2019 Defenders

[Big Mac]

Love Sicily. Just keep going back to, how many games will he play.

Hence why I’m looking at Simmo. No chance of slowing down and no Doc, should play 22 games. Missed 6 games in 13 years.

I’m on the same page either Sicily or Simmo over laird for me currently.

They’re both good picks but why are you keen on them over Laird?

[ben_020285]

Love Sicily. Just keep going back to, how many games will he play.

Hence why I’m looking at Simmo. No chance of slowing down and no Doc, should play 22 games. Missed 6 games in 13 years.

Yes Simmo, the 34 year old who turns 35 in May, has no chance of slowing down. Absolutely no chance at all.

[RaisyDaisy]

Love Sicily. Just keep going back to, how many games will he play.

Hence why I’m looking at Simmo. No chance of slowing down and no Doc, should play 22 games. Missed 6 games in 13 years.

I’m on the same page either Sicily or Simmo over laird for me currently.

They’re both good picks but why are you keen on them over Laird?

Lloyd, Laird, Sicily and Simmo. You can easily make a case to pick any of them. I think it just comes down to personal preference or flipping a coin, because other than a Sicily dummy spit there is nothing splitting those 4 in terms of durability, scoring potential etc. I think Simmo will be the lowest of the 4 in scoring though, but there won't be a huge amount in it

[Ringo]

Just finding it hard to see why the love of Laird is dying.  Looking at last 4 years

Laird
2015 - 93.8 (21 games)
2016 - 96.8 (17 games)
2017 - 100.2 (22 games)
2018 - 108.2 (21 games)

Simpson
2015 - 92.7 (20 games)
2016 - 106.4 (22 games)
2017 - 93.9 (22 games)
2018 - 105. (21 games)

Sicily
2015 - 59 (3 games)
2016 - 63.6 (21 games)
2017 - 73.3 (19 games)
2018 - 105.1 (14 games)

Can see the point of tossing up between Laird and Simpson although Simpson at 10 years older is the drawback.  Sicily is 1 year younger than Laird but yet to play full season due to suspensions and injuries,

Just Personal but may rankings would be Laird, Simpson and Sicily.

Will be monitoring JLT though to see what the effect of the 6-6-6 setup at centre bounces has.

[RaisyDaisy]

Just finding it hard to see why the love of Laird is dying.  Looking at last 4 years

Because people seem to think the new kick out rule is going to ruin him? The short kick is dead they think? It's the only logical explanation

Hasn't left my side once

[Ringo]

Just finding it hard to see why the love of Laird is dying.  Looking at last 4 years

Because people seem to think the new kick out rule is going to ruin him? The short kick is dead they think? It's the only logical explanation

Hasn't left my side once

Laird has been in my side since day 1 as well.  Maybe new rules will effect him but it is a wait and see in JLT as it will have to be weighed up against centre bounce structures.  One of the reason I will be watching JLT closely is if this set up increases scoring then need to watch defenders closely. Also as you said the new kick in rule as well. So we are dealing with guesswork at the moment until we see the new rules in practice. It has opened yup in a couple of the AFLW games I have watched.

[ubeaut]

Anyone else questioning spending 570 - 600k on the top 4 defenders? It's usually 550k max we spend on that line, and it's hard to justify when players like Dusty/Crouch/Merrett are cheaper. I know they outscored these guys last year, hence the prices, but injury played a part in that.

What are the chances of backing up 112,108,105 averages?
Lloyd at 112 especially, given previous high of 87.
Sicily I enjoyed having from the start, but he was over 100k cheaper. There are question marks like suspension/injury risks, more attention from opposition, affect of new zoning rules. Like Lloyd it was his only premo year.
Simpson is durable as hell, but usually goes at 95 max. Often has an off game or two to enable a cheaper pick up later on. How long can he defy age? Will Newman steal 5 - 10 points a game?
Laird seems the "safest" option given scoring history, but 108 is hard to back up for a non midfielder.
If you spend this much on a midfield pick, you want 105 minimum, and bank on them being very likely to go 110-115. Can we say that for Lloyd, Laird ,Simmo, Sicily?
So it should apply to any line, even though we expect defenders to score less and are happy with 95+, 600k is 600k.
Given how hard it is to build a well balanced side with Danger, Cripps, Gawn, Grundy, Macrae so expensive, I think only 1 of the top 4 defenders is the go, or even 0.
I see value in Williams, Whitfield, Witherden or maybe even Mills/Newman pending their roles.
Bottom line is if I'm spending 570 - 600k I want 105+ no matter what line it's on.

[RaisyDaisy]

Anyone else questioning spending 570 - 600k on the top 4 defenders? It's usually 550k max we spend on that line, and it's hard to justify when players like Dusty/Crouch/Merrett are cheaper. I know they outscored these guys last year, hence the prices, but injury played a part in that.

What are the chances of backing up 112,108,105 averages?
Lloyd at 112 especially, given previous high of 87.
Sicily I enjoyed having from the start, but he was over 100k cheaper. There are question marks like suspension/injury risks, more attention from opposition, affect of new zoning rules. Like Lloyd it was his only premo year.
Simpson is durable as hell, but usually goes at 95 max. Often has an off game or two to enable a cheaper pick up later on. How long can he defy age? Will Newman steal 5 - 10 points a game?
Laird seems the "safest" option given scoring history, but 108 is hard to back up for a non midfielder.
If you spend this much on a midfield pick, you want 105 minimum, and bank on them being very likely to go 110-115. Can we say that for Lloyd, Laird ,Simmo, Sicily?
So it should apply to any line, even though we expect defenders to score less and are happy with 95+, 600k is 600k.
Given how hard it is to build a well balanced side with Danger, Cripps, Gawn, Grundy, Macrae so expensive, I think only 1 of the top 4 defenders is the go, or even 0.
I see value in Williams, Whitfield, Witherden or maybe even Mills/Newman pending their roles.
Bottom line is if I'm spending 570 - 600k I want 105+ no matter what line it's on.

I get what you're saying re spending that much, but for me the price is somewhat secondary

When I pick prems to start, I am picking guys who I think will finish the year as the highest on that line - that's the goal for me, and price is secondary

If I was to start Whitfield, Witherden, Williams (which isn't horrible) then what happens if the 4 expensive guys all go 100+ and remain the top defenders of the year? It will be hard for me to get them, and I'll be stuck with the second tier guys

It's the same with Rucks etc too. I don't care if they drop in value and I could have got them cheaper later, because I know how hard it is to actually get them, and when your priority is getting rookies off field, dealing with injuries etc it's near impossible to fund getting the big guys, so I just start the guys I think will be the best, and their price is secondary to that

Just my approach of course - I'm sure others are different

[Pokerface]

Anyone else questioning spending 570 - 600k on the top 4 defenders? It's usually 550k max we spend on that line, and it's hard to justify when players like Dusty/Crouch/Merrett are cheaper. I know they outscored these guys last year, hence the prices, but injury played a part in that.

What are the chances of backing up 112,108,105 averages?
Lloyd at 112 especially, given previous high of 87.
Sicily I enjoyed having from the start, but he was over 100k cheaper. There are question marks like suspension/injury risks, more attention from opposition, affect of new zoning rules. Like Lloyd it was his only premo year.
Simpson is durable as hell, but usually goes at 95 max. Often has an off game or two to enable a cheaper pick up later on. How long can he defy age? Will Newman steal 5 - 10 points a game?
Laird seems the "safest" option given scoring history, but 108 is hard to back up for a non midfielder.
If you spend this much on a midfield pick, you want 105 minimum, and bank on them being very likely to go 110-115. Can we say that for Lloyd, Laird ,Simmo, Sicily?
So it should apply to any line, even though we expect defenders to score less and are happy with 95+, 600k is 600k.
Given how hard it is to build a well balanced side with Danger, Cripps, Gawn, Grundy, Macrae so expensive, I think only 1 of the top 4 defenders is the go, or even 0.
I see value in Williams, Whitfield, Witherden or maybe even Mills/Newman pending their roles.
Bottom line is if I'm spending 570 - 600k I want 105+ no matter what line it's on.

I get what you're saying re spending that much, but for me the price is somewhat secondary

When I pick prems to start, I am picking guys who I think will finish the year as the highest on that line - that's the goal for me, and price is secondary

If I was to start Whitfield, Witherden, Williams (which isn't horrible) then what happens if the 4 expensive guys all go 100+ and remain the top defenders of the year? It will be hard for me to get them, and I'll be stuck with the second tier guys

It's the same with Rucks etc too. I don't care if they drop in value and I could have got them cheaper later, because I know how hard it is to actually get them, and when your priority is getting rookies off field, dealing with injuries etc it's near impossible to fund getting the big guys, so I just start the guys I think will be the best, and their price is secondary to that

Just my approach of course - I'm sure others are different

I disagree - I think your initial team is all about finding value - not necessarily needing the top scoring guys. The famous example was Impromptu starting without Goddard in the backline the year he won, while we all spent 600k on him. I think Dimmawits did something similar missing one of the most popular guys (can't remember who).

[RaisyDaisy]

I disagree - I think your initial team is all about finding value - not necessarily needing the top scoring guys. The famous example was Impromptu starting without Goddard in the backline the year he won, while we all spent 600k on him. I think Dimmawits did something similar missing one of the most popular guys (can't remember who).

I'd be pretty confident that they won because of the trading they did throughout the year, combined with good luck

Finding value is super important - but I think value is picking up guys with a proven track record, who for whatever reason were down last year. Eg/ Start Zerrett over Oliver, or Crouch over Neale.

You need to start guys who you think will be the top scoring guys. If you just focus on "value" everywhere, then you're either going to miss out on too many top end guys, or burn too many trades sideways trading trying to catch up

Guys like Witherden etc are not finding value - you're hoping they can breakout to that next level. Simmo might cost 100k more, but you know what you're getting

[Colley Dogs]

Just finding it hard to see why the love of Laird is dying.  Looking at last 4 years

Because people seem to think the new kick out rule is going to ruin him? The short kick is dead they think? It's the only logical explanation

Hasn't left my side once

I can’t speak for anyone else... I don’t have Laird in my side and here’s my reasoning (it’s got nothing to do with thinking the short kick is dead):

- I believe Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, & Simpson will be the top 4 highest averaging defenders come season’s end
- I’m starting 2 of them NOW
- I’ll have all four of them in my completed team
- I’m going with Lloyd & Sicily on the off-off chance the new kick in rules benefit them, price-wise and points-wise (this is speculative, I know, but the choice is already marginal; put it this way, I absolutely don’t believe Lloyd or Sicily will drop in price)
- Laird will be my first upgrade target on the D line. I’m confident I’ll get him for pretty much exactly what he’s priced at now, no more and no less.
- If these four players were the same age, I’d be starting with Sicily & Simpson, as I think they have the greatest capacity to benefit from the rules (Simpson’s age concerns me, even though he’s the Keith Richards of footy and will still be playing after the other three have retired)

But it’s so marginal... and because it’s so marginal it’s remarkable that Laird has never been in my team: Lloyd; Sicily; Williams; Smith; Rookie; Rookie ... it’s the one line I haven’t tinkered with.

Should the JLT throw up a couple of gremlins I’d in a flash turn Lloyd & Sicily into Laird & Simpson and have the same level of confidence.

The choices between these four aren’t going to win or lose the game.

It’s the Whitfield, Ryan, Witherden etc. players that are going to define seasons.

[Keeper27]

When I pick prems to start, I am picking guys who I think will finish the year as the highest on that line - that's the goal for me, and price is secondary

I understand the need for some to jump on high priced defenders (Lloyd/Laird/Sicily) but how many Top 10 defenders from previous seasons actually backed up and went Top 10 again??

2015 > 2016 (3)
2016 > 2017 (3)
2017 > 2018 (4)
2018 > 2019 ??

who says Lloyd/Laird/Sicily will be top 10? especially now with the new kick in rules wouldn't looking at guys like Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short be the better option?? save money and possibly close the gap on points?

[ben_020285]

When I pick prems to start, I am picking guys who I think will finish the year as the highest on that line - that's the goal for me, and price is secondary

I understand the need for some to jump on high priced defenders (Lloyd/Laird/Sicily) but how many Top 10 defenders from previous seasons actually backed up and went Top 10 again??

2015 > 2016 (3)
2016 > 2017 (3)
2017 > 2018 (4)
2018 > 2019 ??

who says Lloyd/Laird/Sicily will be top 10? especially now with the new kick in rules wouldn't looking at guys like Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short be the better option?? save money and possibly close the gap on points?

Excellent post.

[Colley Dogs]

When I pick prems to start, I am picking guys who I think will finish the year as the highest on that line - that's the goal for me, and price is secondary

I understand the need for some to jump on high priced defenders (Lloyd/Laird/Sicily) but how many Top 10 defenders from previous seasons actually backed up and went Top 10 again??

2015 > 2016 (3)
2016 > 2017 (3)
2017 > 2018 (4)
2018 > 2019 ??

who says Lloyd/Laird/Sicily will be top 10? especially now with the new kick in rules wouldn't looking at guys like Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short be the better option?? save money and possibly close the gap on points?

If Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short benefit from the new kick-in rules, it stands to reason that so would Lloyd/Sicily/Simpson. Yes, the value defenders may see an increase in points, but then so too would the ultra premiums.

I predict Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, and Simpson will be the top averaging defenders at the end of the season.

But for the reason you’ve outlined, I’m not starting Laird (he’ll be my first upgrade target). I want to see the impact of the new rules on scoring before I bring him in. I expect no impact, but playing it ultra safe.

I’m guessing not, but this is the occasion we may see a defender or two with averages to compare with the top midfielders. If so, it won’t be Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short.

[ben_020285]

When I pick prems to start, I am picking guys who I think will finish the year as the highest on that line - that's the goal for me, and price is secondary

I understand the need for some to jump on high priced defenders (Lloyd/Laird/Sicily) but how many Top 10 defenders from previous seasons actually backed up and went Top 10 again??

2015 > 2016 (3)
2016 > 2017 (3)
2017 > 2018 (4)
2018 > 2019 ??

who says Lloyd/Laird/Sicily will be top 10? especially now with the new kick in rules wouldn't looking at guys like Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short be the better option?? save money and possibly close the gap on points?

If Hurn/Witherden/Ryan/Short benefit from the new kick-in rules, it stands to reason that so would Lloyd/Sicily/Simpson. Yes, the value defenders may see an increase in points, but then so too would the ultra premiums.

I predict Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, and Simpson will be the top averaging defenders at the end of the season.

But for the reason you’ve outlined, I’m not starting Laird (I’m making him my first upgrade target). I want to see the impact of the new rules on scoring before I bring in Laird. I expect no impact, but playing it ultra safe.

So you think the exact same top four defenders from last season will be exactly the same this season too.

History would suggest you will be way off the mark.