way they slingshot off half back.

Sauce will play ahead of Mummy, I'm not questioning that. I'm questioning Sauce and him being a viable SC option at this point of his career or score enough at his price to justify selecting him from a cash gen and points lost perspective.

[frenzy]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/371534/giant-battle-his-knees-and-ankles-are-sort-of-old-and-hanging-on