Round 3 VC/C

Started by _wato, March 31, 2019, 10:17:18 PM

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Jalapeno

Quote from: Colley Dogs on April 04, 2019, 11:27:30 PM
Quote from: quinny88 on April 04, 2019, 11:05:32 PM
128 is awkward. Macrae against GC could be on that at 3QT

Agree. Awkward.

The usual line I take is:
- 129 or below: leave
- 130-134 = grey (Captain’s opponent dictates whether to take or leave)
- 135 or above: take

This creates a rule on whether to employ the loophole from week to week; I only allow gut feel to enter the equation when the VC scores 130-134. It’s an approach that’s stood me well over the years.

I’m therefore leaving the 128, and running with Fyfe as my C.

But... I have this nagging feeling I should take the 128; I WISH Danger had scored 130, because if he had I’d definitely be locking it away.

You are going to let 2 points change your mind? That is nuts. Anything over 120 I lock in as you never know what might happen.

MontyJnr

I think everyone is being a little too precious here.

You're lucky to even have the opportunity to have 2 cracks at locking down a decent captain's score. The game hasn't always given you that option and some weeks you're forced to just roll the dice on a sole captain if you don't have any loophole players.

Cheering on Macrae against Gold Coast is an exciting prospect IMO. Is it really that big of a deal to treat this round like a "sole captain" week and ignore Dangerfield's underwhelming 128?

And so what if it may only mean an extra 20-30 points. The difference that means in overall spots is thousands right now.

Holz

128, easy decision.

take it and be happy with it.

if it was 115 or something then it would be tough, the downside is 128 if you dont take him the upside is likely 20-30 with a smal chance of being 50ish

LaHug

I don't have Macrae but, in my little research here (http://www.drsc.com.au/lahugs-captains-2019-round-3/), I only have a few players scoring 130+. I don't think it's worth risking a lot of points for a chance at about 12...

no eye deer

My opponent stuffed up and didn’t change his C from last week.
Unfortunately his C was Danger. :'(
I’ll see how I’m tracking before the Dogs game, if he’s killing me I’ll go Macrae, probably take the 128 though.

MontyJnr

Quote from: LaHug on April 05, 2019, 10:19:09 AM
I don't have Macrae but, in my little research here (http://www.drsc.com.au/lahugs-captains-2019-round-3/), I only have a few players scoring 130+. I don't think it's worth risking a lot of points for a chance at about 12...

Your quote word for word in that article:

"Macrae is the safest pick this week and the highest ceiling. If you have him, you’ve gotta give him the C if your VC drops below 130."

Dangerfield dropped below 130. Therefore, we have to give Macrae the C based on your advice.

LaHug

Quote from: MontyJnr on April 05, 2019, 10:38:03 AM
Quote from: LaHug on April 05, 2019, 10:19:09 AM
I don't have Macrae but, in my little research here (http://www.drsc.com.au/lahugs-captains-2019-round-3/), I only have a few players scoring 130+. I don't think it's worth risking a lot of points for a chance at about 12...

Your quote word for word in that article:

"Macrae is the safest pick this week and the highest ceiling. If you have him, you’ve gotta give him the C if your VC drops below 130."

Dangerfield dropped below 130. Therefore, we have to give Macrae the C based on your advice.

Hahaha touche. I do round everything to the nearest 5 in those things so 128 is realistically right on the money. Then again, as Colley Dogs said, where do you draw the line? I don't think either decision is inherently wrong so maybe go with your gut! If you don't have Macrae though, lock in Danger for sure.

Woppa15

Quote from: dmac07 on April 04, 2019, 11:12:12 PM
Quote from: quinny88 on April 04, 2019, 11:10:47 PM
Quote from: dmac07 on April 04, 2019, 11:09:27 PM
Quote from: quinny88 on April 04, 2019, 11:05:32 PM
128 is awkward. Macrae against GC could be on that at 3QT

Awkward.. but I'm taking it. Not enough exposed form at this time of year to lock anyone in for a big score, learnt that round 1.

Macrae?

I don't have Macrae haha. But id still take the 128, just.

I’ve got Macrae and as much as I’d love to you can’t pass on 128.

ButteredToast123

I have the VC on Danger, but I'm not keen on taking it.
I'm unsure who to chuck the C on:
- Oliver
- Brayshaw
- Gawn
- Coniglio
- Grundy

LaHug

Quote from: ButteredToast123 on April 05, 2019, 01:42:02 PM
I have the VC on Danger, but I'm not keen on taking it.
I'm unsure who to chuck the C on:
- Oliver
- Brayshaw
- Gawn
- Coniglio
- Grundy

You don't have Macrae but you're still going to pass on 128? Yikes!

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: LaHug on April 05, 2019, 01:48:55 PM
Quote from: ButteredToast123 on April 05, 2019, 01:42:02 PM
I have the VC on Danger, but I'm not keen on taking it.
I'm unsure who to chuck the C on:
- Oliver
- Brayshaw
- Gawn
- Coniglio
- Grundy

You don't have Macrae but you're still going to pass on 128? Yikes!

Not like any of those guys can't beat 128

Nothing wrong with going for broke, although the odds are you probably won't gain much and might as well just bank Danger

Sometimes you gotta risk it for the biscuit!

ubeaut

Quote from: ButteredToast123 on April 05, 2019, 01:42:02 PM
I have the VC on Danger, but I'm not keen on taking it.
I'm unsure who to chuck the C on:
- Oliver
- Brayshaw
- Gawn
- Coniglio
- Grundy
Oliver will destroy my poor hopeless Bombers.

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: ubeaut on April 05, 2019, 02:39:41 PM
Quote from: ButteredToast123 on April 05, 2019, 01:42:02 PM
I have the VC on Danger, but I'm not keen on taking it.
I'm unsure who to chuck the C on:
- Oliver
- Brayshaw
- Gawn
- Coniglio
- Grundy
Oliver will destroy my poor hopeless Bombers.

I think he has a pretty poor record vs Dons actually

Probably doesn't mean too much this early in his career I guess

TommyC

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on April 05, 2019, 02:45:56 PM
Quote from: ubeaut on April 05, 2019, 02:39:41 PM
Quote from: ButteredToast123 on April 05, 2019, 01:42:02 PM
I have the VC on Danger, but I'm not keen on taking it.
I'm unsure who to chuck the C on:
- Oliver
- Brayshaw
- Gawn
- Coniglio
- Grundy
Oliver will destroy my poor hopeless Bombers.

I think he has a pretty poor record vs Dons actually

Probably doesn't mean too much this early in his career I guess
I thought Brayshaw was the one with the poor record. I thought Oliver did alright against them?
I most certainly could be wrong

js19

Quote from: LaHug on April 05, 2019, 11:12:45 AM
Quote from: MontyJnr on April 05, 2019, 10:38:03 AM
Quote from: LaHug on April 05, 2019, 10:19:09 AM
I don't have Macrae but, in my little research here (http://www.drsc.com.au/lahugs-captains-2019-round-3/), I only have a few players scoring 130+. I don't think it's worth risking a lot of points for a chance at about 12...

Your quote word for word in that article:

"Macrae is the safest pick this week and the highest ceiling. If you have him, you’ve gotta give him the C if your VC drops below 130."

Dangerfield dropped below 130. Therefore, we have to give Macrae the C based on your advice.

Hahaha touche. I do round everything to the nearest 5 in those things so 128 is realistically right on the money. Then again, as Colley Dogs said, where do you draw the line? I don't think either decision is inherently wrong so maybe go with your gut! If you don't have Macrae though, lock in Danger for sure.

Just as a quick calculation for fun, if you had Macrae as C every round he played last year, and each of those times you passed up a 128 VC score, you’d be 21 points down in total. I find it a bit poignant, as he averaged 127, so pretty much on the money.