Justin Westhoff

[enzedder]

Justin Westhoff FWD/RUCK $549,500
cons: 32 years old, averaged over 100 only once (2018), Lycett's arrival and impact.
pros: durable 20+ games last 8 seasons, coming off a career best year, averages last 6 years 85-101pts, DPP ruck cover.

I'm giving some thought to starting him as R2. Once we know who is the best other ruck to get with Grundy I'll be free to switch Westhoff fwd. His averages over the last 6 years have been solid. His 2018 form was outstanding and even with Lycett operating a dual ruck set up with Ryder it shouldn't impact on Westhoff's ability to score IMO. He will still push up the ground and history has shown he doesn't need to get hit outs to score well. I really believe Westhoff will do enough to prove worthy of F6 minimum by year's end. An average in the 90s is very likely. Though his age is of some concern but he is coming off a career best year. Kade Simpson keeps showing it doesn't matter haha.
By starting the hoff as a ruck and not paying up for the likes of Goldy or Stef who are questionable picks I can also afford to get another premo fwd who should be a a much safer initial pick and keeper. For me this is Devon Smith at this stage. From a trader's perspective this may be a smart move as it could keep an extra trade in the bank.
Once rucks are sorted and Hoff switches into a fwd position in my team he will also provide decent ruck cover if that is needed.
One drawback to starting Hoff as R2 that I can see is I will need to have a FWD/RUCK rookie in the fwds to switch him with. This may mean I potentially will have a non scoring fwd rookie filling a spot in my team where others will have a cow fattening up.
Whist his price puts him in as one of the most expensive fwds and some may look to get him for cheaper later that may be countered by getting him as R2 ...Goldy is at the same price and Stef is 20k more....Will they hold value? Will they be keepers? In this light Hoff doesn't lose any appeal for me as a starting pick.
I'm not sold completely on him as R2 yet but can see it happening. Talking myself into it.
What are others thinking?
Starting or not? And if you are as a fwd or ruck?

[RaisyDaisy]

Won't be starting Hoff

He averaged over 100 this year, but prior to this year he always averaged in the mid to high 80's or thereabouts

Certainly durable which is a big plus, but the difference between this year and every other year was that this year he played a lot more in the ruck, hence the better scoring, and a simple glance at his stats will prove that

Lycett coming in means he won't be in the ruck much, so I expect his scoring to go back to what it always was prior to 2018

I think he averages somewhere in the 85-92 range, so he should be good for F6 especially because he provides ruck cover, but I see no benefit in paying up 550k and starting him

I'll be looking to bring him in at some point in the season, when he is under 500k and when/if I need him to cover ruck

I see the appeal in starting him at R2 to give yourself time to see who the best R2 to pick will be, but he's 550k which is too much to do that. Goldy and Stef are cheaper

All these ruck dilemmas people are facing - I haven't batted an eyelid with Grundy and Gawn, set and forget. Even if they drop in value, I still can't see any other rucks coming close to them so I'll save the trades and stress less by starting both ;)

[ubeaut]

I'm torn on this.
Last season I was choosing between Gray and Hoff as an upgrade, and chose Gray cos Hoff had never averaged 100,he's getting on and Gray had better scoring history.
Well didn't Hoff prove me wrong and had his best season in SC and on field.

His biggest pluses are his DPP and durability. We got lucky this year with ruck injuries with Gawn, Goldy, Martin and Grundy all playing every game. Ryder went down early and was an easy swap without losing value.

I've posted this elsewhere, but to what extent did more ruck time contribute to his scoring? How can we be sure that this is what led him to average 100? How many HTAs were among his 8 taps a game? He seemed to have one if not his best year form wise so this had to have some effect.

Having said that I don't see him going 100+ again. While Ryder and Lycett playing fwd will give him more time on the wing and being that link man, he'll probably have less shots at goal.

If you're picking Kreuz or Mummy I think he's kinda essential as back up.
I think I'd rather have him as a fwd, as having a DPP non scoring rookie in the fwd line isn't ideal, due to lack of cover and cash generation.
Plus he's hardly ruck backup if u pick him as R2 is he? Say Grundy gets a 2 week injury you can't swing Hoff there cos he's already R2 so how does he help in that scenario?
Then again picking him as a fwd means you miss out on a Dunkley/Gray/Wingard/Smith given the amount of fwd premos to choose from.

Let's face it he wouldn't be on many people's radar if not for his DPP, so that's the reason to pick him if at all.
And remember if a ruck goes down short term it's actually a rookie bench fwd who is covering for him as you'd be getting Hoffs score either way, so take that in consideration . But a rookie fwd score is better than a 0 or trading a top ruck out and in again.
Maybe it'll come down to a Darcy Fort or Zac Clarke getting games so we won't need Hoffs expensive ruck backup.

[Money Shot]

Won't be starting Hoff

He averaged over 100 this year, but prior to this year he always averaged in the mid to high 80's or thereabouts

Certainly durable which is a big plus, but the difference between this year and every other year was that this year he played a lot more in the ruck, hence the better scoring, and a simple glance at his stats will prove that

Lycett coming in means he won't be in the ruck much, so I expect his scoring to go back to what it always was prior to 2018

I think he averages somewhere in the 85-92 range, so he should be good for F6 especially because he provides ruck cover, but I see no benefit in paying up 550k and starting him

I'll be looking to bring him in at some point in the season, when he is under 500k and when/if I need him to cover ruck

I see the appeal in starting him at R2 to give yourself time to see who the best R2 to pick will be, but he's 550k which is too much to do that. Goldy and Stef are cheaper

All these ruck dilemmas people are facing - I haven't batted an eyelid with Grundy and Gawn, set and forget. Even if they drop in value, I still can't see any other rucks coming close to them so I'll save the trades and stress less by starting both ;)

This.

If Hoff wasn’t a DPP no one would really be considering him. I would much prefer Danger, Smith, Heeney and Gray along with others over him. Can always bring him in as an upgrade a few rounds in if he shows good form but for now it’s not worth starting him.

[RaisyDaisy]

I've posted this elsewhere, but to what extent did more ruck time contribute to his scoring? How can we be sure that this is what led him to average 100? How many HTAs were among his 8 taps a game? He seemed to have one if not his best year form wise so this had to have some effect.

Have you actually looked at his numbers like I've suggested?

You can clearly see he had regular HO's this year, and when you look at 2017 (When he averaged 87) he barely had a HO

That is the difference, and why he increased his averaged by approx 15ppg

In 2018 he had 181 HO's

In 2017 he had 31 HO's

HOTA is irrelevant when he'll barely be in the ruck now that Lycett is in

[Holz]

I've posted this elsewhere, but to what extent did more ruck time contribute to his scoring? How can we be sure that this is what led him to average 100? How many HTAs were among his 8 taps a game? He seemed to have one if not his best year form wise so this had to have some effect.

Have you actually looked at his numbers like I've suggested?

You can clearly see he had regular HO's this year, and when you look at 2017 (When he averaged 87) he barely had a HO

That is the difference, and why he increased his averaged by approx 15ppg

In 2018 he had 181 HO's

In 2017 he had 31 HO's

HOTA is irrelevant when he'll barely be in the ruck now that Lycett is in

i think the point is that his actual Hitouts probably didn't lead many more points.

However him being in the ruck, probably resulted in a few more contested possessions and tackles.

[RaisyDaisy]

Correct

As he won't be in the ruck as much now, he will be at less contests which should result in less scoring, which is reflected in his previous years scoring

[Holz]

Correct

As he won't be in the ruck as much now, he will be at less contests which should result in less scoring, which is reflected in his previous years scoring

At the same time he has averaged 93 over the last 6 years. So he certainly has the capability of going 90+

[ubeaut]

I've posted this elsewhere, but to what extent did more ruck time contribute to his scoring? How can we be sure that this is what led him to average 100? How many HTAs were among his 8 taps a game? He seemed to have one if not his best year form wise so this had to have some effect.

Have you actually looked at his numbers like I've suggested?

You can clearly see he had regular HO's this year, and when you look at 2017 (When he averaged 87) he barely had a HO

That is the difference, and why he increased his averaged by approx 15ppg

In 2018 he had 181 HO's

In 2017 he had 31 HO's

HOTA is irrelevant when he'll barely be in the ruck now that Lycett is in

Yes I've looked. It doesn't necessarily automatically mean that his hit out increase led to higher scores, unless he had lots of HOTAs which I can't find stats on.
I can see, however, that he increased tackles to 5pg up from his usual 3,which would account for 8 points. And that increase could be from being in and around the stoppages more.
So yes I agree he's likely to drop to 90 odd still that's mighty handy as backup and F6, but spending 550k not so handy.

[crowls]

Hoff had an out of standard season last year.    2019 will revert to high 80's most likely.     550k is a waste up front for a 80"s keeper.     

Set and forget on Grundy and Gawn is probably going to be the highest scoring option this year.     

If funds are tight then I am hopeful of finding a starting R2 that I can ride for a mid season upgrade to Gawn as r2.    Fort at Geelong still looks best option to me as Geelong have not been able to tie down a permanent ruck for years.

Kruezer also provides a reasonable risk/return option.      Not going to know until close to start of the season.

Goldstein and Martin will be like Goldy last year,  not bad enough to do anything about but not providing the best option and dropping points to opposition every week and making life hard.

[quinny88]

Where does he actually play now? He's always been Mr fix it but  Port are now set up front with Charlie and Ryder with Lycett doing bulk of the ruck so does Westhoff take a permanent Wing position and float around half back? Polec gone too leaves that spot open. His scoring could be better than ever if that's the case. Those huge scores he gets are usually when he's floating around the wing and half back

[Mat0369]

I think Hoff will play on the wing. The thing is traditional wingman don't score all that well in SC. The guys that tend to put up the most points are the defensive wing like a Heath Scotland (yeah I'm going back a bit) that drifts and plays more as a loose man or across half back.

Using the Hill's, Issac Smith, Polec and Tom Phillips as examples they aren't going to put up numbers over 100 in SC.

Gaff is the only guy that you can say has put up elite numbers on the wing. I'm not sure how much he played there this year though since I didn't watch a lot of Eagles games. Duncan and Hanners are the other two, but it feels both started in the square as much as they lined up on the wing.

With the 6-6-6 formation I think you will find one of the two wings will drop behind the ball from the bounce. I can see Hoff playing that role and with his size and overhead ability it should see him get a few intercept possessions.

[quinny88]

I think Hoff will play on the wing. The thing is traditional wingman don't score all that well in SC. The guys that tend to put up the most points are the defensive wing like a Heath Scotland (yeah I'm going back a bit) that drifts and plays more as a loose man or across half back.

Using the Hill's, Issac Smith, Polec and Tom Phillips as examples they aren't going to put up numbers over 100 in SC.

Gaff is the only guy that you can say has put up elite numbers on the wing. I'm not sure how much he played there this year though since I didn't watch a lot of Eagles games. Duncan and Hanners are the other two, but it feels both started in the square as much as they lined up on the wing.

With the 6-6-6 formation I think you will find one of the two wings will drop behind the ball from the bounce. I can see Hoff playing that role and with his size and overhead ability it should see him get a few intercept possessions.

I think he will play that role too and play it really well. I expect close to the 100 mark again from the hoff and he best part is he just doesn't miss games. Missed 1 game in 7 years

[shaker]

Won't be starting Hoff for a number of reasons even though he has been durable , there is his cost , his age , Lycett arriving would much rather a younger FWD- MID type like Heeney or Smith , age slows just about all players eventually and don't want spend 550K and find this is his year.

[frenzy]

yep, costs too much and won't be needing RUC coverage.