2019, Team to try again!

[duffercoat]

Duffer's Duds version 1 for 2019:

DEF:
Laird, Mills, Williams,
Burton, Collins, Clark
(McKay, Wigg)

MID:
Cripps, Oliver, Fyfe, J Kelly,
Merrett, Walsh, Setterfield, Stocker
(Atley, Valente, Hill)

RUC:
Grundy, Goldstein
(O’Brien)

FWD:
Dangerfield, Heeney, Billings
Rozee, Woodcock, Blakey
(Corbett, McAdam)

I firmly believe that younger players are the best way to be going at the moment with so many budding stars in the 21-26 age bracket. I focused on getting proven elite young mids in the team. Heeney, Billings, Williams and Mills are all expected to fit this mold too despite being listed as forwards or defenders although there is more risk associated with these picks.

Grundy + Danger are too good to pass up. 

Goldstein is the only "old" player in the team. If cheaper rookies are available and I can save another 100k then I'd like for him to become Gawn.

Burton is the one "stepping stone" player in the team. I expect him to average around 75-85 which means he's underpriced by 10 points per game currently. With the changes to the rules to kick ins I expect we'll see a significant change in some players' scoring. Having a stepping stone in the backline should allow me to pick up the best of the improvers with players like Witherden, Wilson, Weller, McGrath etc all on the watch list. 

[frenzy]

You'll need Titchell, or at least a plan to get him.( I think he's a must start )

[ubeaut]

Solid Mids and Rucks.
Not sure about picking players based on age, and I'd hardly call Billings, Mills or Williams proven elites, especially in SC terms.
Having said that Williams is the right price, and Mills is a possible break out contender.
Billings I refuse to pick straight up after last year's debacle, if he proves himself I'll pay extra to get him in.
Burton is interesting how much is he? Could play a major role down back or even midfield for Port.
Structure is pretty good, although Rozee at F4 may be a little weak.

[duffercoat]

Solid Mids and Rucks.
Not sure about picking players based on age, and I'd hardly call Billings, Mills or Williams proven elites, especially in SC terms.
Having said that Williams is the right price, and Mills is a possible break out contender.
Billings I refuse to pick straight up after last year's debacle, if he proves himself I'll pay extra to get him in.
Burton is interesting how much is he? Could play a major role down back or even midfield for Port.
Structure is pretty good, although Rozee at F4 may be a little weak.

I should have been more clear with regards to Mills, Billings and Williams. I expect them all to become elites in SC at some point even though they aren't yet and there's a risk that won't be this year for any of them.

All have shown a proficiency for scoring at times though, all are in the 24 and younger age bracket and all have shown they score more highly with more midfield time - which they are expected to get (well Williams will probably maintain his, but that's acceptable).

Billings post-bye averaged 92.8 - the same he averaged in 2017 to get picked by many a coach for 2018. Only now he's cheaper.

Williams is discounted after playing 2 games and had a 2017 average of 93.9 - he's a lock.

Mills is the biggest risk. 9 games for an average of 79 in 2018, the highest he's averaged so far. Expected to play more midfield time in 2019 but unproven in the role. Just realised he isn't discounted as 9 games puts him over that threshold - may reconsider after learning this.

Agree regarding Rozee at F4 is weak. Could be worth getting a couple more discounted mids? Sloane, Zorko, Dusty, Bont could all be better value than my current mids.

[Ringo]

Still think you need that plan for Mitchell though who is a virtual must.

[Peter]

I think all the experienced coaches agree - Mitchell is a must. Have a look at his scores over the season and you just can’t give away that sort of start to the coaches that have him. Even with the odd tag, giving away a huge start imo.

[duffercoat]

Still think you need that plan for Mitchell though who is a virtual must.

I think all the experienced coaches agree - Mitchell is a must. Have a look at his scores over the season and you just can’t give away that sort of start to the coaches that have him. Even with the odd tag, giving away a huge start imo.

With this advice in mind, I'll likely swap Josh Kelly to Tom Mitchell. Only issue being Im $53k short currently - and whilst ideally this money would come out of expensive rookies (ie. Sam Walsh) that probably isn't appropriate until we know the rookies better.

So the move I've decided on is to turn Callum Mills into Brodie Smith. Similar risk (breakout vs return from injury) and still potential of producing large numbers but a bit cheaper and priced around 20ish points below what he's likely to score. Slim chance of him being a top 10 defender though meaning he'd likely cost a trade at some point.

TL;DR:

IN: Tom Mitchell, Brodie Smith

OUT: Josh Kelly, Callum Mills

[Peter]

Like this better. Even Rozee is a chance to save money on as from reading across various sites, he is unlikely to play Round 1, due to his size. But they could be wrong

[duffercoat]

Version 2(hundred)

DEF:
Laird, Williams, Burton,
Rozee, Collins, Hore
(McLennan, Watson)

MID:
Macrae, Cripps, Fyfe, J Kelly,
Zorko, Walsh, Stocker, Atley
(Sparrow, Valente, Hill)

RUC:
Grundy, Goldstein
(Fort)

FWD:
Dangerfield, Menegola, Heeney
Greene, Blakey, Setterfield
(Corbett, Cavarra)

Weakened the backline as I think there's the most unknown value there and would prefer to wait and see who the new rules benefit rather than gambling preseason.

Rozee's Def/Fwd eligibility means that even if Greene gets injured again I can trade him to a defender who is improving due to the rule changes.

Still have a number of expensive rookies to give myself room if none of the cheapies get named rd 1. If they do though I may go Goldy -> Gawn.

[Money Shot]

Good team to sit on until JLT. Well done.

[duffercoat]

Version 3(hundred)

DEF:
Laird, Crisp, Williams,
Collins, Clark, Duursma
(Hore, Watson)

MID:
Macrae, Cripps, Fyfe, Neale,
M Crouch, Walsh, Butters, Constable
(Atkins, Scott, Gibbons)

RUC:
Grundy, Gawn
(O'Brien)

FWD:
Dangerfield, Heeney, Walters
Setterfield, Drew, Petruccelle
(Balta, Parker)

Almost full Guns and Rookies now, I've concluded I'm better off taking risks on high scoring players that have injury histories (walters, fyfe, williams etc).

Expect OBrien to get games this year as the Crows need to start giving him experience but am considering having Burgess in the backline to open up the ability to trade in a Def mid-pricer if Walters gets hurt. Would have to turn OBrien into a loophole in that case.

[duffercoat]

Version 4

A few rather large changes made this time.



Having seen what the overall winners generally score in the first few rounds I simply don't feel comfortable with Petruccelle, Parker or Balta on field. They will not score enough to be competitive. Greene was the obvious inclusion if I could find some cash.

Obviously Rocky is a massive, massive risk. But one that at least has a high ceiling and based on the fact that he finally played over 80% ToG for Port on the weekend (86%!) he should improve his scoring regardless. I expect closer to 100 than his previous premo days, but that will be good enough for me as it's a 10-15 ppg loss from Neale, but I'll make that up elsewhere.

Heeney was hard to drop, but I see him as around his maximum price already. Given the swans fixture pre-bye includes all of last years top 8 except for the hawks but includes Adelaide, Essendon and North I see them copping quite a few losses in the early season which will likely hurt his scores. Meanwhile Boak is back to playing midfield and seems a certainty to average around 95.

[Money Shot]

I really think Heeney is a must along with Danger in the forward line. He has been promised more midfield minutes and is all class. Boak and Walters both have some risk about them. I personally like the Boak pick but Walters has been the ultimate burn man time and time again.

Rocky is clearly a calculated risk which could pay off massively if he sets the world on fire early which is not impossible.

[arbel]

I think the Boak pick is slightly risky but not that bad but walters is a no I think.
Have to beware the flashy small fwd players they can score huge one week and then burn you the next. Nowhere near consistent enough. If you can get Heeney back in there for him that will be a good line up

[duffercoat]

V4.1



Responding to the great advice from Money Shot and arbel, I have got Heeney back into the team to replace Walters. The real cost of this is Laird down to Sicily at D1, but I have also turned O'Brien (who I still expect to get games this year at some point) into Sweet to find the cash necessary.

I still see Tobe Watson as the best loophole available as he allows me to loop Hore and Duursma and I see the Def Rookies as having the best Job Security. If however a mid rookie I currently have is not named (e.g. Constable) I will likely turn them into a def rookie like Burgess by moving Watson into the mids (giving me the ability to swing him freely with Duursma).