2019 Defenders

[quinny88]

I think everyone's just suffering from this wonderful time of year where there's no games on to judge anything so we over analyse every stat known to man, change our team based on every article that comes out about a training  performance and look for reasons to dump or grab guys to gain an extra .5%

JLT will start soon then we can all get on with dumping premiums because they don't have a day out in a practice game  ;D

[Colley Dogs]

When I pick prems to start, I am picking guys who I think will finish the year as the highest on that line - that's the goal for me, and price is secondary

I understand the need for some to jump on high priced defenders (Lloyd/Laird/Sicily) but how many Top 10 defenders from previous seasons actually backed up and went Top 10 again??

2015 > 2016 (3)
2016 > 2017 (3)
2017 > 2018 (4)
2018 > 2019 ??

who says Lloyd/Laird/Sicily will be top 10? especially now with the new kick in rules wouldn't looking at guys like Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short be the better option?? save money and possibly close the gap on points?

If Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short benefit from the new kick-in rules, it stands to reason that so would Lloyd/Sicily/Simpson. Yes, the value defenders may see an increase in points, but then so too would the ultra premiums.

I predict Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, and Simpson will be the top averaging defenders at the end of the season.

But for the reason you’ve outlined, I’m not starting Laird (I’m making him my first upgrade target). I want to see the impact of the new rules on scoring before I bring in Laird. I expect no impact, but playing it ultra safe.

So you think the exact same top four defenders from last season will be exactly the same this season too.

History would suggest you will be way off the mark.

Yes... because the rule change is going to benefit three of the top four defenders from last season; and I’m confident Laird will maintain his average.

Without this rule change I’d not have this opinion.

It’s a perfect storm; previous seasons didn’t have a rule change like this.

Of course... it’s only an opinion.

But I’m putting my money where my mouth is: I’m starting with Lloyd & Sicily.

[ben_020285]

When I pick prems to start, I am picking guys who I think will finish the year as the highest on that line - that's the goal for me, and price is secondary

I understand the need for some to jump on high priced defenders (Lloyd/Laird/Sicily) but how many Top 10 defenders from previous seasons actually backed up and went Top 10 again??

2015 > 2016 (3)
2016 > 2017 (3)
2017 > 2018 (4)
2018 > 2019 ??

who says Lloyd/Laird/Sicily will be top 10? especially now with the new kick in rules wouldn't looking at guys like Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short be the better option?? save money and possibly close the gap on points?

If Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short benefit from the new kick-in rules, it stands to reason that so would Lloyd/Sicily/Simpson. Yes, the value defenders may see an increase in points, but then so too would the ultra premiums.

I predict Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, and Simpson will be the top averaging defenders at the end of the season.

But for the reason you’ve outlined, I’m not starting Laird (I’m making him my first upgrade target). I want to see the impact of the new rules on scoring before I bring in Laird. I expect no impact, but playing it ultra safe.

So you think the exact same top four defenders from last season will be exactly the same this season too.

History would suggest you will be way off the mark.

Yes... because the rule change is going to benefit three of the top four defenders from last season; and I’m confident Laird will maintain his average.

Without this rule change I’d not have this opinion.

It’s a perfect storm; previous seasons didn’t have a rule change like this.

Of course... it’s only an opinion.

But I’m putting my money where my mouth is: I’m starting with Lloyd & Sicily.

You’re entitled to your opinion but surely you can see the likelihood of what you’re suggesting is extremely low.

[RaisyDaisy]

Who were the 3, 3 and 4 players who backed it up?

I'm curious as to whether their ability to back it up was obvious, and can be correlated to last years Top 5

[Colley Dogs]

I think everyone's just suffering from this wonderful time of year where there's no games on to judge anything so we over analyse every stat known to man, change our team based on every article that comes out about a training  performance and look for reasons to dump or grab guys to gain an extra .5%

JLT will start soon then we can all get on with dumping premiums because they don't have a day out in a practice game  ;D

I honestly hope that Whitfield/Hurn/Ryan/Witherden/Short have huge JLTs so everyone jumps off the ultra-premiums

[Colley Dogs]

When I pick prems to start, I am picking guys who I think will finish the year as the highest on that line - that's the goal for me, and price is secondary

I understand the need for some to jump on high priced defenders (Lloyd/Laird/Sicily) but how many Top 10 defenders from previous seasons actually backed up and went Top 10 again??

2015 > 2016 (3)
2016 > 2017 (3)
2017 > 2018 (4)
2018 > 2019 ??

who says Lloyd/Laird/Sicily will be top 10? especially now with the new kick in rules wouldn't looking at guys like Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short be the better option?? save money and possibly close the gap on points?

If Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short benefit from the new kick-in rules, it stands to reason that so would Lloyd/Sicily/Simpson. Yes, the value defenders may see an increase in points, but then so too would the ultra premiums.

I predict Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, and Simpson will be the top averaging defenders at the end of the season.

But for the reason you’ve outlined, I’m not starting Laird (I’m making him my first upgrade target). I want to see the impact of the new rules on scoring before I bring in Laird. I expect no impact, but playing it ultra safe.

So you think the exact same top four defenders from last season will be exactly the same this season too.

History would suggest you will be way off the mark.

Yes... because the rule change is going to benefit three of the top four defenders from last season; and I’m confident Laird will maintain his average.

Without this rule change I’d not have this opinion.

It’s a perfect storm; previous seasons didn’t have a rule change like this.

Of course... it’s only an opinion.

But I’m putting my money where my mouth is: I’m starting with Lloyd & Sicily.

You’re entitled to your opinion but surely you can see the likelihood of what you’re suggesting is extremely low.

Absolutely agree... seriously, I wish I had the same feeling as you... if I turned Lloyd into Hurn/Witherden, that money would help so much on another line!

[ubeaut]

Just finding it hard to see why the love of Laird is dying.  Looking at last 4 years

Because people seem to think the new kick out rule is going to ruin him? The short kick is dead they think? It's the only logical explanation

Hasn't left my side once

I can’t speak for anyone else... I don’t have Laird in my side and here’s my reasoning (it’s got nothing to do with thinking the short kick is dead):

- I believe Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, & Simpson will be the top 4 highest averaging defenders come season’s end
- I’m starting 2 of them NOW
- I’ll have all four of them in my completed team
- I’m going with Lloyd & Sicily on the off-off chance the new kick in rules benefit them, price-wise and points-wise (this is speculative, I know, but the choice is already marginal; put it this way, I absolutely don’t believe Lloyd or Sicily will drop in price)
- Laird will be my first upgrade target on the D line. I’m confident I’ll get him for pretty much exactly what he’s priced at now, no more and no less.
- If these four players were the same age, I’d be starting with Sicily & Simpson, as I think they have the greatest capacity to benefit from the rules (Simpson’s age concerns me, even though he’s the Keith Richards of footy and will still be playing after the other three have retired)

But it’s so marginal... and because it’s so marginal it’s remarkable that Laird has never been in my team: Lloyd; Sicily; Williams; Smith; Rookie; Rookie ... it’s the one line I haven’t tinkered with.

Should the JLT throw up a couple of gremlins I’d in a flash turn Lloyd & Sicily into Laird & Simpson and have the same level of confidence.

The choices between these four aren’t going to win or lose the game.

It’s the Whitfield, Ryan, Witherden etc. players that are going to define seasons.

Have a look at Lloyd's start to last season. What's to say he won't start off slow again? Of all the players not named Gawn, Grundy, Cripps or Macrae I think he's most likely to drop in price. He has to maintain or better 112 average. As a defender. With a 87 as previous high. That's insane. Sicily hasn't got an extensive scoring history let alone a consistent one. Big call to say they won't drop in price.

[Keeper27]

Excellent post.

cheers

History would suggest you will be way off the mark.

Who were the 3, 3 and 4 players who backed it up?

I'm curious as to whether their ability to back it up was obvious, and can be correlated to last years Top 5

the only constant is Simmo  :) (2015 - his AVG put him top 10 not overall)

Shaw, enright, Rance/ Docherty, Simmo, Rance/Simmo, McGovern, Tuohy, Laird

[Keeper27]

if I turned Lloyd into Hurn/Witherden, that money would help so much on another line!

i have and it's pretty tempting to have 5 premiums in the mids LOL

[Colley Dogs]

Just finding it hard to see why the love of Laird is dying.  Looking at last 4 years

Because people seem to think the new kick out rule is going to ruin him? The short kick is dead they think? It's the only logical explanation

Hasn't left my side once

I can’t speak for anyone else... I don’t have Laird in my side and here’s my reasoning (it’s got nothing to do with thinking the short kick is dead):

- I believe Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, & Simpson will be the top 4 highest averaging defenders come season’s end
- I’m starting 2 of them NOW
- I’ll have all four of them in my completed team
- I’m going with Lloyd & Sicily on the off-off chance the new kick in rules benefit them, price-wise and points-wise (this is speculative, I know, but the choice is already marginal; put it this way, I absolutely don’t believe Lloyd or Sicily will drop in price)
- Laird will be my first upgrade target on the D line. I’m confident I’ll get him for pretty much exactly what he’s priced at now, no more and no less.
- If these four players were the same age, I’d be starting with Sicily & Simpson, as I think they have the greatest capacity to benefit from the rules (Simpson’s age concerns me, even though he’s the Keith Richards of footy and will still be playing after the other three have retired)

But it’s so marginal... and because it’s so marginal it’s remarkable that Laird has never been in my team: Lloyd; Sicily; Williams; Smith; Rookie; Rookie ... it’s the one line I haven’t tinkered with.

Should the JLT throw up a couple of gremlins I’d in a flash turn Lloyd & Sicily into Laird & Simpson and have the same level of confidence.

The choices between these four aren’t going to win or lose the game.

It’s the Whitfield, Ryan, Witherden etc. players that are going to define seasons.

Have a look at Lloyd's start to last season. What's to say he won't start off slow again? Of all the players not named Gawn, Grundy, Cripps or Macrae I think he's most likely to drop in price. He has to maintain or better 112 average. As a defender. With a 87 as previous high. That's insane. Sicily hasn't got an extensive scoring history let alone a consistent one. Big call to say they won't drop in price.

Last season didn’t have the new rules for kick-ins. This is my point. Without these rules there’s no chance I’d be investing so much in my first two defenders.

Sicily has only played one full season as a defender (with injury), so your point regarding him is mute.

Look, I can see I’m alone on this... that’s fine, we can agree to disagree.

But we’ve never had a rule change like this... a real-world footy rule that could see a defender or two averaging in line with the ultra premium mids.

If I’m wrong... I have two players who I’m sure most would agree are going to finish as top six defenders (for maybe 100k more than most are spending on their first two defenders). Not a big risk in the scheme of things.

If I’m right though...

Most likely I’m going to break even.

It’s a low-risk high-reward play in my eyes.

[Mat0369]

Who were the 3, 3 and 4 players who backed it up?

I'm curious as to whether their ability to back it up was obvious, and can be correlated to last years Top 5

Doc, Simmo and Laird would have to be three of those guys.

Thing is you want guys down back that are consistent. Backs and rucks have to be the choppiest lines in SC. At least with mids you have had guys like Pendles, Swan, Gaz, Fyfe, Danger back up their monster years and be worth every penny.

Rucks you have to go back to the Cox/Sandi days to find guys that back it up when they have been high priced rucks.

Forwards you've generally had premiums like Buddy, Gray, Rocky, Martin, Macrae, NRoo and Stevie J that were top priced premiums with consistent years that you felt confident starting.

Down back it feels like recently the guys that have followed that trend are Simmo, Laird and Doc (minus now missing two seasons back to back). It feels like you have to go back to Lids, BJ, Scotland days. Maybe guys like Taylor Adams and Joey can also fit into this category more recently but in Adams case he was a one hit wonder. There always appear to be value guys that jump up to premium status. Looking at the top 10 from last year I see the following

Lloyd - Was high 400's (maybe low 500's) and a lot of people viewed him as a speculative pick. Was under priced due to the injury games
Laird - Got what you paid for
Simmo - Got what you paid for
Sicily - Mid price option that turned into top 5 on points alone. Missed a ton of games which would have hurt those that had him
Whitfield - Was mid eligible only
Hurn - Would have been a mid 400k speculative pick
Jack Crisp - See Hurn
Howe - Was a premium priced player that missed games and dropped his average
Suckling - Mid price option that missed half the season
Heath Shaw - Improved his average from an awkward price to finish top 10. Was averaging 15 points less than number 4 and 22 points less than number 1.

If I am paying top dollar the only guys I can justify of these options are Laird, Simmo and Whitfield. Whitfield I am still speculative on because pure wings don't tend to average more than 95. The Andrew Gaff seasons are one out of the box.

After pumping him up, there are a couple of reasons I have been toying with taking out Simmo, but if I do he will pump out a 140 odd and I'll instantly regret it.

Newman appears like he is going to slot in nicely at HB and Daisy will play out of the back half again this year. Newman is a lot more capable than the other trash we had running around at HB last year and he and Daisy could average a solid 85-90 each. I don't think that hurts Simmo all that, but I worry we may be worse than last year if that was at all possible. Father time catches up with everyone and while he did have a really good fantasy year there were signs for Simmo last year. I'm thinking it might be better to wait and see.

[Keeper27]

Who were the 3, 3 and 4 players who backed it up?

I'm curious as to whether their ability to back it up was obvious, and can be correlated to last years Top 5

Doc, Simmo and Laird would have to be three of those guys.

Who were the 3, 3 and 4 players who backed it up?

I'm curious as to whether their ability to back it up was obvious, and can be correlated to last years Top 5

the only constant is Simmo  :) (2015 - his AVG put him top 10 not overall)

Shaw, enright, Rance/ Docherty, Simmo, Rance/Simmo, McGovern, Tuohy, Laird

Close.

If I am paying top dollar the only guys I can justify of these options are Laird, Simmo and Whitfield.

Simmo i agree with, just so consistent.
the other we dont know.. just gotta wait and see

[kilbluff1985]

thoughts on B Smith?

Scott Camporeale was on the radio talking about how they're very happy with him taking kickins with his long kicks https://twitter.com/1629senSA/status/1096155925407092737

[Keeper27]

thoughts on B Smith?

Scott Camporeale was on the radio talking about how they're very happy with him taking kickins with his long kicks https://twitter.com/1629senSA/status/1096155925407092737

D4 at best

[Ringo]

As I said Earle it is interesting that we are all making assumptions as to who will benefit from the new kick in rules without also considering the effect of the new centre bounce set ups 6-6-6 as I think this will also effect some defenders hence why I will be watching the JLT closely to see the effect of both rules.