2019 Premium Mids

Started by RaisyDaisy, January 15, 2019, 12:00:05 PM

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_wato

#360
Thing with Dusty is that he didn't have a great year last year yes but played predominately forward due to the Tiges having limited forward options, a lingering injury that you could say he had for most of the year, and his midfield attendances were limited to centre bounces pretty much, the other blokes shouldered the load for him.

A preseason for him to freshen up and get over any nagging injuries, get further help over his mental issues and attempt to get back to his 2017 form. Lynch incoming helps massively too.

in 2015 he was 103DT for 105SC.
in 2016 he was 107DT for 108SC
in 2017 he was 114DT for 120SC

See any tendencies? Better SC numbers than DT and a gradual incline from year to year. Last year was an anomaly even for his standards, read below.

in 2018 he was 93DT for 104SC. A drop of over 20DT from the year before and minimum 10 point drop from his worst average over those 3 years.

Possession numbers declined from 2015/16/17 from 26/31/30 to only 25 last year and marks went down whilst tackles nearly halved.

It is no secret that last year was not his best but so many things went into it. I think we've seen already in JLT where he is playing.

V Hawks he had 30 touches 12 contested, 10 clearances in 65% tog.
V Demons he had 21 touches kicked 2 had 10 contested but gave away 5 free kicks which hurt his score in 64% tog.

78DT and 95DT in both games for a guy who will play 85%+ tog most weeks. That numbers turns into 104DT and 124DT in both games. We know he's generally a better SC player so you're looking at 110 and 130 possibly. Small sample size but his career sample is enough to go on.

So really a 105DT will fetch you a 110SC average at worst. And he's priced at 560k and has only missed 5 games in 9 years so inevitably his average might not be top 3/4 but total points he'll be well up there.

quinny88

Quote from: _wato on March 18, 2019, 10:10:51 PM
Thing with Dusty is that he didn't have a great year last year yes but played predominately forward due to the Tiges having limited forward options, a lingering injury that you could say he had for most of the year, and his midfield attendances were limited to centre bounces pretty much, the other blokes shouldered the load for him.

A preseason for him to freshen up and get over any nagging injuries, get further help over his mental issues and attempt to get back to his 2017 form. Lynch incoming helps massively too.

in 2015 he was 103DT for 105SC.
in 2016 he was 107DT for 108SC
in 2017 he was 114DT for 120SC

See any tendencies? Better SC numbers than DT and a gradual incline from year to year. Last year was an anomaly even for his standards, read below.

in 2018 he was 93DT for 104SC. A drop of over 20DT from the year before and minimum 10 point drop from his worst average over those 3 years.

Possession numbers declined from 2015/16/17 from 26/31/30 to only 25 last year and marks went down whilst tackles nearly halved.

It is no secret that last year was not his best but so many things went into it. I think we've seen already in JLT where he is playing.

V Hawks he had 30 touches 12 contested, 10 clearances in 65% tog.
V Demons he had 21 touches kicked 2 had 10 contested but gave away 5 free kicks which hurt his score in 64% tog.

78DT and 95DT in both games for a guy who will play 85%+ tog most weeks. That numbers turns into 104DT and 124DT in both games. We know he's generally a better SC player so you're looking at 110 and 130 possibly. Small sample size but his career sample is enough to go on.

So really a 105DT will fetch you a 110SC average at worst. And he's priced at 560k and has only missed 5 games in 9 years so inevitably his average might not be top 3/4 but total points he'll be well up there.

Great research and hard to argue! Might have to get him back in my side  ;)

Money Shot

Although Dusty wasn’t my first picked mid, apart from Cripps he is now my second favourite. Could easily be a top 3 mid come seasons end and is very cheap for what he can produce.

eaglesman

Have dropped a premium mid to rookie and upgrade Ridley to laird. And scrimshaw to hurn

_wato

Quote from: eaglesman on March 18, 2019, 11:19:14 PM
Have dropped a premium mid to rookie and upgrade Ridley to laird. And scrimshaw to hurn

Who was the premium mid and who's the rookie mid you're bringing in?

GoLions

Quote from: _wato on March 18, 2019, 11:23:43 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on March 18, 2019, 11:19:14 PM
Have dropped a premium mid to rookie and upgrade Ridley to laird. And scrimshaw to hurn

Who was the premium mid and who's the rookie mid you're bringing in?
Macrae to Gibbons probs the only one to fund those upgrades :p

eaglesman

Quote from: _wato on March 18, 2019, 11:23:43 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on March 18, 2019, 11:19:14 PM
Have dropped a premium mid to rookie and upgrade Ridley to laird. And scrimshaw to hurn

Who was the premium mid and who's the rookie mid you're bringing in?

Oliver for Scott at this stage.
If not named hopefully one of hind or bewley get up.

If Zac Clarke is named will pick him and go I’ll go Cottrell.

If Zac Clarke is not named I’ll go bines and hopefully expensive mid rookie gets up.

If not I’ll
Move Duursma to mids and then hope for scrim/hore or any heart beat

BASICALLY a lot of hope in there haha.

imjusflexin

Debating my M4 spot still.. Don't have enough For Coniglio without losing Gawn... I've gone between Dusty & Crouch but they have their flaws which we all know (For Dusty, forward time.. Crouch - injury risk, low ceiling & reliance on massive disposal counts to score)..

Just now looking at Zach Merrett, it has me tempted... if you take out his first 3 scores which were concussion affected, his season average is just about 108 (would've made him 12th overall last season), and I think everyone can agree 2018 was a down year for him.. He tonned up 15 (!) of the last 19 rounds.. and had less than 30 touches in 8 of those..

Food for thought..

crowls

Quote from: imjusflexin on March 19, 2019, 05:39:05 PM
Debating my M4 spot still.. Don't have enough For Coniglio without losing Gawn... I've gone between Dusty & Crouch but they have their flaws which we all know (For Dusty, forward time.. Crouch - injury risk, low ceiling & reliance on massive disposal counts to score)..

Just now looking at Zach Merrett, it has me tempted... if you take out his first 3 scores which were concussion affected, his season average is just about 108 (would've made him 12th overall last season), and I think everyone can agree 2018 was a down year for him.. He tonned up 15 (!) of the last 19 rounds.. and had less than 30 touches in 8 of those..

Food for thought..
my early teams had merrett in it, however with shiel coming in and uncertainty over impact on merret I dont want to risk it.   I would rather take the guaranteed price increase with B Crouch and upgrade from Crouch if he gets injured.    Hard to see brad avg less than 105 with potential for 110-115.   These are numbers some of us are going to be wearing from our expensive starters.   

TommyC

Quote from: crowls on March 19, 2019, 08:09:14 PM
Quote from: imjusflexin on March 19, 2019, 05:39:05 PM
Debating my M4 spot still.. Don't have enough For Coniglio without losing Gawn... I've gone between Dusty & Crouch but they have their flaws which we all know (For Dusty, forward time.. Crouch - injury risk, low ceiling & reliance on massive disposal counts to score)..

Just now looking at Zach Merrett, it has me tempted... if you take out his first 3 scores which were concussion affected, his season average is just about 108 (would've made him 12th overall last season), and I think everyone can agree 2018 was a down year for him.. He tonned up 15 (!) of the last 19 rounds.. and had less than 30 touches in 8 of those..

Food for thought..
my early teams had merrett in it, however with shiel coming in and uncertainty over impact on merret I dont want to risk it.   I would rather take the guaranteed price increase with B Crouch and upgrade from Crouch if he gets injured.    Hard to see brad avg less than 105 with potential for 110-115.   These are numbers some of us are going to be wearing from our expensive starters.
Said it perfectly, exactly my thoughts

LordSneeze

All depends what you expect. I think he will average 95 and play 18-20 even barring injury. Adelaide will be careful with him given his history. So not worth starting for me.

If he averages 100 he is likely to go up 100k and be an upgrade option, if he averages 105 he becomes a keeper. Any less than 100 and price gains will not cover the cost of the trade plus risk of injury. Purely a personal pick this one.

imjusflexin

Quote from: crowls on March 19, 2019, 08:09:14 PM
Quote from: imjusflexin on March 19, 2019, 05:39:05 PM
Debating my M4 spot still.. Don't have enough For Coniglio without losing Gawn... I've gone between Dusty & Crouch but they have their flaws which we all know (For Dusty, forward time.. Crouch - injury risk, low ceiling & reliance on massive disposal counts to score)..

Just now looking at Zach Merrett, it has me tempted... if you take out his first 3 scores which were concussion affected, his season average is just about 108 (would've made him 12th overall last season), and I think everyone can agree 2018 was a down year for him.. He tonned up 15 (!) of the last 19 rounds.. and had less than 30 touches in 8 of those..

Food for thought..
my early teams had merrett in it, however with shiel coming in and uncertainty over impact on merret I dont want to risk it.   I would rather take the guaranteed price increase with B Crouch and upgrade from Crouch if he gets injured.    Hard to see brad avg less than 105 with potential for 110-115.   These are numbers some of us are going to be wearing from our expensive starters.
Can you explain why you think Brad will avg 105 (or play more than 13 games for that matter) considering his past history?

Quote from: LordSneeze on March 19, 2019, 09:01:59 PM
All depends what you expect. I think he will average 95 and play 18-20 even barring injury. Adelaide will be careful with him given his history. So not worth starting for me.
Seems more likely to me

As for Zach, I understand your points. Think I might take the punt though.

elephants

I wouldn't be worried about Merrett. The ankle was untimely but I maintain he was better off doing it when he did rather than in November where he would miss the bulk of the conditioning work.

Can only see Shiel freeing him up further, reckon Zerrett will be the constant in there farming the ball to the better users.

LaHug

Merrett's a really interesting gamble. If you think the addition of Shiel means no more tags, it's an awesome pick. I can't fit him in right now but I'm a fan of the selection.

If only we could have 15 premium mids...

tkringle

Quote from: LaHug on March 20, 2019, 07:33:27 AM
Merrett's a really interesting gamble. If you think the addition of Shiel means no more tags, it's an awesome pick. I can't fit him in right now but I'm a fan of the selection.

If only we could have 15 premium mids...

I'm still tossing up between Merrett and Martin..