2019 Defenders

[quinny88]

Given the rule changes I'm surprised there is no love for Hurn

I think you mean "Premiership Captain Shannon Hurn" but yes I agree mate. Will probably take 95% of our kick ins provided we don't change tactic with the rule changes and give the ball to someone with a bit more pace (Jetta).

To be honest, he's just not a very attractive pick for no reason other than he's 32 this season and coming off a career year. I don't mind him but you're really paying top dollar for him

I agree about paying top dollar off a career best year but at this stage I have Hurn with a view to him being my eventual D6. At worst he goes 85ish. Not great but not the end of the world. Pros are he is durable & if I was the West Coast I would be adding some new plays to the playbook based on Hurn & the new kick in rules. With a run up start he can open up large areas past the 50m arc. In an ideal world (dreaming) he adds 12 to his stats (one kick per quarter) but even if he can add 1/2 that he goes low 100s. Hopefully I am not saying p*** off Jetta too often.

I'd be interested to know how often Hurn kicks long from a kick in. I don't feel like he played on too often but was more used as the safe kick in. Might not be the type to move out of the square too often reguardless of the rules but I could be wrong.

According to afl.com Hurn played on more than anyone in the comp. So he was already getting a lot of points from playing on. He may now play on even more, thus scoring more, but perhaps not as much as someone who also takes a lot of kick ins but didn't play on very often

Him and WitherGOAT both played on around 52% of the time iirc (could be wrong). It's in that kick-in stats article.

Well there goes my theory out the door haha

[GoLions]

Given the rule changes I'm surprised there is no love for Hurn

I think you mean "Premiership Captain Shannon Hurn" but yes I agree mate. Will probably take 95% of our kick ins provided we don't change tactic with the rule changes and give the ball to someone with a bit more pace (Jetta).

To be honest, he's just not a very attractive pick for no reason other than he's 32 this season and coming off a career year. I don't mind him but you're really paying top dollar for him

I agree about paying top dollar off a career best year but at this stage I have Hurn with a view to him being my eventual D6. At worst he goes 85ish. Not great but not the end of the world. Pros are he is durable & if I was the West Coast I would be adding some new plays to the playbook based on Hurn & the new kick in rules. With a run up start he can open up large areas past the 50m arc. In an ideal world (dreaming) he adds 12 to his stats (one kick per quarter) but even if he can add 1/2 that he goes low 100s. Hopefully I am not saying p*** off Jetta too often.

I'd be interested to know how often Hurn kicks long from a kick in. I don't feel like he played on too often but was more used as the safe kick in. Might not be the type to move out of the square too often reguardless of the rules but I could be wrong.

According to afl.com Hurn played on more than anyone in the comp. So he was already getting a lot of points from playing on. He may now play on even more, thus scoring more, but perhaps not as much as someone who also takes a lot of kick ins but didn't play on very often

Him and WitherGOAT both played on around 52% of the time iirc (could be wrong). It's in that kick-in stats article.

Well there goes my theory out the door haha

Well, they still took the most amount of kick-ins so he should see a nice boost regardless aha

[RaisyDaisy]

It was just over 41% for Hurn and Witherden, so if they're already playing on that much and averaging what they did I'm not sure they're going to go much higher

I'd be looking at guys who took a lot of kick ins but didn't play on as much - they're the guys with higher scope

[GoLions]

It was just over 41% for Hurn and Witherden, so if they're already playing on that much and averaging what they did I'm not sure they're going to go much higher

I'd be looking at guys who took a lot of kick ins but didn't play on as much - they're the guys with higher scope

I think Lloyd and Ryan are the only players in that category from what i can recall. Even with 40% playing on, due to the number of kick-ins they take, Hurn and Withers should still see a very nice increase in points compared to most others.

[RaisyDaisy]

It was just over 41% for Hurn and Witherden, so if they're already playing on that much and averaging what they did I'm not sure they're going to go much higher

I'd be looking at guys who took a lot of kick ins but didn't play on as much - they're the guys with higher scope

I think Lloyd and Ryan are the only players in that category from what i can recall. Even with 40% playing on, due to the number of kick-ins they take, Hurn and Withers should still see a very nice increase in points compared to most others.

I'm not sure they will

They kicked to themselves and played on approx 41% of the time, which means they were already getting SC stats for that

Now, in order for them to actually increase their points from this new rule they'd have to increase the amount of times they play on now and kick outside the square, which means they'd have go from 41% to an even higher number. Sure it might happen, but it won't be as much of a difference as opposed to a guy who was only kicking to himself and playing on say 20% of the time because if he now ramps that up to 40-50% it's a big difference and more points, but Hurn/Withers % increase won't be as much therefor not as much extra points

[elephants]

Playing devils advocate here re the new kick in rules. If everyone is expecting players to play on and go for the long bomb won’t teams just set up a deep defensive zone to protect against this and probably be happy to give away the short chip kick and then try and trap the defensive team inside the forward half. Maybe long bombs/play ons will decrease and short kicks will increase.....

There's just so many ways this could go. I developed a theory last night that had Laird dropping off 10 points plus! At this stage we just have to accept that we have NFI and it''ll be very interesting to see if coaches all run a similar plan or if they have their own way of exploiting the rules

[RaisyDaisy]

Playing devils advocate here re the new kick in rules. If everyone is expecting players to play on and go for the long bomb won’t teams just set up a deep defensive zone to protect against this and probably be happy to give away the short chip kick and then try and trap the defensive team inside the forward half. Maybe long bombs/play ons will decrease and short kicks will increase.....

There's just so many ways this could go. I developed a theory last night that had Laird dropping off 10 points plus! At this stage we just have to accept that we have NFI and it''ll be very interesting to see if coaches all run a similar plan or if they have their own way of exploiting the rules

Shouldn't effect Laird in a negative way at all - he only had 19 kick outs for the entire year, so if anything he might take more kick outs which will only help his scoring even more

[GoLions]

It was just over 41% for Hurn and Witherden, so if they're already playing on that much and averaging what they did I'm not sure they're going to go much higher

I'd be looking at guys who took a lot of kick ins but didn't play on as much - they're the guys with higher scope

I think Lloyd and Ryan are the only players in that category from what i can recall. Even with 40% playing on, due to the number of kick-ins they take, Hurn and Withers should still see a very nice increase in points compared to most others.

I'm not sure they will

They kicked to themselves and played on approx 41% of the time, which means they were already getting SC stats for that

Now, in order for them to actually increase their points from this new rule they'd have to increase the amount of times they play on now and kick outside the square, which means they'd have go from 41% to an even higher number. Sure it might happen, but it won't be as much of a difference as opposed to a guy who was only kicking to himself and playing on say 20% of the time because if he now ramps that up to 40-50% it's a big difference and more points, but Hurn/Withers % increase won't be as much therefor not as much extra points

I prefer to look at it from the pov of # of times they didnt play on. For Hurn and Withers its around 70, whereas for some other players who dont play on as much (excluding Lloyd and Ryan), even if only going at say 20%, it'd probably be around that 70 mark again, if that. I can easily see guys like Hurn and Withers ramping it up to over 60% played on, because why wouldn't you. Can gain an extra 10m on the kickouts most of the time. And that 20% increase would be an extra 25 or so for the year, whereas a 30% increase (for example) for some of these other players would basically be the same increase in total extra play-ons from kick-ins.

[Ringo]

Just remember this year Rich will be playing up the field and he took a number of kick ins (although not kicking to himself)  and these will fall back to Withers especially with Gardiners injury as well. Reason why I have Withers in my team at the moment.

[elephants]

Playing devils advocate here re the new kick in rules. If everyone is expecting players to play on and go for the long bomb won’t teams just set up a deep defensive zone to protect against this and probably be happy to give away the short chip kick and then try and trap the defensive team inside the forward half. Maybe long bombs/play ons will decrease and short kicks will increase.....

There's just so many ways this could go. I developed a theory last night that had Laird dropping off 10 points plus! At this stage we just have to accept that we have NFI and it''ll be very interesting to see if coaches all run a similar plan or if they have their own way of exploiting the rules

Shouldn't effect Laird in a negative way at all - he only had 19 kick outs for the entire year, so if anything he might take more kick outs which will only help his scoring even more

Another way to look at it - Laird only took 19 kickouts and now add in Brodie Smith who generally takes a good cut. Even less of the pie to go around! That and *if* teams just use that extra 10m to bomb long theres a lot less chipping around kick/mark that Laird thrived on last year. As I said before though it is an if, nobody knows how the coaches will run it

[duffercoat]

Playing devils advocate here re the new kick in rules. If everyone is expecting players to play on and go for the long bomb won’t teams just set up a deep defensive zone to protect against this and probably be happy to give away the short chip kick and then try and trap the defensive team inside the forward half. Maybe long bombs/play ons will decrease and short kicks will increase.....

There's just so many ways this could go. I developed a theory last night that had Laird dropping off 10 points plus! At this stage we just have to accept that we have NFI and it''ll be very interesting to see if coaches all run a similar plan or if they have their own way of exploiting the rules

Shouldn't effect Laird in a negative way at all - he only had 19 kick outs for the entire year, so if anything he might take more kick outs which will only help his scoring even more

How many kick ins did he mark though? If the kick ins used to be short to Laird in the pocket then he could be in line to lose a significant number of points overall.

[RaisyDaisy]

I think people are grossly overestimating how much this is going to actually change the game

Just because the square is longer, and the player kicking in doesn't have to kick it to himself first, doesn't mean all of a sudden now they are always going to kick long

The short kick will still be used a lot, surely?

[shaker]

I think people are grossly overestimating how much this is going to actually change the game

Just because the square is longer, and the player kicking in doesn't have to kick it to himself first, doesn't mean all of a sudden now they are always going to kick long

The short kick will still be used a lot, surely?

Of course the quick kick from the square that still scores 0 will still be used if a team mate has got into space , remember coaches and players are not thinking about SC

[quinny88]

I think people are grossly overestimating how much this is going to actually change the game

Just because the square is longer, and the player kicking in doesn't have to kick it to himself first, doesn't mean all of a sudden now they are always going to kick long

The short kick will still be used a lot, surely?

The square isn't longer though. The man on the mark just has to be further back which will mean the square is basically irrelevant. Gives them more space to move out of the square forward or either side even if they are only going Short. Going to be interesting

[HappyDEZ]

I think people are grossly overestimating how much this is going to actually change the game

Just because the square is longer, and the player kicking in doesn't have to kick it to himself first, doesn't mean all of a sudden now they are always going to kick long

The short kick will still be used a lot, surely?

The square isn't longer though. The man on the mark just has to be further back which will mean the square is basically irrelevant. Gives them more space to move out of the square forward or either side even if they are only going Short. Going to be interesting

True enough but every time a player kicks long to the flank they go within a few inches of the goal square line. Nearly 100% of those kicks will now take place outside of the goal square.