2019 Defenders

Started by Southstorm, January 27, 2019, 09:17:55 PM

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TommyC

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 14, 2019, 11:05:43 AM
Quote from: TommyC on March 14, 2019, 09:45:57 AM
Quote from: kilbluff1985 on March 14, 2019, 09:43:11 AM
is hurn an ok pick? really cant find anyone im comfortable paying up for atleast he has durability and kickin might help him
I'm considering going him over Whitfield.
Is consistent and should average around the 100 - 105 mark.

Has never averaged near 100 his entire career. 100-105 sounds pretty ambitious

Mid to high 90's is where I would think he lands, similar to last year, maybe an extra ppg or two

Shouldn't drop a heap in cash, which is probably appealing as the top guys most likely will
Yeah, was probably a little ambitious saying 105.
However the fact he won't drop in price that much makes me prefer him over Laird.

Pokerface

Quote from: LaHug on March 14, 2019, 11:50:35 AM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 14, 2019, 11:05:43 AM
Quote from: TommyC on March 14, 2019, 09:45:57 AM
Quote from: kilbluff1985 on March 14, 2019, 09:43:11 AM
is hurn an ok pick? really cant find anyone im comfortable paying up for atleast he has durability and kickin might help him
I'm considering going him over Whitfield.
Is consistent and should average around the 100 - 105 mark.

Has never averaged near 100 his entire career. 100-105 sounds pretty ambitious

Mid to high 90's is where I would think he lands, similar to last year, maybe an extra ppg or two

Shouldn't drop a heap in cash, which is probably appealing as the top guys most likely will

If we go by the JLT kick-ins (and we probably should take them with a HUGE grain of salt), he played on 9 times. Assuming 2/3 of these kicks will be effective and no clangers (at least incredibly rare from a long kick-in), that's an extra 3 effective kicks or 12 points per game. I'm not saying it will happen, but he has one of the biggest upsides from the kick-in rule and very little downside due to his usual consistent scoring. I don't have the cash to bring him in unless I drop Roberton to Moore, Boak to someone under $463k, Gawn to Goldy, or ditch a mid-pricer (Smith, Crouch, Libba, Greene). Not sure I want to do any of that just to upgrade Witherden to Hurn but it's tempting.
Need to factor in he played on over 60% of the time last year with kick ins - any estimation of 'extra' points would be at least halved as they are not new points

Thewizz71

Why no love for Simmo? Thinking of starting him over Laird and Lloyd.
Someone talk me out of it.

Samm79

Quote from: Thewizz71 on March 14, 2019, 10:01:24 PM
Why no love for Simmo? Thinking of starting him over Laird and Lloyd.
Someone talk me out of it.

Old grandpa Simmo?? Past it, over the hill, have been saying it for years. Will be right with this statement at some stage  ::)

I’d say age mostly, and he’s pretty much maxed value wise. Very durable, and consistent.

kilbluff1985

Quote from: Samm79 on March 14, 2019, 10:07:27 PM
Quote from: Thewizz71 on March 14, 2019, 10:01:24 PM
Why no love for Simmo? Thinking of starting him over Laird and Lloyd.
Someone talk me out of it.

Old grandpa Simmo?? Past it, over the hill, have been saying it for years. Will be right with this statement at some stage  ::)

I’d say age mostly, and he’s pretty much maxed value wise. Very durable, and consistent.

i think its hilarious u kids talking shower about Simmo. u wouldnt say this shower to him at the retirement home, hes jacked. not only that but he wears the freshest clothes, eats at the chillest restaurants and hangs out with the hottest grandmas. yall are pathetic lol.

jfitty

Quote from: Thewizz71 on March 14, 2019, 10:01:24 PM
Why no love for Simmo? Thinking of starting him over Laird and Lloyd.
Someone talk me out of it.

I am, and feel very comfortable about it.

quinny88

Did people really get that spooked by Lairds second JLT game?  ???

He scored 82 not 30. He's the safest defender to be top 3 by a mile and certainly won't be leaving my side

_wato

Quote from: quinny88 on March 14, 2019, 11:33:44 PM
Did people really get that spooked by Lairds second JLT game?  ???

He scored 82 not 30. He's the safest defender to be top 3 by a mile and certainly won't be leaving my side

No doubt he'll be up there. But there is enough evidence and especially looking back to 2017 when Laird put up premo numbers that he'll take a hit with a fit Brodie Smith and Milera running around there now who wasn't there previously.

Probably loses 2/3 kicks so given his price of 108 avg, a lot of people like myself are not willing to spend up for that. I see him around the 98-100avg so happy to get him cheaper.

jfitty

Quote from: quinny88 on March 14, 2019, 11:33:44 PM
Did people really get that spooked by Lairds second JLT game?  ???

He scored 82 not 30. He's the safest defender to be top 3 by a mile and certainly won't be leaving my side

Absolutely nothing wrong with him at all for mine, I'm just starting Simpson over him for the POD factor, and rolling with Smith as my choice Crows defender for now.

sammy123

I like the premiums i have on othet lines. So it means i didnt start laird for money reasons. But gives me time to see how he goes with smith and milera running around

quinny88

I hadn't looked into his scores from last year with Smith and Milera playing. Small sample but it's a bit concerning when it's translated into the JLT as well

LaHug

Quote from: Pokerface on March 14, 2019, 08:32:01 PM
Quote from: LaHug on March 14, 2019, 11:50:35 AM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 14, 2019, 11:05:43 AM
Quote from: TommyC on March 14, 2019, 09:45:57 AM
Quote from: kilbluff1985 on March 14, 2019, 09:43:11 AM
is hurn an ok pick? really cant find anyone im comfortable paying up for atleast he has durability and kickin might help him
I'm considering going him over Whitfield.
Is consistent and should average around the 100 - 105 mark.

Has never averaged near 100 his entire career. 100-105 sounds pretty ambitious

Mid to high 90's is where I would think he lands, similar to last year, maybe an extra ppg or two

Shouldn't drop a heap in cash, which is probably appealing as the top guys most likely will

If we go by the JLT kick-ins (and we probably should take them with a HUGE grain of salt), he played on 9 times. Assuming 2/3 of these kicks will be effective and no clangers (at least incredibly rare from a long kick-in), that's an extra 3 effective kicks or 12 points per game. I'm not saying it will happen, but he has one of the biggest upsides from the kick-in rule and very little downside due to his usual consistent scoring. I don't have the cash to bring him in unless I drop Roberton to Moore, Boak to someone under $463k, Gawn to Goldy, or ditch a mid-pricer (Smith, Crouch, Libba, Greene). Not sure I want to do any of that just to upgrade Witherden to Hurn but it's tempting.
Need to factor in he played on over 60% of the time last year with kick ins - any estimation of 'extra' points would be at least halved as they are not new points

Knew I was missing something obvious. So it's actually only an increase of 1.5 kicks per game, so probably somewhere around 4-6 extra points. Still nice to have but changes him from a "lock" to a "if you've got the cash"...

walloo44

@cleary_mitch: Saint Kilda defender Dylan Roberton will step aside from football in 2019

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: quinny88 on March 15, 2019, 01:55:17 AM
I hadn't looked into his scores from last year with Smith and Milera playing. Small sample but it's a bit concerning when it's translated into the JLT as well

Small sample size, but after you said this I looked at things a bit closer

The only time Laird usually puts up his big scores (120+) he needs high 30/low 40 touches to do it. Now with those two, I don't think he gets that much pill, so for that reason I think I am passing on Laird too as the numbers suggest he should likely fall to 95-100 where his previous 3 years avg was, so get him cheaper later on and I don't think he will actually have too many monster scores that will hurt not having him either now

Holz

people are going over the top with these kick ins. Its sounding like its the only way to be a good scorer as a defender.

Luke Brown crows leading kick in guy 71 SC average
Dunn 61 average
McKenna 74


its important but there are many more things then just kick ins to take notice of.

also just on Laird he had less then 1 kick in a game, so he wont be affected.