Toby Greene

Started by LaHug, April 03, 2019, 09:27:13 AM

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RaisyDaisy

Rowan Marshall is about 15k cheaper than Greene, and has gone 114 and 111 in his first two games of the year as Saints sole ruck

Certainly tempting, and will make enough cash to be a stepping stone as worse case scenario, but it's just the possibility of having to use 2 trades (1 to get him in and 1 to upgrade him later on) which is probably the turn off

If he held down the ruck role all year though it could be a huge win

Probably won't do it, but it's worth considering

Mat0369

A lot of people got a leg up years ago when they grabbed Stef Martin in the same situation. If I had Greene I would probably do it. If you were to downgrade Greene to a rookie you would have to trade that rookie at some point anyway. If Marshall can pump out a couple more tons and shoot up 100k it's a win and makes it easier to grab the more expensive forwards when it comes time to make that move.

Bully

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 10, 2019, 10:30:38 PM
Rowan Marshall is about 15k cheaper than Greene, and has gone 114 and 111 in his first two games of the year as Saints sole ruck

Certainly tempting, and will make enough cash to be a stepping stone as worse case scenario, but it's just the possibility of having to use 2 trades (1 to get him in and 1 to upgrade him later on) which is probably the turn off

If he held down the ruck role all year though it could be a huge win

Probably won't do it, but it's worth considering

Could make 100k so not unthinkable.

js19

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 10, 2019, 10:30:38 PM
Rowan Marshall is about 15k cheaper than Greene, and has gone 114 and 111 in his first two games of the year as Saints sole ruck

Certainly tempting, and will make enough cash to be a stepping stone as worse case scenario, but it's just the possibility of having to use 2 trades (1 to get him in and 1 to upgrade him later on) which is probably the turn off

If he held down the ruck role all year though it could be a huge win

Probably won't do it, but it's worth considering

Have considered him. A keeper at that price would be a boost, but it smells of Admiral Ackbar

Bully

How long will Marshall be sole ruck?

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: Bully on April 10, 2019, 10:52:15 PM
How long will Marshall be sole ruck?

Nobody knows

Pierce isn't up to it, but Longer did well in the VFL on the weekend apparently

I'm just wondering if I should make the move mostly because I'm doing alright with overall rank, so deciding if I should go for it and try to give overall a good shake

The reason I am hesitant on doing it, is because next week a lot of rookies will be worth a lot more, so if Greene is still missing then I could do something like Scott to Stack and Greene to premo forward, and that might be the better play long term

Bully

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 10, 2019, 11:00:22 PM
Quote from: Bully on April 10, 2019, 10:52:15 PM
How long will Marshall be sole ruck?

Nobody knows

Pierce isn't up to it, but Longer did well in the VFL on the weekend apparently

I'm just wondering if I should make the move mostly because I'm doing alright with overall rank, so deciding if I should go for it and try to give overall a good shake

The reason I am hesitant on doing it, is because next week a lot of rookies will be worth a lot more, so if Greene is still missing then I could do something like Scott to Stack and Greene to premo forward, and that might be the better play long term

Tough one but my ears always prick up when I hear the words 'sole ruck'. Might be worth a stab if Longer doesn't play this week, Marshall due to make 50k as a worst case scenario. Think I'm keen on this one.

Mat0369

-24 BE for Marshall and averaging 112. He will make cash. If he averages 90 he is probably a keeper anyway. If you were to downgrade to McCarthy he has a BE of 5. Miers is probably the best option if you're looking at a rookie. He has the same BE as Rozee and being cheaper you would expect him to generate a bit more cash.

Bully

Quote from: Mat0369 on April 10, 2019, 11:10:50 PM
-24 BE for Marshall and averaging 112. He will make cash. If he averages 90 he is probably a keeper anyway. If you were to downgrade to McCarthy he has a BE of 5. Miers is probably the best option if you're looking at a rookie. He has the same BE as Rozee and being cheaper you would expect him to generate a bit more cash.

I reckon with the guaranteed cash, the quite significant upside & the fact he has under 1% ownership makes this a potential winner. Another ton & he becomes hard to ignore.

Mat0369

Another ton and he has priced himself out of being worth grabbing at that point. The risk starts to outweigh the reward. At least if you get on before the initial price rise you get the cash if he crashes and burns. Jumping on after another ton and watching him score 50 and go out will kill you. It's now or not at all.

RaisyDaisy

2 game sample size is hard to go off, but his stats in those 2 games are very impressive

8 and 6 tackles from a mobile ruck is very appealing, 15 and 16 touches too

Was only up against Belly and Darcy though - Big Boy will make him earn it this week

I'm tempted

_wato

A lot of chatter that Longer will come in to help Marshall ruck against Big Boy and Cegs. And then the week after, Saints have Gawn and Preuss. No way he rucks alone. Go another week ahead and it's Ryder and Lycett. Hmm

Not too keen myself, was interested early on though.

Re Toby, Giants have 5 of their next 7 in West Sydney (one in Sydney) > (Freo, Swans, Saints, Hawks, Blues, Melbourne, GC the draw)
It's a sweet sweet draw. And they've had a tough draw to here, so Pahka has done enough to cover for him so really I haven't felt like I've lost much until the week just gone.

I wanna hold because I know if Toby comes back he could go 95+ in that period and surely he's super super close to returning. Held him this far, why not wait another week.

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: _wato on April 10, 2019, 11:25:25 PM
A lot of chatter that Longer will come in to help Marshall ruck against Big Boy and Cegs. And then the week after, Saints have Gawn and Preuss. No way he rucks alone. Go another week ahead and it's Ryder and Lycett. Hmm

Not too keen myself, was interested early on though.

Re Toby, Giants have 5 of their next 7 in West Sydney (one in Sydney) > (Freo, Swans, Saints, Hawks, Blues, Melbourne, GC the draw)
It's a sweet sweet draw. And they've had a tough draw to here, so Pahka has done enough to cover for him so really I haven't felt like I've lost much until the week just gone.

I wanna hold because I know if Toby comes back he could go 95+ in that period and surely he's super super close to returning. Held him this far, why not wait another week.

Good points, and basically the flipside of it and what I've been tossing up. Pro's and con's to both sides, no clear answer

Just had a look, and Marshall played 1 JLT game too - scored 112, sheesh


Bully

I reckon this is a worthy punt, even if he bombs at 430k he's done his job, can just move on. And if Greene makes a compelling comeback you can always buy back with the proceeds.

If Longer doesn't play this week I'll pick Marshall & then revisit the Greene situation before he hits the bubble.

RaisyDaisy

Here's a scenario

We hold Greene, and in a few weeks we can cull 2 fwd rookies, but it probably won't be enough to get a prem (Assuming Drew to rookie and Parker to prem - might only give 400-450k to spend) so it requires two trades, and still might not be enough

We trade Greene to Marshall now (1 trade) and then Greene won't increase in price for a few more weeks anyway, and if he comes out with another 80-90 he won't go up much, so the 2 rookie cull will in fact give enough money to bring Greene back in 3 weeks time (that's if he even looks like being a good pick)

When you factor in that it might take 3 trades to get a true prem in with the first scenario, both scenarios end up requiring 3 trades but by doing it now we get Marshall at a much cheaper price, and avoid having to field a rookie in the meantime too which should also add more points