Mid Price Options 2019

Started by RaisyDaisy, December 13, 2018, 11:20:23 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

quinny88

Quote from: hawkers65 on March 07, 2019, 10:17:20 PM
Quote from: GoldDigger on March 07, 2019, 10:15:42 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2019, 10:13:26 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on March 07, 2019, 10:05:15 PM
Libba belongs in teams that also pick Darcy Moore. The irrelevant coaches group ... 100/1 to average 90 ....


Hmmm!

Hahahaha bang, probably would just call it an early night and pretend i never saw this if i was him. No coming back from that

Darcy Moore probably his current D4 too  :-X

quinny88

Quote from: Sonnydark on March 07, 2019, 10:19:15 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2019, 08:45:49 PM
Quote from: hawkers65 on March 07, 2019, 06:36:02 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2019, 05:57:16 PM
Keep choosing to ignore important information, that's fine

Don't know how many times I can say Libba was an absolute mess for a couple of years and probably wasn't even mentally fit to be playing AFL, but keep using his scores during that time to justify your Crouch love - we'll see come seasons end how it all pans out

Quote from: Bully on March 07, 2019, 05:26:09 PM
People forget Libba has been irrelevent for nearly 5 years.

Brad Crouch hasn't been any better. At least Libba has proven he can bang out 105+ over 50 games

Again, I like Brad Crouch as a player and he could go 105+, but to suggest Libba is not a good pick at 300k is just wrong

Chill out mate... And its March mate, nothing is wrong or right. Libba is a loose cannon, something isn right in that blokes head at the best of times

Wait a minute. I need to chill out because I think ruling out Libba for 300k is wrong, but Crouch is just so much better for 420k?

Have a read over GL's post again, and then tell me I am still wrong for saying people who think Libba is not a good pick is wrong but Brad Crouch is a good pick

Not sure how you can say Greene is locked in everyone's side if he gets through one game after that too. Because he's so reliable, unlike Libba?

Completely agree with you, RaisyDaisy.

IMO... it's a mistake to compare B Crouch to Libba. The reason why everyone's comparing B Crouch to Libba is that it's a choice of one or the other (assuming you're wanting a mid-pricer at M5).

The error here is viewing it in terms of points, rather than the function.

If you look at it in terms of function, B Crouch needs to be a keeper to be a good pick. In my opinion, a solid cash cow is a player who makes 150K. In the case of B Crouch, 150K places him at 570K. If he's scoring well enough to rise to 570K, I'm not selling him. He's a keeper, and only a keeper. So you choose B Crouch based on his potential to be a keeper, and nothing less. Anything less is a failure.

Libba, on the other hand, is a cash cow. He doesn't need to average 108 to be a successful pick. He only needs to make me 150k. If he scores in a manner that sees him rise to 450K or above, happy days. If he pulls something out of the hat and becomes a keeper, bonus! Unlike B Crouch, he doesn't need to be a keeper to be a good pick.

So on this point alone, Libba is ahead. Not because he's a better pick in terms of points returned, but because he's a safer pick, in terms of having a higher probability of realising his function.

The thing about Libba... if you do go with Libba, you need to be very clear in your strategy about what you need him to be. I absolutely want 13 keepers in my starting line-up. I currently have 13 keepers, excluding Libba. If Libba turns out to be a keeper - happy days - I have 14 keepers.

Therefore... if I need my M5 to be a keeper, I'm no selecting Libba. I'd rather find the extra cash to select B Crouch, or better still, Taranto, or Steele, or better still... M Crouch.


It's therefore comes down to who is better or worse, but rather who has the higher EV. And because Libba can be both a keeper and a cash cow, whereas B Crouch can only be a keeper, Libba has a higher EV than B Crouch.

So it's an easy decision for me. Libba at M5; with S Walsh at M6 + 2 Rookies. In my view, this is the lock-stock optimal midfield structure.

Absolutely spot on Sonny

GoLions

Quote from: Sonnydark on March 07, 2019, 10:19:15 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2019, 08:45:49 PM
Quote from: hawkers65 on March 07, 2019, 06:36:02 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2019, 05:57:16 PM
Keep choosing to ignore important information, that's fine

Don't know how many times I can say Libba was an absolute mess for a couple of years and probably wasn't even mentally fit to be playing AFL, but keep using his scores during that time to justify your Crouch love - we'll see come seasons end how it all pans out

Quote from: Bully on March 07, 2019, 05:26:09 PM
People forget Libba has been irrelevent for nearly 5 years.

Brad Crouch hasn't been any better. At least Libba has proven he can bang out 105+ over 50 games

Again, I like Brad Crouch as a player and he could go 105+, but to suggest Libba is not a good pick at 300k is just wrong

Chill out mate... And its March mate, nothing is wrong or right. Libba is a loose cannon, something isn right in that blokes head at the best of times

Wait a minute. I need to chill out because I think ruling out Libba for 300k is wrong, but Crouch is just so much better for 420k?

Have a read over GL's post again, and then tell me I am still wrong for saying people who think Libba is not a good pick is wrong but Brad Crouch is a good pick

Not sure how you can say Greene is locked in everyone's side if he gets through one game after that too. Because he's so reliable, unlike Libba?

Completely agree with you, RaisyDaisy.

IMO... it's a mistake to compare B Crouch to Libba. The reason why everyone's comparing B Crouch to Libba is that it's a choice of one or the other (assuming you're wanting a mid-pricer at M5).

The error here is viewing it in terms of points, rather than the function.

If you look at it in terms of function, B Crouch needs to be a keeper to be a good pick. In my opinion, a solid cash cow is a player who makes 150K. In the case of B Crouch, 150K places him at 570K. If he's scoring well enough to rise to 570K, I'm not selling him. He's a keeper, and only a keeper. So you choose B Crouch based on his potential to be a keeper, and nothing less. Anything less is a failure.

Libba, on the other hand, is a cash cow. He doesn't need to average 108 to be a successful pick. He only needs to make me 150k. If he scores in a manner that sees him rise to 450K or above, happy days. If he pulls something out of the hat and becomes a keeper, bonus! Unlike B Crouch, he doesn't need to be a keeper to be a good pick.

So on this point alone, Libba is ahead. Not because he's a better pick in terms of points returned, but because he's a safer pick, in terms of having a higher probability of realising his function.

The thing about Libba... if you do go with Libba, you need to be very clear in your strategy about what you need him to be. I absolutely want 13 keepers in my starting line-up. I currently have 13 keepers, excluding Libba. If Libba turns out to be a keeper - happy days - I have 14 keepers.

Therefore... if I need my M5 to be a keeper, I'm no selecting Libba. I'd rather find the extra cash to select B Crouch, or better still, Taranto, or Steele, or better still... M Crouch.


It's therefore comes down to who is better or worse, but rather who has the higher EV. And because Libba can be both a keeper and a cash cow, whereas B Crouch can only be a keeper, Libba has a higher EV than B Crouch.

So it's an easy decision for me. Libba at M5; with S Walsh at M6 + 2 Rookies. In my view, this is the lock-stock optimal midfield structure.
I like this post

eaglesman

Quote from: hawkers65 on March 07, 2019, 10:17:20 PM
Quote from: GoldDigger on March 07, 2019, 10:15:42 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2019, 10:13:26 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on March 07, 2019, 10:05:15 PM
Libba belongs in teams that also pick Darcy Moore. The irrelevant coaches group ... 100/1 to average 90 ....


Hmmm!

Hahahaha bang, probably would just call it an early night and pretend i never saw this if i was him. No coming back from that

And? I would rather realise I was being a total
flowering idiot early than after lockout round 1. Essentially I’m a month in front of where the libba selecting clowns are now who haven’t thought better of it yet?

And when I say winners cheque it was only $5k for perthnow. But hey I am willing to bet most here haven’t won anything like that?

Mat0369

If I am picking an awkward mid price mid it's Rocky and no one else. Neither Crouch or Libba have anywhere near the scoring history Rocky does. Crouch and Rocky are equally likely to break down.

Libba is one of the most cooked dudes off the field of any AFL player, if you're banking on him suddenly not being so cooked off the field after watching him and Dahl post cooked Instagram videos and getting Simpsons tattoos you're gonna have a bad time. There is no way I would be using the 'he had issues 4 years ago' line to give a reason for a drop off. He still has issues. Having said that, you're probably getting an 80 at worst.

eaglesman

Quote from: Mat0369 on March 07, 2019, 10:26:40 PM
If I am picking an awkward mid price mid it's Rocky and no one else. Neither Crouch or Libba have anywhere near the scoring history Rocky does. Crouch and Rocky are equally likely to break down.

Libba is one of the most cooked dudes off the field of any AFL player, if you're banking on him suddenly not being so cooked off the field after watching him and Dahl post cooked Instagram videos and getting Simpsons tattoos you're gonna have a bad time. There is no way I would be using the 'he had issues 4 years ago' line to give a reason for a drop off. He still has issues. Having said that, you're probably getting an 80 at worst.

A great common sense post. Rocky just never again for me.

TomK

Quote from: Mat0369 on March 07, 2019, 10:26:40 PM
If I am picking an awkward mid price mid it's Rocky and no one else. Neither Crouch or Libba have anywhere near the scoring history Rocky does. Crouch and Rocky are equally likely to break down.

Libba is one of the most cooked dudes off the field of any AFL player, if you're banking on him suddenly not being so cooked off the field after watching him and Dahl post cooked Instagram videos and getting Simpsons tattoos you're gonna have a bad time. There is no way I would be using the 'he had issues 4 years ago' line to give a reason for a drop off. He still has issues. Having said that, you're probably getting an 80 at worst.
I take it you haven't seen Rocky play yet this pre season? He's looked awful

GoLions

Quote from: Mat0369 on March 07, 2019, 10:26:40 PM
Libba is one of the most cooked dudes off the field of any AFL player, if you're banking on him suddenly not being so cooked off the field after watching him and Dahl post cooked Instagram videos and getting Simpsons tattoos you're gonna have a bad time.
This just makes me want him more hahahaha

elephants

Quote from: eaglesman on March 07, 2019, 10:25:51 PM
Quote from: hawkers65 on March 07, 2019, 10:17:20 PM
Quote from: GoldDigger on March 07, 2019, 10:15:42 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2019, 10:13:26 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on March 07, 2019, 10:05:15 PM
Libba belongs in teams that also pick Darcy Moore. The irrelevant coaches group ... 100/1 to average 90 ....


Hmmm!

Hahahaha bang, probably would just call it an early night and pretend i never saw this if i was him. No coming back from that

And? I would rather realise I was being a total
flowering idiot early than after lockout round 1. Essentially I’m a month in front of where the libba selecting clowns are now who haven’t thought better of it yet?

And when I say winners cheque it was only $5k for perthnow. But hey I am willing to bet most here haven’t won anything like that?

Hahaha call it a night bud, the fact you need to talk up the fact you've won coin from a fantasy game doesn't support your point

Quote from: eaglesman on March 07, 2019, 10:09:59 PM
Quote from: elephants on March 07, 2019, 10:06:53 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on March 07, 2019, 10:05:15 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2019, 08:45:49 PM
Quote from: hawkers65 on March 07, 2019, 06:36:02 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2019, 05:57:16 PM
Keep choosing to ignore important information, that's fine

Don't know how many times I can say Libba was an absolute mess for a couple of years and probably wasn't even mentally fit to be playing AFL, but keep using his scores during that time to justify your Crouch love - we'll see come seasons end how it all pans out

Quote from: Bully on March 07, 2019, 05:26:09 PM
People forget Libba has been irrelevent for nearly 5 years.

Brad Crouch hasn't been any better. At least Libba has proven he can bang out 105+ over 50 games

Again, I like Brad Crouch as a player and he could go 105+, but to suggest Libba is not a good pick at 300k is just wrong

Chill out mate... And its March mate, nothing is wrong or right. Libba is a loose cannon, something isn right in that blokes head at the best of times

Wait a minute. I need to chill out because I think ruling out Libba for 300k is wrong, but Crouch is just so much better for 420k?

Have a read over GL's post again, and then tell me I am still wrong for saying people who think Libba is not a good pick is wrong but Brad Crouch is a good pick

Not sure how you can say Greene is locked in everyone's side if he gets through one game after that too. Because he's so reliable, unlike Libba?

Libba belongs in teams that also pick Darcy Moore. The irrelevant coaches group ... 100/1 to average 90 ....

More baseless pots, contribution.

Stats already been quoted above. Why repeat?
I have no idea who you are or if you have any real claim a past SuperCoach ranking (i can send you a photo of my SuperCoach winners cheque if you like) but I’m sure you would be right up there in the rankings of the irrelevant coaches group though. So bravo mate bravo for that.

Haha you hero, I've also won money from SC (came 2nd overall one week in '17) and many others have also won money so you're not all that special champ.

Your arrogance is profound, you may not mean it but its pretty hilarious tbf

Mat0369

Quote from: TomK on March 07, 2019, 10:29:50 PM
I take it you haven't seen Rocky play yet this pre season? He's looked awful

I have. He was plodding around in the midfield for Port with some pretty poor disposal. He looked to be knocking some rust off getting back out after pre-season. Right now I have none of them in my team, but if I was going to pick one it is him.

eaglesman

Quote from: elephants on March 07, 2019, 10:30:11 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on March 07, 2019, 10:25:51 PM
Quote from: hawkers65 on March 07, 2019, 10:17:20 PM
Quote from: GoldDigger on March 07, 2019, 10:15:42 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2019, 10:13:26 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on March 07, 2019, 10:05:15 PM
Libba belongs in teams that also pick Darcy Moore. The irrelevant coaches group ... 100/1 to average 90 ....


Hmmm!

Hahahaha bang, probably would just call it an early night and pretend i never saw this if i was him. No coming back from that

And? I would rather realise I was being a total
flowering idiot early than after lockout round 1. Essentially I’m a month in front of where the libba selecting clowns are now who haven’t thought better of it yet?

And when I say winners cheque it was only $5k for perthnow. But hey I am willing to bet most here haven’t won anything like that?

Hahaha call it a night bud, the fact you need to talk up the fact you've won coin from a fantasy game doesn't support your point

Quote from: eaglesman on March 07, 2019, 10:09:59 PM
Quote from: elephants on March 07, 2019, 10:06:53 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on March 07, 2019, 10:05:15 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2019, 08:45:49 PM
Quote from: hawkers65 on March 07, 2019, 06:36:02 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 07, 2019, 05:57:16 PM
Keep choosing to ignore important information, that's fine

Don't know how many times I can say Libba was an absolute mess for a couple of years and probably wasn't even mentally fit to be playing AFL, but keep using his scores during that time to justify your Crouch love - we'll see come seasons end how it all pans out

Quote from: Bully on March 07, 2019, 05:26:09 PM
People forget Libba has been irrelevent for nearly 5 years.

Brad Crouch hasn't been any better. At least Libba has proven he can bang out 105+ over 50 games

Again, I like Brad Crouch as a player and he could go 105+, but to suggest Libba is not a good pick at 300k is just wrong

Chill out mate... And its March mate, nothing is wrong or right. Libba is a loose cannon, something isn right in that blokes head at the best of times

Wait a minute. I need to chill out because I think ruling out Libba for 300k is wrong, but Crouch is just so much better for 420k?

Have a read over GL's post again, and then tell me I am still wrong for saying people who think Libba is not a good pick is wrong but Brad Crouch is a good pick

Not sure how you can say Greene is locked in everyone's side if he gets through one game after that too. Because he's so reliable, unlike Libba?

Libba belongs in teams that also pick Darcy Moore. The irrelevant coaches group ... 100/1 to average 90 ....

More baseless pots, contribution.

Stats already been quoted above. Why repeat?
I have no idea who you are or if you have any real claim a past SuperCoach ranking (i can send you a photo of my SuperCoach winners cheque if you like) but I’m sure you would be right up there in the rankings of the irrelevant coaches group though. So bravo mate bravo for that.

Haha you hero, I've also won money from SC (came 2nd overall one week in '17) and many others have also won money so you're not all that special champ.

Your arrogance is profound, you may not mean it but its pretty hilarious tbf

I only take into account the views of maybe 6 people and private message 2-3 that express some sort of knowledge ... I have given a dope like you too much time already. Life

GoldDigger

Quote from: eaglesman on March 07, 2019, 10:25:51 PM... when I say winners cheque it was only $5k for perthnow. But hey I am willing to bet most here haven’t won anything like that?
I'd be so proud - I wouldn't say "only"!

eaglesman

Quote from: GoldDigger on March 07, 2019, 10:41:08 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on March 07, 2019, 10:25:51 PM... when I say winners cheque it was only $5k for perthnow. But hey I am willing to bet most here haven’t won anything like that?
I'd be so proud - I wouldn't say "only"!

Well winners cheque could be taken as the $50k and that’s truly the winner ... coming 5th overall but 1st in perthnow is still not really a winner ... heck it was nice getting $5k on 22 December though very timely

kilbluff1985

Football Factory a coach on here won real dream team in 2017

_wato

L





M





A





O





Everyone keep going but, great viewing