Points of Difference (POD's)

Started by RaisyDaisy, January 14, 2019, 11:06:18 PM

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elephants

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 01, 2019, 10:05:00 AM
Dew on Jack Martin

"He's got really fit, so we'd love to play him in the midfield a fair bit. We know he can play forward and hit the scoreboard, but I think Jack is hungry for a bit more responsibility."

This kid was touted as being one of the greatest players ever when he was a junior. Could he completely break out as a mid this year?

Finally. It's a shame GC will probably only win 2 games this season, probably limits his output. Could definitely push to 90s range which is handy for a fwd!

Holz

I hope i finally stick with my head this year and pick the best POD of all.

Not having any PODs


RaisyDaisy

Quote from: Holz on February 01, 2019, 11:05:35 AM
I hope i finally stick with my head this year and pick the best POD of all.

Not having any PODs

You realise a POD is just based on ownership %? We're not talking breakout contenders

Menegola as a forward is a POD

Yeo/Gaff as mids are POD's

Simpson as a defender is a POD

Nothing wrong with picking them as POD's

Holz

#138
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 01, 2019, 11:09:32 AM
Quote from: Holz on February 01, 2019, 11:05:35 AM
I hope i finally stick with my head this year and pick the best POD of all.

Not having any PODs

You realise a POD is just based on ownership %? We're not talking breakout contenders

Menegola as a forward is a POD

Yeo/Gaff as mids are POD's

Simpson as a defender is a POD

Nothing wrong with picking them as POD's

I do realise that.

I cant see any benefit of those guys over

Heeney
Crouch
LLoyd


just picking guys from the non POD list i think picks a pretty solid team.

Laird Whitfield Lloyd Williams Collins Quaynor
Cripps Fyfe Dmart Kelly Walsh Bewley Hind Valentene
Grundy Gawn
Danger Heeney Smith Greene Setterfield Cavara

every guy on that list is 20% or greater.

Menegola over Heeney is a POD. If Menegola beats Heeney by alot then you lose ground on the 3% of players that have Menegola.

If you have Menegola and Heeney smashes him then you lose ground on 37% of the comp.

I tend to think a good ranking is not done by making unique POD moves like picking the break out. Its more about timing of trades and making money, wasting trades on injuries and underpeformers is much more costly on PODs then it is on common players.

If Dangerfield gets injured on 5 and i need to trade him out i dont really care as basically the whole comp gets hit. If Menegola gets injured on 5 you will fall behind.





RaisyDaisy

You realise Crouch is in fact a POD right?  ;D

But yes, it's all about how you trade and the luck you get that decides your result

Holz

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 01, 2019, 12:33:05 PM
You realise Crouch is in fact a POD right?  ;D

But yes, it's all about how you trade and the luck you get that decides your result

yeah Crouch had abit lower ownership then i expected.

I think he would be not too rare amongst top coaches though.

Kelly would have been a better example.

my point of a POD going down being more of an issue still stands


it really comes down to this are you trying to win or trying not to lose.

I generally think being successful in fantasy is more avoiding injuries and under performing players then making great picks.


Holz

just looked at the ownership numbers from last year at about this time and where named round 1.


Laird, Yeo, Hibberd, Hurley, Lloyd, Simpson   - besides Hurley you did really well with these guys
Fyfe, Dmart, Titch, Cripps Kelly, Congilio  - fyfe kelly got injured but scored well, Dusty a let down but started well

Gawn, NN - Gawn was amazing and NN was reasonable before injury

Heeney Petracca Gray Dahl - this line there was only 4 guys over 15% 2 of which where good, 2 failed hard

if you started with the right 13 very common premos and filled it with rookies you probably would have ranked extremely high.

Laird Yeo Lloyd Simpson
Titch Fyfe Cripps Kelly Conigs
Gawn NN
Heeney Gray

thats 13 out of 18 players that fit into the category of top 6 popular premos over 15% owenrship.



So for this year its

Laird Whitfield Lloyd Williams Sicily Witherden
Cripps Fyfe Dmart Kelly Macrae Oliver
Grundy Gawn
Danger Heeney Smith Wingard






                 

elephants

Salary c(r)ap is all about cookie cutter imo. PODs generally lead to you losing more than you win when a popular player goes awf.

If you are all about PODs play draft where every player is a POD

Nige

Quote from: elephants on February 01, 2019, 02:55:45 PM
Salary c(r)ap is all about cookie cutter imo. PODs generally lead to you losing more than you win when a popular player goes awf.

If you are all about PODs play draft where every player is a POD
Man after my own heart.

AaronKirk

There is a guy at around 470k in 3% of teams mid/fwd who if you take out the game he got injured in last year averaged 92.

One i am watching closely to see how his coach uses him in the practice matches. If more midfield time looms this season he will probably be in my starting forward line.

ubeaut

#145
Quote from: AaronKirk on February 02, 2019, 09:27:25 PM
There is a guy at around 470k in 3% of teams mid/fwd who if you take out the game he got injured in last year averaged 92.

One i am watching closely to see how his coach uses him in the practice matches. If more midfield time looms this season he will probably be in my starting forward line.
Walters? Surely he's a candidate for midfield minutes like he was last year, maybe more so. No Neale no Blakely. I started him last year and was averaging 100 before injury.
Thought he'd be more popular but no one's mentioned him till now. Probably the injury risk, brain fades and Ross factors.

AaronKirk

Quote from: ubeaut on February 02, 2019, 09:41:46 PM
Quote from: AaronKirk on February 02, 2019, 09:27:25 PM
There is a guy at around 470k in 3% of teams mid/fwd who if you take out the game he got injured in last year averaged 92.

One i am watching closely to see how his coach uses him in the practice matches. If more midfield time looms this season he will probably be in my starting forward line.
Walters? Surely he's a candidate for midfield minutes like he was last year, maybe more so. No Neale no Blakely. I started him last year and was averaging 100 before injury.
Thought he'd be more popular but no one's mentioned him till now. Probably the injury risk, brain fades and Ross factors.
Shh... He is one to keep an eye on.

RaisyDaisy

LOL AK, if you're going to be that specific you might as well just name him straight up :P

Never had Walters, never will. Just can't trust him to stay on the park and there isn't enough upside to risk it

elephants

Walters in my team again, like he always is and it has been to my detriment mainly. Such a good player though

AaronKirk

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on February 02, 2019, 11:37:53 PM
LOL AK, if you're going to be that specific you might as well just name him straight up :P

Never had Walters, never will. Just can't trust him to stay on the park and there isn't enough upside to risk it

Brain power not working the best given i've had a sinus infection for over 2 weeks and am on antibiotics.

Freo need some experienced players to take up the slack in the midfield given Neale has left and Blakely is injured. A fit Walters could fill that gap. Could he improve from a 92 average (take out his injured game from last year) to 95 or more? Very possible.