your rnd 1 expected score

Started by kilbluff1985, March 16, 2019, 01:31:48 AM

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IntegralX

2100, but that's with no rookie scoring above 50 (except Moore/Walsh/Cousins) and no player scoring above 125. So I'd say that's a conservative estimate.

Colley Dogs

#16
Every season I aim for 2200 Round 1, and usually go close or just over.

Reckon I’ll fall somewhere between 2150 - 2200.

But... last year I had a fast start with three +2200 scores in the first three rounds and faded badly Rounds 4-Byes. Had the right combination to get out the gate quickly, but my keeper premiums weren’t the right ones for the mid game.

GoldDigger

#17
Around 2200 ...

TommyC

According to SuperCoach predictor: 1800 on the dot

duffercoat

Just did a spreadsheet to check my expected round 1 score.

I assumed premos to score as they did last season.

I assumed my mid-pricers (Williams, Greene and Rockliff) to score their last full season averages - 93.9, 90.4 and 96.3 respectively.

I assumed rookies to score 80% of their JLT average if they played over 70% ToG, and 100% of their JLT average if they averaged under 70% ToG (Hately, Duursma). Of my 8 on field rookies, the average rookie score worked out to be 66.7 with a high of 79 (Walsh) and a low of 58 (Collins).

Captain was assumed to be the highest scoring player (Grundy) at 130.5

Got a total of 2173. 

dmac07

I added it up 2260 for me rnd1.

imjusflexin

Quote from: dmac07 on March 20, 2019, 01:20:11 PM
I added it up 2260 for me rnd1.
Macrae 160, Brad Crouch 140, Liberatore 120, Walsh 100?  ;)

dmac07

Quote from: imjusflexin on March 20, 2019, 01:36:21 PM
Quote from: dmac07 on March 20, 2019, 01:20:11 PM
I added it up 2260 for me rnd1.
Macrae 160, Brad Crouch 140, Liberatore 120, Walsh 100?  ;)

Don't have, don't have have, don't have, and Walsh is going to have a stinker, gave hin 85  ;).

But all my picks are awesome and going to score at their best cause I don't habe evidence to the contrary before a game is played  8)

Did give Grundy 140, bit think between him and Cripps one will hit. Geelongs ruck stocks are pretty poor.

GoldDigger

2054 in the end - I'd guessed round 2100, so not quite what I'd hoped for.

duffercoat

Quote from: duffercoat on March 18, 2019, 05:31:50 PM
Just did a spreadsheet to check my expected round 1 score.

I assumed premos to score as they did last season.

I assumed my mid-pricers (Williams, Greene and Rockliff) to score their last full season averages - 93.9, 90.4 and 96.3 respectively.

I assumed rookies to score 80% of their JLT average if they played over 70% ToG, and 100% of their JLT average if they averaged under 70% ToG (Hately, Duursma). Of my 8 on field rookies, the average rookie score worked out to be 66.7 with a high of 79 (Walsh) and a low of 58 (Collins).

Captain was assumed to be the highest scoring player (Grundy) at 130.5

Got a total of 2173. 

Finished with a round one score of 2174. Almost nailed it!

meow meow

Quote from: duffercoat on March 26, 2019, 08:18:08 AM
Quote from: duffercoat on March 18, 2019, 05:31:50 PM
Just did a spreadsheet to check my expected round 1 score.

I assumed premos to score as they did last season.

I assumed my mid-pricers (Williams, Greene and Rockliff) to score their last full season averages - 93.9, 90.4 and 96.3 respectively.

I assumed rookies to score 80% of their JLT average if they played over 70% ToG, and 100% of their JLT average if they averaged under 70% ToG (Hately, Duursma). Of my 8 on field rookies, the average rookie score worked out to be 66.7 with a high of 79 (Walsh) and a low of 58 (Collins).

Captain was assumed to be the highest scoring player (Grundy) at 130.5

Got a total of 2173. 

Finished with a round one score of 2174. Almost nailed it!

Outperformed, gotta be happy with that!