LaHug's Captains 2019 - Round 3

[LaHug]

Captains for Cancer Council.

https://myownway.everydayhero.com/au/will-huggett-s-2018-fundraising

Please pledge funds to help fight cancer! Examples of ways you can help:
1.   Pledge an amount (e.g. $5) for every time LaHug nails the top captain of the round.
2.   Pledge an amount (e.g. $5) for every time LaHug's POD cracks the 120 mark.
3.   Pledge an amount (e.g. $5) for every time LaHug gets egg on his face and his number 1 scores under 100.
4.   Make a once off donation.

Did you know that this is the 9th year I've done this? I'll continue to help with a smile and free of charge but, if you want to thank me, please donate to my charity efforts! Each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week and a speicial POD choice.

We have a partial lockout this week for the Adelaide vs. Geelong game which means we can use the CAPTAINS LOOPHOLE!

How it works:

1.   Select a player from the Crows or Cats as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in another game in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores really well, sub a non-playing player onto the field and set them as captain.
4.   Make sure you have an emergency in the position of your non-playing captain!

Note: This has risks if there are any late withdrawals as you won't have cover.

The facts & thoughts:

Rory Sloane
Last 3: 110, 144 (127 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 111, 76, 134 (107 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 144, 93, 106 (114 avg)

Sloane loves to play the Cats and has a very handy ceiling. Despite a huge victory last week, the Cats still let Oliver, Brayshaw, and Viney score 130, 121, and 115. Should be good for Sloane and the Crows mids. Prediction - 125

Matt Crouch
Last 3: 101, 132 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 94, 122, 110 (109 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 132, 136, 134 (134 avg)

Less prolific than Sloane so far but Crouch is another good VC option. A free hit for a guy that's gone 132, 136, 134 in his last three at home? Yes please. Prediction - 125

Patrick Dangerfield
Last 3: 134, 103 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 151, 121, 112 (128 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 151, 109, 121 (127 avg)

Enter Dangerfield. He loves playing his old side and scored a massive 151 against them in Adelaide last year. You've gotta back him in on those numbers. Prediction - 130

Patrick Cripps
Last 3: 116, 101 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 57, 117, 140 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Docklands: 120, 104, 118 (114 avg)

If your VC flops, Cripps feels safe for a ton each week. Ceiling is good but rare and probably won't come out against the Swans. Prediction - 105

Jake Lloyd
Last 3: 127, 126 (127 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 88, 77, 104 (90 avg)
Last 3 at Docklands: 126, 94, 100 (107 avg)

You might as well pencil in a 120+ every week until Horse Longmire realises that setting up every attack from defence is a shocking strategy for modern footy. Lloyd loves his role and his owners do too. Prediction - 125

Stephen Coniglio
Last 3: 50, 161 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 111, 90, 107 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 161, 94, 98 (118 avg)

I was wrong last week. I was sure that the Eagles would prefer to tag the damaging Whitfield, the same way they tagged Sidebottom in last year's Grand Final, so I felt Coniglio was safe. Fortunately, the Tigers don't tag and look very soft right now. Expect him to bounce back. Prediction - 110

Lachie Neale
Last 3: 146, 91 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 92, 100, 97 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 91, 108, 52 (84 avg)

Neale was great last week and will get 40+ touches multiple times this year. I wouldn't be picking him this week though with mediocre history against Port, a team that kept Melbourne's mids very quiet just two weeks ago. Prediction - 100

Tom Rockliff
Last 3: 115, 166 (141 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 78 (78 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 77, 123, 93 (98 avg)

The 166 was fantastic and the 115 looked good too. That said, the 115 would have been another 160+ had Carlton not thrown a tag at Rocky in the second half. He scored 36 across two quarters and is every chance to get some attention from his old side if they want to curb his influence. Too much risk. Prediction - 95

Adam Treloar
Last 3: 152, 125 (139 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 115, 61, 114 (97 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 152, 125, 115 (131 avg)

I'd love to say that Hutchings will definitely go to Sidebottom this week but I think I have to keep it at probably... Assuming he doesn't, Treloar should be good again here. Prediction - 120

Jack Macrae
Last 3: 124, 107 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 151, 93, 95 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Docklands: 107, 124, 118 (116 avg)

Macrae had a huge 151 against the Suns last year and is always good for a ton at Docklands. Lock him in for a safe floor and a great ceiling. Prediction - 125

Nat Fyfe
Last 3: 119, 103 (111 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 106, 89, 99 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Perth: 103, 57, 36 (65 avg)

Fyfe has been good this year without setting the world on fire. Assuming he'll be good again this week as he leads from the front. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S POD!

Max Gawn
Last 3: 113, 68 (91 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 135, 61, 146 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 68, 104, 92 (88 avg)

Just the fact that Max burned so many people in Round 1 makes him a POD at this point in the season. He's been very good against the Bombers in the past and they're not looking fantastic right now. Potential - 140

The verdict:
1.   Patrick Dangerfield (130)
2.   Matt Crouch (125)
3.   Jake Lloyd (125)
4.   Jack Macrae (125)
5.   Rory Sloane (125)

[Football Factory]

RDT - Going to Loop Danger, maybe Brayshaw captain if Danger flops

AF - Danger Loophole, maybe Rocky if Danger flops

[Chelskiman]

Danger into Macrae.  Anything above 120 I'll be taking from Danger, even though Macrae can go huge.

[Ricochet]

AF - BCrouch into Macrae
RDT - Danger into Macrae
SC - Danger into Macrae

[GoLions]

Considering Lloyd vc in DT, Macrae locked as c

[LaHug]

Considering Lloyd vc in DT, Macrae locked as c

It's a good consideration. Danger has the higher ceiling but you'll get a good leg up if both he and Macrae flop with Lloyd nearly certain to get 120+

[Football Factory]

Oh .. Schlenflog was my emergency locked onto the bench in DT  ;D   :-[

No loophole

[LaHug]

Oh .. Schlenflog was my emergency locked onto the bench in DT  ;D   :-[

No loophole

I've got the same problem with Fort in DT... but I can loophole using Hore if I'm happy to take Clark's score over Scrimshaw... thoughts?

[Rusty00]

Oh .. Schlenflog was my emergency locked onto the bench in DT  ;D   :-[

No loophole

I've got the same problem with Fort in DT... but I can loophole using Hore if I'm happy to take Clark's score over Scrimshaw... thoughts?

I almost did the same in AF, but just realised in time to put the E on Bines instead of Fort.

I put the E on Clark in DT and am not taking his score, but i think in your scanario you should take it to get Danger’s VC score. I can’t see Scrimshaw smashing out a ton.

[LaHug]

Oh .. Schlenflog was my emergency locked onto the bench in DT  ;D   :-[

No loophole

I've got the same problem with Fort in DT... but I can loophole using Hore if I'm happy to take Clark's score over Scrimshaw... thoughts?

I almost did the same in AF, but just realised in time to put the E on Bines instead of Fort.

I put the E on Clark in DT and am not taking his score, but i think in your scanario you should take it to get Danger’s VC score. I can’t see Scrimshaw smashing out a ton.

But could Scrimshaw + Macrae outscore Clark + Danger. That's the real question. Clark scored 57, Danger 132. I can see Scrimshaw + Macrae outdoing 189. It's not a certainty but Clark's poor score means that, if Scrim scores 73 again (not a certainty of course), then Macrae only needs 116 to break even. Would you loop Danger if he scored 116?

I'll probably still do it... Just want to have the discussion.

[Rusty00]

Oh .. Schlenflog was my emergency locked onto the bench in DT  ;D   :-[

No loophole

I've got the same problem with Fort in DT... but I can loophole using Hore if I'm happy to take Clark's score over Scrimshaw... thoughts?

I almost did the same in AF, but just realised in time to put the E on Bines instead of Fort.

I put the E on Clark in DT and am not taking his score, but i think in your scanario you should take it to get Danger’s VC score. I can’t see Scrimshaw smashing out a ton.

But could Scrimshaw + Macrae outscore Clark + Danger. That's the real question. Clark scored 57, Danger 132. I can see Scrimshaw + Macrae outdoing 189. It's not a certainty but Clark's poor score means that, if Scrim scores 73 again (not a certainty of course), then Macrae only needs 116 to break even. Would you loop Danger if he scored 116?

I'll probably still do it... Just want to have the discussion.

I agree there's a good chance the Macrae/Scrimshaw does score more. I probably look at the conservative side on the whole loophole scores.

Say Macrae scores 150 and Scrimshaw 75, which is probably the ceilings. You would lose 36 points.

However (and it's the same with SC VC loopholes) I tend to look at the worst case scenario if Macrae gets injured early and scores 50, you're down 60+ points.

Like I said though, I tend to look at it conservatively (maybe too conservatively). The old risk/reward conundrum ;)

[LaHug]

Oh .. Schlenflog was my emergency locked onto the bench in DT  ;D   :-[

No loophole

I've got the same problem with Fort in DT... but I can loophole using Hore if I'm happy to take Clark's score over Scrimshaw... thoughts?

I almost did the same in AF, but just realised in time to put the E on Bines instead of Fort.

I put the E on Clark in DT and am not taking his score, but i think in your scanario you should take it to get Danger’s VC score. I can’t see Scrimshaw smashing out a ton.

But could Scrimshaw + Macrae outscore Clark + Danger. That's the real question. Clark scored 57, Danger 132. I can see Scrimshaw + Macrae outdoing 189. It's not a certainty but Clark's poor score means that, if Scrim scores 73 again (not a certainty of course), then Macrae only needs 116 to break even. Would you loop Danger if he scored 116?

I'll probably still do it... Just want to have the discussion.

I agree there's a good chance the Macrae/Scrimshaw does score more. I probably look at the conservative side on the whole loophole scores.

Say Macrae scores 150 and Scrimshaw 75, which is probably the ceilings. You would lose 36 points.

However (and it's the same with SC VC loopholes) I tend to look at the worst case scenario if Macrae gets injured early and scores 50, you're down 60+ points.

Like I said though, I tend to look at it conservatively (maybe too conservatively). The old risk/reward conundrum ;)

I mean, my own article above had Macrae 125 and I honestly believe Scrim will score around 70. So it's 195 on prediction, ceiling of 225, floor of 150 barring injuries. Do I bet 49 points for an unlikely 36 points, a probable 6 points, and a very slight risk of losing even more than 49? I guess it's obvious when you look at it that way...

[LaHug]

Of course, that means I have to hold Hore for another week and miss out on... Powell? That's the best I can afford and only if I trade Greene out to Rozee. Yikes.

[Football Factory]

Oh .. Schlenflog was my emergency locked onto the bench in DT  ;D   :-[

No loophole

I've got the same problem with Fort in DT... but I can loophole using Hore if I'm happy to take Clark's score over Scrimshaw... thoughts?

Sounds good, wish i had a non playing player somewhere else. Oh well hopefully Brayshaw puts up a good score for me.

[Rusty00]

Of course, that means I have to hold Hore for another week and miss out on... Powell? That's the best I can afford and only if I trade Greene out to Rozee. Yikes.

I think that has to come into your thinking as well. If it means disrupting trades which potentially cost you more points/money down the track, then perhaps it's wise to stick with Macrae/Scrimshaw. I mean the odds are that you are going to end up with a similar score for this round either way (barring injuries)