The Process

Started by Mat0369, January 27, 2019, 06:38:47 PM

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Mat0369

So I have been mucking around with a couple of structures. Mitchell and Doc going down has thrown me into a bit of disarray as I had those two along with Laird and Danger as my only real locks.

I'm finding there are a lot of guys at the same price range that I'm trying to separate but can't. There are also a lot of guys that could take the next step and push out close to a premium production at a nice discount price. The team below is loaded up with those guys with quite a few risk/reward prospects

Laird, Blakely, Mills, Smith, Roberton, Williamson, Collins, Wigg
Oliver, Fyfe, Kelly, Sloane, Zorko, Walsh, Stocker, Ling, Collier-Dawkins, Smith, West
Gawn, Fort, Clarke
Danger, Menegola, Heeney, Acres, Setterfield, Corbett, Stengle, McAdam

If Fort is named round 1 I think I'll take the risk of the rookie R2. It opens up a lot of different options and premium rucks rarely repeat. Forwards I like Acres and Mengola.

Mids and backs are where I have picked the riskiest options. Sloane and Zorko would need to bounce back to being 110 ppg guys if they are to pay off. Mills would need to break out to average 90 and I would need Roberton and Smith to average around 85 to be decent stepping stones.

Not overly sold on this structure, I think I have too many guys that are ok, but not good enough. I quickly made another which involved no midprice options and got this

Laird, Simmo, Blakely, Collins, Logue, Burgess, Hore, Wigg
Cripps, Oliver, Fyfe, Kelly, Neale, Martin, Stocker, Hind, Collier-Dawkins, Bewley, Hill
Gawn, Fort, Random DPP cheap dude with a name  I can't spell
Danger, Hoff, Heeney, Rozee, Setterfield, Corbett, McFadyen, Cavarra

Speculative guys here would be Dustin Martin bouncing back and Hoff maintaining his average. I feel the other guys should all be at least top 10 down back and forward and top 15 in the midfield

Southstorm

Although it does seem like a tall order for all of Smith, Mills & Roberton to pay off in a season, I still reckon the first group looks more reliable than the pure GnR in the second. Particularly down back. Maybe keep one of the aforementioned somehow at D4?

ubeaut

Quote from: Mat0369 on January 27, 2019, 06:38:47 PM
So I have been mucking around with a couple of structures. Mitchell and Doc going down has thrown me into a bit of disarray as I had those two along with Laird and Danger as my only real locks.

I'm finding there are a lot of guys at the same price range that I'm trying to separate but can't. There are also a lot of guys that could take the next step and push out close to a premium production at a nice discount price. The team below is loaded up with those guys with quite a few risk/reward prospects

Laird, Blakely, Mills, Smith, Roberton, Williamson, Collins, Wigg
Oliver, Fyfe, Kelly, Sloane, Zorko, Walsh, Stocker, Ling, Collier-Dawkins, Smith, West
Gawn, Fort, Clarke
Danger, Menegola, Heeney, Acres, Setterfield, Corbett, Stengle, McAdam

If Fort is named round 1 I think I'll take the risk of the rookie R2. It opens up a lot of different options and premium rucks rarely repeat. Forwards I like Acres and Mengola.

Mids and backs are where I have picked the riskiest options. Sloane and Zorko would need to bounce back to being 110 ppg guys if they are to pay off. Mills would need to break out to average 90 and I would need Roberton and Smith to average around 85 to be decent stepping stones.

Not overly sold on this structure, I think I have too many guys that are ok, but not good enough. I quickly made another which involved no midprice options and got this

Laird, Simmo, Blakely, Collins, Logue, Burgess, Hore, Wigg
Cripps, Oliver, Fyfe, Kelly, Neale, Martin, Stocker, Hind, Collier-Dawkins, Bewley, Hill
Gawn, Fort, Random DPP cheap dude with a name  I can't spell
Danger, Hoff, Heeney, Rozee, Setterfield, Corbett, McFadyen, Cavarra

Speculative guys here would be Dustin Martin bouncing back and Hoff maintaining his average. I feel the other guys should all be at least top 10 down back and forward and top 15 in the midfield
Hey mate. I like your 2nd team better. Mostly cos I don't like Sloane, Zorko (both too taggable) or Acres. Also all of Smith, Roberton and Mills is at least one too many mid pricers down back. Don't mind Mills If he gets the mid time and Menegola is a great POD imo.
As for the 2nd team, if going a cheap R2 and Hoff backup, I'd try to fit another fwd, either Greene or a premo priced. If Fort is dropped/rested/injured and Hoff goes to R2 then you are left with 4 on field rookies.
Something else I'm considering myself with that ruck setup is to have a mid/fwd premo in the mids to allow further flexibility. For e.g Hoff to R2, Wingard from mid to fwd via a fwd DPP rookie then play a mid rookie instead who might be scoring well but is stuck on the bench cos u have a deep midfield.
To fit that other fwd in u could go
Kelly > rookie, rookie > Menegola or
Simmo > Williams, rookie > Greene or even
Kelly > Menegola, rookie > Greene if funds allow

Keeper27

deep DEF, good MIDS and strong FWD line... dunno if i could start a rookie in R2, but thats just me.
go with your gut and good luck.


check out and rate MY TEAM, any advice is appreciated and welcome.

Mat0369

Playing around with structures again



My team before I started mucking around with the below




Completely loaded up with all the mid price options I was considering in this team. Probably a couple of others as well




Went mid price crazy in the backs which I am considering actually doing




Something I would have to consider since it looks like Fort is not a viable ruck 2. So take a hit in the midfield to grab Mummy




I picked this team by purely filling it out with the rookies that played well through to Saturday. Then filled it out with the prems I wanted and BPA after that




Complete POD team where everyone is under 10% ownership as of last night (Saturday)

Nige

I think you've got about this the right way.

While the full POD team/kneejerky team at the end probably isn't ultimately viable because guys like Danger etc are more or less must haves, the way you've documented the progression of the team is super cool and explains the process well.

So yeah, assuming you throw in the big dogs where necessary, I think you've set it all up nicely.

Mat0369

That last team was simply to keep an eye on the guys I like with low ownership numbers. 0 chance I go into the season with a team that looks like that, but I could start Menegola and Boak in my forward line, Simmo, Mills, Ridley down back, Sloane, Zorko, Rocky Cousins in my midfield in just about any line up.

Mat0369

Been fluffing around with my team again and don't mind this lineup



Basically with the uncertainty around Roberton, the lack of cheap rucks to fill in for Mummy and the lack of forward rookies I have come up with this lineup. It gives me 11 keepers and 2 stepping stones.

Just a few notes on the main changes from my other lineup

Out: Defender under 500k, Roberton, Mummy, Fyfe and Kelly
In: Scrimshaw, Cripps, Macrae, Grundy and Burgess

Zorko was the other one I was looking at and have been pretty confident on through the pre-season.

I don't mind it, but I haven't really been sold on Cripps/Macrae/Grundy at their prices. With Kelly/Fyfe not playing a single JLT game I don't think I can pick them and those two are the obvious standouts based on last year


  • Macrae is super expensive and needs to back up an unreal season. It just feels like he will throw up a stinker and see that price dip or he reverts back to his previous years averages
  • Cripps scores were probably helped by the fact our midfield is awful. No one to steal points, if he doesn't get the ball no one else was etc. I think we have some better depth to help him out and while we will still rely on him, I can't see him averaging 120.
  • Last year was the first time Cripps played 22 games. He normally picks up an injury due to his contested bash and crash style of play.
  • Top rucks tend not to back it up. History tells us that at least one of the top two guys at the position tends to flame out. Picking both Grundy and Gawn could backfire really easily and you're forking out an insane amount of cash to do it

If Zac Clarke lines up round 1 I'd be tempted to grab Mummy. I'm also tempted to downgrade one of(or both) of Macrae/Cripps to a Neale/Zorko/Martin type mid. It gives me the same amount of keepers but gives me an extra stepping stone which may help out if the ruck situation is a crash and burn. Really not sold either way and will likely make a gut call Thursday week.

Mat0369

I'm going to start off with saying I hate Thursday night games. The extended benches are going to kill me come R1 and I'm going to get stung. I have pretty much built a team on the guys I have locked and loaded in my team so far.

Laird, Smith, Ridley, Collins, Clark
Oliver, Sloane, Rocky, Cousins, Walsh, Constable, Butters
Gawn, Clarke
Danger, Heeney, Menegola, Boak, Setters, Drew, Balta, Parker

So I have picked 22 of 30 and need to fill out the rest of my team with $2,696,400.

I saw Smith's ownership percentage and that has put me off. I was only considering him as a stepping stone and with Rocky in the same boat I think I might be better off using the cash elsewhere.

Rusty00

Quote from: Mat0369 on March 20, 2019, 08:33:15 PM
I'm going to start off with saying I hate Thursday night games. The extended benches are going to kill me come R1 and I'm going to get stung. I have pretty much built a team on the guys I have locked and loaded in my team so far.

Laird, Smith, Ridley, Collins, Clark
Oliver, Sloane, Rocky, Cousins, Walsh, Constable, Butters
Gawn, Clarke
Danger, Heeney, Menegola, Boak, Setters, Drew, Balta, Parker

So I have picked 22 of 30 and need to fill out the rest of my team with $2,696,400.

I saw Smith's ownership percentage and that has put me off. I was only considering him as a stepping stone and with Rocky in the same boat I think I might be better off using the cash elsewhere.
If you did drop Smith, would you go up or down? Probably have to be up wouldn’t it, or otherwise you’ll be very light on in defence?

Mat0369

Quote from: Rusty00 on March 20, 2019, 08:39:55 PM
If you did drop Smith, would you go up or down? Probably have to be up wouldn’t it, or otherwise you’ll be very light on in defence?

No idea. I have a decent chunk of change left over so it could be either.

1 thing I can do (that I'm not overly keen on) is swap Menegola to Greene and pocket another chunk of change. While I know Menegola will finish the year with a 100 average, it looks like he has a couple sub 70 scores in a row followed by a bunch of 120's each year. I've been pretty set on my forward line for 3 weeks or so now, so it's weird that is the line I'm tinkering with.

Mat0369

#11
I'm cutting it close. Still don't have a set structure and avoided guys like Simmo/Newman last night to have more cash to play with tonight.

Structure 1

Laird, Williams, Smith, Ridley, Collins, Clark (Scrimshaw, Hore)
Macrae, Oliver, Fyfe, Sloane, Rocky, Cousins, Walsh, Constable (Butters, Scott, Gibbons)
Gawn, Mummy, Pierce
Danger, Menegola, Heeney, Boak, Setters, Drew, Balta, Parker

80k left over

Number 2

Laird, Shaw, Smith, Ridley, Collins, Clark (Duursma, Hore)
Macrae, Oliver, Fyfe, Sloane, Rocky, Cousins, Walsh, Constable (Butters, Scott, Gibbons)
Gawn, Mummy, Pierce
Danger, Menegola, Heeney, Boak, Setters, Drew, Balta, Parker

15k left over

Number 3

Witherden, Williams, Smith, Ridley, Collins, Clark (Scrimshaw, Hore)
Neale, Oliver, Fyfe, Sloane, Rocky, Cousins, Walsh, Constable (Butters, Scott, Gibbons)
Gawn, Grundy, Clarke
Danger, Menegola, Heeney, Boak, Setters, Drew, Balta, Parker

$800 left

Number 4

Crisp, Williams, Smith, Ridley, Collins, Clark (Scrimshaw, Hore)
Zorko, Oliver, Fyfe, Sloane, Rocky, Cousins, Walsh, Constable (Butters, Scott, Gibbons)
Gawn, Grundy, Clarke
Danger, Menegola, Heeney, Boak, Setters, Drew, Balta, Parker

23k left

Number 5

Crisp, Witherden, Mills, Ridley, Collins, Clark (Scrimshaw, Hore)
Macrae, Oliver, Fyfe, Sloane, Rocky, Cousins, Walsh, Constable (Butters, Scott, Gibbons)
Gawn, Mummy, Pierce
Danger, Menegola, Heeney, Boak, Setters, Drew, Balta, Parker

4k left over

I'm completely stumped and not really a fan of most of them. Spewing I didn't pick Newman now....

Mat0369

Think I narrowed it down to option 1 or 2. Can probably settle without having to stress what I do tonight. No Crisp or Grundy so should be right.

I thought Crisp's numbers were better than they actually are. They are good for a defender but he will put in some stinkers and drop.

I'm pretty adamant on not starting Grundy and Gawn. I'll go with Gawn for now. I think the Pierce/Mummy combo with extra cash allows me to turn Pierce into Phillips if he gets dropped anyway. It also lets me turn Smith into Newman if Smith flops. Idea is to make as much cash from Pierce as possible and turn him into the cheap DPP guy and upgrade a defender.

Mat0369

After watching Darcy Moore rack up 30 points off 4 kick ins I'm tempted by the following 4 lineups.









Any thoughts would be appreciated. I'm going to sleep on it and have a think

Mat0369

Final team in the end but with Sloane captain