2019 Forwards

[StuL]

Any love for Lobb? I don't know how long Sandi is out and if Darcy plays in the same team as him but if he is solo ruck for early part of the season he has to be considered as a forward. Currently have him with Bins at R3 for the Fwd/Ruck swap.

[quinny88]

People forgetting that they'd start Greene at premo price but when he's 350k people have question marks.

He will love the new rules, think 95+ is a definite.

Because he is injury prone and does stupid shower all the time. Would be an easy lock otherwise

[StuL]

People forgetting that they'd start Greene at premo price but when he's 350k people have question marks.

He will love the new rules, think 95+ is a definite.

Because he is injury prone and does stupid shower all the time. Would be an easy lock otherwise

If he can get up to 500k and keep it together for a couple of months before getting injured or belting Caleb Daniel I can live with that. Gives you a chance to assess who the genuine 500k premos are too. We all remember the Billings debacle right?

[quinny88]

People forgetting that they'd start Greene at premo price but when he's 350k people have question marks.

He will love the new rules, think 95+ is a definite.

Because he is injury prone and does stupid shower all the time. Would be an easy lock otherwise

If he can get up to 500k and keep it together for a couple of months before getting injured or belting Caleb Daniel I can live with that. Gives you a chance to assess who the genuine 500k premos are too. We all remember the Billings debacle right?

Well they don't play the dogs till the 2nd last round so you could be safe from him belting someone lol. He does an early injury though and things could be awkward with no one to trade to. He's tempting but he's got burn man written all over him

[Mat0369]

I traded Greene in last year at round 5 for him to score a whopping 55, pick up a phantom injury and have him sit awkwardly on my bench until I had to trade him again. I traded him in instead of Robbie Gray. It's a hard pass from me.

[erich1036]

I traded Greene in last year at round 5 for him to score a whopping 55, pick up a phantom injury and have him sit awkwardly on my bench until I had to trade him again. I traded him in instead of Robbie Gray. It's a hard pass from me.

So you were happy to trade him in at 530k less than a year ago but now he's 350k and he's a hard pass? ???

[Holz]

I traded Greene in last year at round 5 for him to score a whopping 55, pick up a phantom injury and have him sit awkwardly on my bench until I had to trade him again. I traded him in instead of Robbie Gray. It's a hard pass from me.

You Picking him on not picking him last year has zero effect on how good a pick he is this year.

I picked up jroo last year for 330k and he went on yo average 100 from thrn. He is still a bad pick this year

[Mat0369]

So you were happy to trade him in at 530k less than a year ago but now he's 350k and he's a hard pass? ???

100%. The circumstances last year are similar to this year. He had an iffy pre-season, came out and killed it round 1, missed the next two rounds, was decent round 4 and then missed a chunk of games after injuring himself again round 5. This year he has had an interrupted pre-season and he is more than likely going to burn the majority of people that pick him.

Last year I thought the value was there with him expected to go up in price and knowing his scoring potential but it backfired hard and fast. He is the epitome of a trap player. You know the risks, you don't listen to your head and pick them anyway and when it backfires you think to yourself 'why the F did I do that?'

You Picking him on not picking him last year has zero effect on how good a pick he is this year.

I picked up jroo last year for 330k and he went on yo average 100 from thrn. He is still a bad pick this year

You pick him, burn a trade within the first two weeks and then regret it. If you want a mid price option there are plenty in the back half, or if you're itching to live and die by the sword grab Rocky/Brad Crouch who have at least looked like playing this year with better ceilings for an extra 50k

[imjusflexin]

If you want a mid price option there are plenty in the back half, or if you're itching to live and die by the sword grab Rocky/Brad Crouch who have at least looked like playing this year with better ceilings for an extra 50k

The reason he's a popular choice is because of the state of the FWD premos this year (no reliable picks other than Danger, Heeney, Kelly & Menegola, and they all have the same bye) and the lack of promising FWD rookies.. When all the other choices don't look very safe themselves, going for Greene, who if fit (which seems to be the case according to the Giants camp) should have no problem banging out a 95+ average, looks like a fairly safe option at his price.

If he gets injured early, it's just a trade gone and he becomes a rookie, you pocket 200k. If he gets injured about 8 or so weeks in, you do the same and pocket 350k, or you sideways trade him to a performing FWD premo (basically treating him as  a cash cow). Both aren't ideal, but are worth the risk for such a massive reward.

And BTW I'd grab Brad Crouch in a second if he was a fwd, he's nowhere near my mids line though.

[GoLions]

Any love for Lobb? I don't know how long Sandi is out and if Darcy plays in the same team as him but if he is solo ruck for early part of the season he has to be considered as a forward. Currently have him with Bins at R3 for the Fwd/Ruck swap.

I looked at him briefly, but he'll need to be #1 ruck for a significant period of time to justify the risk, and at 410k or whatever he is, the reward isn't enough imo

[Mat0369]

The reason he's a popular choice is because of the state of the FWD premos this year (no reliable picks other than Danger, Heeney, Kelly & Menegola, and they all have the same bye) and the lack of promising FWD rookies.. When all the other choices don't look very safe themselves, going for Greene, who if fit (which seems to be the case according to the Giants camp) should have no problem banging out a 95+ average, looks like a fairly safe option at his price.

If he gets injured early, it's just a trade gone and he becomes a rookie, you pocket 200k. If he gets injured about 8 or so weeks in, you do the same and pocket 350k, or you sideways trade him to a performing FWD premo (basically treating him as  a cash cow). Both aren't ideal, but are worth the risk for such a massive reward.

And BTW I'd grab Brad Crouch in a second if he was a fwd, he's nowhere near my mids line though.

People are starting Greene at F3. That is not a smart move. Forward rookies don't seem to be very deep and you are going to struggle to find 3, let alone 4, to start on field. There is no chance in hell I am going anywhere near Toby Greene as my forward 3. It has to be 3 of those 4 you mentioned to start the year. Personally I have Danger, Heeney and Menegola. I am also locking one of Boak or Acres at F4 (most likely Boak at this stage).

[SilverLion]

If you want a mid price option there are plenty in the back half, or if you're itching to live and die by the sword grab Rocky/Brad Crouch who have at least looked like playing this year with better ceilings for an extra 50k

The reason he's a popular choice is because of the state of the FWD premos this year (no reliable picks other than Danger, Heeney, Kelly & Menegola, and they all have the same bye) and the lack of promising FWD rookies.. When all the other choices don't look very safe themselves, going for Greene, who if fit (which seems to be the case according to the Giants camp) should have no problem banging out a 95+ average, looks like a fairly safe option at his price.

If he gets injured early, it's just a trade gone and he becomes a rookie, you pocket 200k. If he gets injured about 8 or so weeks in, you do the same and pocket 350k, or you sideways trade him to a performing FWD premo (basically treating him as  a cash cow). Both aren't ideal, but are worth the risk for such a massive reward.

And BTW I'd grab Brad Crouch in a second if he was a fwd, he's nowhere near my mids line though.

Devon Smith??

But agree, if he's fit, he's a premo priced at 350k. If he gets injured, then it's not like he'll lose cash and you'd only be burning 1 correction trade and hes definitely the type of player you'd allow one for.

[Mat0369]

What worries me with Dev Smith is he had to record the highest tackle total for an AFL season to average what he did. It is the exact same thing that worried a lot of people when Lachie Neale had his first big season and had to break the possession record to do it. Neale dipped by about 3 points the next season.

Dev is also now losing minutes in the guts with the acquisition of Shiel. So I think a 3-5 point drop is pretty likely. It will still probably put him in the top 8, but he may be had at a discount later in the year

[Mat0369]

One other thing I haven't really looked at is tackle totals through JLT. If the game is going to be more free flowing I would expect those numbers to dip a little.

[imjusflexin]

What worries me with Dev Smith is he had to record the highest tackle total for an AFL season to average what he did. It is the exact same thing that worried a lot of people when Lachie Neale had his first big season and had to break the possession record to do it. Neale dipped by about 3 points the next season.

Dev is also now losing minutes in the guts with the acquisition of Shiel. So I think a 3-5 point drop is pretty likely. It will still probably put him in the top 8, but he may be had at a discount later in the year

I feel the same way. And he's electric in the forward line so expect him to roll through there a lot also. Should still score well but 530 is a tough price.