2019 Rookies

[crowls]

Idk how he has pulled a 94 from those stats sheesh but he is getting tempting. Getting Bonner vibes from him tho...

High DE%, 50% of his touches were contested and a goal early in the game. He could turn into a Bonner, but he is essentially an expensive rookie and it gives you flexibility to trade him out if he flops.

Also looked like he was taking the kick ins which was interesting

Would rather pay 80k extra for Brodie Smith, at least we know he's AA quality.

AA - 12 step program for those that start him.

[Bully]

Idk how he has pulled a 94 from those stats sheesh but he is getting tempting. Getting Bonner vibes from him tho...

High DE%, 50% of his touches were contested and a goal early in the game. He could turn into a Bonner, but he is essentially an expensive rookie and it gives you flexibility to trade him out if he flops.

Also looked like he was taking the kick ins which was interesting

Would rather pay 80k extra for Brodie Smith, at least we know he's AA quality.

AA - 12 step program for those that start him.

Compared to Ridley? Happy to have a wager as to who's the better option.

[Mat0369]

You realise one is essentially rookie priced and one is pure mid pricer. It's apples and oranges. It's like saying 'I'd rather spend the extra 80k over Walsh to start Libba'

[Bully]

You realise one is essentially rookie priced and one is pure mid pricer. It's apples and oranges. It's like saying 'I'd rather spend the extra 80k over Walsh to start Libba'

I don't buy this artificial line in the sand reasoning, it's bollocks when you are talking about 80k, Walsh is a rookie but is 100k more than Gibbons. I'd prefer to argue the merits of each position on the field, that is the only logical comparison. When weighing up the merits of Smith I'm tossing up whether or not  I should pay 188k for Collins, to me it comes down to upside & also the possibility I won't have to trade until after the byes. Smith has a great bye too so that is also factored into his starting price, fprm also pretty good in his past 13 games (five tons & seven 90+ scores). I'm also looking at roles on the field & Smith is being touted as a kick out player, think people need to look beyond the stale mid pricer vs rookie debates.

And just to throw a spanner in the works I'm probably not going to pick Walsh as most first year players struggle to hit 75.

[Mat0369]

But you aren't going to start a team full of 22 mid price options or field someone like Gibbons either. You're going to have to make concessions somewhere and that is generally which rookies are worth fielding and how much you're willing to pay for them. Ridley is exactly that. He appears to have a fantasy friendly role, is highly rated internally and has proved he can put up points the last couple of games.

For the record, I currently have Smith at D3 with Roberton, Ridley, Collins on the field. I don't think Smith will turn into a keeper, but he is a decent stepping stone at a position you can afford to pick a guy that will average 85.

[Bully]

But you aren't going to start a team full of 22 mid price options or field someone like Gibbons either. You're going to have to make concessions somewhere and that is generally which rookies are worth fielding and how much you're willing to pay for them. Ridley is exactly that. He appears to have a fantasy friendly role, is highly rated internally and has proved he can put up points the last couple of games.

For the record, I currently have Smith at D3 with Roberton, Ridley, Collins on the field. I don't think Smith will turn into a keeper, but he is a decent stepping stone at a position you can afford to pick a guy that will average 85.

We're pretty much on the same page only different structures, I'm playing Roberton at D5 & Clark at D6, feeling content with that set up for the moment.

[crowls]

But you aren't going to start a team full of 22 mid price options or field someone like Gibbons either. You're going to have to make concessions somewhere and that is generally which rookies are worth fielding and how much you're willing to pay for them. Ridley is exactly that. He appears to have a fantasy friendly role, is highly rated internally and has proved he can put up points the last couple of games.

For the record, I currently have Smith at D3 with Roberton, Ridley, Collins on the field. I don't think Smith will turn into a keeper, but he is a decent stepping stone at a position you can afford to pick a guy that will average 85.

that makes sense, and the def is a spot where it pays not to overpay at the start of the year.  those that are seeing smith as a keeper are most likely to be disappointed.    ridley and smith are similar options.   higher point scoring stepping stones.   will the points per $ be value compared to a lower priced rookie.  with smith there is also the potential for another AA year and he ends up a keeper.   my opinion is no.   i have roberton, greene and libba atm and hoping two of them become keepers.   doesnt mean smith is a bad pick it depends on what you are expecting and paying for.

[RaisyDaisy]

I don't mind the Smith selection, can certainly understand the reasoning behind it but I'm not picking him simply because I don't want to get stuck with too many mid pricers

It's all good and well to say you'll upgrade him, he's a stepping stone etc, but the reality is that during the actual season you're going to have injuries to deal with, as well as upgrading rookies to prems, and with just 2 trades a week, if he (or any other mid pricer) is putting up 80ish you're going to keep him because getting a rookie off field is more of a priority

Fast forward to the business end of the season and you've still got that mid pricer because you've been upgrading and dealing with injuries, and by then it's too late, you're already too far behind having settled for their mid price average all season because you had other priorities

And that's why I only pick mid pricers that I hope will turn into keepers.

Back on topic though, I cannot see the appeal of Ridley at all

He scores well, but his JS will always be questionable and he's way too expensive for someone with uncertain JS, not to mention he'll take much longer to make just as much cash as someone 100k cheaper will. He's more expensive than Walsh! No chance I'd start him

[batt]

You realise one is essentially rookie priced and one is pure mid pricer. It's apples and oranges. It's like saying 'I'd rather spend the extra 80k over Walsh to start Libba'

I don't buy this artificial line in the sand reasoning, it's bollocks when you are talking about 80k, Walsh is a rookie but is 100k more than Gibbons. I'd prefer to argue the merits of each position on the field, that is the only logical comparison. When weighing up the merits of Smith I'm tossing up whether or not  I should pay 188k for Collins, to me it comes down to upside & also the possibility I won't have to trade until after the byes. Smith has a great bye too so that is also factored into his starting price, fprm also pretty good in his past 13 games (five tons & seven 90+ scores). I'm also looking at roles on the field & Smith is being touted as a kick out player, think people need to look beyond the stale mid pricer vs rookie debates.

And just to throw a spanner in the works I'm probably not going to pick Walsh as most first year players struggle to hit 75.

Well it's a line in the sand because at $200k you're looking for a $200k profit.

At $300k a $200k profit is a low end keeper.

A $300k mid pricer that makes $150k is a failure because of the opportunity cost.  Not the same story for a $200k rookie - you can live with a $150k profit, particularly if they are a popular pick.

[Money Shot]

With Ridley performing well in two games he is definitely coming into my considerations.

What role has he played in both games?

[Mat0369]

With Ridley performing well in two games he is definitely coming into my considerations.

What role has he played in both games?

Sweeping at HB and taking some of the kickins

[Money Shot]

With Ridley performing well in two games he is definitely coming into my considerations.

What role has he played in both games?

Sweeping at HB and taking some of the kickins

Great position to score in but Essendon have so many of those types. I’ll pass. Could also be a Bonner 2.0

[Bully]

You realise one is essentially rookie priced and one is pure mid pricer. It's apples and oranges. It's like saying 'I'd rather spend the extra 80k over Walsh to start Libba'

I don't buy this artificial line in the sand reasoning, it's bollocks when you are talking about 80k, Walsh is a rookie but is 100k more than Gibbons. I'd prefer to argue the merits of each position on the field, that is the only logical comparison. When weighing up the merits of Smith I'm tossing up whether or not  I should pay 188k for Collins, to me it comes down to upside & also the possibility I won't have to trade until after the byes. Smith has a great bye too so that is also factored into his starting price, fprm also pretty good in his past 13 games (five tons & seven 90+ scores). I'm also looking at roles on the field & Smith is being touted as a kick out player, think people need to look beyond the stale mid pricer vs rookie debates.

And just to throw a spanner in the works I'm probably not going to pick Walsh as most first year players struggle to hit 75.

Well it's a line in the sand because at $200k you're looking for a $200k profit.

At $300k a $200k profit is a low end keeper.

A $300k mid pricer that makes $150k is a failure because of the opportunity cost.  Not the same story for a $200k rookie - you can live with a $150k profit, particularly if they are a popular pick.

Think you will find very few rookies/mid pricers make 200k profit, 150k more realistic. When I take Smith for example, I can see his ceiling will be in the 450k-500k range, he has hit that mark pretty much every season. The real question is when, given he's a high standard deviation player that could work out ie. around the byes, or it could be poor timing & I'm stuck with him indefinitely. That is the risk I'm willing to take because I'd rather see who emerges as a top 6 mid.

[Holz]

You realise one is essentially rookie priced and one is pure mid pricer. It's apples and oranges. It's like saying 'I'd rather spend the extra 80k over Walsh to start Libba'

I don't buy this artificial line in the sand reasoning, it's bollocks when you are talking about 80k, Walsh is a rookie but is 100k more than Gibbons. I'd prefer to argue the merits of each position on the field, that is the only logical comparison. When weighing up the merits of Smith I'm tossing up whether or not  I should pay 188k for Collins, to me it comes down to upside & also the possibility I won't have to trade until after the byes. Smith has a great bye too so that is also factored into his starting price, fprm also pretty good in his past 13 games (five tons & seven 90+ scores). I'm also looking at roles on the field & Smith is being touted as a kick out player, think people need to look beyond the stale mid pricer vs rookie debates.

And just to throw a spanner in the works I'm probably not going to pick Walsh as most first year players struggle to hit 75.

Well it's a line in the sand because at $200k you're looking for a $200k profit.

At $300k a $200k profit is a low end keeper.

A $300k mid pricer that makes $150k is a failure because of the opportunity cost.  Not the same story for a $200k rookie - you can live with a $150k profit, particularly if they are a popular pick.

Think you will find very few rookies/mid pricers make 200k profit, 150k more realistic. When I take Smith for example, I can see his ceiling will be in the 450k-500k range, he has hit that mark pretty much every season. The real question is when, given he's a high standard deviation player that could work out ie. around the byes, or it could be poor timing & I'm stuck with him indefinitely. That is the risk I'm willing to take because I'd rather see who emerges as a top 6 mid.

a 80 player is valued at 435k and players dont reach that value due to the magic number and how the rolling average works. So if he puts up 80ish then he will likely make less then 100k.

For Brad Crouch if he goes 95 then thats a value of 520k so if he does that he will go up around 80k.

[Bully]

You realise one is essentially rookie priced and one is pure mid pricer. It's apples and oranges. It's like saying 'I'd rather spend the extra 80k over Walsh to start Libba'

I don't buy this artificial line in the sand reasoning, it's bollocks when you are talking about 80k, Walsh is a rookie but is 100k more than Gibbons. I'd prefer to argue the merits of each position on the field, that is the only logical comparison. When weighing up the merits of Smith I'm tossing up whether or not  I should pay 188k for Collins, to me it comes down to upside & also the possibility I won't have to trade until after the byes. Smith has a great bye too so that is also factored into his starting price, fprm also pretty good in his past 13 games (five tons & seven 90+ scores). I'm also looking at roles on the field & Smith is being touted as a kick out player, think people need to look beyond the stale mid pricer vs rookie debates.

And just to throw a spanner in the works I'm probably not going to pick Walsh as most first year players struggle to hit 75.

Well it's a line in the sand because at $200k you're looking for a $200k profit.

At $300k a $200k profit is a low end keeper.

A $300k mid pricer that makes $150k is a failure because of the opportunity cost.  Not the same story for a $200k rookie - you can live with a $150k profit, particularly if they are a popular pick.

Think you will find very few rookies/mid pricers make 200k profit, 150k more realistic. When I take Smith for example, I can see his ceiling will be in the 450k-500k range, he has hit that mark pretty much every season. The real question is when, given he's a high standard deviation player that could work out ie. around the byes, or it could be poor timing & I'm stuck with him indefinitely. That is the risk I'm willing to take because I'd rather see who emerges as a top 6 mid.

a 80 player is valued at 435k and players dont reach that value due to the magic number and how the rolling average works. So if he puts up 80ish then he will likely make less then 100k.

For Brad Crouch if he goes 95 then thats a value of 520k so if he does that he will go up around 80k.

Smith is a high standard deviation player, he is also a confidence player who can have some decent stretches.

2017 (round 12-21) - 114, 60, 108, 91, 77, 80, 127, 91, 125
2016 (round 1-6) - 94, 86, 107, 65, 87, 82
2015 (round 17-22) - 83, 64, 101, 76, 108, 126
2014 (round 7-14) - 138, 102, 67, 123, 98, 133, 89

I don't think it's a question of' 'if' he'll hit 450k, it's more about when he does it. Given he looks to be in pretty good form I'm rolling the dice & hopefully by the round 14 bye he'll be an easy sideways trade to a top 6 defender.