WXV Round 14: Brewers, Sands & the Top 4

[Purple 77]

Normal lockout week :) YES!

Round 14, AFL Round 16

Home Team	Away Team	Venue	Head-to-Head
Toronto Wolves	Tokyo Samurai	Rogers Centre	4  v  3
Seoul Magpies	Cape Town Cobras	Seoul World Cup Stadium	3  v  4
New Delhi Tigers	Buenos Aires Armadillos	Tata Stadium	4  v  4
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	Beijing Thunder	Maracana Stadium	3  v  1
Moscow Spetsnaz	Mexico City Suns	Neutral, Metricon Stadium	3  v  6
New York Revolution	London Royals	MetLife Stadium	6  v  1
PNL Reindeers	Dublin Destroyers	State de France, EurAsia, Europe	3  v  6
Christchurch Saints	Pacific Islanders	AMI Stadium, AAP Alliance, Africonia, Oceania Cup	1  v  3
Cairo Sands	Berlin Brewers	Borg El Arab Stadium	2  v  5

The Wolves have only been getting stronger, and are now so close to mathematical certainties for the minor premiership. Tokyo have shown their wares though recently, and if Lycett keeps this form up... this could actually happen. Toronto, but watch this one.

Seoul unfortunately couldn't go on with the Jaguars last week and now face a steep hill to finals. Danger certainly has the thighs for that gradient though, so don't give up on them yet. The Cobras however, have been immense in hanging into the 8, going 4-1 now with an OOP ruck with victories over Dublin & New Delhi! If it's meant to be, they'll win this one too. But, Seoul for me.

The Tigers finally had their first real stinker of the year, and certainly paid the price for it. Now amongst the pack from 2nd-to-6th, the Tigers are actually a couple of disasters away from missing finals! But that won't happen. The Dillos are still a shot at finals I reckon! Yes, they pretty much have to win all of their remaining games, but I reckon they have their final two games as a win, and if the miracle happens this week... then game on. But, Tigers for me.

Rio passed the test against Seoul last week, and are rewarded with a genuine shot at making the top 4 pre-finals. The 'Jing too flexed their muscles as they so often like to do, but despite boasting a healthy percentage, are at real danger of dropping out of the 4. If either team lose this one, at least two teams will get a game clear on them. Important match... I think Beijing.

Moscow are teetering on the eight, but face a real chance here to put some weight on the safe side. Whilst you wouldn't want to take them lightly, the Suns haven't had the same consistency as Moscow and as such, the Spetsnaz are expected to win here. But really, a right captaincy selection really goes a long way for the Suns and I'd back them against a lot of teams if they get it right. Moscow, but with an asterisk.

New York seem... a little tired. Whilst a lot of teams are not a chance against Toronto, New York just seemed resigned to that. But, I'm sure they'll be re-energised with an on-paper chance here against the Royals, who are looking for some reward for effort this year. What was that? The 138 point formula? I reckon the Royals get it this week.

The Reindeers have been doing it tough recently... wins are just... nice, you know? And we all need nice things to happen to us. It happened for Dublin last week when a win was finally forthcoming, and it could very well happen in two weeks straight! Whilst I'd like to see PNL win, it'll good to see another win in the bottom 4 regardless.

The Saints kept up with Dublin for a while there, but yep, they just don't... really have enough good players. The Islanders do though, and they'll need all of them to load up and get a % boost in a competitive finals race. It goes without saying, I hope Christchurch get up every week, but Islanders in this one.

It's the 2018-killing machines vs the eternally bitter & anxious in my MATCH OF THE ROUND! Cairo, 4th, is just 0.02% ahead of Berlin, 5th, in a clash that will be telling as to who makes the top 4 this year (maybe even 8 :-X). Berlin escaped with a win last week, whilst Cairo weren't as lucky with a similarly poor score. Actually, Cairo & Berlin are equals in the nervous department, and both pessimistic at viewing outlooks. Yeah, flower this game. I'll win tho (pessimistically).

[PowerBug]

PB Tips
So the model got 7/9 last week, Cape Town and Tokyo I believe it was that defied the odds. Changed the model up this week to favour the last 5 weeks more than the previous 8. Lets see how I go this week...

Round 14 Tips (% chance of home team winning)
Toronto def Tokyo (93.39%)
Seoul def Cape Town (75.4%)
New Delhi def Buenos Aires (83.48%)
Rio de Janeiro def by Beijing (42.20%)
Moscow def Mexico City (66.20%)
New York def by London (42.32%)
PNL def by Dublin (30.20%)
Christchurch def by Pacific (1.26%)
Cairo def by Berlin (45.16%)

[Toga]

BEIJING THUNDER:
D: Heath Shaw, Brandon Ellis, Darcy Byrne-Jones, Tom Jonas
M: Lachie Neale, Tom Rockliff [VC], Dayne Zorko, David Swallow
R: Brodie Grundy [C]
F: Kane Lambert, Darcy Macpherson, Luke Breust, Jy Simpkin
IC: Daniel Howe, James Aish

Emg: Taylor Walker, Mason Cox, Wil Powell

[iZander]

D: Cale Hooker, Jayden Hunt, Riley Bonner, Jamie Macmillan
M: Luke Parker, Oliver Florent, Andrew Brayshaw, Trent Dumont
R: Reilly O'Brien
F: Will Hayward, Darcy Parish, Adam Cerra, Shaun Atley
U: Daniel Talia, Ollie Wines
E: Jesse Joyce, Tom Clurey, Rayner

C: Luke Parker
VC: ROB

[fanTCfool]

Toronto Wolves

Traditional

Connor Blakely, Wayne Milera, Alex Witherden, Kade Simpson
Jack Macrae (CC), James Harmes, Jacob Hopper, Brayden Fiorini
Matthew Kreuzer
Tim Kelly, Travis Boak (CC), Rowan Marshall, Tom Hawkins
Dion Prestia, Jack Redden (Rested)

Mason Redman, Mabior Chol, Andrew Phillips

Resting: Gary Ablett Jnr.

[PowerBug]

Amount of times Purple has tipped Rio to win:
Rounds 1-5: 5 times
Rounds 6-14: 0 times (Daz did tip us in Rd 7 when he did the previews)

Our record:
Rounds 1-5: 3-2
Rounds 6-13: 5-3

[Ricochet]

New Delhi Tigers

DEF Lloyd (C), Hurn, Houli, Savage
MID  Pendles (VC), Sidebottom, Brayshaw, Langdon
RUCK SMartin
FWD Darling, Dahlhaus, JMartin, Gray
UTIL Hannebery, Dawson

EMER Sier, STaylor, Archie Smith

[Holz]

Sam May, Colin Oriordan, Mark Occonor, Sam Durdin
Dustin Martin, Rory Sloane (C), Joel Selwood, Matt Crouch
Todd Goldstein (VC)
Tom McDonald, Toby Greene, Jack Gunston, Josh J Kennedy
Brad Crouch,  Zak Butters

Mitch Lewis (F), Jarrod Cameron (F), Nathan Brown (D)

[PowerBug]

The Untippable Jaguars (Flood)

Def: Daniel Rich, Hamish Hartlett, Brayden Maynard, Jeremy Finlayson (RB), Luke Brown.
Mid: Elliot Yeo (C), Jaeger O'Meara, Tim Taranto (VC), Karl Amon.
Ruck: Ivan Soldo.
Fwd: Jack Ziebell, Jeremy Cameron, Shaun McKernan.
Int: Sam J Reid (Def/Fwd), Tarryn Thomas (Mid).

Emerg: Aaron Francis (Def), Zac Clarke (Ruck), James Frawley (Def).

In: Jeremy Finlayson, Karl Amon, Shaun McKernan.
Out: Levi Greenwood, Eric Hipwood (Omit), Callum Sinclair (Shoulder), Jordan Gallucci (Rested).

[GoLions]

Amount of times Purple has tipped Rio to win:
Rounds 1-5: 5 times
Rounds 6-14: 0 times (Daz did tip us in Rd 7 when he did the previews)

Our record:
Rounds 1-5: 3-2
Rounds 6-13: 5-3

I reckon purps has tipped us like twice all year aha

[PowerBug]

Amount of times Purple has tipped Rio to win:
Rounds 1-5: 5 times
Rounds 6-14: 0 times (Daz did tip us in Rd 7 when he did the previews)

Our record:
Rounds 1-5: 3-2
Rounds 6-13: 5-3

I reckon purps has tipped us like twice all year aha

He doesn't rate us :(

[Nige]

Karen

Tom Stewart, Jeremy McGovern, Nick Vlastuin, Alex Keath
Ricky Henderson (c), David Zaharakis, Hugh McCluggage (vc), Hugh Greenwood
Shane Mumford
Mitch Robinson, Shane Edwards, Ben Brown, Lincoln McCarthy
Corey Ellis, Rory Lobb

Ollie Hanrahan, Daniel McKenzie, Jason Castagna

Rest: Andrew McGrath

[Koop]

Christchurch 'The 1.26%'ers' Saints

D: Phil Davis (vc), Mark Blicavs (c), Robbie Tarrant, Conor McKenna
M: Sam Lloyd, Brett Deledio, Tom Scully, James Rowbottom
R: Sean Darcy
F: Jake Stringer, Sam B Reid, Josh Daicos, Brennan Cox         
U: Brayden Preuss, Jack Henry

E: Easton Wood, Paddy Dow, Zac Bailey

[upthemaidens]

      Pacific Islanders 

D: Rory Laird, Michael Hurley, Cam Guthrie, Liam Duggan (RB)
M: Marcus Bontempelli (C), Andrew Gaff (VC), Jarryd Lyons, Adam Tomlinson
R: Jarrod Witts
F: Josh Jenkins, Harrison Himmelberg, Sam Day, Steven Motlop
Int: Rhys Stanley, Aliir Aliir

E: Paul Ahern, Bailey Williams, Mitch McGovern

Resting: Matt Suckling

[Jukes]

D: J. Crisp, R. Burton, J. Kelly, M. Scharenberg
M: S. Coniglio (cc), A. Treloar (cc), D. Heppell, G. Hewett
R: P. Lipinski (oop)
F: J. De Goey, B. Acres, C. Rozee, S. Petrevski-Seton
U: J. Sinclair, L. Casboult

Emg: D. Astbury, C. Brown, C. Masten