Can anybody challenge the ruck GOATS?

Started by meow meow, December 27, 2019, 04:02:09 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Colley Dogs

Quote from: js19 on February 01, 2020, 11:09:02 PM
Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 01, 2020, 10:17:52 PM
For those considering Sauce...

What are you expecting him to average?

Or at least, what does he need to average at his price to be a worthwhile pick?

I just don't see him as a viable option, but would love to hear some reasoning.

For me it's ROB as the only alternative to Gawn.

(If I was forced to speculate, I'd go English).

For me it would need to be a combo deal

Example:
Gawn + cheap rook = 130 + 50 = 180
Sauce + Greenwood = 90 + 90 = 180

If I was to pick Greenwood I would expect a 90+ as a keeper, so a 90 from Sauce would be acceptable. He'd gain a bit of cash, and can upgrade to Gawn. Both examples require one upgrade
. Sauce won't make as much $$ as a decent rook, but has the bonus of playing in rd13, and can become Gawn for the bye. If these numbers hold up, there's not much lost (but not much gained either). If Sauce gets the #1 ruck role and goes 100+ it's a win.

Absolutely.

Definitely combinations.

But for Sauce to come off you need to have a belief he'll produce a 90 average; and that he'll play 22 games.

I see him averaging mid to high 80s, and giving up 2-3 games to Mumford.

But that answers my question. You're assigning him an average of 90, with rock solid job security.

If you don't take Sauce, the next best valued option - and lower risk option - is ROB (although I'm also considering English).

Believe me... I want Gawn to be fit and an obvious selection.

And... I would LOVE Sauce to be an obvious back-up lock.

But I just don't see the Sauce pick; and the ROB pick doesn't excite me in the least.

js19

Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 01, 2020, 11:39:23 PM
Quote from: js19 on February 01, 2020, 11:09:02 PM
Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 01, 2020, 10:17:52 PM
For those considering Sauce...

What are you expecting him to average?

Or at least, what does he need to average at his price to be a worthwhile pick?

I just don't see him as a viable option, but would love to hear some reasoning.

For me it's ROB as the only alternative to Gawn.

(If I was forced to speculate, I'd go English).

For me it would need to be a combo deal

Example:
Gawn + cheap rook = 130 + 50 = 180
Sauce + Greenwood = 90 + 90 = 180

If I was to pick Greenwood I would expect a 90+ as a keeper, so a 90 from Sauce would be acceptable. He'd gain a bit of cash, and can upgrade to Gawn. Both examples require one upgrade
. Sauce won't make as much $$ as a decent rook, but has the bonus of playing in rd13, and can become Gawn for the bye. If these numbers hold up, there's not much lost (but not much gained either). If Sauce gets the #1 ruck role and goes 100+ it's a win.

Absolutely.

Definitely combinations.

But for Sauce to come off you need to have a belief he'll produce a 90 average; and that he'll play 22 games.

I see him averaging mid to high 80s, and giving up 2-3 games to Mumford.

But that answers my question. You're assigning him an average of 90, with rock solid job security.

If you don't take Sauce, the next best valued option - and lower risk option - is ROB (although I'm also considering English).

Believe me... I want Gawn to be fit and an obvious selection.

And... I would LOVE Sauce to be an obvious back-up lock.

But I just don't see the Sauce pick; and the ROB pick doesn't excite me in the least.

I guess that's what makes things interesting if Gawn is touch and go. Problem with Goldy, ROB is that you don't get another keeper with the leftover cash, so trades come into it if Gawn does end up beating them by 15-20 points a game. That's the gamble you have to take with Sauce, and at least I'd be expecting to upgrade him

eaglesman

Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 01, 2020, 11:39:23 PM
Quote from: js19 on February 01, 2020, 11:09:02 PM
Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 01, 2020, 10:17:52 PM
For those considering Sauce...

What are you expecting him to average?

Or at least, what does he need to average at his price to be a worthwhile pick?

I just don't see him as a viable option, but would love to hear some reasoning.

For me it's ROB as the only alternative to Gawn.

(If I was forced to speculate, I'd go English).

For me it would need to be a combo deal

Example:
Gawn + cheap rook = 130 + 50 = 180
Sauce + Greenwood = 90 + 90 = 180

If I was to pick Greenwood I would expect a 90+ as a keeper, so a 90 from Sauce would be acceptable. He'd gain a bit of cash, and can upgrade to Gawn. Both examples require one upgrade
. Sauce won't make as much $$ as a decent rook, but has the bonus of playing in rd13, and can become Gawn for the bye. If these numbers hold up, there's not much lost (but not much gained either). If Sauce gets the #1 ruck role and goes 100+ it's a win.

Absolutely.

Definitely combinations.

But for Sauce to come off you need to have a belief he'll produce a 90 average; and that he'll play 22 games.

I see him averaging mid to high 80s, and giving up 2-3 games to Mumford.

But that answers my question. You're assigning him an average of 90, with rock solid job security.

If you don't take Sauce, the next best valued option - and lower risk option - is ROB (although I'm also considering English).

Believe me... I want Gawn to be fit and an obvious selection.

And... I would LOVE Sauce to be an obvious back-up lock.

But I just don't see the Sauce pick; and the ROB pick doesn't excite me in the least.

People aren’t picking sauce to play 22 games surely? I certainly won’t be. He will average 90 for sure and probably more and then upgrade him before or worst case scenario at his bye to Gawn if he healthy or the next best option that we have a sample size for.

FWIW I have ROB at the moment

Colley Dogs

#63
Quote from: eaglesman on February 02, 2020, 07:22:13 PM
Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 01, 2020, 11:39:23 PM
Quote from: js19 on February 01, 2020, 11:09:02 PM
Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 01, 2020, 10:17:52 PM
For those considering Sauce...

What are you expecting him to average?

Or at least, what does he need to average at his price to be a worthwhile pick?

I just don't see him as a viable option, but would love to hear some reasoning.

For me it's ROB as the only alternative to Gawn.

(If I was forced to speculate, I'd go English).

For me it would need to be a combo deal

Example:
Gawn + cheap rook = 130 + 50 = 180
Sauce + Greenwood = 90 + 90 = 180

If I was to pick Greenwood I would expect a 90+ as a keeper, so a 90 from Sauce would be acceptable. He'd gain a bit of cash, and can upgrade to Gawn. Both examples require one upgrade
. Sauce won't make as much $$ as a decent rook, but has the bonus of playing in rd13, and can become Gawn for the bye. If these numbers hold up, there's not much lost (but not much gained either). If Sauce gets the #1 ruck role and goes 100+ it's a win.

Absolutely.

Definitely combinations.

But for Sauce to come off you need to have a belief he'll produce a 90 average; and that he'll play 22 games.

I see him averaging mid to high 80s, and giving up 2-3 games to Mumford.

But that answers my question. You're assigning him an average of 90, with rock solid job security.

If you don't take Sauce, the next best valued option - and lower risk option - is ROB (although I'm also considering English).

Believe me... I want Gawn to be fit and an obvious selection.

And... I would LOVE Sauce to be an obvious back-up lock.

But I just don't see the Sauce pick; and the ROB pick doesn't excite me in the least.

People aren’t picking sauce to play 22 games surely? I certainly won’t be. He will average 90 for sure and probably more and then upgrade him before or worst case scenario at his bye to Gawn if he healthy or the next best option that we have a sample size for.

FWIW I have ROB at the moment

Is ROB a keeper for you?

Or is it a case of it doesn't matter who you start with... at some point in the season you'll have GG?

The lack of viable mid pricers means I'm running with a GnR set up, with more ultra prems and more premium priced rookies than usual. Currently, I have 12 keepers excluding ROB. If I'm upgrading ROB to Gawn I'll be spending 22-23 trades to complete my team.

If I run with ROB he needs to be a keeper. At most he'll be a luxury trade at the tail end of the season if I have good luck with injuries (or if his price crosses with Gawn's and I can do it in one move).

eaglesman

Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 03, 2020, 11:42:49 AM
Quote from: eaglesman on February 02, 2020, 07:22:13 PM
Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 01, 2020, 11:39:23 PM
Quote from: js19 on February 01, 2020, 11:09:02 PM
Quote from: Colley Dogs on February 01, 2020, 10:17:52 PM
For those considering Sauce...

What are you expecting him to average?

Or at least, what does he need to average at his price to be a worthwhile pick?

I just don't see him as a viable option, but would love to hear some reasoning.

For me it's ROB as the only alternative to Gawn.

(If I was forced to speculate, I'd go English).

For me it would need to be a combo deal

Example:
Gawn + cheap rook = 130 + 50 = 180
Sauce + Greenwood = 90 + 90 = 180

If I was to pick Greenwood I would expect a 90+ as a keeper, so a 90 from Sauce would be acceptable. He'd gain a bit of cash, and can upgrade to Gawn. Both examples require one upgrade
. Sauce won't make as much $$ as a decent rook, but has the bonus of playing in rd13, and can become Gawn for the bye. If these numbers hold up, there's not much lost (but not much gained either). If Sauce gets the #1 ruck role and goes 100+ it's a win.

Absolutely.

Definitely combinations.

But for Sauce to come off you need to have a belief he'll produce a 90 average; and that he'll play 22 games.

I see him averaging mid to high 80s, and giving up 2-3 games to Mumford.

But that answers my question. You're assigning him an average of 90, with rock solid job security.

If you don't take Sauce, the next best valued option - and lower risk option - is ROB (although I'm also considering English).

Believe me... I want Gawn to be fit and an obvious selection.

And... I would LOVE Sauce to be an obvious back-up lock.

But I just don't see the Sauce pick; and the ROB pick doesn't excite me in the least.

People aren’t picking sauce to play 22 games surely? I certainly won’t be. He will average 90 for sure and probably more and then upgrade him before or worst case scenario at his bye to Gawn if he healthy or the next best option that we have a sample size for.

FWIW I have ROB at the moment

Is ROB a keeper for you?

Or is it a case of it doesn't matter who you start with... at some point in the season you'll have GG?

The lack of viable mid pricers means I'm running with a GnR set up, with more ultra prems and more premium priced rookies than usual. Currently, I have 12 keepers excluding ROB. If I'm upgrading ROB to Gawn I'll be spending 22-23 trades to complete my team.

If I run with ROB he needs to be a keeper. At most he'll be a luxury trade at the tail end of the season if I have good luck with injuries (or if his price crosses with Gawn's and I can do it in one move).

Yes he would be a keeper for sure but like you say potentially a late luxury trade.

With that being said it’s looking like Gawn injury isn’t that bad and if that’s the case trying to fit in Gawn is the challenge.
I’m going to be making teams today including Rowell bonar hill Stephens young kpickett/weightman and potentially mckasey as I feel these blokes might all be required picks given difficulties rookies will have breaking into the sides for round 1 and then holding their place.

We are absolutely blessed to have mpickett rankine and max king this year otherwise the situation could have been really difficult

RaisyDaisy

“He’ll be back running around on Monday and possibly ready to play a game in three or four weeks time,”

Sticking with GG - not even bothering to look at alternative options for now

tommy10

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 03, 2020, 03:20:23 PM
“He’ll be back running around on Monday and possibly ready to play a game in three or four weeks time,”

Sticking with GG - not even bothering to look at alternative options for now
Same here, sticking with them unless they give me a reason not to!

frenzy

#67
Max missing just round 1 would cause carnage... :D

Demons opener is in Perth, vs WC. Don't take the chance Dees. ;)

IntegralX

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 03, 2020, 03:20:23 PM
“He’ll be back running around on Monday and possibly ready to play a game in three or four weeks time,”

Sticking with GG - not even bothering to look at alternative options for now

I'm the opposite; I was looking for a reason to NOT go GG and now I've been given one. That being said if Gawn plays preseason I'll likely bring him back in.

Mat0369


SilverLion

Will be watching Gawn closely in the Marsh series, gets through that alright I think we've still gotta pick him.

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: SilverLion on February 05, 2020, 03:25:00 PM
Will be watching Gawn closely in the Marsh series, gets through that alright I think we've still gotta pick him.

I hope he doesn't play in the Marsh series so people get scared off and don't start him

If he lines up Round 1, he's still the lock he's always been

frenzy

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 05, 2020, 05:38:17 PM
Quote from: SilverLion on February 05, 2020, 03:25:00 PM
Will be watching Gawn closely in the Marsh series, gets through that alright I think we've still gotta pick him.

I hope he doesn't play in the Marsh series so people get scared off and don't start him

If he lines up Round 1, he's still the lock he's always been

Currently 32% of teams, Grundy 66%. Will turn Max into a massive POD if he misses Rnd 1. And then watch the mad scramble, when people try to get him in.

jvalles69

Having a look at my team with Jacobs and there's a lot you can do elsewhere, will still be going with Gawn but if you could be 100% convinced that Sauce will be the #1 ruck and play all 22 games then I think he can be considered.  Why don't people think he will play 22?  Mumford is nowhere near it any more and then chased Sauce to fill this gap.  Can't see him averaging under 90 which is enough for a stepping stone to Gawn or whoever the #2 ruckman will be if not Gawn, it's just where he's locked into a full season or not.  No way they play both together.

LordSneeze

Quote from: jvalles69 on February 14, 2020, 12:25:08 PM
Having a look at my team with Jacobs and there's a lot you can do elsewhere, will still be going with Gawn but if you could be 100% convinced that Sauce will be the #1 ruck and play all 22 games then I think he can be considered.  Why don't people think he will play 22?  Mumford is nowhere near it any more and then chased Sauce to fill this gap.  Can't see him averaging under 90 which is enough for a stepping stone to Gawn or whoever the #2 ruckman will be if not Gawn, it's just where he's locked into a full season or not.  No way they play both together.
That's where the problem lies. If Sauce is dropped in R4 and Mumford comes in there you need to trade to avoid a 0 and there is very limited options for trades at the price point.

There is also no real good FWD DPP options that will allow cover unless you want to take a major risk.