2019 Defenders

[eaglesman]

I'm thinking if there is a year and a line to grab mid price options, this is the year and the backs are the spot.

There is a strategy in NFL Fantasy Football called 0 Running Back (RB). It's basically that there are X amount of guys that are pure starters in the NFL that are worthy of their draft position. The idea is you draft guys in positions where you are more likely to get a known quantity early before filling out the rest of your team and getting guys that look like they could be in decent spots and produce. RB you typically have 2 or 3 guys that put up huge points and the rest appear to be a cluster. So once you don't have a shot of that 2 or 3 you wait for that cluster as long as possible.

Salary cap leagues are a bit different since everyone can start the same players. However backs this year have the same feel. You have two or three guys you could pony up the cash for and then the field is much of the same.

I think the value of guys like Mills, Newman, Williams, Roberton, Smith and even Witherden are too hard to pass up. You have guys in great situations that could very well be not that far off those 4 guys that cost 120-273k more and they are going to at worst be in that 2nd cluster of guys.

I'd be tempted to go '0 back' and not start any defender over 500k while loading up on the cheaper guys. You could also use guys like Brodie Smith and Dylan Roberton as stepping stones for those guys currently sitting north of 570k, Laird is the only guy I am considering in the upper echelon right now.

I agree and I’m already doing this. Laird looked great the other day and if he plays so advanced up the ground in JLT2 then will be hard to ignore him.

[jfitty]

I'm thinking if there is a year and a line to grab mid price options, this is the year and the backs are the spot.

There is a strategy in NFL Fantasy Football called 0 Running Back (RB). It's basically that there are X amount of guys that are pure starters in the NFL that are worthy of their draft position. The idea is you draft guys in positions where you are more likely to get a known quantity early before filling out the rest of your team and getting guys that look like they could be in decent spots and produce. RB you typically have 2 or 3 guys that put up huge points and the rest appear to be a cluster. So once you don't have a shot of that 2 or 3 you wait for that cluster as long as possible.

Salary cap leagues are a bit different since everyone can start the same players. However backs this year have the same feel. You have two or three guys you could pony up the cash for and then the field is much of the same.

I think the value of guys like Mills, Newman, Williams, Roberton, Smith and even Witherden are too hard to pass up. You have guys in great situations that could very well be not that far off those 4 guys that cost 120-273k more and they are going to at worst be in that 2nd cluster of guys.

I'd be tempted to go '0 back' and not start any defender over 500k while loading up on the cheaper guys. You could also use guys like Brodie Smith and Dylan Roberton as stepping stones for those guys currently sitting north of 570k, Laird is the only guy I am considering in the upper echelon right now.

I agree and I’m already doing this. Laird looked great the other day and if he plays so advanced up the ground in JLT2 then will be hard to ignore him.

While I like the theory, the hardest part about Zero RB is picking the right running backs when you do start to draft them ;D

Starting say, Witherden, Smith and Newman might look good, but if they all go on to only average 80-85 then you're almost stuck with them.

[Nige]

I'm thinking if there is a year and a line to grab mid price options, this is the year and the backs are the spot.

There is a strategy in NFL Fantasy Football called 0 Running Back (RB). It's basically that there are X amount of guys that are pure starters in the NFL that are worthy of their draft position. The idea is you draft guys in positions where you are more likely to get a known quantity early before filling out the rest of your team and getting guys that look like they could be in decent spots and produce. RB you typically have 2 or 3 guys that put up huge points and the rest appear to be a cluster. So once you don't have a shot of that 2 or 3 you wait for that cluster as long as possible.

Salary cap leagues are a bit different since everyone can start the same players. However backs this year have the same feel. You have two or three guys you could pony up the cash for and then the field is much of the same.

I think the value of guys like Mills, Newman, Williams, Roberton, Smith and even Witherden are too hard to pass up. You have guys in great situations that could very well be not that far off those 4 guys that cost 120-273k more and they are going to at worst be in that 2nd cluster of guys.

I'd be tempted to go '0 back' and not start any defender over 500k while loading up on the cheaper guys. You could also use guys like Brodie Smith and Dylan Roberton as stepping stones for those guys currently sitting north of 570k, Laird is the only guy I am considering in the upper echelon right now.

I agree and I’m already doing this. Laird looked great the other day and if he plays so advanced up the ground in JLT2 then will be hard to ignore him.

Yeah, I'm also on board with this. Currently rolling with Laird, Witherden, Smith, Roberton from D1-4 and like the look of it. It's partially because I'm not fully trusting of anyone around Laird's price and because these other guys look to be significant value at a much bettter price while allowing me to structure other lines exactly as I want them.

[RaisyDaisy]

That could really backfire though, and you're left with a bunch of defenders going 80ish while the best are going 95+

Roberton is a no brainer because he's super cheap, and has 2 x years of proven 90+

Brodie could be a massive trap - pumped out a big score in his 2nd game back last year and did well again on the weekend, but history suggests he'll end up in the 80ish range

Guys like Witherden could go 90+ or they could end up in the high 80's again

Laird, Williams and Roberton are locked for me at the moment, but I'd be wanting a Lloyd/Sicily/Whitfield type I think just to bolster it up, because at least you pick them knowing they will be keepers all year, where as all of these 300-500k guys could be anything

That said, I can certainly see the appeal in this approach, even Mills looks juicy. Big risk big reward, or big fail?

[Bully]

That could really backfire though, and you're left with a bunch of defenders going 80ish while the best are going 95+

Roberton is a no brainer because he's super cheap, and has 2 x years of proven 90+

Brodie could be a massive trap - pumped out a big score in his 2nd game back last year and did well again on the weekend, but history suggests he'll end up in the 80ish range

Guys like Witherden could go 90+ or they could end up in the high 80's again

Laird, Williams and Roberton are locked for me at the moment, but I'd be wanting a Lloyd/Sicily/Whitfield type I think just to bolster it up, because at least you pick them knowing they will be keepers all year, where as all of these 300-500k guys could be anything

That said, I can certainly see the appeal in this approach, even Mills looks juicy. Big risk big reward, or big fail?

Smith is still a cash cow, that negates the risk compared to picking Mills/Witherden/Newman. There's every chance he makes more cash than Duursma/Quaynor/Collins/Logue plus he could be a handy D6 if he hits top form.

[RaisyDaisy]

That could really backfire though, and you're left with a bunch of defenders going 80ish while the best are going 95+

Roberton is a no brainer because he's super cheap, and has 2 x years of proven 90+

Brodie could be a massive trap - pumped out a big score in his 2nd game back last year and did well again on the weekend, but history suggests he'll end up in the 80ish range

Guys like Witherden could go 90+ or they could end up in the high 80's again

Laird, Williams and Roberton are locked for me at the moment, but I'd be wanting a Lloyd/Sicily/Whitfield type I think just to bolster it up, because at least you pick them knowing they will be keepers all year, where as all of these 300-500k guys could be anything

That said, I can certainly see the appeal in this approach, even Mills looks juicy. Big risk big reward, or big fail?

Smith is still a cash cow, that negates the risk compared to picking Mills/Witherden/Newman. There's every chance he makes more cash than Duursma/Quaynor/Collins/Logue plus he could be a handy D6 if he hits top form.

Not sure he's a cash cow at 332k

Unless he pumps out several 100+ scores, he will struggle to get over 420k

He's a stepping stone who has a very small chance of being good enough for D6, but the problem I think a lot of people are going to face is having to blow so many precious trades on correcting and or upgrading all these speculative mid types

[GoLions]

That could really backfire though, and you're left with a bunch of defenders going 80ish while the best are going 95+

Roberton is a no brainer because he's super cheap, and has 2 x years of proven 90+

Brodie could be a massive trap - pumped out a big score in his 2nd game back last year and did well again on the weekend, but history suggests he'll end up in the 80ish range

Guys like Witherden could go 90+ or they could end up in the high 80's again

Laird, Williams and Roberton are locked for me at the moment, but I'd be wanting a Lloyd/Sicily/Whitfield type I think just to bolster it up, because at least you pick them knowing they will be keepers all year, where as all of these 300-500k guys could be anything

That said, I can certainly see the appeal in this approach, even Mills looks juicy. Big risk big reward, or big fail?

Smith is still a cash cow, that negates the risk compared to picking Mills/Witherden/Newman. There's every chance he makes more cash than Duursma/Quaynor/Collins/Logue plus he could be a handy D6 if he hits top form.

Not sure he's a cash cow at 332k

Unless he pumps out several 100+ scores, he will struggle to get over 420k

He's a stepping stone who has a very small chance of being good enough for D6, but the problem I think a lot of people are going to face is having to blow so many precious trades on correcting and or upgrading all these speculative mid types

Yeah Smith is in that awkward price range for a defender...to make enough cash to justify starting him, he just about has to put up premo numbers

[Money Shot]

Roberton is the only one who needs to be locked in. Great price and could end up being D6

Smith is slightly too much and is destined for a mid 80s which won’t increase his price by much.

McGrath, Mills and Newman need to become premiums at there price. They possibly could but at this stage I’ll be passing.

[frenzy]

Some of these premo Defs have me worried about backing up their output. So much so, I am planning to pass on them and wait for a hopeful reduction in cashola. I cannot see Simmo and Lloyd repeating the dose. May have to use some of these steppingstones in the intrim. Would rather start $600k mids, will sleep better.

[Bully]

That could really backfire though, and you're left with a bunch of defenders going 80ish while the best are going 95+

Roberton is a no brainer because he's super cheap, and has 2 x years of proven 90+

Brodie could be a massive trap - pumped out a big score in his 2nd game back last year and did well again on the weekend, but history suggests he'll end up in the 80ish range

Guys like Witherden could go 90+ or they could end up in the high 80's again

Laird, Williams and Roberton are locked for me at the moment, but I'd be wanting a Lloyd/Sicily/Whitfield type I think just to bolster it up, because at least you pick them knowing they will be keepers all year, where as all of these 300-500k guys could be anything

That said, I can certainly see the appeal in this approach, even Mills looks juicy. Big risk big reward, or big fail?

Smith is still a cash cow, that negates the risk compared to picking Mills/Witherden/Newman. There's every chance he makes more cash than Duursma/Quaynor/Collins/Logue plus he could be a handy D6 if he hits top form.

Not sure he's a cash cow at 332k

Unless he pumps out several 100+ scores, he will struggle to get over 420k

He's a stepping stone who has a very small chance of being good enough for D6, but the problem I think a lot of people are going to face is having to blow so many precious trades on correcting and or upgrading all these speculative mid types

Most of the rookie defenders are in that annoying 150k range so will probably make 150k tops. Smith should hit 430k at some stage, he could even go higher if he gets on a run. Don't think there will be much in it to be honest & I'm happy to pay extra for some good job security.

[kilbluff1985]

b smith will average more then z williams there i said it

[hawkers65]

b smith will average more then z williams there i said it

Fairy Land

[crowls]

b smith will average more then z williams there i said it

Fairy Land

B smith,  where is the history showing his capacity and likelihood of going 90+.   Every year its the same, B Smith this and B Smith that and it always ends the same.   Downside just seems so much higher than upside.   Whitfield, Williams, Heater, Simpson, Mills, Lloyd, Crisp, Witherdon, Sicily all options to assess over the first half.   Why even bother with Smith.

[Bully]

b smith will average more then z williams there i said it

Fairy Land

B smith,  where is the history showing his capacity and likelihood of going 90+.   Every year its the same, B Smith this and B Smith that and it always ends the same.   Downside just seems so much higher than upside.   Whitfield, Williams, Heater, Simpson, Mills, Lloyd, Crisp, Witherdon, Sicily all options to assess over the first half.   Why even bother with Smith.

Because he's only 150k more than most of the rookies, I place him in the same boat as Roberton, not someone you'd pick in the 450k region but certainly viable as a mid pricer with upside & guaranteed earnings potential. Smith & Roberton come in at just over 600k, I think you'd be very hard pressed to come up with a better combo using the same dosh.

[Pokerface]

b smith will average more then z williams there i said it

Fairy Land

B smith,  where is the history showing his capacity and likelihood of going 90+.   Every year its the same, B Smith this and B Smith that and it always ends the same.   Downside just seems so much higher than upside.   Whitfield, Williams, Heater, Simpson, Mills, Lloyd, Crisp, Witherdon, Sicily all options to assess over the first half.   Why even bother with Smith.

:o