2019 Rookies

[Holz]

You realise one is essentially rookie priced and one is pure mid pricer. It's apples and oranges. It's like saying 'I'd rather spend the extra 80k over Walsh to start Libba'

I don't buy this artificial line in the sand reasoning, it's bollocks when you are talking about 80k, Walsh is a rookie but is 100k more than Gibbons. I'd prefer to argue the merits of each position on the field, that is the only logical comparison. When weighing up the merits of Smith I'm tossing up whether or not  I should pay 188k for Collins, to me it comes down to upside & also the possibility I won't have to trade until after the byes. Smith has a great bye too so that is also factored into his starting price, fprm also pretty good in his past 13 games (five tons & seven 90+ scores). I'm also looking at roles on the field & Smith is being touted as a kick out player, think people need to look beyond the stale mid pricer vs rookie debates.

And just to throw a spanner in the works I'm probably not going to pick Walsh as most first year players struggle to hit 75.

Well it's a line in the sand because at $200k you're looking for a $200k profit.

At $300k a $200k profit is a low end keeper.

A $300k mid pricer that makes $150k is a failure because of the opportunity cost.  Not the same story for a $200k rookie - you can live with a $150k profit, particularly if they are a popular pick.

Think you will find very few rookies/mid pricers make 200k profit, 150k more realistic. When I take Smith for example, I can see his ceiling will be in the 450k-500k range, he has hit that mark pretty much every season. The real question is when, given he's a high standard deviation player that could work out ie. around the byes, or it could be poor timing & I'm stuck with him indefinitely. That is the risk I'm willing to take because I'd rather see who emerges as a top 6 mid.

a 80 player is valued at 435k and players dont reach that value due to the magic number and how the rolling average works. So if he puts up 80ish then he will likely make less then 100k.

For Brad Crouch if he goes 95 then thats a value of 520k so if he does that he will go up around 80k.

Smith is a high standard deviation player, he is also a confidence player who can have some decent stretches.

2017 (round 12-21) - 114, 60, 108, 91, 77, 80, 127, 91, 125
2016 (round 1-6) - 94, 86, 107, 65, 87, 82
2015 (round 17-22) - 83, 64, 101, 76, 108, 126
2014 (round 7-14) - 138, 102, 67, 123, 98, 133, 89

I don't think it's a question of' 'if' he'll hit 450k, it's more about when he does it. Given he looks to be in pretty good form I'm rolling the dice & hopefully by the round 14 bye he'll be an easy sideways trade to a top 6 defender.

ok but if he is to average 80 and he has some good purple patches doesn't that mean he also has some quiet patches.

what if he comes out like 2017 and goes

85 81 73 95 74 76 48 84 35 60 114 60

I have him going up to 355k and averaging 74. That would be an absolute disaster.

[Bully]

You realise one is essentially rookie priced and one is pure mid pricer. It's apples and oranges. It's like saying 'I'd rather spend the extra 80k over Walsh to start Libba'

I don't buy this artificial line in the sand reasoning, it's bollocks when you are talking about 80k, Walsh is a rookie but is 100k more than Gibbons. I'd prefer to argue the merits of each position on the field, that is the only logical comparison. When weighing up the merits of Smith I'm tossing up whether or not  I should pay 188k for Collins, to me it comes down to upside & also the possibility I won't have to trade until after the byes. Smith has a great bye too so that is also factored into his starting price, fprm also pretty good in his past 13 games (five tons & seven 90+ scores). I'm also looking at roles on the field & Smith is being touted as a kick out player, think people need to look beyond the stale mid pricer vs rookie debates.

And just to throw a spanner in the works I'm probably not going to pick Walsh as most first year players struggle to hit 75.

Well it's a line in the sand because at $200k you're looking for a $200k profit.

At $300k a $200k profit is a low end keeper.

A $300k mid pricer that makes $150k is a failure because of the opportunity cost.  Not the same story for a $200k rookie - you can live with a $150k profit, particularly if they are a popular pick.

Think you will find very few rookies/mid pricers make 200k profit, 150k more realistic. When I take Smith for example, I can see his ceiling will be in the 450k-500k range, he has hit that mark pretty much every season. The real question is when, given he's a high standard deviation player that could work out ie. around the byes, or it could be poor timing & I'm stuck with him indefinitely. That is the risk I'm willing to take because I'd rather see who emerges as a top 6 mid.

a 80 player is valued at 435k and players dont reach that value due to the magic number and how the rolling average works. So if he puts up 80ish then he will likely make less then 100k.

For Brad Crouch if he goes 95 then thats a value of 520k so if he does that he will go up around 80k.

Smith is a high standard deviation player, he is also a confidence player who can have some decent stretches.

2017 (round 12-21) - 114, 60, 108, 91, 77, 80, 127, 91, 125
2016 (round 1-6) - 94, 86, 107, 65, 87, 82
2015 (round 17-22) - 83, 64, 101, 76, 108, 126
2014 (round 7-14) - 138, 102, 67, 123, 98, 133, 89

I don't think it's a question of' 'if' he'll hit 450k, it's more about when he does it. Given he looks to be in pretty good form I'm rolling the dice & hopefully by the round 14 bye he'll be an easy sideways trade to a top 6 defender.

ok but if he is to average 80 and he has some good purple patches doesn't that mean he also has some quiet patches.

what if he comes out like 2017 and goes

85 81 73 95 74 76 48 84 35 60 114 60

I have him going up to 355k and averaging 74. That would be an absolute disaster.

Well that's the luck of the draw I guess, going on his last 13 games I'm rolling the dice, his JLT form a continuation of that recent trend. Could be a dud pick but as an absolute worst case scenario he makes small amount & I bring in a top 6 defender. Think with the mid pricers it's a lottery but you generally need to make a couple of correct calls to get an edge. I have B.Crouch/Greene/Williams/B.Smith/Roberton, that's 5 & with any luck I walk away with 3 keepers.

[SilverLion]

Seems at least one of Wilkie/Joyce should play for the Saints round 1, as Austin isn't playing in JLT2 either (heaven knows why).

So should be another rookie there to look at.

[dmac07]

Rory Thompson has done his ACL and is out for the year. Does this make Collins a better pick? Suring up his job security if it wasn't already good.

[SilverLion]

Done this in previous years, seemed to be useful, thought I'd make a list of all the rookies with at a decent chance of playing rd. 1 for reference. (Walsh's price or cheaper, bolded the 124ks or less)

Will narrow the list to just confirmed players when the round 1 sides get named :)

If I'm forgetting anyone, or if anyone here is confirmed no chance lemme know and I'll amend it though.



Defence:

Keeffe 8) ($190,500)
(FWD) Rozee ($189,300)
Collins ($188,900)
Cumming ($173,700)
Logue ($164,300)
Quaynor ($153,300)
Scrimshaw ($149,800)
Clark ($144,300)
(MID) Duursma (130,800)
Wilkie ($124,900)
(FWD) Burgess ($123,900)
Jones ($123,900)
McKay ($123,900)
Joyce ($123,900)
Hore ($117,300)


Mids:

Walsh ($207,300)
Davies-Uniacke ($197,500)
B Smith ($180,300)
C Jones ($171,300)
Caldwell ($162,300)
Butters ($157,800)
Hately ($148,800)
Constable ($123,900)
Bewley ($117,300)
Hind ($117,300)
Hayes ($117,300)
Scott ($117,300)
Atkins ($112,900)
Gibbons ($102,400)

Rucks:

A Smith ($172,300)
Clarke ($142,600)
Fort ($117,300)

Forwards:

Lukosius ($202,800)
Rankine ($198,300)
Polson 8) ($191,800)
Blakey ($166,800)
Lewis ($149,000)
(MID) Setterfield ($144,900)
Miers ($123,900)
Hanrahan ($123,900)
(MID) Drew ($123,900)
Balta ($123,900)
Petrucelle ($123,900)
Parker ($117,300)
Cavarra ($117,300)

[Nige]

Rory Thompson has done his ACL and is out for the year. Does this make Collins a better pick? Suring up his job security if it wasn't already good.

Potentially means Ben King gets a run.

[RoughRed]

Done this in previous years, seemed to be useful, thought I'd make a list of all the rookies with at a decent chance of playing rd. 1 for reference: (Walsh's price or cheaper, bolded the 124ks or less)

Will narrow the list to just confirmed players when the round 1 sides get named :)

If I'm forgetting anyone, or if anyone here is confirmed no chance lemme know and I'll amend it though.

Defence:

Keeffe 8) ($190,500)
(FWD) Rozee ($189,300)
Collins ($188,900)
Cumming ($173,700)
Logue ($164,300)
Quaynor ($153,300)
Clark ($144,300)
(MID) Duursma (130,800)
Wilkie ($124,900)
(FWD) Burgess ($123,900)
Jones ($123,900)
McKay ($123,900)
Joyce ($123,900)
Hore ($117,300)


Mids:

Walsh ($207,300)
Davies-Uniacke ($197,500)
B Smith ($180,300)
C Jones ($171,300)
Caldwell ($162,300)
Butters ($157,800)
Hately ($148,800)
Constable ($123,900)
Bewley ($117,300)
Hind ($117,300)
Hayes ($117,300)
Atkins ($112,900)
Gibbons ($102,400)

Rucks:

A Smith ($172,300)
Clarke ($142,600)
Fort ($117,300)

Forwards:

Lukosius ($202,800)
Rankine ($198,300)
Polson 8) ($191,800)
Blakey ($166,800)
(MID) Setterfield ($144,900)
Lewis ($149,000)
Miers ($123,900)
Hanrahan ($123,900)
(MID) Drew ($123,900)
Balta ($123,900)
Petrucelle ($123,900)
Parker ($117,300)
Cavarra ($117,300)

Thanks SL

[Money Shot]

Bailey Scott another rookie who should play round 1.

Should be good for a 60 average I think which wouldn’t be too bad for a bench player.

[hawkers65]

Bailey Scott another rookie who should play round 1.

Should be good for a 60 average I think which wouldn’t be too bad for a bench player.

he looks very good, 17 touches and 2 goals in 58% TOG

[RaisyDaisy]

Another great outing for Drew

Has to be a real chance of playing Round 1, and he can comfortably be fielded

F5/6 lock

[frenzy]

Another great outing for Drew

Has to be a real chance of playing Round 1, and he can comfortably be fielded

F5/6 lock

Duursmma was better than ok aswell.  $130k def/mid

[hawkers65]

James Cousins > Sam Walsh. No bias

[hawkers65]

Scrimshaw 12 touches in the first 1/4  :o :o :o He may just get a gig

[Mat0369]

James Cousins > Sam Walsh. No bias

Got both

Scrimshaw 12 touches in the first 1/4  :o :o :o He may just get a gig

He is going nuts!

[hawkers65]

James Cousins > Sam Walsh. No bias

Got both

Scrimshaw 12 touches in the first 1/4  :o :o :o He may just get a gig

He is going nuts!

That stat line from Scrimshaw is actually insane. 12 touches, 7 kicks, 4 marks, 6 contested, 2 clearances and a goal for 53 SC... Thats genuinely crazy numbers. Clarko has done it again