Can anybody challenge the ruck GOATS?

[RaisyDaisy]

As someone who isn't starting either them. perhaps some outside unbias thoughts might help  :)

You can crunch the numbers all you like, but it simply comes down to this

Sauce is good for 22 games, and should average 85-90

NN is highly unlikely to play 22 games, but should average 95+ (His ceiling will simply come down to his TOG)

If you're going with NN, you'd want to make sure you have ruck cover, or are prepared to trade him as soon as he misses a game

If you're going with Sauce, you'd want to be confident that the money you save is getting you the same amount of points elsewhere to make up for the difference between him and Gawn

If I was forced to pick one, I'd go with Sauce, but I'm not wavering from GG unless one of them doesn't line up Round 1

[eaglesman]

As someone who isn't starting either them. perhaps some outside unbias thoughts might help  :)

You can crunch the numbers all you like, but it simply comes down to this

Sauce is good for 22 games, and should average 85-90

NN is highly unlikely to play 22 games, but should average 95+ (His ceiling will simply come down to his TOG)

If you're going with NN, you'd want to make sure you have ruck cover, or are prepared to trade him as soon as he misses a game

If you're going with Sauce, you'd want to be confident that the money you save is getting you the same amount of points elsewhere to make up for the difference between him and Gawn

If I was forced to pick one, I'd go with Sauce, but I'm not wavering from GG unless one of them doesn't line up Round 1

What are your thoughts on me going sauce with the back up of ceglar? Bonar replace by treloar.

[RaisyDaisy]

What are your thoughts on me going sauce with the back up of ceglar? Bonar replace by treloar.

Well, I don't think Sauce needs back-up. I see Sauce and Ceglar as two separate discussions

As said above, I can certainly see the appeal in Sauce, and I understand the logic behind selecting Ceglar too. This could certainly work - I don't think anyone can say for certainty that those two instead of Gawn will fail - probably just comes down to personal choice

As you know, most good coaches will end up starting pretty similar teams, it's how we trade (and how much luck we get) that really counts

I don't focus on the position - I think that's the wrong way to look at things. I try to look at the overall 22/30 man side Eg/ is there really any difference between someone who starts Gawn/Steven/Dev vs someone who starts Treloar/Sauce/Ceglar? I think most people let the position influence things too much, and not focus on the overall 22/30

[RoughRed]

If I was forced to pick one, I'd go with Sauce, but I'm not wavering from GG unless one of them doesn't line up Round 1

This is me!
I have a plan B (C, D, E, F) if one of G or G do not start week one but tbh the permutations for that  scenario are simple ... I am just adding another G ... Goldy

[AaronKirk]

If one of GG doesn't line up in R1 just pick the next best ruck which is the other G.

Rucks seem to be easy to figure out this year IMO.

[Colley Dogs]

If one of GG doesn't line up in R1 just pick the next best ruck which is the other G.

Rucks seem to be easy to figure out this year IMO.

GGG is my approach this season.

[dmac07]

If one of GG doesn't line up in R1 just pick the next best ruck which is the other G.

Rucks seem to be easy to figure out this year IMO.

If one doesnt line up round 1, but is due to be back early season, you have to go a cheapie I think. You cant pay 450-600k for Goldy, NN, Marshall, if you don't think they will average top 2. I'd be going Sauce to make a few dollars if Gawn doesnt line up, spending big on someone your going to want to trade out to Gawn just d9esnt make sense. Not unless you think another player can get within 5-10 points of Grundy/Gawn

[Colley Dogs]

If one of GG doesn't line up in R1 just pick the next best ruck which is the other G.

Rucks seem to be easy to figure out this year IMO.

If one doesnt line up round 1, but is due to be back early season, you have to go a cheapie I think. You cant pay 450-600k for Goldy, NN, Marshall, if you don't think they will average top 2. I'd be going Sauce to make a few dollars if Gawn doesnt line up, spending big on someone your going to want to trade out to Gawn just d9esnt make sense. Not unless you think another player can get within 5-10 points of Grundy/Gawn

I'm definitely going Goldstein if Gawn doesn't get named Round 1.

You're right in thinking about it in terms of making $, but don't forget to consider the value of the trade in the calculation; and also the money invested from not selecting Gawn.

If you select Sauce, and he does everything you hope - plays every game up to the byes, and averages 85-90 - he might appreciate to 470K - 530K... at which point you'll need to spend two trades to turn him into Gawn.

If you select Goldstein, and he does everything you hope - plays every game, and averages 110-115 - you can be selective about when you move him to Gawn, waiting for their prices to cross, or when they come close to any leftover cash you have in the bank, and do it in one trade.

What's a trade worth in dollars and points?
In my view: 1 trade = 150K = 30 points.

Every time you spend 150K, you do it with the expectation of adding 30 - 40 points to your overall score.

So:

Goldstein: 110 points
Sauce: 90 points

Now you need to add the points earned from the cash invested from not selecting Gawn, and deduct the points lost from the trades spent in getting Gawn back.

(This is a fun exercise btw, and not to be taken too seriously... we're desperate for the Marsh series to start so we can see real footballers running around the place upon which we can base our decisions)

Goldstein: [110 points (scoring average) + 17 points (88K  savings invested)] - 30 points (1 trade  to get Gawn back) = 97 points
Sauce     : [90 points  (scoring average) + 70 points (349K savings invested)] - 60 points (2 trades to get Gawn back) = 100 points

Conclusions:
- Sauce + 349K is 33 points better off than Goldstein + 88K before trading Gawn back.

Why I prefer Goldstein:
- Goldstein turns back into Gawn earlier than Sauce turns into Gawn (assuming you need Sauce to get up to the 520K mark)
- Sauce needs to play every game in the first half of the season, and consecutively (you'll need a contingency for the off-chance   
  Mumford gets a a hit out before the byes)
- Goldstein can be treated as a luxury trade. He may not be #2, but I'm confident he'll be #3, with a minimum 110K average
- I don't believe Sauce is going to average 90 (more mid- to high- 80s imo)

What I want:
- Gawn to play in the Marsh series so we can stop this silliness

It's getting near  :)

[eaglesman]

FWIW I’ll back ROB to average more than goldy

[Colley Dogs]

FWIW I’ll back ROB to average more than goldy

Because ROB rises, or because Goldy falls? Or a combination of both?

If you think ROB will average 105+, surely you have to take him over Sauce!

[eaglesman]

FWIW I’ll back ROB to average more than goldy

Because ROB rises, or because Goldy falls? Or a combination of both?

If you think ROB will average 105+, surely you have to take him over Sauce!

He will easily EASILY average 105+

[AaronKirk]

FWIW I’ll back ROB to average more than goldy

I'd like to know why you believe this is the case?

Goldy averaged 111 last year (128 after the bye) compared to ROB 95 last year (same avg after bye)

If I cherry pick the data further ROB's 2 big scores were against Richmond and Essendon who had Chol and McKernan in the respective games as No 1 rucks.

His next 2 highest scores were against Freo who in that match used Lobb as number 1 ruck and then Geelong who used Blicavs as much in the ruck as Stanley in that fixture.

The other 2 tons were against Carlton who used Phillips as number 1 ruck and the other v GWS (Mumford being completely cooked)

So none of his tons last year were against likely number 1 rucks in 2020.

I'm happy to be proven wrong but I think he is sucking a lot of people in and is a trap selection.

[RaisyDaisy]

Interesting insights AK

Even before that I'd have said Goldy is the clear #3. ROB has a bright future but it's probably a little premature to think he'll make the jump to elite status just yet

[eaglesman]

FWIW I’ll back ROB to average more than goldy

I'd like to know why you believe this is the case?

Goldy averaged 111 last year (128 after the bye) compared to ROB 95 last year (same avg after bye)

If I cherry pick the data further ROB's 2 big scores were against Richmond and Essendon who had Chol and McKernan in the respective games as No 1 rucks.

His next 2 highest scores were against Freo who in that match used Lobb as number 1 ruck and then Geelong who used Blicavs as much in the ruck as Stanley in that fixture.

The other 2 tons were against Carlton who used Phillips as number 1 ruck and the other v GWS (Mumford being completely cooked)

So none of his tons last year were against likely number 1 rucks in 2020.

I'm happy to be proven wrong but I think he is sucking a lot of people in and is a trap selection.

I was basing it more on gut feel rather than raw stats and a feeling goldy would decline due to age and ROB rise.

To be fair I got nothing to back up my argument and would say your argument is pretty strong haha.

To be honest it makes me more likely to go sauce than ROB now.

[jvalles69]

I'm very much considering ROB over Gawn now if and only if I can use the extra money to my benefit elsewhere.  I can only see progression ahead for ROB so I feel he is under priced whereas Gawn is fully priced and could be a bit under done even though it sounds like he'll be completely ready to go.  I think most ruckman peak around their mid 20's which ROB is, just concerned about his consistency.  Gawn is currently at R2, but he's not a 100% lock for me just yet.