Top 5 forwards

Started by meow meow, December 27, 2019, 03:49:00 PM

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RaisyDaisy

I've come to the conclusion that I just don't like the forward line premo's, so I've now decided to get DEF/MID/RUC sorted, and am going really light up forward

Dusty, Dev, Jones, Hill, Rookie, Rookie

Allows me to run GG in the ruck, 5 super premo mids with Rowell at M6 and 4 premo def with Roberton at D5

Whitfield could miss games, but more importantly I think that his average will drop with all their mids back in so he can be an upgrade target

The way I see it, with my defence, midfield and ruck all very solid, the first 5-6 trades of the season can be focused on the forward line - with 5-6 trades I should be able to milk a few rookies and turn both Jones and Hill into premo forwards. That leaves with me 24-25 trades, and only need 1-2 def prems, 3 mid prems and 2 fwd prems - certainly doable

Plus, it's something a little different - every year I take a similar approach and it works well with a high overall finish, and I could just do that again, but this will be fun trying something new, and I reckon it can work

shaker

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 15, 2020, 10:47:03 AM
I've come to the conclusion that I just don't like the forward line premo's, so I've now decided to get DEF/MID/RUC sorted, and am going really light up forward

Dusty, Dev, Jones, Hill, Rookie, Rookie

Allows me to run GG in the ruck, 5 super premo mids with Rowell at M6 and 4 premo def with Roberton at D5

Whitfield could miss games, but more importantly I think that his average will drop with all their mids back in so he can be an upgrade target

The way I see it, with my defence, midfield and ruck all very solid, the first 5-6 trades of the season can be focused on the forward line - with 5-6 trades I should be able to milk a few rookies and turn both Jones and Hill into premo forwards. That leaves with me 24-25 trades, and only need 1-2 def prems, 3 mid prems and 2 fwd prems - certainly doable

Plus, it's something a little different - every year I take a similar approach and it works well with a high overall finish, and I could just do that again, but this will be fun trying something new, and I reckon it can work
Which Jones ? Chayce or Harrison might be worth a try but until round 1 teams are announced it's all a bit of a guess for me it's the same every year see how much I have to spend filling rookie spots depending on who's named and then I can finalise the rest.

Grazz

Quote from: enzedder on February 15, 2020, 05:25:15 AM
Quote from: Grazz on February 15, 2020, 12:58:00 AM
Quote from: eaglesman on February 15, 2020, 12:22:23 AM
Is anyone else deliberately not bringing up someone else up forward? I have seen his name once in fan footy forums but just scrolled through every posted team and haven’t seen him selected?

I posted my team with jack Steven at f3 but I reckon there is someone else that’s a dead set lock for that spot in the 400k-500k range.

Fully expecting his name to be talked about soon so I won’t ruin the surprise.

Greenwood.  8)
In my team

Trying to get him in but unable to at the minute without changing the team to drastically.
Like RD i'm going with a cheaper option at F3 which i'm kinda forced to do at the moment.
I'm not really feeling this team right now so big changes could still happen yet.

GM

Chayce Jones and Townsend could well be good cheap options up forward.

eaglesman

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 15, 2020, 10:47:03 AM
I've come to the conclusion that I just don't like the forward line premo's, so I've now decided to get DEF/MID/RUC sorted, and am going really light up forward

Dusty, Dev, Jones, Hill, Rookie, Rookie

Allows me to run GG in the ruck, 5 super premo mids with Rowell at M6 and 4 premo def with Roberton at D5

Whitfield could miss games, but more importantly I think that his average will drop with all their mids back in so he can be an upgrade target

The way I see it, with my defence, midfield and ruck all very solid, the first 5-6 trades of the season can be focused on the forward line - with 5-6 trades I should be able to milk a few rookies and turn both Jones and Hill into premo forwards. That leaves with me 24-25 trades, and only need 1-2 def prems, 3 mid prems and 2 fwd prems - certainly doable

Plus, it's something a little different - every year I take a similar approach and it works well with a high overall finish, and I could just do that again, but this will be fun trying something new, and I reckon it can work

I guarantee you will not start Jones at f3. He will never be a SuperCoach option for the entirety of his career.

Mat0369

The Jones pick makes 0 sense. He is 270k so he is basically a mid price option.

Quote from: eaglesman on February 15, 2020, 12:22:23 AM
Is anyone else deliberately not bringing up someone else up forward? I have seen his name once in fan footy forums but just scrolled through every posted team and haven’t seen him selected?

I posted my team with jack Steven at f3 but I reckon there is someone else that’s a dead set lock for that spot in the 400k-500k range.

Fully expecting his name to be talked about soon so I won’t ruin the surprise.

Of the 400k-500k guys that have probably been looked at, these are my thoughts. I think you're probably referring to Ceglar or Hawkins but I'd pass on both.

Ebert - He is what he is, always starts strong and then flops in the back end of the year.

Ceglar - Could be the number 1 ruck, but I feel whenever he has been picked it has been to shoulder the ruck load. Averaged 70's for his career which is what he is priced at

Jack Martin - Spoken about all the time as a possible break out contender and longer at the Suns could see it happen, I still think he is a perennial cocktease and probably going to disappoint with us as well. The Betts factor could be the real difference to actually see him reach his potential. A lot of the Indigenous boys seem to get their best with Eddie around.

Jack Gunston - Rehab group so pass

Westhoff - The burn is still strong with this one

Petracca - See Jack Martin

Ryder - Scores best as the number 1 ruck and as a forward is meh. That is Marshall's role to lose so pass.

Robbie Gray - Age and lack of mid minutes will see him stay where he is or decline.

Mitch Wallis - Is he even best 22?

Gresham - Likely to keep improving, speculative pick at best.

Darling - Priced around where he should be based on recent averages.

Lynch - See Darling

Hawkins - 1 season with the ton, rest mid 80's at best.

Greenwood - Meh. Averaged mid 80's through his career and people forget that he isn't exactly young. Yeah he is young in terms of AFL career but he is going to be 28.

Dahl - Could see an increase in midfield minutes where he scores well but likely to stay forward. Pass

Parish - Pass

Dawson - Pass

De Goey - Hard Pass

Lambert - Probably at top price based on career average.

JZ - Meh, wait for the eventual stinker he puts up and grab him then if you're keen.

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: Mat0369 on February 16, 2020, 03:21:32 AM
The Jones pick makes 0 sense. He is 270k so he is basically a mid price option.

I disagree

I clearly outlined my plan and reasoning above as to why I am looking at him. He's a breakout candidate, and not only do I expect him to be  a lock in their 22, I expect him to spend most of his time in the guts, and considering that's exactly what he did in their intra yesterday I still like the pick

I think he can go 70+, so he will make cash, and be a quick stepping stone to a outright prem. I hate the fwd prem options, so starting Chase (who I think has a lot of upside) gives me the first 5-6 rounds to see what fwds look good, then I turn him into one of them

More than happy for the majority to hate the pick - be nice to have a least 1 point of difference to start with

Quote from: Mat0369 on February 16, 2020, 03:21:32 AM
Quote from: eaglesman on February 15, 2020, 12:22:23 AM
Is anyone else deliberately not bringing up someone else up forward? I have seen his name once in fan footy forums but just scrolled through every posted team and haven’t seen him selected?

I posted my team with jack Steven at f3 but I reckon there is someone else that’s a dead set lock for that spot in the 400k-500k range.

Fully expecting his name to be talked about soon so I won’t ruin the surprise.

Of the 400k-500k guys that have probably been looked at, these are my thoughts. I think you're probably referring to Ceglar or Hawkins but I'd pass on both.

He already acknowledged that he was talking about Greenwood

Greenwood was a mid 80s guy at Adelaide were he was the 5-6th mid in line, and didn't spend heaps of time there. He's now moved to a side where he will be inside the guts basically 100% of the time - 90+ is very attainable for him. His age is absolute irrelevant

I do however agree with you regarding every other 4-500k fwd you mentioned - I wouldn't start a single one of them

eaglesman

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 16, 2020, 10:26:39 AM
Quote from: Mat0369 on February 16, 2020, 03:21:32 AM
The Jones pick makes 0 sense. He is 270k so he is basically a mid price option.

I disagree

I clearly outlined my plan and reasoning above as to why I am looking at him. He's a breakout candidate, and not only do I expect him to be  a lock in their 22, I expect him to spend most of his time in the guts, and considering that's exactly what he did in their intra yesterday I still like the pick

I think he can go 70+, so he will make cash, and be a quick stepping stone to a outright prem. I hate the fwd prem options, so starting Chase (who I think has a lot of upside) gives me the first 5-6 rounds to see what fwds look good, then I turn him into one of them

More than happy for the majority to hate the pick - be nice to have a least 1 point of difference to start with

Quote from: Mat0369 on February 16, 2020, 03:21:32 AM
Quote from: eaglesman on February 15, 2020, 12:22:23 AM
Is anyone else deliberately not bringing up someone else up forward? I have seen his name once in fan footy forums but just scrolled through every posted team and haven’t seen him selected?

I posted my team with jack Steven at f3 but I reckon there is someone else that’s a dead set lock for that spot in the 400k-500k range.

Fully expecting his name to be talked about soon so I won’t ruin the surprise.

Of the 400k-500k guys that have probably been looked at, these are my thoughts. I think you're probably referring to Ceglar or Hawkins but I'd pass on both.

He already acknowledged that he was talking about Greenwood

Greenwood was a mid 80s guy at Adelaide were he was the 5-6th mid in line, and didn't spend heaps of time there. He's now moved to a side where he will be inside the guts basically 100% of the time - 90+ is very attainable for him. His age is absolute irrelevant

I do however agree with you regarding every other 4-500k fwd you mentioned - I wouldn't start a single one of them

No wasn’t greenwood

_wato

Chaddddddddddd

Locked in for me at F2

eaglesman

It is ceglar and he’s a lock (as long as he’s number 1 ruck) ... given his ruck cover as well he’s an absolute no brainer imo

_wato

Quote from: eaglesman on February 16, 2020, 03:10:59 PM
It is ceglar and he’s a lock (as long as he’s number 1 ruck) ... given his ruck cover as well he’s an absolute no brainer imo

Huge balls mate. It’ll work against a lot of teams but gotta think they’ll be way too tall against others. They won’t be dropping Big Boy before they drop Cegs. I still think McEvoy has value as a #1 ruck when they need it
But it is an interesting prospect.

eaglesman

Quote from: _wato on February 16, 2020, 03:24:51 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on February 16, 2020, 03:10:59 PM
It is ceglar and he’s a lock (as long as he’s number 1 ruck) ... given his ruck cover as well he’s an absolute no brainer imo

Huge balls mate. It’ll work against a lot of teams but gotta think they’ll be way too tall against others. They won’t be dropping Big Boy before they drop Cegs. I still think McEvoy has value as a #1 ruck when they need it
But it is an interesting prospect.

Yup it’s ballsy I agree but I will 100% be picking Ceglar if they line up with him number 1. Small gamble that could pay off massive if we get a small injury to one of the big guns

_wato

Quote from: eaglesman on February 16, 2020, 03:34:20 PM
Quote from: _wato on February 16, 2020, 03:24:51 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on February 16, 2020, 03:10:59 PM
It is ceglar and he’s a lock (as long as he’s number 1 ruck) ... given his ruck cover as well he’s an absolute no brainer imo

Huge balls mate. It’ll work against a lot of teams but gotta think they’ll be way too tall against others. They won’t be dropping Big Boy before they drop Cegs. I still think McEvoy has value as a #1 ruck when they need it
But it is an interesting prospect.

Yup it’s ballsy I agree but I will 100% be picking Ceglar if they line up with him number 1. Small gamble that could pay off massive if we get a small injury to one of the big guns

What do you see him averaging out of curiosity?

eaglesman

Quote from: _wato on February 16, 2020, 04:15:59 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on February 16, 2020, 03:34:20 PM
Quote from: _wato on February 16, 2020, 03:24:51 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on February 16, 2020, 03:10:59 PM
It is ceglar and he’s a lock (as long as he’s number 1 ruck) ... given his ruck cover as well he’s an absolute no brainer imo

Huge balls mate. It’ll work against a lot of teams but gotta think they’ll be way too tall against others. They won’t be dropping Big Boy before they drop Cegs. I still think McEvoy has value as a #1 ruck when they need it
But it is an interesting prospect.

Yup it’s ballsy I agree but I will 100% be picking Ceglar if they line up with him number 1. Small gamble that could pay off massive if we get a small injury to one of the big guns

What do you see him averaging out of curiosity?

Proviso number 1 ruck ... 90+ comfortably...  will be enough to justify his selection given this years crop of forwards and the ruck coverage he offers.

Mat0369

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 16, 2020, 10:26:39 AM
I disagree

I clearly outlined my plan and reasoning above as to why I am looking at him. He's a breakout candidate, and not only do I expect him to be  a lock in their 22, I expect him to spend most of his time in the guts, and considering that's exactly what he did in their intra yesterday I still like the pick

I think he can go 70+, so he will make cash, and be a quick stepping stone to a outright prem. I hate the fwd prem options, so starting Chase (who I think has a lot of upside) gives me the first 5-6 rounds to see what fwds look good, then I turn him into one of them

More than happy for the majority to hate the pick - be nice to have a least 1 point of difference to start with


The difference between Jones and a lot of second year guys that are generally worth starting is the price. Jones is 270k and that's a lot to fork out for a speculative pick. For every Oliver there is a Rayner/Dow that goes backwards from years 1 to 2. It's also a really awkward price because you need to keep the funds to be able to flip him to a TMac/Steven type if he doesn't pan out or hope that there is a really good rookie on the horizon to downgrade him to. At F3 that is just asking for trouble since you end up with a massive hole at the position. At F4 I get it a bit more, you can probably afford to take the risk and downgrade to a rookie.

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 16, 2020, 10:26:39 AM

He already acknowledged that he was talking about Greenwood

Greenwood was a mid 80s guy at Adelaide were he was the 5-6th mid in line, and didn't spend heaps of time there. He's now moved to a side where he will be inside the guts basically 100% of the time - 90+ is very attainable for him. His age is absolute irrelevant

I do however agree with you regarding every other 4-500k fwd you mentioned - I wouldn't start a single one of them


I don't know if he spends as much time in there as people think. I don't think he is a running machine and they do have a lot of big bodied inside mids already. I think between Rowell, Anderson, Greenwood, Bowes, Swallow, Miller and guys like Fiorini, Ellis, Weller, Rankine, Macpherson and Powell also getting a run you have a ton of mids to rotate.

Quote from: eaglesman on February 16, 2020, 03:10:59 PM
It is ceglar and he’s a lock (as long as he’s number 1 ruck) ... given his ruck cover as well he’s an absolute no brainer imo

He did have 3 decent scores towards the back end of the year with Big Boy playing down back but I still don't like it. You would have to hope the persist with McEvoy playing in defence or you spend 400k for a guy that ends up in the VFL. Patton will also be the forward/ruck for the Hawks come the season so they won't carry both anymore