WXV Round 16: Suns Shining

[Purple 77]

Normal lockout at Friday 7.50pm AEST :)

Round 16, AFL Round 18

Home Team	Away Team	Venue	Head-to-Head
New Delhi Tigers	Dublin Destroyers	Neutral, Perth Stadium, EurAsia	1  v  7
Seoul Magpies	Toronto Wolves	Seoul World Cup Stadium	3  v  5
Pacific Islanders	Beijing Thunder	BSP Stadium	6  v  2
Tokyo Samurai	New York Revolution	Tokyo Olympic Stadium	1  v  6
Berlin Brewers	Moscow Spetsnaz	Berlin Olympic Stadium, EurAsia, Europe	4  v  4
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	Cape Town Cobras	Maracana Stadium, AAP Alliance	1  v  3
London Royals	Cairo Sands	London Olympic Stadium	3  v  4
Mexico City Suns	PNL Reindeers	Fireball Stadium	6  v  1
Buenos Aires Armadillos	Christchurch Saints	Estadio de River, AAP Alliance	1  v  3

You could mount an argument that the Tigers have dropped off in the past month; have they peaked too early? Harsh, but the last 150+ was 5 rounds ago now. The Destroyers were one 120+ point swinging selection away from a match-winning performance against Beijing, as they slowly start to find some lost form. Danger game for New Delhi, but I'll back em.

Seoul's last two weeks have been absolutely phenomenal, winning by a combined 840+ points! All of a sudden, an unlikely finals spot has now started to become probable... but then you look at their final two matches, against the two best teams of the comp. The Wolves have now made the minor premiership a mathematical uncertainty, so really there is nothing left to play for... oh, except for World Idol! Both these teams are still in it, so there's that too! flower it, COME ON SEOUL!

The Islanders face a grim reality; they must beat either Beijing this week or New Delhi next week in order to make finals, and now without Michael Hurley. The Thunder need to keep winning to ensure a home qualifying final, as Cairo have more winnable games to come. Beijing for me.

The Samurai topped score last week! Thank you for mistiming that performance that I'm sure was aimed for me next week. In the past month, Tokyo has scored the 4th most points! With a 140+, 150+ and now 160+ to show for it, they are finally showing the form that I've always suspected they had. Next year is the year Samurai fans. New York also have their eyes firmly on next year, but I feel like they have one last upset left in them. Could be this week... but will back Samurai.

Yes, I'm sitting 7th on the points ladder, but boy, just you wait until I get some of my forwards back on the park - and Jack Steven if we're lucky. I'm gonna have to yet again carry a couple of stragglers, but I swear my starting 13 has never been in stronger form. The Spetsnaz scraped past New York last week, but that's all they needed to do. A win against Berlin this week and Cape Town next week will guarantee finals, but only 1 may do it too. Tense times, but I think I'll back myself in here.

The two teams outside the 8 go head-to-head in my MATCH OF THE ROUND! The Jags, despite an absolutely horrendous past two weeks, have the winning formula right in front of them; beat Cape Town and New York, and you'll probably make it. For the Cobras... beat Rio and Moscow, and you'll probably make it. These two teams are in near identical situations, with Doom awaiting the loser. I think the loser here is (knowing both teams want me to tip against them)... Cape Town.

The Royals tried their best to make a fool out of me in the thread title last week, but they finally posted that elusive win that brings them into 'improvement' for the first time since 2013. The Sands have held firm so far against the teams they should beat, but it would be a very Cairo result if they lose here. They only have a qualifying final on the line, after all. Come on Royals. But Cairo.

The Suns! They've been the 5th highest scoring team in the past month, with a formline that would even please the 2012-2016 fans! The young guns are starting to make the comp nervous for future seasons. PNL have their own too, but seem destined for a priority pick to help their 2019 off-season campaign. The Suns to make it 4 from the past 5!

The Dillos have had a VERY disappointing month, failing to seize the opportunities and build momentum for 2020. But worst of all, they flowered it against Cairo, and I find that very unhelpful. The Saints are coming off their best '2 weeks' of the season, scoring 129 and 121 that would make the Dillos nervous. A game of pride for both clubs means a genuine contest IMO. Gee I'm tempted to tip the Saints, but I think I'll go Buenos Aires.

[fanTCfool]

Toronto Wolves

Traditional

Alex Witherden, Wayne Milera, Connor Blakely, Kade Simpson
Jack Macrae (CC), James Harmes, Jacob Hopper, Brayden Fiorini
Matthew Kreuzer
Tim Kelly, Travis Boak (CC), Rowan Marshall, Tom Hawkins
Dion Prestia, Jack Redden (Rested)

Scott D. Thompson, Nick Larkey, Matthew Lobbe

[Toga]

Beijing Thunder:
D: Heath Shaw, Brandon Ellis, Darcy Byrne-Jones, Tom Jonas
M: Lachie Neale [VC], Tom Rockliff, Dayne Zorko, David Swallow
R: Brodie Grundy [C]
F: Kane Lambert, Luke Breust, Darcy Macpherson, Jy Simpkin
IC: Daniel Howe, James Aish

Emg: Taylor Walker, Nathan Broad, Mason Cox

[Koop]

Christchurch Saints

B: Phil Daivs (c), Robbie Tarrant (vc), Mark Blicavs, Conor McKenna
M: Sam Lloyd, Brett Deledio, James Rowbottom, Tom Scully
R: Sean Darcy
F: Jake Stringer, Sam B. Reid, Brent Daniels, Harry McKay
U: Josh Daicos, Ed Richards

E: Paddy Dow, Jackson Trengove, Zac Bailey

[Holz]

Grant Birchall, Steven May, Jeremy Howe, Colin O'Riordan
Brad Crouch (VC), Matt Crouch , Rory Sloane, Dustin Martin
Todd Goldstien (C)
Jack Reiwoldt, , Toby Greene, Justin Westhoff, Jack Gunston
Joel Selwood, Mark Occonor

Zak Butters (M), Jarrod Cameron (F), Mitch Lewis (F)

[Nige]

Karen

Tom Stewart (c), Nick Vlastuin, Jeremy McGovern, Alex Keath
David Zaharakis, Ricky Henderson, Hugh Greenwood, Hugh McCluggage
Shane Mumford
Mitch Robinson (vc), Shane Edwards, Lincoln McCarthy, Jason Castagna (rb)
Rory Lobb, Taylor Adams

Ollie Hanrahan, Andrew McGrath, Brad Scheer

Rest: Ben Brown

[PowerBug]

PB Tips
8/9 last week was pretty solid I felt, only my own team letting me down. As for this week, another slight change to my model. Will be adding in a random element to each selected score. This range will be from -25 to 25 if a neutral game, -50 to 25 if an away game, and -25 to 50 if a home game.

% chance of home team winning
New Delhi def Dublin (81.02%)
Seoul def by Toronto (32.69%)
Pacific def by Beijing (33.83%)
Tokyo def New York (82.84%)
Berlin def Moscow (72.90%)
Rio def Cape Town (78.82%)
London def by Cairo (28.10%)
Mexico City def PNL (85.73%)
Buenos Aires def Christchurch (89.92%)

[Holz]

New Delhi def Dublin (81.02%)

Geez id jump on Dublin at those odds ($5.20)

Dublin drops 150+ if i get the same result as last week with Gunston  Howes (Averages) Replacing Butters and JJK. Thats without HGA

[GoLions]

Jordan Lewis D1, will post rest later

[Purple 77]

WXV Team Selector for those interested

[Nige]

Karen

Tom Stewart (c), Nick Vlastuin, Jeremy McGovern, Alex Keath
David Zaharakis, Ricky Henderson, Hugh Greenwood, Hugh McCluggage
Shane Mumford
Mitch Robinson (vc), Shane Edwards, Lincoln McCarthy, Jason Castagna (rb)
Rory Lobb, Taylor Adams

Ollie Hanrahan, Andrew McGrath, Dawson Simpson

Rest: Ben Brown

[fanTCfool]

Toronto Wolves

Traditional

Alex Witherden, Wayne Milera, Connor Blakely, Kade Simpson
Jackson Macrae (CC), James Harmes, Jacob Hopper, Brayden Fiorini
Matthew Kreuzer
Tim Kelly, Travis Boak (CC), Rowan Marshall, Tom Hawkins
Dion Prestia, Jack Redden (Rested)

Resting: Gary Ablett Jnr

Robert Fox, Peter Wright, Andrew Phillips

[iZander]

D: Cale Hooker, Jayden Hunt, Riley Bonner, Jamie Macmillan
M: Luke Parker, Oliver Florent, Andrew Brayshaw, Trent Dumont
R: Reilly O'Brien
F: Caleb Daniel, Darcy Parish, Adam Cerra, Shaun Atley
U: Jesse Joyce, Jarrod Berry
E: Tom Clurey, Daniel Talia, Will Hayward

C: Luke Parker
VC: Berry

[PowerBug]

Rio de Janeiro Jaguars

Def: Daniel Rich, Hamish Hartlett, Brayden Maynard, Jeremy Finlayson.
Mid: Patrick Cripps (C), Elliot Yeo (VC), Tim Taranto, Jaeger O'Meara.
Ruck: Ivan Soldo.
Fwd: Jack Ziebell, Jeremy Cameron, Shaun McKernan, Sam J Reid (RB).
Int: Tarryn Thomas (Mid), Eric Hipwood (Fwd).

Emerg: Luke Brown (Def), Gary Rohan (Fwd), Aaron Francis (Def).

In: Sam J Reid, Jeremy Finlayson, Eric Hipwood.
Out: Josh Walker (AFL Omit), Levi Greenwood (Injured), Karl Amon (Rested).

The return of a couple of GWS boys hopefully put us in a good position for this must win match. Nank returning this week would've been a double whammy with Cape Town being his owner, and me owning the backup (as my only playing ruck this week).

[GoLions]

Jordan Lewis D1, will post rest later

Kate
Super Flood

Jordan Lewis, Daniel Andrews, Callum Mills, Jasper showertard, Griffin Logue
Mitch Duncan (VC), Ben Cunnington (C), Shaun Higgoat, Shaun Burgoyne
The Schlong
The Papsmear, ANB, Gryan
Touk Touk, Dylan Clarke

Chris Mayne, Stepladder Carlisle, Jack Fettucine