Upgrade targets

Started by _wato, April 08, 2019, 12:20:08 PM

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RaisyDaisy

Quote from: Bully on April 16, 2019, 10:46:31 AM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 16, 2019, 09:57:49 AM
Quote from: Bully on April 15, 2019, 11:04:55 PM
Quote from: no eye deer on April 15, 2019, 10:25:38 PM
Quote from: Bully on April 15, 2019, 10:04:40 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 15, 2019, 09:10:32 PM
Quote from: _wato on April 15, 2019, 08:43:20 PM
Probably a bit late to be doing structural changes LH as Constable probably only has another 2/3 weeks before you ship him on assuming he hits around 350k.

My big question is can Buddy turn it around. 450k so can probably get him cheaper but also wanna take advantage of getting him in early. Would give me Danger Heeney Buddy Worp Greene

Obviously hasn’t looked his best but he’s definitely not past it like some people mention. Averaged 100 last year.

He's not "passed it" as a player but he might be as an SC option - hasn't shown a thing to suggest that he will all of a sudden be a great option this year

55. 77. 61, 80

Wow, that's just horrible and you'd be a brave man to bring him in off that

Buddy only scored 8 tons last year, but when he does score he pumps out the biggies - 178, 175, 161.

Trick is to get him when he's just about to kick a bag, easier said than done but I suppose if you buy low then you get the benefit of a big cash advance down the track. He's definitely on my radar but I would want him at 400k I think.

Impossible to entertain, unless going for overall.

It's bold & could come crashing down but it could also make you a quick 150k if you get the timing right, not to mention the bumper scores. Don't think I'd do it myself, reckon it's more of a late season play, particularly if you are looping.

What's making 150k or any cash go to do with it? Surely you'd need to pick him as a keeper? You'll end up burning through all your trades otherwise - can't keep flipping "prems' like this with limited trades

There's many ways to skin a cat Raisy, trading Fyfe for example was the smart play. The irony is that in two weeks Libba will be exceptionally close to Fyfe's value. Get where I'm coming from?

If Buddy bottoms out at 400k, then clocks in a couple of biggies & hits 550k I'd then be looking at what fallen prems could replace him. Tim Kelly is looking like hitting 450k, he's a bit more consistent too, that would be a trade I would entertain, rather than the stereotypical rookie cull.

I understand what you're saying, but at the same time we want to be building to a team of 22 prems, and we all know that just culling rookies and dealing with injuries often goes close to requiring the full 30 trades, so I'm not sure flipping prems like that is sustainable and something that can continually done

I see the merit in what you're saying, but the outlay is so much more - you can bring in a rookie for 120k or whatever and they can make 100k+ where as what you're suggesting with Buddy requires a much larger outlay of 400k+ and to be honest, the way he is going there is nothing to suggest he will bang out monster scores that will generate more than a rookie in terms of cash gain. I just think if you're spending that much on a forward, then it has to be with the intent of them being a keeper and Top 6 forward in your side, otherwise you could find yourself short on trades in the latter part of the season if you do too many of these types of trades that will likely fail

Bully

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 16, 2019, 11:01:41 AM
Quote from: Bully on April 16, 2019, 10:46:31 AM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 16, 2019, 09:57:49 AM
Quote from: Bully on April 15, 2019, 11:04:55 PM
Quote from: no eye deer on April 15, 2019, 10:25:38 PM
Quote from: Bully on April 15, 2019, 10:04:40 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 15, 2019, 09:10:32 PM
Quote from: _wato on April 15, 2019, 08:43:20 PM
Probably a bit late to be doing structural changes LH as Constable probably only has another 2/3 weeks before you ship him on assuming he hits around 350k.

My big question is can Buddy turn it around. 450k so can probably get him cheaper but also wanna take advantage of getting him in early. Would give me Danger Heeney Buddy Worp Greene

Obviously hasn’t looked his best but he’s definitely not past it like some people mention. Averaged 100 last year.

He's not "passed it" as a player but he might be as an SC option - hasn't shown a thing to suggest that he will all of a sudden be a great option this year

55. 77. 61, 80

Wow, that's just horrible and you'd be a brave man to bring him in off that

Buddy only scored 8 tons last year, but when he does score he pumps out the biggies - 178, 175, 161.

Trick is to get him when he's just about to kick a bag, easier said than done but I suppose if you buy low then you get the benefit of a big cash advance down the track. He's definitely on my radar but I would want him at 400k I think.

Impossible to entertain, unless going for overall.

It's bold & could come crashing down but it could also make you a quick 150k if you get the timing right, not to mention the bumper scores. Don't think I'd do it myself, reckon it's more of a late season play, particularly if you are looping.

What's making 150k or any cash go to do with it? Surely you'd need to pick him as a keeper? You'll end up burning through all your trades otherwise - can't keep flipping "prems' like this with limited trades

There's many ways to skin a cat Raisy, trading Fyfe for example was the smart play. The irony is that in two weeks Libba will be exceptionally close to Fyfe's value. Get where I'm coming from?

If Buddy bottoms out at 400k, then clocks in a couple of biggies & hits 550k I'd then be looking at what fallen prems could replace him. Tim Kelly is looking like hitting 450k, he's a bit more consistent too, that would be a trade I would entertain, rather than the stereotypical rookie cull.

I understand what you're saying, but at the same time we want to be building to a team of 22 prems, and we all know that just culling rookies and dealing with injuries often goes close to requiring the full 30 trades, so I'm not sure flipping prems like that is sustainable and something that can continually done

I see the merit in what you're saying, but the outlay is so much more - you can bring in a rookie for 120k or whatever and they can make 100k+ where as what you're suggesting with Buddy requires a much larger outlay of 400k+ and to be honest, the way he is going there is nothing to suggest he will bang out monster scores that will generate more than a rookie in terms of cash gain. I just think if you're spending that much on a forward, then it has to be with the intent of them being a keeper and Top 6 forward in your side, otherwise you could find yourself short on trades in the latter part of the season if you do too many of these types of trades that will likely fail

Think you're taking a very narrow perspective, rookies can be risky too, there's issues such as job security, earnings potential, availability. If all my rookies still had low BEs and the prospects available had the above question marks I'd absolutely look at a Buddy to fallen prem type trade.

Locinator

I've traded in Buddy this week.

The reason I've got him in is you'd be a mad man if you started the season betting against him to go below 90 right? Lowest average in the last 13 seasons is 87. Only has been below a 90 average one other time in those 13 years.

From here, to get an season average of 90, he will go 96.2 if he plays 18 games this season or 94.8 if he plays 22 games. If you could buy a 450k forward at the start of the season that would average 95 you wouldn't blink an eye. And a 90 average is probably the conservative case given the last 3 years he has gone 94.5, 98 and 100.

There's risk involved of course. Others might get him cheaper, he usually gets injured/suspended etc etc. But given how bleak the forward rookies and with Setters missing the next 2, I think Buddy is a very solid option. Means I can slide Drew into F6 and make up ground overall when others are playing an extra rookie or two in the forwards

Bully

This really sucks, can't afford Boak so I'll be forced to grab a cheaper forward. Thinking Tim Kelly even though his BE is 144 & is due to hit 450k, Buddy still on the expensive side for a roller coaster.

RaisyDaisy

I honestly don't understand how anyone is actually even upgrading right now?

I know I can't

I assume there's been corrective/sideways trades that have netted some cash?

I'm at least another week or two away before I can actually bring in an upgrade target

js19

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 17, 2019, 11:05:13 AM
I honestly don't understand how anyone is actually even upgrading right now?

I know I can't

I assume there's been corrective/sideways trades that have netted some cash?

I'm at least another week or two away before I can actually bring in an upgrade target

Getting to up/down time for me. Can get Heeney for Constable and Rozee, but too much money to be made still. Getting Whitfield for Sheed instead

Bully

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 17, 2019, 11:05:13 AM
I honestly don't understand how anyone is actually even upgrading right now?

I know I can't

I assume there's been corrective/sideways trades that have netted some cash?

I'm at least another week or two away before I can actually bring in an upgrade target

Trading Fyfe to Libba has given me some residual cash, looking like a masterstroke now.

tommy10

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 17, 2019, 11:05:13 AM
I honestly don't understand how anyone is actually even upgrading right now?

I know I can't

I assume there's been corrective/sideways trades that have netted some cash?

I'm at least another week or two away before I can actually bring in an upgrade target
Some people did Fyfe to Libba or even Dusty to Libba to generate the cash. I can't upgrade a rookie either, but that will most likely be next week.

LaHug

Double downgrades this week means Tim Kelly next week (and holding Greene still :o )

js19

For us without Neale, $685k next week, but a BE around 180 means he'll hopefully drop a little. Not massive, but $650 in a couple of weeks, even with some reasonably big scores, is better news than the $710k+ we were looking at...

Mat0369

Quote from: js19 on April 19, 2019, 12:23:21 AM
For us without Neale, $685k next week, but a BE around 180 means he'll hopefully drop a little. Not massive, but $650 in a couple of weeks, even with some reasonably big scores, is better news than the $710k+ we were looking at...

He will have Bowes go to him next week. GC did the same thing with Cripps and he kept him quiet for a quarter before Cripps basically had 3 consecutive 50 point quarters to charge back. Hewett the week after as well. Should hopefully mean a couple of poor scores in a row and he is obtainable if you don't have him.

I mentioned this earlier though, with all the huge scores already passing, you could be chasing points by bringing him in at that point. It's likely Neale comes back to the pack and you can find a cheaper premium that will have a big 2nd half to the year.

Bully

Fyfe still with a large BE next week, should hit 550k, definitely the smart play to offload.

RaisyDaisy

Very nice that all of Neale, Boak and Whitfield went under 100 this week

sammy123

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 20, 2019, 04:37:41 PM
Very nice that all of Neale, Boak and Whitfield went under 100 this week

This except fyfe for me. Hope to pick them up soon at a good price

justaverage

Quote from: sammy123 on April 20, 2019, 10:21:20 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 20, 2019, 04:37:41 PM
Very nice that all of Neale, Boak and Whitfield went under 100 this week

This except fyfe for me. Hope to pick them up soon at a good price

My thoughts are that while everyone is scrambling to get these 3 in there might be an opportunity to pick up some PODs that will score the same if not better for rest of season, looking at the likes of Zerret, Stewart, Walters, Buddy